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Tiong Cock rationing electricity in winter.

Blackouts, trade partner fallout for Beijing
innovation
China’s ban on Aussie coal backfires badly with blackouts and the fallout could be far reaching
December 24, 2020 1:35pm
A new economic strategy from Beijing is set to shake up global trade and could change Australia's key relationship with its biggest export market.
China’s plan to inflict “maximum pain” on Australia could be backfiring in more ways than one.
Dozens of Chinese cities and at least four provinces are suffering through a brutal start to winter with new rules imposed on electricity use that include residents and businesses cutting how much power they use.

Skyscrapers are shutting off lights, streets are dark and factories are cutting back work hours dramatically to deal with an unprecedented electricity crisis brought on, in part, by a decision from Beijing to ban Australian coal.

As news.com.au reported on Tuesday, the dumping of one of Australia’s most valuable trade commodities backfired on China and coal prices have skyrocketed since October.

The tense stand-off shows no signs of easing anytime soon but experts say China may want to reconsider its stance before more damage is done.

Residents wait to be tested for the coronavirus in northeastern China. Picture: AFP Source: AFP
Zhou Xin, political economy editor at the South China Morning Post, wrote an editorial on Tuesday warning the Community Party was shooting itself in the foot.

“Beijing’s trade measures targeting Australia ... could be seen as China using its trade power through its huge domestic market as a weapon to serve political purposes,” he wrote.

“This perception will not help Beijing’s effort to be viewed as a believer in, and supporter of, free trade, nor advance its goal of joining the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, a regional 11-member trade deal in which Australia is a member.

“It could also undermine China’s own efforts in seeking closer trade and economic ties with regional trade partners. After all, who would want to cultivate a closer relationship when it could be used as a tool of punishment in the future?”

Therein lies the problem for China. In a bid to send a message to Australia over perceived insults, it is showing the world that there are risks involved in partnering.

Xi Jinping takes a public oath of allegiance to the Constitution in the Great Hall of the People in Beijing. Picture: Ju Peng/Xinhua Source: AFP
Dr Jeffrey Wilson, research director at the Perth USAsia Centre, told the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ China Power podcast on Tuesday that China’s dumping of Australian exports was “massive and unjustified”.

“We’ve seen what’s been a political dispute boiling away for two or three years over issues a lot of people recognise, then suddenly turn into this quite hostile and now very highly valued trade dispute,” he said.

But, interestingly, Dr Wilson also pointed out a weakness for Beijing – its dependence on Australia.

“These are surgically-targeted sanctions. There was a particular targeting, attempting to maximise the pain. They’ve almost run out of targets now. Almost everything has been hit.

“Only three products have been spared. Iron ore and natural gas have been spared largely due to China’s dependence. There’s no alternative supplier. And bizarrely, one other product is Australian dairy.

People wearing face masks walk at a mall in Beijing on December 21, 2020. Picture: Noel Celis/AFP Source: AFP
“A hypothesis I’d offer is that it would be to do with the politics of baby milk formula which is a hot-button issue with families.”

The decision by Beijing to cut Australian coal exports in mid-December followed a months-long feud that has seen China ban exports from seafood to wine and timber.

It is linked to a list of 14 grievances China filed with Australia. At the top of the list is the Morrison Government’s calls for an independent inquiry into the origins of the coronavirus which emerged from Wuhan in early 2020 and spread worldwide.

China viewed Australia’s stance as an insult and took action. President Xi Jinping has not spoken with Prime Minister Scott Morrison since, despite repeated attempts by Australia to end the tense stand-off.

The New York Times reported the ban on Australian coal was having an unexpected impact as the relationship between the two countries goes “into free-fall”.

Chinese President Xi Jinping waves from a vehicle as he reviews the troops at a military parade marking the 70th founding anniversary of the People's Republic of China. Picture: Thomas Peter/Reuters Source: Supplied
“Australia has, among other things, demanded an investigation into the origins of the coronavirus, which first emerged in China. China in turn has banned imports of Australian coal – leaving huge ships stranded at sea,” the Times reports.

China denies the situation is being exacerbated by a ban on Australian coal but a Chinese energy insider told The Australian: “You cannot pretend that bad relations between China and Australia haven’t contributed to this situation.”

Speaking with news.com.au earlier this month, Professor James Laurenceson, the director of the Australia-China Relations Institute at UTS, touched on the current predicament facing China and said the more restrictions that were imposed, the more Beijing risked hurting its own interest.

“For example, iron ore would hurt Australia the most, but if China hit that, it would shoot itself in the foot even more,” he said at the time.

Australia on Monday officially listed a complaint with the World Trade Organisation about the export ban on barley.

In its filing, Australia accused China of failing to uphold WTO rules.
What happened to the massive floods. I heard its a ongoing process for many months now.,
 
I am just giving a logical personal opinion. No need to be insulting. As for me, I only recognize 中華民國。
I don't equate logic with CCPee cocksuckers. And the insult was well-deserved.
 
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Chicoms are bloody shameless

Schadenfreude as Chinese steel mills ask for help from Rio and BHP

December 17, 2020 — 11.55am
There would be an element of schadenfreude within BHP as China’s steel mills send signals of distress in response to the soaring price of iron ore.

BHP is the world’s biggest seaborne metallurgical coal producer but China’s so-far-unofficial ban on Australian coal has left Australian coal carriers stranded in China’s ports, unable to unload and the price of Australian coal has plummeted.

