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Worst fall in UK living standards since records began, says OBR
Spending watchdog says Britain is in recession and unemployment will rise by 500,000Anna Isaac
@Annaisaac
Thu 17 Nov 2022 09.20 EST
The UK has fallen into a recession which will last more than a year and push half a million people out of work, while households face the biggest fall in living standards since records began.
The government spending watchdog forecast a 7% drop in household incomes over the next two years, capping what one of its officials described as a “dismal decade” for growth.
The drop in household spending power will be so acute in the next two years it will effectively wipe out the past eight years of growth, as wage rises fail to keep pace with inflation and interest rates rises. It will effectively turn the clock back to 2013, the OBR said.
It also marks only the third time since the mid-1950s in which there will be back-to-back years of falling living standards. The last time was in the aftermath of the global financial crisis.
The economy will shrink by 2%, driving up unemployment by 505,000 by the second half of 2024, the OBR said. GDP will only reach its pre-pandemic level by the end of the same year.
“The medium-term fiscal outlook has materially worsened since our March forecast due to a weaker economy, higher interest rates, and higher inflation,” the OBR said in its latest update on the outlook for the economy and public finances published alongside Jeremy Hunt’s autumn statement.
While household incomes are squeezed, taxes will rise to 37.1% of GDP, their highest sustained level since the second world war.
Overall, the spending watchdog said that government borrowing was likely to be higher than forecast in March this year, but that it will fall relative to economic output from 2024-25 onwards.
The OBR was embroiled in a political storm around Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng’s mini-budget, which went ahead in September without releasing forecasts from the watchdog.
It said on Thursday that its forecast “has been unusual in both the time it took to produce and the process leading to its publication”, in light of the furore.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.th...cession-with-half-a-million-job-losses-likely