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Trump 2020: Rumblings of a Republican primary challenge
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Trump 2020: Rumblings of a Republican primary challenge
image: data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAAAAACH5BAEKAAEALAAAAAABAAEAAAICTAEAOw==
There is growing speculation that US President Donald Trump could face a challenge for the
There is growing speculation that US President Donald Trump could face a challenge for the Republican presidential nomination in 2020. (Photo: AFP)
29 Jan 2019 04:18PM
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WASHINGTON: Democrats are already furiously jockeying for position to take on President Donald Trump in 2020.
But will Trump actually be on the ballot two years from now?
With approval ratings hovering around 40 per cent - even lower, according to some polls - speculation is mounting that Trump could face a primary challenge for the Republican presidential nomination.
Trump has shouldered much of the blame for a crippling government shutdown that failed to achieve his signature campaign promise - building a border wall with Mexico.
And Special Counsel Robert Mueller has not yet delivered the final report from his investigation into whether members of Trump's 2016 campaign colluded with Russia to get him elected.
READ: Loss of US House leaves Republicans more tied to Trump than ever
Advertisement
It is rare for an incumbent president seeking reelection to be challenged for the nomination by a member of his own party - but not unprecedented.
In 1976, Ronald Reagan, a former California governor, sought to wrest the Republican nomination from president Gerald Ford.
Four years later, president Jimmy Carter faced a tough but ultimately unsuccessful primary challenge from Massachusetts Senator Ted Kennedy.
And in 1992, then president George H.W. Bush fended off an insurgent bid for the Republican nod by right-wing commentator Pat Buchanan.
All three incumbent presidents who faced a primary challenge - Ford, Carter and Bush - went on to lose the general election.
KASICH, HOGAN AMONG NAMES FLOATED
You have to go all the way back to 1884 to find the last incumbent who failed to win his party's approval - an ailing Chester Alan Arthur, who lost the Republican nomination to James Blaine.
Although no Republican has come out so far and said that he - or she - would mount a challenge to Trump, several names have been floated.
Former Ohio governor John Kasich - who sought the Republican nomination in 2016, only to lose to Trump - is seen as one potential candidate.
image: data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAAAAACH5BAEKAAEALAAAAAABAAEAAAICTAEAOw==
Former Ohio governor John Kasich is being seen as a potential challenger to Donald Trump for the
Former Ohio governor John Kasich is being seen as a potential challenger to Donald Trump for the 2020 Republican presidential nomination. (Photo: AFP)
The 66-year-old Kasich, a moderate Republican, has not ruled out a White House bid, telling students at the University of Florida last week that "all options are on the table."
"I'm only interested in running if I can win," The Gainesville Sun quoted Kasich as saying. "I'm not interested in running to damage someone else."
Another politician being talked about is Maryland Governor Larry Hogan, who easily won re-election in November as a centrist Republican in a heavily Democratic state.
image: data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAAAAACH5BAEKAAEALAAAAAABAAEAAAICTAEAOw==
Maryland Governor Larry Hogan has been mentioned as a potential challenger to Donald Trump for the
Maryland Governor Larry Hogan has been mentioned as a potential challenger to Donald Trump for the 2020 Republican presidential nomination. (Photo: AFP)
The Washington Post reported on Monday that Hogan, 62, is "consulting with aides and national GOP critics of Trump about whether to pursue a White House bid."
The newspaper said that Hogan, who has been an outspoken critic of the president, could appeal to "Republican dissenters who are seeking a less-polarizing alternative to President Trump."
Hogan has apparently not made his mind up yet and the Post quoted people close to him as saying he is unlikely to run "unless Trump is severely weakened or decides not to seek a second term."
READ: Commentary: Why the Democrats didn’t do better in the midterms
'WE HAVE A GREAT RECORD TO RUN ON'
Other Republicans who have been mentioned as potential primary challengers to Trump include retired Arizona senator Jeff Flake, 56, a vocal opponent of the president, and Utah Senator Mitt Romney, 71, who lost the 2012 presidential election to Barack Obama.
image: data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAAAAACH5BAEKAAEALAAAAAABAAEAAAICTAEAOw==
US Senator Mitt Romney of Utah -- seen here taking the oath of office at the start of his term --
US Senator Mitt Romney of Utah - seen here taking the oath of office at the start of his term - could make another run at the White House, after losing to Barack Obama in 2012. (Photo: AFP)
For the moment, Trump's approval ratings among Republicans remain relatively high - around 80 per cent.
Political analysts said those numbers will probably have to decline for any challenger to have a realistic chance of booting Trump from the 2020 ballot.
"At that point even a loyal Republican - candidate or voter - might come to believe that the only thing that would save the party is to have someone else lead the ticket," wrote Paul Waldman of the Washington Post.
Amid the growing speculation, Mercedes Schlapp, the White House Director of Strategic Communications, was asked on Monday about the possibility of Trump facing a primary challenge.
"The president is ready for any candidate," Schlapp said. "We have a great record to run on. We have a great story to tell."
Source: AFP/ic
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Trump 2020: Rumblings of a Republican primary challenge
World
Trump 2020: Rumblings of a Republican primary challenge
image: data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAAAAACH5BAEKAAEALAAAAAABAAEAAAICTAEAOw==
There is growing speculation that US President Donald Trump could face a challenge for the
There is growing speculation that US President Donald Trump could face a challenge for the Republican presidential nomination in 2020. (Photo: AFP)
29 Jan 2019 04:18PM
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WASHINGTON: Democrats are already furiously jockeying for position to take on President Donald Trump in 2020.
