Final Poll before GE2015
Blackbox Research has published their final poll before GE2015. Conducted in July 2015, this is the last poll that is legally allowed.
http://www.blackbox.com.sg/wp_new/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/YKA-July-2015.pdf
The MSM has been intentionally mis-interpreting the poll to give the impression that the PAP is having a surge of popularity. A more detailed examination of the results shows the contrary.
The critical graph to watch is on page 1. It shows satisfaction with the Singapore Government over time. In interpreting this graph it is important to understand how the numbers are constructed. The % number is based on a 5 point scale where 1 is undesirable score and 5 is a desirable score. Blackbox groups respondents that gave a
3 to 5 score as being "satisfied" with the government. This is a questionable grouping as it includes the neutral 3 grouping. A more orthodox grouping would be to group the results based on the
4 to 5 as being satisfied. In most studies of this sort, the typical incidence of respondents which would give a 3 score ranges from 30% to 40%. This translates to an estimate of
30% to 40% of Singaporeans actually being satisfied with the Singapore Government. This proportion corresponds more closely to actual core support of Singaporeans who consider themselves PAP supporters.
The critical graph on pg 1 is distorted because the scale does not start from 0. As such, we get the perception of wild swings in support from Jan 2014 to Jul 2015. We can easily remove this distortion by looking at a simple table of the results.
Jan 14 74%
Feb 14 72%
Mar 14 72%
Apr 14 73%
May 14 71%
Jun 14 72%
Jul 14 74%
Aug 14 74%
Sep 14 74%
Oct 14 72%
Nov 14 73%
Dec 14 76%
Jan 15 74%
Feb 15 75%
Mar 15 76%
Apr 15 80% (Poll done after the death of LKY)
May 15 79%
Jun 15 79%
Jul 15 76%
Once the distortion from the chart has been removed, it can be seen the numbers tend to be fairly stable over time. The only blip occurred in Apr 2015 after the death of LKY. Since the the numbers have fallen back to the pre-LKY range of around 76%
The stability of the numbers suggest that for its sound and fury, the AHPETC saga did not have much impact. LKY's death had a impact but this impact appears to have largely evaporated.
The outcome of GE 2015 is therefore going to be largely determined by the demographic change enveloping Singapore. This demographic change is the rise to demographic majority of Singaporeans born after 1965. Such Singaporeans would have turned 25 in 1990 and entered the work force. They will be the first generation to have experienced all of the PAP policy mistakes from the 1990s till now. The outcome is therefore pretty much carved in stone.
My prediction: The PAP vote share will drop to between 53% to 58%. The 2/3 majority is under threat for GE 2015. The Opposition will win between 25 to 35 seats.
Aftermath of GE 2015: The bigger battle will be after GE 2015. If the 2/3 majority is lost, the PAP will no longer have the ability to amend the Constitution. The paves the way for the election of a President who is unfriendly to the PAP and who can order an audit of the PAP.
