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We have often heard about the claim that Singaporeans are not producing enough babies and I would like to look at this issue in more detail.
Firstly, let's assume that there is a minimum income required to comfortably support a family of 2 children and probably 2 parents (due to the Stop At Two campaign, each sibling will have to support one parent each). There will be some lucky ones who would not need to support their parents but I will say that most people will need to provide for their parents in some way or another.
Next, let's take a look at the income distribution in Singapore. I only have the statistics for 2000 so I will just make use of that. I will make the assumption that $5000 is the minimum household income per month to raise a family without too many worries. I think the figure would be more now (seeing that women want their partners to be earning at least $4000 per month) but this figure should still be relatively true in 2000. After deducting 20% CPF, that would leave $4000 disposable income for supporting 6 persons or almost $700 per person (children would possibly need less than $700, so this is an amount adequate to live on comfortably, I would say). From the statistics (from Wikipedia), it can be seen that 65% of the population has a household income of less than $5000 per month. This means a whopping majority of the population are unable to raise a family comfortably. You can change the minimum income threshold but I believe it would not make much of a difference. Although the 65% may include 1-person or 2-person households but if they want to start a family, they would most likely face the same issues and/or they may need to support their elderly parents (not living with them) as well.
Next, let's take a look at the measures provided to encourage Singaporeans to have more babies. There is the baby bonus and the working mother tax rebate. For the baby bonus, you get a cash grant of a few thousand dollars of each child and then subsequent matching contributions from the government. The message here is clear. If you are poor, you are unlikely to put in money to be eligible for the matching grants and you lose out. For the working mother tax rebate, again the benefit is skewed towards the rich. If you are poor, you are unlikely to find a job that will allow you to hire a maid to look after the kids while both parents work. Even if the mother works, she would probably not benefit from the rebate as she is likely to be earning below the taxable income threshold or close to it. So, most likely, the mother will remain at home while only the father works. It is clear that the support schemes are all targeted at the comfortably rich, the minority.
With the majority of the population not getting any benefits or help, is it any wonder that people are not having enough babies? Unless the government is expecting those benefitting to have at least 5-6 babies to make up the numbers. With the government getting foreign labour in, those at the lower end of society will see their wages depressed even more (bus drivers are paid around $1200 per month, I think).
The root of the problem of not enough babies is not that Singaporeans do not want to have babies. It is the direct result of government policies or rather, the lack of appropriate government policies. Some of you may say that the Malays seem to have no problems raising big families. But there is one point that is ignored. Singapore is in the middle of the Malay region, for the Malays, they can easily move to neighbouring countries and survive there if conditions become too difficult as they share the same ancestry and culture. For the rest of the population, where can they move to? It is regarded as a shame if a man cannot provide for his family. Singaporean women are also demanding higher standards of living and you can see the trend of more and more men marrying wives from other countries (but that doesn't really change the fact that raising a family would still be difficult). Women who cannot find partners here tend to marry men from western countries and may then move there with their husbands (or their children may not take up Singaporean citizenship).
To solve the issue, there needs to be a more equitable income distribution. That means ensuring that the costs of living are low enough for the majority to get by. There are many means to do that but the schemes must be targeted at the large majority of the population, not just those at the upper crust of society (e.g. allowing every family with a child and having a household income less than $5000pm to receive a child benefit). As for whether the Malays have been out-reproducing the other ethnic groups, I see no evidence of this. For the period from 1970 to 1990 (when there is relatively little migration of foreigners into Singapore), the composition of the racial makeup has remained stable. Besides, isn't singling out the Malay population for blame too racist? Imagine if you belong to the minority group and the government tries to penalise you for it (do we want to follow Malaysia's example?). If they do not want to encourage families (Malay or otherwise) from having too many children, they can put a cap on the number of children for getting the child benefit or disallow Muslims from having more than one wife (it has been more than 40 years and there should not be a separate set of laws for them, Singapore is not a Muslim country, if we get attacked for this, I am sure most people would want to defend our way of life to the death).
Every society will have its underclass and the stability of a society depends on how everyone is taken care of, not just making sure only the rich are looked after. I do not know what is the aim of PAP but it seems to be trying to create a society of elites and their "slaves" (cheap foreign labour) and hoping that the poor Singaporeans will die out by themselves. Sounds like the setting of a sci-fi novel I have read when I was a teenager. In short, I will just say that the government policies have failed miserably because they are still trying to do social engineering at the same time rather than ensuring that everyone benefits equally.
