turn of the tides, four years on...

[zhihau]

It has been four years since oppositions taken over AJ GRC & PE SMC, not forgetting the WP stronghold in HG SMC. In summary, the tide against the MIW will continue to push them out of power, slowly but surely.

A quick breakdown on the factors affecting the choices the electorate will make at the polls:
1. Over-population
2. Unreliable public transport
3. Rising costs of living (HDB being the main culprit, COE being the next, followed by ERP and F&B. Interestingly, tuition costs crept into this list too)
4. Poorer quality of life as a result of poor work/life balance
5. Old fart is dead

through out my numerous kopi sessions around the island, these are 5 key areas highlighted frequently across all strata. the over-paid ministars are mentioned predominantly by folks in the middle-upper class and the middle-lower class folks were more preoccupied with keeping up the rest of the pack without dropping into the lower rungs of the society.

Unless there is a major shift in the socio-economic & immigration policies, the number 1 factor that will contribute to PAP's demise is over-population.

 

[neddy]

Don't worry. PAP will win big in both erections and elections.
Why.

The fear factor is still there.

FEAR of PAP
FEAR of losing job without PAP
FEAR of uncertain future with fickle minded inexperienced Opposition.
FEAR of being worse off because of too many Oppositions delaying parliament proceedings.

There has never been a change of govt and never will be until the God-son step down.

 

[po2wq]

... Unless there is a major shift in the socio-economic & immigration policies, the number 1 factor that will contribute to PAP's demise is over-population.

over population? ... gud wat! ... flat price go up ... sinkies feel so rich their flats now cost so much mor ...

 

[zhihau]

The fear factor is still there.

PAP might win, pegged at 57% of the valid votes, +/- 3%.

 

[zhihau]

sinkies feel so rich their flats now cost so much mor ...

Teehee... If everyone is selling, who's buying?

 

[3_M]

PAP might win, pegged at 57% of the valid votes, +/- 3%.

Sorry for being a wet blanket but I for one think other than WP, the rest will perform worse than ge11. My guess is it 63% for pap

 

[wwabbit]

Sorry for being a wet blanket but I for one think other than WP, the rest will perform worse than ge11. My guess is it 63% for pap

This is actually good. If WP performs better and all the rest perform worse, the PAP will end up losing even more seats, even with 63%

 

[po2wq]

Teehee... If everyone is selling, who's buying?

sinkies selling? ... dey cant! ...

but juz like cpf moni, dey c ze lumpar go up dey feel song-song, dey feel dey verl rich, dey happy oredi ...

 

[zhihau]

The fear factor is still there

The last I checked, the younger group of voters don't give a flying fuck about the PAP. Looking at the profile of our voters, these young voters constitute some 5% of the total votes.

Those between 25-30 constitute another 5%, those 30-40 about 10%, those 40-50 about 15%, those 50-60 about 40%, those 70 and above about 25%.

Those PAP-loyalists are those whom had seen the transformation of Singapore and are grateful, i.e. >70 but there are exceptions where they're only loyal to LKY and the pioneer batch of leaders but they despise the current batch of leaders.

For the 50-60 group, high ranking civil servants plus women folk tend to give their vote to the incumbent. The rest are hardcore anti-PAP, fence sitters are few and far between.

For the 40-50 group, most white collared females give their votes to the incumbent, blue collared females are the fence sitters. Most of the business-man tend to give their votes to the incumbent, the rest of the PAP votes come from those RC porlumpars. Else other males give their votes to oppositions.

For the 30-40 group, you see either staunch PAP supporters or staunch opposition supporters, reason being simple: they grew up receiving their education post independence, seen how the PAP got rotten. Some are grateful, others not.

For the 25-30 group, they have voted at least once or twice and are willing to give the oppositions a chance. Some are voting opposition not because they like them, they simply dislike the current PAP policies.

For the first time voters, I wouldn't be surprised that the large majority would like to see a change in Garhmen. Fear factor? The fall of AJ-GRC, the results of the PE, by-election in HG-SMC & PE-SMC have clearly shown that fear factor is as dead as LKY.

 

[zhihau]

Sorry for being a wet blanket but...

The SMRT incident shall drive the PAP votes lower, it's on the right track

 

[zhihau]

dey feel dey verl rich, dey happy oredi ...

Wif CPF Life and Medishield Life, dey woon feel lich at all now... Teehee...

 

[melzp]

PAP might win, pegged at 57% of the valid votes, +/- 3%.

Thr FEAR is the low opposition calibre in the WP; who are fearful
of the PAP and not fiery persistent enough for what they speak out.

 

[PoliticalDialogue]

Sorry for being a wet blanket but I for one think other than WP, the rest will perform worse than ge11. My guess is it 63% for pap

This is quite possible. As I've said a few times publicly, there is a real possibility that the PAP's popular vote might edge up even as WP snags more seats.
A lot of the minor parties have yet to get a grip on reality. Just because WP made a breakthrough in 2011 does not mean everyone else can achieve the same.
It took almost 4 decades for the electorate to get comfortable to having more than just a handful of opposition members in Parliament, and now some people think it will so easily become a multi-party parliamentary system?

 

[zhihau]

who are fearful of the PAP and not fiery persistent enough for what they speak out

None had the fire in the belly like the late JBJ... :o:o:o

 

[zhihau]

It took almost 4 decades for the electorate to get comfortable to having more than just a handful of opposition members in Parliament, and now some people think it will so easily become a multi-party parliamentary system?

It is not easy to achieve a working coalition government like the Swiss, I hope to see more oppositions making in-roads into the Parliament. Biologists are baffled by the Cambrian explosion too

 

[melzp]

None had the fire in the belly like the late JBJ... :o:o:o

Oh, you notice that too........puppets at wayang only.

Disappointment to the PAP as WP not good enough to spar.

 

[zhihau]

Oh, you notice that too.

I miss those rally speeches made by JBJ and Francis Seow.

 

[3_M]

This is quite possible. As I've said a few times publicly, there is a real possibility that the PAP's popular vote might edge up even as WP snags more seats.
A lot of the minor parties have yet to get a grip on reality. Just because WP made a breakthrough in 2011 does not mean everyone else can achieve the same.
It took almost 4 decades for the electorate to get comfortable to having more than just a handful of opposition members in Parliament, and now some people think it will so easily become a multi-party parliamentary system?

I always think it will be easier to sell voters the concept of 2-party system after decades of one-party rule. Multi-party system is too high of a threshold to gain public acceptance so much so middle ground will likely get cold feet if they sense there is a possibility this might materialized. Unfortunately the fragmented state of opposition make it difficult for WP to sell this concept. PAP will likely capitalise on this to remind voters the downside of having multiple parties in parliament. This coming GE will more or less confirm if we are heading towards a 2 party system or status quo.

 

[zhihau]

I always think it will be easier to sell voters the concept of 2-party system after decades of one-party rule.

Folks got hitched in the past through arranged marriage and match making. This current generation are chasing their love of their lives

 

[3_M]

The SMRT incident shall drive the PAP votes lower, it's on the right track

It will affect some votes but won't be enough to tilt the balance. Reason is simple, voting for opposition will unlikely resolve the issue. And the problem with oppositions are they can only depend on public anger to win votes but could hardly attract voters base on their own track record and policies. That is to say the main thing that entice voters to cast their votes for opposition are the push factors rather than pull factors.

So when ground sentiment improves, opposition will be at the losing end.