Ansley Ng
[email protected]:
IN what an expert called a “doomsday prediction”, two economists say Singapore may lose 300,000 jobs by next year, of which two-thirds would belong to foreigners.
.
As the Republic grapples with what is likely to be its worst recession, “recent surveys all point to many more firms planning to fire than hire, a finding backed by anecdotal reports of job cuts by leading firms in their sectors,” said economists Cem Karacadag and Kun Lung Wu of Credit Suisse Group in a report that has raised many eyebrows with its alarming forecast.
.
Credit Suisse had similarly drew attention last May when it issued a deeply bearish outlook for the Singapore property sector and while there was some initial scepticism, subsequent data have largely borne out the accuracy of its call.
.
But analysts Today spoke to — though agreeing that a higher-than-before number of jobs will be lost this year on the back of the increasingly grim economic outlook — felt that the Credit Suisse jobs report was too pessimistic. Barclays Capital economist Leong Wai Ho said: “I think we have already seen the nature of the severity, I don’t think we will get much worse than that.”
.
Mr Leong predicted retrenchments to reach around 35,000, with the unemployment rate to peak at the second-quarter of this year at just over 5 per cent.
.
The Credit Suisse report gave a sectoral breakdown of its headline 300,000 number: About 160,000 positions will be shed in the services industry; 100,000 in manufacturing; and another 40,000 in the construction industry. “As harsh as our assumptions may seem, they only imply that the economy gives up all of the jobs it created in 2008 and a portion of the new jobs in 2007,” the Credit Suisse economists wrote.
.
Two out of three of the jobs lost would be held by foreigners and permanentresidents. With the exodus of these foreigners, Singapore’s population will shrink3.3 per cent to 4.68 million next year from 4.84 million now, said Credit Suisse.
.
Real estate experts say the property market — which has already been hit by the fallout of the global financial crisis — will be further buffeted by the repatriation of expatriates as companies downsize.
.
“The first market to be affected would be your residential and your prime residential market, because an immense source of leasing activity comes from foreigners,” saidMr Donald Han, managing director of property consulting firm Cushman and Wakefield.
.
Demand for office and factory space would fall too, due to “a downsizing in office requirements” from multinational companies, he said, although he opined that the Credit Suisse report was a “doomsday prediction”.
.
While agreeing that there will be pressure on prices, Assistant Professor Choy Keen Meng, an economist at the Nanyang Technological University, did not think the higher-paid professionals will leave Singapore in droves. “When they decided to come here, they uprooted with their families and their kids would have gone to school here. They don’t want to interrupt their children’s schooling,” Prof Choy said.
.
.
FOREIGN TALENT TO RETURN?
.
According to the Credit Suisse report, of the 800,000 jobs created between 2004 and the third-quarter of last year, 500,000 were filled by foreigners and permanent residents.
.
So it’s logical that these foreigners bear the initial brunt during this downturn. But will Singapore’s policy to attract foreign talent be undermined and will it be hard to woo foreigners when the economy finally recovers?
.
Citigroup analyst Kit Wei Zheng doesn’t think so. “It’s understood that in Singapore, when you go through a sharp GDP contraction, foreign population will fall. At some point in time, the economy will recover, and population size will increase again,” he said.
.
“Singapore’s a great place to do business so when the cycle picks up, these guys should return,” Mr Leong said.
Ansley Ng
[email protected]:
IN what an expert called a “doomsday prediction”, two economists say Singapore may lose 300,000 jobs by next year, of which two-thirds would belong to foreigners.
.
As the Republic grapples with what is likely to be its worst recession, “recent surveys all point to many more firms planning to fire than hire, a finding backed by anecdotal reports of job cuts by leading firms in their sectors,” said economists Cem Karacadag and Kun Lung Wu of Credit Suisse Group in a report that has raised many eyebrows with its alarming forecast.
.
Credit Suisse had similarly drew attention last May when it issued a deeply bearish outlook for the Singapore property sector and while there was some initial scepticism, subsequent data have largely borne out the accuracy of its call.
.
But analysts Today spoke to — though agreeing that a higher-than-before number of jobs will be lost this year on the back of the increasingly grim economic outlook — felt that the Credit Suisse jobs report was too pessimistic. Barclays Capital economist Leong Wai Ho said: “I think we have already seen the nature of the severity, I don’t think we will get much worse than that.”
.
Mr Leong predicted retrenchments to reach around 35,000, with the unemployment rate to peak at the second-quarter of this year at just over 5 per cent.