Firstly, let's assume that there is a minimum income required to comfortably support a family of 2 children and probably 2 parents (due to the Stop At Two campaign, each sibling will have to support one parent each). There will be some lucky ones who would not need to support their parents but I will say that most people will need to provide for their parents in some way or another.
Next, let's take a look at the income distribution in Singapore. I only have the statistics for 2000 so I will just make use of that. I will make the assumption that $5000 is the minimum household income per month to raise a family without too many worries. I think the figure would be more now (seeing that women want their partners to be earning at least $4000 per month) but this figure should still be relatively true in 2000. After deducting 20% CPF, that would leave $4000 disposable income for supporting 6 persons or almost $700 per person (children would possibly need less than $700, so this is an amount adequate to live on comfortably, I would say). From the statistics (from Wikipedia), it can be seen that 65% of the population has a household income of less than $5000 per month. This means a whopping majority of the population are unable to raise a family comfortably. You can change the minimum income threshold but I believe it would not make much of a difference. Although the 65% may include 1-person or 2-person households but if they want to start a family, they would most likely face the same issues and/or they may need to support their elderly parents (not living with them) as well.
Next, let's take a look at the measures provided to encourage Singaporeans to have more babies. There is the baby bonus and the working mother tax rebate. For the baby bonus, you get a cash grant of a few thousand dollars of each child and then subsequent matching contributions from the government. The message here is clear. If you are poor, you are unlikely to put in money to be eligible for the matching grants and you lose out. For the working mother tax rebate, again the benefit is skewed towards the rich. If you are poor, you are unlikely to find a job that will allow you to hire a maid to look after the kids while both parents work. Even if the mother works, she would probably not benefit from the rebate as she is likely to be earning below the taxable income threshold or close to it. So, most likely, the mother will remain at home while only the father works. It is clear that the support schemes are all targeted at the comfortably rich, the minority.
With the majority of the population not getting any benefits or help, is it any wonder that people are not having enough babies? Unless the government is expecting those benefitting to have at least 5-6 babies to make up the numbers. With the government getting foreign labour in, those at the lower end of society will see their wages depressed even more (bus drivers are paid around $1200 per month, I think).
The root of the problem of not enough babies is not that Singaporeans do not want to have babies. It is the direct result of government policies or rather, the lack of appropriate government policies. Some of you may say that the Malays seem to have no problems raising big families. But there is one point that is ignored. Singapore is in the middle of the Malay region, for the Malays, they can easily move to neighbouring countries and survive there if conditions become too difficult as they share the same ancestry and culture. For the rest of the population, where can they move to? It is regarded as a shame if a man cannot provide for his family. Singaporean women are also demanding higher standards of living and you can see the trend of more and more men marrying wives from other countries (but that doesn't really change the fact that raising a family would still be difficult). Women who cannot find partners here tend to marry men from western countries and may then move there with their husbands (or their children may not take up Singaporean citizenship).
To solve the issue, there needs to be a more equitable income distribution. That means ensuring that the costs of living are low enough for the majority to get by. There are many means to do that but the schemes must be targeted at the large majority of the population, not just those at the upper crust of society (e.g. allowing every family with a child and having a household income less than $5000pm to receive a child benefit). As for whether the Malays have been out-reproducing the other ethnic groups, I see no evidence of this. For the period from 1970 to 1990 (when there is relatively little migration of foreigners into Singapore), the composition of the racial makeup has remained stable. Besides, isn't singling out the Malay population for blame too racist? Imagine if you belong to the minority group and the government tries to penalise you for it (do we want to follow Malaysia's example?). If they do not want to encourage families (Malay or otherwise) from having too many children, they can put a cap on the number of children for getting the child benefit or disallow Muslims from having more than one wife (it has been more than 40 years and there should not be a separate set of laws for them, Singapore is not a Muslim country, if we get attacked for this, I am sure most people would want to defend our way of life to the death).
Every society will have its underclass and the stability of a society depends on how everyone is taken care of, not just making sure only the rich are looked after. I do not know what is the aim of PAP but it seems to be trying to create a society of elites and their "slaves" (cheap foreign labour) and hoping that the poor Singaporeans will die out by themselves. Sounds like the setting of a sci-fi novel I have read when I was a teenager. In short, I will just say that the government policies have failed miserably because they are still trying to do social engineering at the same time rather than ensuring that everyone benefits equally.
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