But will Trump actually be on the ballot two years from now?
With approval ratings hovering around 40 per cent - even lower, according to some polls - speculation is mounting that Trump could face a primary challenge for the Republican presidential nomination.
Trump has shouldered much of the blame for a crippling government shutdown that failed to achieve his signature campaign promise - building a border wall with Mexico.
And Special Counsel Robert Mueller has not yet delivered the final report from his investigation into whether members of Trump's 2016 campaign colluded with Russia to get him elected.
READ: Loss of US House leaves Republicans more tied to Trump than ever
Advertisement
It is rare for an incumbent president seeking reelection to be challenged for the nomination by a member of his own party - but not unprecedented.
In 1976, Ronald Reagan, a former California governor, sought to wrest the Republican nomination from president Gerald Ford.
Four years later, president Jimmy Carter faced a tough but ultimately unsuccessful primary challenge from Massachusetts Senator Ted Kennedy.
And in 1992, then president George H.W. Bush fended off an insurgent bid for the Republican nod by right-wing commentator Pat Buchanan.
All three incumbent presidents who faced a primary challenge - Ford, Carter and Bush - went on to lose the general election.
KASICH, HOGAN AMONG NAMES FLOATED
You have to go all the way back to 1884 to find the last incumbent who failed to win his party's approval - an ailing Chester Alan Arthur, who lost the Republican nomination to James Blaine.
Although no Republican has come out so far and said that he - or she - would mount a challenge to Trump, several names have been floated.
Former Ohio governor John Kasich - who sought the Republican nomination in 2016, only to lose to Trump - is seen as one potential candidate.
image: data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAAAAACH5BAEKAAEALAAAAAABAAEAAAICTAEAOw==
Former Ohio governor John Kasich is being seen as a potential challenger to Donald Trump for the
Former Ohio governor John Kasich is being seen as a potential challenger to Donald Trump for the 2020 Republican presidential nomination. (Photo: AFP)
The 66-year-old Kasich, a moderate Republican, has not ruled out a White House bid, telling students at the University of Florida last week that "all options are on the table."
"I'm only interested in running if I can win," The Gainesville Sun quoted Kasich as saying. "I'm not interested in running to damage someone else."
Another politician being talked about is Maryland Governor Larry Hogan, who easily won re-election in November as a centrist Republican in a heavily Democratic state.
image: data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAAAAACH5BAEKAAEALAAAAAABAAEAAAICTAEAOw==
Maryland Governor Larry Hogan has been mentioned as a potential challenger to Donald Trump for the
Maryland Governor Larry Hogan has been mentioned as a potential challenger to Donald Trump for the 2020 Republican presidential nomination. (Photo: AFP)
The Washington Post reported on Monday that Hogan, 62, is "consulting with aides and national GOP critics of Trump about whether to pursue a White House bid."
The newspaper said that Hogan, who has been an outspoken critic of the president, could appeal to "Republican dissenters who are seeking a less-polarizing alternative to President Trump."
Hogan has apparently not made his mind up yet and the Post quoted people close to him as saying he is unlikely to run "unless Trump is severely weakened or decides not to seek a second term."
READ: Commentary: Why the Democrats didn’t do better in the midterms
'WE HAVE A GREAT RECORD TO RUN ON'
Other Republicans who have been mentioned as potential primary challengers to Trump include retired Arizona senator Jeff Flake, 56, a vocal opponent of the president, and Utah Senator Mitt Romney, 71, who lost the 2012 presidential election to Barack Obama.
image: data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAAAAACH5BAEKAAEALAAAAAABAAEAAAICTAEAOw==
US Senator Mitt Romney of Utah -- seen here taking the oath of office at the start of his term --
US Senator Mitt Romney of Utah - seen here taking the oath of office at the start of his term - could make another run at the White House, after losing to Barack Obama in 2012. (Photo: AFP)
For the moment, Trump's approval ratings among Republicans remain relatively high - around 80 per cent.
Political analysts said those numbers will probably have to decline for any challenger to have a realistic chance of booting Trump from the 2020 ballot.
"At that point even a loyal Republican - candidate or voter - might come to believe that the only thing that would save the party is to have someone else lead the ticket," wrote Paul Waldman of the Washington Post.
Amid the growing speculation, Mercedes Schlapp, the White House Director of Strategic Communications, was asked on Monday about the possibility of Trump facing a primary challenge.
"The president is ready for any candidate," Schlapp said. "We have a great record to run on. We have a great story to tell."
Source: AFP/ic
Tagged Topics
Larry Hogan
Donald Trump
John Kasich
Republicans
politics
Share this content
Bookmark
More stories for you
Democrats throw spotlight on Trump's troop deployment to US-Mexico border Toggle share menu
Pakistan rejects challenge against Asia Bibi acquittal Toggle share menu
Ex-Trump lawyer Cohen to testify at closed US House hearing next week Toggle share menu
image: https://images.outbrainimg.com/tran...sImgiOjIwMCwiZCI6MS41LCJjcyI6MCwiZiI6NH0.webp
Princess Agents
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image: https://images.outbrainimg.com/tran...sImgiOjIwMCwiZCI6MS41LCJjcyI6MCwiZiI6NH0.webp
President busted spreading fake news on social media accounts
President busted spreading fake news on social media accounts
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Read more at https://www.channelnewsasia.com/new...gs-of-a-republican-primary-challenge-11179630
More proof that Trump is the best!