.
The Credit Suisse report gave a sectoral breakdown of its headline 300,000 number: About 160,000 positions will be shed in the services industry; 100,000 in manufacturing; and another 40,000 in the construction industry. “As harsh as our assumptions may seem, they only imply that the economy gives up all of the jobs it created in 2008 and a portion of the new jobs in 2007,” the Credit Suisse economists wrote.
.
Two out of three of the jobs lost would be held by foreigners and permanentresidents. With the exodus of these foreigners, Singapore’s population will shrink3.3 per cent to 4.68 million next year from 4.84 million now, said Credit Suisse.
.
Real estate experts say the property market — which has already been hit by the fallout of the global financial crisis — will be further buffeted by the repatriation of expatriates as companies downsize.
.
“The first market to be affected would be your residential and your prime residential market, because an immense source of leasing activity comes from foreigners,” saidMr Donald Han, managing director of property consulting firm Cushman and Wakefield.
.
Demand for office and factory space would fall too, due to “a downsizing in office requirements” from multinational companies, he said, although he opined that the Credit Suisse report was a “doomsday prediction”.
.
While agreeing that there will be pressure on prices, Assistant Professor Choy Keen Meng, an economist at the Nanyang Technological University, did not think the higher-paid professionals will leave Singapore in droves. “When they decided to come here, they uprooted with their families and their kids would have gone to school here. They don’t want to interrupt their children’s schooling,” Prof Choy said.
.
.
FOREIGN TALENT TO RETURN?
.
According to the Credit Suisse report, of the 800,000 jobs created between 2004 and the third-quarter of last year, 500,000 were filled by foreigners and permanent residents.
.
So it’s logical that these foreigners bear the initial brunt during this downturn. But will Singapore’s policy to attract foreign talent be undermined and will it be hard to woo foreigners when the economy finally recovers?
.
Citigroup analyst Kit Wei Zheng doesn’t think so. “It’s understood that in Singapore, when you go through a sharp GDP contraction, foreign population will fall. At some point in time, the economy will recover, and population size will increase again,” he said.
.
“Singapore’s a great place to do business so when the cycle picks up, these guys should return,” Mr Leong said.
[email protected]:
IN what an expert called a “doomsday prediction”, two economists say Singapore may lose 300,000 jobs by next year, of which two-thirds would belong to foreigners.
.
As the Republic grapples with what is likely to be its worst recession, “recent surveys all point to many more firms planning to fire than hire, a finding backed by anecdotal reports of job cuts by leading firms in their sectors,” said economists Cem Karacadag and Kun Lung Wu of Credit Suisse Group in a report that has raised many eyebrows with its alarming forecast.
.
Credit Suisse had similarly drew attention last May when it issued a deeply bearish outlook for the Singapore property sector and while there was some initial scepticism, subsequent data have largely borne out the accuracy of its call.
.
But analysts Today spoke to — though agreeing that a higher-than-before number of jobs will be lost this year on the back of the increasingly grim economic outlook — felt that the Credit Suisse jobs report was too pessimistic. Barclays Capital economist Leong Wai Ho said: “I think we have already seen the nature of the severity, I don’t think we will get much worse than that.”
.
Mr Leong predicted retrenchments to reach around 35,000, with the unemployment rate to peak at the second-quarter of this year at just over 5 per cent.
.
The Credit Suisse report gave a sectoral breakdown of its headline 300,000 number: About 160,000 positions will be shed in the services industry; 100,000 in manufacturing; and another 40,000 in the construction industry. “As harsh as our assumptions may seem, they only imply that the economy gives up all of the jobs it created in 2008 and a portion of the new jobs in 2007,” the Credit Suisse economists wrote.
.
Two out of three of the jobs lost would be held by foreigners and permanentresidents. With the exodus of these foreigners, Singapore’s population will shrink3.3 per cent to 4.68 million next year from 4.84 million now, said Credit Suisse.
.
Real estate experts say the property market — which has already been hit by the fallout of the global financial crisis — will be further buffeted by the repatriation of expatriates as companies downsize.
.
“The first market to be affected would be your residential and your prime residential market, because an immense source of leasing activity comes from foreigners,” saidMr Donald Han, managing director of property consulting firm Cushman and Wakefield.
.
Demand for office and factory space would fall too, due to “a downsizing in office requirements” from multinational companies, he said, although he opined that the Credit Suisse report was a “doomsday prediction”.