The price of iron ore has surged in 2020.
The price of iron ore has surged in 2020. BLOOMBERG
No doubt, when BHP iron ore marketing executives were summoned to a video call with the China Iron and Steel Association last week, they made the right sympathetic noises about the near-70 per cent increase in iron ore prices this year but, given the backdrop of the widespread Chinese trade sanctions on Australian products and on their own coal exports, one suspects it wouldn’t have been heartfelt.

It isn’t clear what CISA expects the Australian producers to do about prices that have soared from less than $US90 a tonne at the start of this year to more than $US150 a tonne, which has more than offset the impact of the bans on coal, barley, wine, lobsters and lamb on Australia’s exports to China.

There was a ripple of concern, and some bemusement, in mining circles when CISA, according to Reuters, said on Wednesday that Rio Tinto, similarly summoned to talks, had committed to working with the mills to review the pricing mechanism for iron ore, which CISA vice-chairman Luo Tiejun described as “unreasonable” and “not conducive to the long term healthy development of upstream and downstream” sectors of the industry.

Iron ore is Australia's silver lining to its darkening China cloud
Rio responded to the report by issuing its own very diplomatic, but rather meaningless, statement.

“Rio Tinto is continuously working with customers, suppliers and industry stakeholders to improve our products and services to meet evolving customer needs as well as to ensure major markets, including iron ore, are open, liquid and transparent, which benefits all market participants,” it said.

It is understandable that the mills aren’t happy with the spike in prices even as their other big input cost – coal – has soared as a result of their own government’s actions in cutting off their supplies of Australian coal.

They are having to substitute domestic coal and coal sourced from other countries that is nearly twice as expensive and of lower quality than the Australian product. With the elevated iron ore prices they are experiencing an intense margin squeeze. Trade wars, as the US discovered, are mutually destructive.

While the iron ore producers might make polite motherhood statements of their commitment to their customers and to liquid and transparent markets – and the iron or market, where the price is based on indices that reflect actual customer transactions, is transparent and illiquid – there is no way, given their historical experiences, that the Australian miners would contemplate any material change to the way their commodity is priced.

The producers aren’t going to walk away from the current pricing mechanism or gift the mills material discounts to alleviate the pressure on the mills’ margins created by the effects of the stimulus program and China’s self-harming ban on Australian coal.

Until a decade ago seaborne iron ore had been priced through annual negotiations between the big producers – Rio, BHP and Brazil’s Vale – and the Chinese mills, echoing the way the price had been set with Japan’s mills for more than 40 years.

It was former BHP chief executive, Marius Kloppers, who transformed the way iron ore was priced.

From about 2005, Kloppers had advocated a shift to market-clearing prices for bulk commodities like coal and iron ore to replace the annual, protracted, negotiations with the Japanese and Chinese mills, where the producers were inevitably played off against each other.

He said BHP would produce at capacity and accept whatever the market price – at the time indices of iron ore prices were just emerging - might be. In 2010 BHP shifted most of its Chinese customers over to market pricing.

Rio and Vale were initially reluctant to follow suit but the Chinese mills forced their hand. Where the Japanese had always honoured their contracts the Chinese mills, when the spot price fell below their contract price, reneged on the contracts to get access to the lower prices.

Australian coal carriers stranded in China’s ports, unable to unload and the price of Australian coal has plummeted. Peter Braig

Confronted with the “heads we win, tails you lose” stance of the mills, Vale and subsequently Rio joined BHP in adopting market-related pricing and the contract system disappeared.

Unless Rio’s corporate memory has completely failed, which it hasn’t, there will be no turning back and any changes to the current pricing mechanism will be tinkering rather than structural.

The problem confronting the mills is that the prices do reflect the fundamentals of supply and demand.

China might prove Trump right, forced to manipulate its currency after all
On the supply side – and the three Australia producers, Rio, BHP and Fortescue supply more than 60 per cent of the mill’s demand – there have been some constraints.

Vale is still recovering from its tailing dam failures and has also experienced weather events that have seen its production fall short of its own forecasts.

The Pilbara miners are implementing pre-cyclone season maintenance, which has a modest impact on their production volumes, but are otherwise producing as much ore as they can and, subject to the weather, will continue to do so.

The mills can blame their own government for the demand-side issues. China’s response to the pandemic centred on stimulating infrastructure investment, which is steel-intensive. The mills are producing at near-record rates - which means that their demand for iron ore is at near-record levels.

Given the stimulus-inflated demand, which has seen iron ore imports running at double–digit rates above those in 2019, along with Vale’s production shortfalls and thin inventories at the ports, it isn’t surprising that the price has spiked.

That’s the way markets work. The mills didn’t complain – and nor did the miners -- when, in 2016, the price fell below $US40 a tonne as supply overwhelmed demand.

While there is speculative activity in iron ore, via trading in iron ore futures on the Dalian and Singapore exchanges, the prices the miners are receiving are not unprecedented.

During the last, and far bigger, bout of infrastructure-based stimulus in response to the financial crisis the price neared $US200 a tonne.

Contrary to the mills assertion, the pricing mechanism hasn’t failed but reflects actual market conditions and CISA’s calls for China’s regulators to investigate the price and “severely crack down on possible violations of laws and regulations” are therefore misconceived and could backfire.

No relief: How Biden's new trade chief will keep the pressure on China
The producers aren’t going to walk away from the current pricing mechanism or gift the mills material discounts to alleviate the pressure on the mills’ margins created by the effects of the stimulus program and China’s self-harming ban on Australian coal.

Any attempt to “crack down” on them could adversely impact supply, send the price roaring even higher and ravage the mills’ profitability even further.

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Tiongs can do this in the winter to keep warm.

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