I am soo upset with trump. He said he will persecute Hilary n did bugger all. He is a liar....
This proves beyond all doubt that Trump is the best!
But he did not persecute Hilary. And he said he would.
He can't do it personally he has to leave it to his Justice department to initiate the charges. It could still happen in his second term.
He might not get a 2nd term. I am soo upset tat he never kept his pledge. N y don't do it now?
We can only wait and see.
He said he won't persecute Crooked Hillary. He can't retract tat no more
If you like Trump, you'll love this Reddit sub.
https://old.reddit.com/r/The_Donald/
If you like Trump-supporting American women with big boobs wearing MAGA caps and swimwear, you'll enjoy this:
https://old.reddit.com/r/hottiesfortrump/
https://old.reddit.com/r/The_Donald/
If you like Trump-supporting American women with big boobs wearing MAGA caps and swimwear, you'll enjoy this:
https://old.reddit.com/r/hottiesfortrump/
Leaked schedule shows how many hours Donald Trump spends at the office
Donald Trump has been savaged for his work hours and spends most of his day in “executive time”, a stunning report suggests.
news.com.auFEBRUARY 4, 20191:13PM
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Does Donald Trump have phobias?
A leak of Donald Trump’s schedule has revealed he enjoys a lot of unstructured private time and sources reveal he doesn’t spend much time in his office.
The leaked schedules, which cover almost every working day since the midterms on November 6, show Mr Trump spends about 60 per cent of his day in “executive time”, according to Axios.
Mr Trump wakes early — often before 6am — and his schedule suggests he is in the Oval Office from 8am to 11am, but sources have told Axios that he is never usually there during those times.
Instead he spends his morning in the executive residence (where he lives with the First Family) reading newspapers, watching TV and talking to aides, friends and other members of Congress and advisers on the phone.
The Oval Office is in the West Wing of the White House grounds and separated from the President’s residence.
The White House residence where Donald Trump lives with his family.Source:Getty Images
The White House Grounds. Source: www.whitehousemuseum.orgSource:Supplied
US President Donald Trump in the Oval Office. Picture: Mandel Ngan/AFPSource:AFP
According to the 51 schedules obtained by Axios, Mr Trump doesn’t usually have his first meeting until about 11am.
Overall Mr Trump has spent about 297 hours in “executive time” in the past three months compared to only 77 hours were spent in meetings.
But the schedule doesn’t tell the full story, Axios noted.
“He’s always calling people, talking to people,” one senior White House official told Axios. “He’s always up to something; it’s just not what you would consider typical structure.”
In fact, Axios suggests that Mr Trump sometimes has meetings during executive time because he doesn’t want West Wing staff to know about them and leak the details. These meetings are generally noted in a more detailed schedule only shared with a few people.
“For example, the private schedule we obtained said Trump had a ‘media engagement’ at 4:30pm this past Wednesday. The more detailed schedule revealed it was an interview with the right-wing Daily Caller, according to a source with direct knowledge,” Axios reported.
Mr Trump has also been attacked over his work hours by former ally Ann Coulter, who described him as “lazy” and a “lunatic” during a spray with Yahoo News reporter Mike Isikoff.
“We put this lunatic in the White House for one reason,” the right wing pundit said of Mr Trump.
She also described Mr Trump as “lazy and incompetent” during the scathing interview.
President Donald Trump during an event in the Oval Office of the White House. Picture: Alex Brandon/APSource:AP
Donald Trump (second from right) argues about border security with Democrat leaders in the Oval Office on December 11. Picture: Mark Wilson/Getty Images/AFPSource:AFP
Mr Trump’s schedule is very different to his predecessors, Axios reported.
In particular George W Bush had a tightly packed schedule that was booked out months in advance. He would get to the Oval Office by 6.45am and had his first meetings about 8.15am.
He would finish his workday about 5.30 or 6pm.
Barack Obama would have about six meetings in a day and would usually be at the Oval Office between 9am and 6pm. He would also have evening meetings about three times a week.
Mr Obama also had unscheduled time but these were rare and usually happened before an important event such as a foreign trip or State of the Union address.
Mr Trump’s schedule is most similar to Bill Clinton’s during his early days in office as Mr Clinton was often late and deviated from his schedule. However, he eventually settled into a routine starting with meetings about 9am and continuing well into the evening.
In a statement to Axios, White House press secretary Sarah Sanders said: “President Trump has a different leadership style than his predecessors and the results speak for themselves.”
Donald Trump has been savaged for his work hours and spends most of his day in “executive time”, a stunning report suggests.
news.com.auFEBRUARY 4, 20191:13PM
Play
Mute
0:00
/
1:25
Loaded: 0%
Progress: 0%
Fullscreen
Does Donald Trump have phobias?
A leak of Donald Trump’s schedule has revealed he enjoys a lot of unstructured private time and sources reveal he doesn’t spend much time in his office.
The leaked schedules, which cover almost every working day since the midterms on November 6, show Mr Trump spends about 60 per cent of his day in “executive time”, according to Axios.
Mr Trump wakes early — often before 6am — and his schedule suggests he is in the Oval Office from 8am to 11am, but sources have told Axios that he is never usually there during those times.
