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US Treasuries not the safe bet they once were, research says
Published Sat, Aug 24, 2024 · 12:14 AM
Long touted as hands-down the world’s “safe haven” securities, the behaviour of US Treasuries during and after the Covid-19 pandemic calls that label into question, suggesting they are little different from the debt issued by the likes of Germany, Britain, France, or even big corporations.
That’s the key finding of new research presented at the Kansas City Fed’s annual research conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. It examines a shift in investor behaviour in that period that raises questions about the “exorbitant privilege” the US government has long enjoyed to borrow broadly on the global market even as federal budget gaps grow ever wider. It’s a timely question given growing deficits are seen as a near certainty regardless of who becomes the next US president.
US Treasuries not the safe bet they once were, research says
- The researchers found that investors marked down Treasury securities, much as they did for bonds from other countries during the pandemic shutdown of 2020. PHOTO: REUTERS
NO SAFER than a bund. Or a gilt. Or an OAT.
Long touted as hands-down the world’s “safe haven” securities, the behaviour of US Treasuries during and after the Covid-19 pandemic calls that label into question, suggesting they are little different from the debt issued by the likes of Germany, Britain, France, or even big corporations.
That’s the key finding of new research presented at the Kansas City Fed’s annual research conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. It examines a shift in investor behaviour in that period that raises questions about the “exorbitant privilege” the US government has long enjoyed to borrow broadly on the global market even as federal budget gaps grow ever wider. It’s a timely question given growing deficits are seen as a near certainty regardless of who becomes the next US president.
New York University’s Roberto Gomez-Cram, London Business School’s Howard Kung and Stanford University’s Hanno Lustig also throw into question the assertion that the Treasury market was dysfunctional in that period – as asserted by the Federal Reserve when it launched its massive bond buying – or just rationally pricing the risk of a massive unfunded spending shock then being prepared in response to the health emergency.
“In response to Covid, US Treasury investors seem to have shifted to the risky debt model when pricing Treasurys,” wrote New York University’s Roberto Gomez-Cram, London Business School’s Howard Kung and Stanford University’s Hanno Lustig in the paper. “Policymakers, including central banks, should internalise this shift when assessing whether bond markets are functioning properly.”
The researchers looked at the behaviour of Treasuries securities during the pandemic shutdown of 2020, when yields shot higher not just for US debt but for bonds issued by nations across the globe.