.
While agreeing that there will be pressure on prices, Assistant Professor Choy Keen Meng, an economist at the Nanyang Technological University, did not think the higher-paid professionals will leave Singapore in droves. “When they decided to come here, they uprooted with their families and their kids would have gone to school here. They don’t want to interrupt their children’s schooling,” Prof Choy said.
.
.
FOREIGN TALENT TO RETURN?
.
According to the Credit Suisse report, of the 800,000 jobs created between 2004 and the third-quarter of last year, 500,000 were filled by foreigners and permanent residents.
.
So it’s logical that these foreigners bear the initial brunt during this downturn. But will Singapore’s policy to attract foreign talent be undermined and will it be hard to woo foreigners when the economy finally recovers?
.
Citigroup analyst Kit Wei Zheng doesn’t think so. “It’s understood that in Singapore, when you go through a sharp GDP contraction, foreign population will fall. At some point in time, the economy will recover, and population size will increase again,” he said.
.
“Singapore’s a great place to do business so when the cycle picks up, these guys should return,” Mr Leong said.
Ansley Ng
[email protected]:
IN what an expert called a “doomsday prediction”, two economists say Singapore may lose 300,000 jobs by next year, of which two-thirds would belong to foreigners.
.
As the Republic grapples with what is likely to be its worst recession, “recent surveys all point to many more firms planning to fire than hire, a finding backed by anecdotal reports of job cuts by leading firms in their sectors,” said economists Cem Karacadag and Kun Lung Wu of Credit Suisse Group in a report that has raised many eyebrows with its alarming forecast.
.
Credit Suisse had similarly drew attention last May when it issued a deeply bearish outlook for the Singapore property sector and while there was some initial scepticism, subsequent data have largely borne out the accuracy of its call.
.
But analysts Today spoke to — though agreeing that a higher-than-before number of jobs will be lost this year on the back of the increasingly grim economic outlook — felt that the Credit Suisse jobs report was too pessimistic. Barclays Capital economist Leong Wai Ho said: “I think we have already seen the nature of the severity, I don’t think we will get much worse than that.”
.
Mr Leong predicted retrenchments to reach around 35,000, with the unemployment rate to peak at the second-quarter of this year at just over 5 per cent.
.
The Credit Suisse report gave a sectoral breakdown of its headline 300,000 number: About 160,000 positions will be shed in the services industry; 100,000 in manufacturing; and another 40,000 in the construction industry. “As harsh as our assumptions may seem, they only imply that the economy gives up all of the jobs it created in 2008 and a portion of the new jobs in 2007,” the Credit Suisse economists wrote.
.
Two out of three of the jobs lost would be held by foreigners and permanentresidents. With the exodus of these foreigners, Singapore’s population will shrink3.3 per cent to 4.68 million next year from 4.84 million now, said Credit Suisse.
.
Real estate experts say the property market — which has already been hit by the fallout of the global financial crisis — will be further buffeted by the repatriation of expatriates as companies downsize.
.
“The first market to be affected would be your residential and your prime residential market, because an immense source of leasing activity comes from foreigners,” saidMr Donald Han, managing director of property consulting firm Cushman and Wakefield.
.
Demand for office and factory space would fall too, due to “a downsizing in office requirements” from multinational companies, he said, although he opined that the Credit Suisse report was a “doomsday prediction”.
.
While agreeing that there will be pressure on prices, Assistant Professor Choy Keen Meng, an economist at the Nanyang Technological University, did not think the higher-paid professionals will leave Singapore in droves. “When they decided to come here, they uprooted with their families and their kids would have gone to school here. They don’t want to interrupt their children’s schooling,” Prof Choy said.
.
.
FOREIGN TALENT TO RETURN?
.
According to the Credit Suisse report, of the 800,000 jobs created between 2004 and the third-quarter of last year, 500,000 were filled by foreigners and permanent residents.
.
So it’s logical that these foreigners bear the initial brunt during this downturn. But will Singapore’s policy to attract foreign talent be undermined and will it be hard to woo foreigners when the economy finally recovers?
.
Citigroup analyst Kit Wei Zheng doesn’t think so. “It’s understood that in Singapore, when you go through a sharp GDP contraction, foreign population will fall. At some point in time, the economy will recover, and population size will increase again,” he said.
.
“Singapore’s a great place to do business so when the cycle picks up, these guys should return,” Mr Leong said.