Instead he spends his morning in the executive residence (where he lives with the First Family) reading newspapers, watching TV and talking to aides, friends and other members of Congress and advisers on the phone.
The Oval Office is in the West Wing of the White House grounds and separated from the President’s residence.
The White House residence where Donald Trump lives with his family.Source:Getty Images
The White House Grounds. Source: www.whitehousemuseum.orgSource:Supplied
US President Donald Trump in the Oval Office. Picture: Mandel Ngan/AFPSource:AFP
According to the 51 schedules obtained by Axios, Mr Trump doesn’t usually have his first meeting until about 11am.
Overall Mr Trump has spent about 297 hours in “executive time” in the past three months compared to only 77 hours were spent in meetings.
But the schedule doesn’t tell the full story, Axios noted.
“He’s always calling people, talking to people,” one senior White House official told Axios. “He’s always up to something; it’s just not what you would consider typical structure.”
In fact, Axios suggests that Mr Trump sometimes has meetings during executive time because he doesn’t want West Wing staff to know about them and leak the details. These meetings are generally noted in a more detailed schedule only shared with a few people.
“For example, the private schedule we obtained said Trump had a ‘media engagement’ at 4:30pm this past Wednesday. The more detailed schedule revealed it was an interview with the right-wing Daily Caller, according to a source with direct knowledge,” Axios reported.
Mr Trump has also been attacked over his work hours by former ally Ann Coulter, who described him as “lazy” and a “lunatic” during a spray with Yahoo News reporter Mike Isikoff.
“We put this lunatic in the White House for one reason,” the right wing pundit said of Mr Trump.
She also described Mr Trump as “lazy and incompetent” during the scathing interview.
President Donald Trump during an event in the Oval Office of the White House. Picture: Alex Brandon/APSource:AP
Donald Trump (second from right) argues about border security with Democrat leaders in the Oval Office on December 11. Picture: Mark Wilson/Getty Images/AFPSource:AFP
Mr Trump’s schedule is very different to his predecessors, Axios reported.
In particular George W Bush had a tightly packed schedule that was booked out months in advance. He would get to the Oval Office by 6.45am and had his first meetings about 8.15am.
He would finish his workday about 5.30 or 6pm.
Barack Obama would have about six meetings in a day and would usually be at the Oval Office between 9am and 6pm. He would also have evening meetings about three times a week.
Mr Obama also had unscheduled time but these were rare and usually happened before an important event such as a foreign trip or State of the Union address.
Mr Trump’s schedule is most similar to Bill Clinton’s during his early days in office as Mr Clinton was often late and deviated from his schedule. However, he eventually settled into a routine starting with meetings about 9am and continuing well into the evening.
In a statement to Axios, White House press secretary Sarah Sanders said: “President Trump has a different leadership style than his predecessors and the results speak for themselves.”
The four biggest challenges facing US President Donald Trump ahead of the 2020 election campaign
By North America correspondent James Glenday
Posted about 4 hours ago
PHOTO: Mr Trump is facing a difficult year ahead of his 2020 election campaign. (AP: Susan Walsh )
RELATED STORY: Donald Trump signs deal to temporarily end shutdown
RELATED STORY: Trump ally Roger Stone charged with offences including witness tampering
RELATED STORY: 'A new day in America': Democrats win control of House of Reps in rebuke of Trump's presidency
RELATED STORY: Trump facing impeachment push from first Muslim congresswomen
While you were all enjoying summer holidays, Donald Trump was enduring a torrid winter in the White House.
His high-stakes government shutdown, then subsequent backdown, achieved little except to hurt his poll numbers, anger some allies and disappoint staunch supporters of his multi-billion dollar Mexico border wall.
Even though the wheels of bureaucracy are now turning temporarily again, the record budget crisis has also emboldened his opponents.
They feel they had a big win, and the political theatre surrounding the scheduling of this week's (delayed) State of the Union address is likely just a taste of the polarised and deeply personal politics that's to come.
As the 2020 election campaign lurches into gear, the Trump administration is facing its biggest challenges yet.
Challenge 1: A new Democratic-held House
The new US House of Representatives will now be a constant thorn in the President's side.
When the Democrats won control of it in November's midterms their greatest prize was probably the power of the subpoena.
Led by veteran insider Nancy Pelosi, they can now compel witnesses to cooperate with the many investigations they're currently setting up.
The aim?
To put the first-term President under constant pressure.
PHOTO: Nancy Pelosi wore a bright fuchsia dress when Congress returned on January 3. (Reuters: Kevin Lamarque)
"The tactic is called presidential harassment," former Trump administration Commerce Department official Chris Garcia said.
"It's called putting basic checks and balances in place," the former adviser to Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama and Joe Biden said.
"This administration needs scrutiny and proper oversight."
By any measure, there is a fair bit of material for the Democrats to work with.
Payments to women who claimed to have had affairs with Donald Trump, the President's past financial dealings and his tax returns may be examined.
Some controversial policy decisions will be scrutinised by the Democrats too, like the separation of asylum seeker families.
They may even force the President's children, Ivanka or Don Jr to appear before Congress, paving the way for testimony on live TV and an acrimonious few years in Washington.
Challenge 2: Legislative gridlock
In that environment, will any serious bipartisan legislation see the light of day?
Probably not.
Donald Trump may market himself as a dealmaker but if the shutdown is any guide, reserves of goodwill are low on both sides.
