The PE in Retrospect

[Varuna]

I voted TJS because i felt he was the best candidate. If i had known that it was going to be very close between TCB and TT I would have tactically voted TCB.

Shamefully, I also swung from TCB to TJS as the latter pushed himself and stood out in the later part of the run while TCB went low profile. With one precious vote on hand and emotions ran high, I thought I should use it to vote wisely for the maverick, but I totally forgot the big picture already set up in the first place to split us up. I should have stuck to my initial feelings all the way through. I must admit I am really a political moron who is easily swayed by emotions.

 

[theDoors]

The other thing is, now all the party elders have been "ridicule" publicly.

ESM with the "TPL effect" on his vote count.
Former DPM TT winning with a razor thin margin.

I think no party elder can come out and challenge PM in a post MM era.

Imagine if the President is elected with a strong mandate, and the popular sentiment is that the PM is incompetent. In a post MM era, it will spell trouble for the PM.

The biggest winner of GE2011 and PE2011 is PM Lee.

 

[Liquigas]

After GE and PE 2011, we now know there are 4 distinct voter groups with their respective shares as PAP diehard - 35%, PAP moderate -25%, Opposition diehard - 25% & Opposition moderate - 15%. The stance of the diehards are firm and are unlikely to change much from now till 2016 so the battle for the minds and hearts of voters by political parties gearing up for the next GE will be on the 40%conservative (or fence sitters) voters who are capable of swinging either side. If the ruling party are perceived to have made no or too little changes, then a big chunk of these 40% voters are likely to swing their votes to the Oppostion.

 

[wwabbit]

The official spin is already becoming a PAP win 70-30. Yes a split, but healing this will be top priority. Even if TCB won, it would be spun (and eventually believed) as the same PAP win 70-30 or even 90-10 (vs TKL if TJS changed sides). If TCB won, his top priority will still be reconciling the TT-PAP and his PAP-side, same as what TT/ PAP leadership is focusing on now. Opposition voters on his side will be like the 2nd wife as they are smaller in number and certainly less powerful. Unhappy, jealous, angry. No way TCB margin could have been big enough to throw out PM from Istana – not if the party needs to be reconciled as top priority.

But these are all would haves and should haves. If PAP plays the game right from now, they may well succeed in incorporating the TCB side. Same if TCB won. They may then win over the moderate opposition voters who voted TCB. In so doing, they will blur the lines between them and WP and weaken the WP base. I suspect they could have been even more effective in doing this had TCB won.

In a funny way, the lines between PAP and opposition are still fairly clear. But may not stay for long. For example, Yee Jen Yong’s ST piece may well sound similar to what somebody on TCB’s PAP-side might write. Question is whether opposition can now move effectively to appeal to more of these moderates than the PAP can, and still differentiate itself. TJS’s side has a clearer identity, but may be less appealing to moderates. Can that side polish up more and be more effective?

I wouldn't be so negative. I see this as an opportunity for WP as more and more people formerly from the PAP camp start to identify themselves with the moderates.

 

[Varuna]

I think the crux is that people still find TJS's approach confrontational and therefore deemed him a hardliner. People here are still not used to seeing robust defences, sharp rebuttals, lampooning etc. In fact, TJS is mildly adversarial as far as contents go, but his demeanor is a lot friendly and personable. Really, Singaporeans should wake up to more shouting, more rambunctiousness, and cut and thrust of public debate. If we still fear rocking the boat, we are playing into the PAP's fearmongering tactics.

I am equally puzzled as I did not find TJS's approach confrontational. He spoke more assertively and sternly. If TJS had used his style to run a GE, would that be seen confrontational also? We never had many political forums and debates on TV for long. If there were more, you can see more confrontational faces appearing. And when this sort of things happen, and your points are misunderstood and you are cut-off from clarifying, it is inevitable for emotions to run high. I am fine with whatever style as long as he can back his talk with sound reasoning and argument. Compared to those non-confrontational ball-lickers who are always ready to smile, applaud and appease their bosses without a mind of their own, TJS still fares better.

 

[Thick Face Black Heart]

Hey, don't be so harsh with yourself! There are many other political idiots (myself included) and real life idiots but they are blessedly unaware & they still live happily ever after!

Sadly, this is precisely the problem -> singaporeans trying to live happily ever after since 1959 and preserving the status quo for the sake of "stability". Look at what this got us:

(a) hollowed out institutions, eradication of civil society and civic space

(b) a govt that treats citizens as ants, economic digits, etc

(c) overpopulated with foreigners, many of whom do not really add value to the workforce

(d) no transparency in CPF, Temasek, GIC.

(e) PA and HDB colluding in most shameful manner possible.

 

[Thick Face Black Heart]

Shamefully, I also swung from TCB to TJS as the latter pushed himself and stood out in the later part of the run while TCB went low profile. With one precious vote on hand and emotions ran high, I thought I should use it to vote wisely for the maverick, but I totally forgot the big picture already set up in the first place to split us up. I should have stuck to my initial feelings all the way through. I must admit I am really a political moron who is easily swayed by emotions.

I think you echoed my heart (pun intended).

Waking up the next day to a TT victory is like having a hangover.

 

[kingrant]

Aw c'mon, TCB lost by only 7000 plus votes. Why blame him when there were 37,000 over spoilt votes? Any of these would have tipped the balance.

nothing to do with TJS.

Tan Jee Say wants to do better next time get Woffles to redo his wife's eyes and lose those glasses. Disconserting is the opinion of many. Cost a hundred grand worth of votes at least.

He can fuck off at the next election. He will be remembered for handing Tony the Presidency.

 

[Unrepented]

There will not be 25% Pap moderate in a GE where partisan lines are clear.