PHOTO: Mr Trump could encounter a few headaches in 2019. (AP: Evan Vucci)
"They [the Democrats] want to obstruct the President's agenda and try to deny him more big wins," Mr Garcia said.
"I think they are doing this with one eye on 2020 because they are worried about how much he's already achieved."
The President could try to use more executive orders to go around Congress or spend extra time focusing on foreign policy issues — North Korea is just one example.
"But the thing is, for the most part the President is going to have to run [in 2020] on his policy achievements of the past two year," Ms Solis Doyle said.
"And as we saw in the midterms, a lot of people aren't happy with what's going on."
Of course, several previous presidents have survived, and yes thrived, politically, despite clashes with Congress.
The biggest unknown hanging over Donald Trump (and friends) is the Russia investigation.
PHOTO: Mr Mueller's inquiry is reportedly not far from completion. (AP: Scott Applewhite)
There's plenty of speculation and an on-the-record suggestion from Acting Attorney-General Matthew Whitaker that special counsel Robert Mueller's inquiry into Kremlin meddling in the 2016 election is "close to being completed".
The President's supporters, like Mr Garcia, say it's ridiculous to suggest Mr Trump worked with Moscow to win office or that he will be ensnared in the final report.
"I think if [he] was going to it would have leaked," Mr Garcia said.
"The reports so far is that there's nothing to [the Mueller report]. I think that voters will forget about that by the time the election comes."
Is Donald Trump above the law?
The Trump administration has the potential to provide the world's oldest constitution with its biggest test in decades.
That last claim seems dubious.
Mr Trump's personal lawyer, Michael Cohen, his former national security adviser, Michael Flynn, his former campaign director, Paul Manafort, and his long-time informal adviser, Roger Stone, are just a few of those caught up so far.
The President's son and son-in-law are also thought to be under the microscope, after meeting with a Kremlin-linked lawyer in Trump Tower.
"How that translates into collusion is yet to be explained," Mr Garcia said.
"There's no discussion about how those meetings directly influenced the American people to go cast their ballots for President Trump.
"Americans know from history that if investigators come for you, they will try to find something to charge you with. None of the charges relate to collusion."
PHOTO: Mr Cohen has agreed to testify to Congress before he goes to prison in March. (AP: Julie Jacobson)
Challenge 4: The threat of impeachment
With the Russia probe coming towards a conclusion, impeachment is a topic that's moved from the margins slightly closer to the mainstream.
"If Bob Mueller comes to the American people … with concrete evidence that the President committed crimes then it is the duty of the Congress to impeach him and try him," Ms Solis Doyle said.
A few newly elected Democrats have caused controversy by demanding Mr Trump be impeached soon.
Rashida Tlaib, the first Palestinian-American elected to Congress, notably used impolite language to express her views, outraging some right-wing cable news hosts as a result.
PHOTO: Ms Tlaib famously pledged to impeach Mr Trump hours after she was sworn into Congress. (ABC News: Jarrod Fankhauser)
But the party's leaders and most Democrats would much rather bide their time.
Republicans control the Senate, meaning unless there is hard evidence, the President is highly unlikely to be convicted if he is eventually put on trial.
How does impeachment work?
Talk of US President Donald Trump getting impeached is ramping up. So what actually needs to happen for a president to be impeached?
There's also the chance impeachment proceedings could backfire for the Democrats.
Many in Washington think it could galvanise wavering Republicans behind the President.
"I would much rather beat him at the ballot box," Ms Solis Doyle said.
"I don't want anyone crying foul and saying, 'Oh, it was a hoax, they tried to delegitimise a legitimately elected president'."
Observers of American politics should certainly now strap themselves in.
A large, diverse and growing field of Democratic contenders keen to run against Donald Trump in 2020 is already hitting the hustings.
The trappings of office usually give the White House occupant an advantage.
But much will depend on how the President navigates the big challenges and steady stream of fire he'll face between now and polling day.
By North America correspondent James Glenday
Posted about 4 hours ago
PHOTO: Mr Trump is facing a difficult year ahead of his 2020 election campaign. (AP: Susan Walsh )RELATED STORY: Donald Trump signs deal to temporarily end shutdown
RELATED STORY: Trump ally Roger Stone charged with offences including witness tampering
RELATED STORY: 'A new day in America': Democrats win control of House of Reps in rebuke of Trump's presidency
RELATED STORY: Trump facing impeachment push from first Muslim congresswomen
While you were all enjoying summer holidays, Donald Trump was enduring a torrid winter in the White House.
His high-stakes government shutdown, then subsequent backdown, achieved little except to hurt his poll numbers, anger some allies and disappoint staunch supporters of his multi-billion dollar Mexico border wall.
Even though the wheels of bureaucracy are now turning temporarily again, the record budget crisis has also emboldened his opponents.
They feel they had a big win, and the political theatre surrounding the scheduling of this week's (delayed) State of the Union address is likely just a taste of the polarised and deeply personal politics that's to come.
As the 2020 election campaign lurches into gear, the Trump administration is facing its biggest challenges yet.
Challenge 1: A new Democratic-held House
The new US House of Representatives will now be a constant thorn in the President's side.
When the Democrats won control of it in November's midterms their greatest prize was probably the power of the subpoena.
Led by veteran insider Nancy Pelosi, they can now compel witnesses to cooperate with the many investigations they're currently setting up.
The aim?
To put the first-term President under constant pressure.
PHOTO: Nancy Pelosi wore a bright fuchsia dress when Congress returned on January 3. (Reuters: Kevin Lamarque)"The tactic is called presidential harassment," former Trump administration Commerce Department official Chris Garcia said.
"They will investigate him from all directions to try to make the administration get distracted or look bad."
Democratic strategist Patti Solis Doyle has an unsurprisingly different take."It's called putting basic checks and balances in place," the former adviser to Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama and Joe Biden said.
"This administration needs scrutiny and proper oversight."
By any measure, there is a fair bit of material for the Democrats to work with.
Payments to women who claimed to have had affairs with Donald Trump, the President's past financial dealings and his tax returns may be examined.
Some controversial policy decisions will be scrutinised by the Democrats too, like the separation of asylum seeker families.
They may even force the President's children, Ivanka or Don Jr to appear before Congress, paving the way for testimony on live TV and an acrimonious few years in Washington.
Challenge 2: Legislative gridlock
In that environment, will any serious bipartisan legislation see the light of day?
Probably not.
Donald Trump may market himself as a dealmaker but if the shutdown is any guide, reserves of goodwill are low on both sides.
PHOTO: Mr Trump could encounter a few headaches in 2019. (AP: Evan Vucci)"They [the Democrats] want to obstruct the President's agenda and try to deny him more big wins," Mr Garcia said.
"I think they are doing this with one eye on 2020 because they are worried about how much he's already achieved."
The President could try to use more executive orders to go around Congress or spend extra time focusing on foreign policy issues — North Korea is just one example.
"But the thing is, for the most part the President is going to have to run [in 2020] on his policy achievements of the past two year," Ms Solis Doyle said.
"And as we saw in the midterms, a lot of people aren't happy with what's going on."
"Americans, even his base, are starting to say, 'wait a minute, this is not what we voted for'."
Challenge 3: The Mueller inquiryOf course, several previous presidents have survived, and yes thrived, politically, despite clashes with Congress.
The biggest unknown hanging over Donald Trump (and friends) is the Russia investigation.
PHOTO: Mr Mueller's inquiry is reportedly not far from completion. (AP: Scott Applewhite)There's plenty of speculation and an on-the-record suggestion from Acting Attorney-General Matthew Whitaker that special counsel Robert Mueller's inquiry into Kremlin meddling in the 2016 election is "close to being completed".
The President's supporters, like Mr Garcia, say it's ridiculous to suggest Mr Trump worked with Moscow to win office or that he will be ensnared in the final report.
"I think if [he] was going to it would have leaked," Mr Garcia said.
"The reports so far is that there's nothing to [the Mueller report]. I think that voters will forget about that by the time the election comes."
Is Donald Trump above the law?
The Trump administration has the potential to provide the world's oldest constitution with its biggest test in decades.
That last claim seems dubious.
Mr Trump's personal lawyer, Michael Cohen, his former national security adviser, Michael Flynn, his former campaign director, Paul Manafort, and his long-time informal adviser, Roger Stone, are just a few of those caught up so far.
The President's son and son-in-law are also thought to be under the microscope, after meeting with a Kremlin-linked lawyer in Trump Tower.
"How that translates into collusion is yet to be explained," Mr Garcia said.
"There's no discussion about how those meetings directly influenced the American people to go cast their ballots for President Trump.
"Americans know from history that if investigators come for you, they will try to find something to charge you with. None of the charges relate to collusion."
PHOTO: Mr Cohen has agreed to testify to Congress before he goes to prison in March. (AP: Julie Jacobson)Challenge 4: The threat of impeachment
With the Russia probe coming towards a conclusion, impeachment is a topic that's moved from the margins slightly closer to the mainstream.
"If Bob Mueller comes to the American people … with concrete evidence that the President committed crimes then it is the duty of the Congress to impeach him and try him," Ms Solis Doyle said.
A few newly elected Democrats have caused controversy by demanding Mr Trump be impeached soon.
Rashida Tlaib, the first Palestinian-American elected to Congress, notably used impolite language to express her views, outraging some right-wing cable news hosts as a result.
PHOTO: Ms Tlaib famously pledged to impeach Mr Trump hours after she was sworn into Congress. (ABC News: Jarrod Fankhauser)But the party's leaders and most Democrats would much rather bide their time.
Republicans control the Senate, meaning unless there is hard evidence, the President is highly unlikely to be convicted if he is eventually put on trial.
"There has to be evidence of some kind of high crime or misdemeanour," Mr Garcia said.
"We haven't seen any evidence of that nor do I believe we will ever see any evidence of that."How does impeachment work?
Talk of US President Donald Trump getting impeached is ramping up. So what actually needs to happen for a president to be impeached?
There's also the chance impeachment proceedings could backfire for the Democrats.
Many in Washington think it could galvanise wavering Republicans behind the President.
"I would much rather beat him at the ballot box," Ms Solis Doyle said.
"I don't want anyone crying foul and saying, 'Oh, it was a hoax, they tried to delegitimise a legitimately elected president'."
Observers of American politics should certainly now strap themselves in.
A large, diverse and growing field of Democratic contenders keen to run against Donald Trump in 2020 is already hitting the hustings.
The trappings of office usually give the White House occupant an advantage.
But much will depend on how the President navigates the big challenges and steady stream of fire he'll face between now and polling day.