After GE and PE 2011, we now know there are 4 distinct voter groups with their respective shares as PAP diehard - 35%, PAP moderate -25%, Opposition diehard - 25% & Opposition moderate - 15%. The stance of the diehards are firm and are unlikely to change much from now till 2016 so the battle for the minds and hearts of voters by political parties gearing up for the next GE will be on the 40%conservative (or fence sitters) voters who are capable of swinging either side. If the ruling party are perceived to have made no or too little changes, then a big chunk of these 40% voters are likely to swing their votes to the Oppostion.

 

[Windsor]

Shamefully, I also swung from TCB to TJS as the latter pushed himself and stood out in the later part of the run while TCB went low profile. With one precious vote on hand and emotions ran high, I thought I should use it to vote wisely for the maverick, but I totally forgot the big picture already set up in the first place to split us up. I should have stuck to my initial feelings all the way through. I must admit I am really a political moron who is easily swayed by emotions.

Bro you are not alone as I too was guided by emotions and not discerning. Fortunately since I was the first one to vote in the family, my wife and 2 kids voted TCB when I told them they should. So it was not so bad.

 

[jw5]

never in my life did I expect instead that it would be TT and TCB neck to neck, with TJS trailing far behind at 25%.

I am a political idiot and deserve to be fucked in the arsehole.

I suspect there will be "some people" in this forum who will take u up on that offer.

But not me hor............... :o

 

[wwabbit]

There will not be 25% Pap moderate in a GE where partisan lines are clear.

Hougang SMC had 35% PAP votes (surprise! the same amount of votes TT got) as compared to the national average of 60%.
This does show that of the 60% PAP voters, 25% are moderate enough to vote opposition if the opposition candidate is strong enough and the PAP candidate is weak enough.

Conversely, if you look at the AMK GRC results, you will see that of 40% opposition voters, 30% will continue to vote opposition even if the opposition fields 5 monkeys against the PAP.

No offense to the monkeys, of course

 

[jw5]

As I pointed out before the polls, TCB did not try in selling himself to those who were not aware of him

People like that never sell themselves. If he was not with the PAP, he would not have been elected as an MP. I wish I had done more to sell him in this forum. .

That's simply not him. If he did that, he wouldn't be TCB.
Dunno about being capable, intelligent, articulate, combative, financially adept, strategic, etc, but my take on him is that he is the kindest man among the 4 candidates. Heard 1st or 2nd hand accounts about him helping people in a personal capacity that goes back years. Sometimes, that counts for something.

TKL I knew as NTUC Income CEO and other than 2008 minibonds, didn't hear anything about him. TJS only heard of him in 2011. TT heard rave reviews about him from the press for years but could not find a single personal account of how he helped individuals in need. Guess his is the bespectacled macro outlook.

 

[jw5]

I must admit I am really a political moron who is easily swayed by emotions.

On the contrary, you are a nice chap who is trying to do what he thinks is best for his country.
Can tell that from your posts.

 

[Varuna]

On the contrary, you are a nice chap who is trying to do what he thinks is best for his country.
Can tell that from your posts.

Thanks brudder. Appreciate these kind words to help nurse my badly bruised chest, which I have started beating since the official results came out.

 

[Unrepented]

I am just giving my 2c to the planners in opps parties, for their consideration.

Because out of the 25% so called pap moderates, a portion of them are ppl (and family members) in the civil services and GLCs. Since TCB can be considered a member from the PAP, those so called "pap moderates" from the aforementioned sectors do not have the fear factor to vote for TCB.

But if it is a clear opp vs pap in a GE, these "moderates" may retract and vote pap, because they would still fear that their choice in voting can be detected. This is from my findings from my circle and neighbours.

Hougang SMC had 35% PAP votes (surprise! the same amount of votes TT got) as compared to the national average of 60%.
This does show that of the 60% PAP voters, 25% are moderate enough to vote opposition if the opposition candidate is strong enough and the PAP candidate is weak enough.

Conversely, if you look at the AMK GRC results, you will see that of 40% opposition voters, 30% will continue to vote opposition even if the opposition fields 5 monkeys against the PAP.

No offense to the monkeys, of course

 

[wikiphile]

Shamefully, I also swung from TCB to TJS as the latter pushed himself and stood out in the later part of the run while TCB went low profile. With one precious vote on hand and emotions ran high, I thought I should use it to vote wisely for the maverick, but I totally forgot the big picture already set up in the first place to split us up. I should have stuck to my initial feelings all the way through. I must admit I am really a political moron who is easily swayed by emotions.

I swung and i am not ashamed. why should you be ashamed by what you judge to be the best candidate among them four? The Big picture only becomes a composite after the fact and usually not before it hence we can all take heart in the fact that we've all done our part in this. TT won, not so fairly but its expected in a flawed democracy.

 

[scroobal]

You are missing the point. Some swung to avoid putting TT in office and give the PAP a black eye. There were indications that TCB might not get enough votes and it was an attempt to rally aroudnd the next best contender.

I swung and i am not ashamed. why should you be ashamed by what you judge to be the best candidate among them four? The Big picture only becomes a composite after the fact and usually not before it hence we can all take heart in the fact that we've all done our part in this. TT won, not so fairly but its expected in a flawed democracy.

 

[Porfirio Rubirosa]

sad but true, wld include jufrie in the frame as well...wonder why michelle is not in the new line up?...r has she pulled out?...

retail politics, centrist appeal are the key take sways but If the SDP continues to elect Vincent Cheng to high positions it will be condemned to being the 25% party



Locke

 

[Perspective]

sad but true, wld include jufrie in the frame as well...wonder why michelle is not in the new line up?...r has she pulled out?...

The new line-up raises my curiosity too. Either the new blood declined to be in, or were not elected, or were not promoted to cadres to be eligible for CEC positions. Either one of the 3 possibilities do not spell good.