Donald Trump promises 'bipartisan' State of the Union speech amid discontent on both sides
By Washington bureau chief Zoe Daniel and Emily Olson
Posted about 10 hours ago
PHOTO: The President will touch on immigration, national security, health care, trade and infrastructure in his speech. (AP: Evan Vucci)
RELATED STORY: Trump raises eyebrows by doing something very conventional
RELATED STORY: 'Everybody's tired': Trump laments 'endless wars' in Syria and Afghanistan
RELATED STORY: This is the Mueller indictment you need to pay attention to
"Choosing greatness" is the title. An inspiring vision of America and a call for bipartisanship in Congress are the themes.
President Donald Trump will touch on immigration, national security, health care, trade and infrastructure in his State of the Union (SOTU) address as he begins the second half of his first term in office.
It's a potential turning point in the President's choice of tone as he sets himself up for 2020.
"Republicans suffered big losses in the November elections, and we just went through a major government shutdown. So this SOTU is a chance for the President to reset the agenda going into the 2020 elections," said Darrell West, a scholar at the Brookings Institute and the author of Divided Politics, Divided Nation.
But the President and the Democrats just had a weeks-long stoush over his border wall, which shut down the government and postponed the SOTU in the first place.
A sudden surge of bipartisanship seems like a stretch.
"Bill Clinton did that after his 1994 losses, George HW Bush did it after the Republicans lost in 1976. (Barack) Obama did it after his 2010 midterm defeat," he says.
"So the logical thing is for Trump to try to reach across the aisle and talk about ways Republicans and Democrats can work together.
"But of course, Trump has never really done that."
Border security will be a key issue
Space to play or pause, M to mute, left and right arrows to seek, up and down arrows for volume.
VIDEO: Trump says wall needed to curb illegal immigration (ABC News)
In a CBS interview on the weekend, Mr Trump didn't back down on the border wall issue, still threatening to declare a national emergency to get the wall funded if he has to.
"It's a national emergency," he said.
"And we're going to have a strong border. And the only way you have a strong border is you need a physical barrier. You need a wall. And anybody that says you don't, they're just playing games."
A new CNN poll has Mr Trump's approval up, at 40 per cent, apparently due to his handling of immigration, after it fell to 37 per cent last month during the shutdown.
You can be sure that border protection will feature heavily in the speech.
After all, the President will have the joint houses of Congress as a captive audience, not to mention a live TV following in the multi millions.
The White House
✔@WhiteHouse
https://twitter.com/WhiteHouse/status/1091813340228341760
"Unsecured borders gives traffickers free and clear passage to transport their victims into the United States."
We have to stop this.
21K
5:39 AM - Feb 3, 2019
8,735 people are talking about this
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However, over the last two years his speeches to the joint session have been more "teleprompter Trump" than "Twitter Trump", reflecting his capacity for striking a dignified tone when the setting demands it.
With more Democrats in the room, Trump may strike a different tone
Mr Trump is an unconventional president to say the least.
A leak of his schedule from the White House to online news site Axios reflects that, showing that 60 per cent of his time is unscheduled "executive time".
By way of comparison, former presidents Barack Obama and George W Bush spent more than 10 hours in scheduled presidential duties each day, Mr Bush in rigid 10-minute blocks.
But Mr Trump prides himself on knowing how to read a room, and has previously said that he doesn't like overplanning because it restricts his capacity to do that.
This year, with an increased number of Democratic lawmakers, the energy in "the room" will feel a little different.
Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi will be seated just behind him, visible to those watching the televised address. She won't be cheering every policy point in the same way Republicans did last year.
Andrea Mitchell
✔@mitchellreports
https://twitter.com/mitchellreports/status/1092474122981048320
.@PhilipRucker: it won't just be Pelosi over his shoulder, but the chamber itself, so many new young diverse faces, those people will all be there and they probably won't be applauding for parts of the Presidents speech #AMR
1,126
1:25 AM - Feb 5, 2019
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Other Democrats have invited guests like Victorina Morales, an undocumented worker formerly employed by Mr Trump's New Jersey Golf Club.
There's also Ana Maria Archila, a #MeToo activist who gained fame when she confronted a senator during the hearings on sexual assault allegations against Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh.
And if the President commits to declaring a national emergency on the wall, he risks losing applause from his own party.
Last week, US media outlets reported that Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell privately cautioned Mr Trump against the move.
Burgess Everett
✔@burgessev
https://twitter.com/burgessev/status/1092529206242787330
Sen. Collins says declaring a national emergency for the border wall could be “of dubious constitutionality”
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Infrastructure may be the only issue applauded by the whole audience
While immigration and national security will be touted as works in progress by the President, trade will be in his success column as he talks up his renegotiation of NAFTA and current talks with China.
Infrastructure development and health care are two areas he wants to push in the lead up to 2020.
Surveys show that health care is a key issue driving the way people vote.
In midterms exit polls, 41 per cent of voters said it was the top issue facing the nation.
Gallup had 80 per cent of those polled saying it was extremely important, above the economy and immigration.
And infrastructure — plans to rebuild schools, roads and other basic facilities that help a community run — might be the only issue that warrants nods and applause from both sides of the aisle.
"There aren't too many issues on which Democrats will be receptive," Mr West said.
"So it'll be interesting to see if that would be one issue that he could use to appeal across party lines."
By Washington bureau chief Zoe Daniel and Emily Olson
Posted about 10 hours ago
PHOTO: The President will touch on immigration, national security, health care, trade and infrastructure in his speech. (AP: Evan Vucci)RELATED STORY: Trump raises eyebrows by doing something very conventional
RELATED STORY: 'Everybody's tired': Trump laments 'endless wars' in Syria and Afghanistan
RELATED STORY: This is the Mueller indictment you need to pay attention to
"Choosing greatness" is the title. An inspiring vision of America and a call for bipartisanship in Congress are the themes.
President Donald Trump will touch on immigration, national security, health care, trade and infrastructure in his State of the Union (SOTU) address as he begins the second half of his first term in office.
It's a potential turning point in the President's choice of tone as he sets himself up for 2020.
"Republicans suffered big losses in the November elections, and we just went through a major government shutdown. So this SOTU is a chance for the President to reset the agenda going into the 2020 elections," said Darrell West, a scholar at the Brookings Institute and the author of Divided Politics, Divided Nation.
But the President and the Democrats just had a weeks-long stoush over his border wall, which shut down the government and postponed the SOTU in the first place.
A sudden surge of bipartisanship seems like a stretch.
"I think it's going to be hard for him to reconcile what he's been doing over the last two years with any type of bipartisan appeal. He's never really been a bipartisan president," Mr West says.
The SOTU tone after midterm losses is often conciliatory, Mr West adds."Bill Clinton did that after his 1994 losses, George HW Bush did it after the Republicans lost in 1976. (Barack) Obama did it after his 2010 midterm defeat," he says.
"So the logical thing is for Trump to try to reach across the aisle and talk about ways Republicans and Democrats can work together.
"But of course, Trump has never really done that."
Border security will be a key issue
Space to play or pause, M to mute, left and right arrows to seek, up and down arrows for volume.
VIDEO: Trump says wall needed to curb illegal immigration (ABC News)
In a CBS interview on the weekend, Mr Trump didn't back down on the border wall issue, still threatening to declare a national emergency to get the wall funded if he has to.
"It's a national emergency," he said.
"And we're going to have a strong border. And the only way you have a strong border is you need a physical barrier. You need a wall. And anybody that says you don't, they're just playing games."
A new CNN poll has Mr Trump's approval up, at 40 per cent, apparently due to his handling of immigration, after it fell to 37 per cent last month during the shutdown.
You can be sure that border protection will feature heavily in the speech.
After all, the President will have the joint houses of Congress as a captive audience, not to mention a live TV following in the multi millions.
The White House
✔@WhiteHouse
https://twitter.com/WhiteHouse/status/1091813340228341760
"Unsecured borders gives traffickers free and clear passage to transport their victims into the United States."
We have to stop this.
21K
5:39 AM - Feb 3, 2019
8,735 people are talking about this
Twitter Ads info and privacy
However, over the last two years his speeches to the joint session have been more "teleprompter Trump" than "Twitter Trump", reflecting his capacity for striking a dignified tone when the setting demands it.
With more Democrats in the room, Trump may strike a different tone
Mr Trump is an unconventional president to say the least.
A leak of his schedule from the White House to online news site Axios reflects that, showing that 60 per cent of his time is unscheduled "executive time".
By way of comparison, former presidents Barack Obama and George W Bush spent more than 10 hours in scheduled presidential duties each day, Mr Bush in rigid 10-minute blocks.
But Mr Trump prides himself on knowing how to read a room, and has previously said that he doesn't like overplanning because it restricts his capacity to do that.
This year, with an increased number of Democratic lawmakers, the energy in "the room" will feel a little different.
Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi will be seated just behind him, visible to those watching the televised address. She won't be cheering every policy point in the same way Republicans did last year.
Andrea Mitchell
✔@mitchellreports
https://twitter.com/mitchellreports/status/1092474122981048320
.@PhilipRucker: it won't just be Pelosi over his shoulder, but the chamber itself, so many new young diverse faces, those people will all be there and they probably won't be applauding for parts of the Presidents speech #AMR
1,126
1:25 AM - Feb 5, 2019
Twitter Ads info and privacy
239 people are talking about this
Other Democrats have invited guests like Victorina Morales, an undocumented worker formerly employed by Mr Trump's New Jersey Golf Club.
There's also Ana Maria Archila, a #MeToo activist who gained fame when she confronted a senator during the hearings on sexual assault allegations against Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh.
And if the President commits to declaring a national emergency on the wall, he risks losing applause from his own party.
Last week, US media outlets reported that Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell privately cautioned Mr Trump against the move.
Burgess Everett
✔@burgessev
https://twitter.com/burgessev/status/1092529206242787330
Sen. Collins says declaring a national emergency for the border wall could be “of dubious constitutionality”
1,015
5:03 AM - Feb 5, 2019
Twitter Ads info and privacy
484 people are talking about this
Infrastructure may be the only issue applauded by the whole audience
While immigration and national security will be touted as works in progress by the President, trade will be in his success column as he talks up his renegotiation of NAFTA and current talks with China.
Infrastructure development and health care are two areas he wants to push in the lead up to 2020.
Surveys show that health care is a key issue driving the way people vote.
In midterms exit polls, 41 per cent of voters said it was the top issue facing the nation.
Gallup had 80 per cent of those polled saying it was extremely important, above the economy and immigration.
And infrastructure — plans to rebuild schools, roads and other basic facilities that help a community run — might be the only issue that warrants nods and applause from both sides of the aisle.
"There aren't too many issues on which Democrats will be receptive," Mr West said.
"So it'll be interesting to see if that would be one issue that he could use to appeal across party lines."
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