The 2012-13 Basketball Season Is Here

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16. Utah Jazz (36-30)

Coming off a surprising playoff berth last season, the Jazz have kept their frontcourt logjam of Al Jefferson, Paul Millsap, Derrick Favors, Enes Kanter, Jeremy Evans intact. Utah's biggest problem is it has no one to get its bevy of big men the ball. The score-first Mo Williams and veteran backups Earl Watson and Jamaal Tinsley are the only point guards on the roster. Third-year forward Gordon Hayward could be on the brink of a breakout year, but until the Jazz decongest their front line and land a premier guard, their ceiling is limited.

 

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17. New Orleans Hornets (21-45)

Eric Gordon's declaration this summer that he wanted to play in Phoenix raised more than a few eyebrows, but it was in his best interest to stick with The Unibrow. If Gordon is smart, he'll spend the next 10 years in New Orleans playing alongside No. 1 pick Anthony Davis, who looked like he belonged on Team USA in London and represents the most dominant big man prospect to enter the league in years. New Orleans is young, but its future is bright. GM Dell Demps made two more good moves this summer by drafting Austin Rivers at No. 10 and trading for Ryan Anderson.

 

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18. Minnesota Timberwolves (26-40)

It's easy (and fun!) to make fun of David Kahn, but it's starting to get tough to argue with the collection of talent he's piecing together in Minnesota. Unfortunately for the Wolves, they'll have to start their season without the two best pieces from that group. Knuckle pushups, of all things, will keep Kevin Love out 6-8 weeks, and Ricky Rubio is still perhaps two months away from returning from a knee injury. Luckily for Minnesota, Kahn scoured the globe this offseason to improve a lackluster roster. He signed Brandon Roy out of retirement and poached Andrei Kirilenko and Alexey Shved from Russia. He also added bench stalwarts Chase Budinger (Rockets), Greg Stiemsma (Celtics) and Dante Cunningham (Grizzlies), the last of whom will be thrust into action right away. The Wolves showed last season that the duo of Love-Rubio can produce .500-ball. Can they stay afloat until their stars return? Chances are no, but at full strength the Wolves will be the real deal.

 

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19. Milwaukee Bucks (31-35)

Brandon Jennings and Monta Ellis give the Bucks a potent one-two punch in the backcourt, but the team's group of bigs, highlighted by Ersan Ilyasova, Drew Gooden and Samuel Dalembert, leaves much to be desired. Then there's the issue of whether coach Scott Skiles can get the defense back on track despite having undersized guards who are known for their offense. Milwaukee finished ninth in the East last year and appears headed for a similar result with another ill-fitting cast of players.

 

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20. Golden State Warriors (23-43)

No team's training staff is more critical to its success than Golden State's. Its two best players, Stephen Curry and Andrew Bogut, are returning from season-ending injuries, and Carl Landry, Jarrett Jack and David Lee all missed significant portions of last year, too. So far, it's been a rough start. Curry was shut down for the preseason after rolling his ankle and Bogut still doesn't have a timetable for his return. One thing the Warriors will do well, regardless of health, is score. Second-year guard Klay Thompson has one of the best strokes in the league and rookie Harrison Barnes might have been the best shooter in the draft. Now, if only Mark Jackson can get this bunch to play some D.

 

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21. Portland Trail Blazers (28-38)

Portland might have gotten the steal of the draft at No. 6 with Damian Lillard, who was the co-MVP of the Las Vegas summer league after averaging 26.5 points, 4.0 rebounds and 5.3 assists per game. With LaMarcus Aldridge and Nicolas Batum, the team is set at forward. Can rookie Meyers Leonard develop into the center they hoped Greg Oden would be? Either way, he'll play. The only other proven big men on the roster are J.J. Hickson and Jared Jeffries, neither of whom is suited for the center position.

 

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22. Cleveland Cavaliers (21-45)

Kyrie Irving earned plenty of buzz this offseason when he starred for the USA Select team and more than held his own against the Team USA big boys. His crossover of Kobe Bryant, Kevin Durant and James Harden was arguably the highlight of the summer. The 20-year-old, last year's NBA Rookie of the Year, already appears ready to carry the Cavs. But how far? Cleveland has only three players who have been in the league at least seven years and Anderson Varejao is the only one who will play big minutes. That means the team's trio of current and former lottery picks, Dion Waiters, Tyler Zeller and Tristan Thompson, will have to play immediately.

 

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23. Toronto Raptors (23-43)

The Raptors benefited from the Rockets' point guard clearance sale, stealing Kyle Lowry for a future first-round pick. Lowry averaged 14.3 points, 4.5 rebounds and 6.6 assists for Houston last season and gives Toronto a dynamic backcourt combo with DeMar DeRozan to build around. Landry Fields is an interesting (and overpriced) option on the wing, but the Raptors really need former No. 1 pick Andrea Bargnani (who looked good early last season before injuries derailed his year) and last year's No. 5 pick, rookie big man Jonas Valanciunas, to pan out if they are going to be relevant. That's a big if.

 

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24. Detroit Pistons (25-41)

The Pistons are going big, literally, by building around Greg Monroe (6-foot-11) and rookie Andre Drummond (6-foot-10). Brandon Knight showed promise at point guard last season, but this season will likely be determined by the play of Rodney Stuckey. Some expected Stuckey to make the jump last season but the guard plateaued, averaging 17.8 points per 36 minutes for a second straight season. Detroit needs the 26-year-old Stuckey to break out if it wants 2012-13 to count for anything more than a rebuilding year.

 

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25. Phoenix Suns (33-33)

This summer, the Suns finally said farewell to Steve Nash, the longtime face of the franchise. It's not quite clear who will replace him in that sense, but it is apparent who Phoenix will turn to at point guard. The Suns apparently suffered from a case of trader's remorse, signing Goran Dragic to a four-year, $30 million deal after dealing him to the Rockets in 2011. They also drafted Kendall Marshall as his backup, giving them depth at at least one position. Phoenix also took a chance on former No. 2 pick Michael Beasley, who gets another chance to live up to his vast, untapped potential. With Marcin Gortat and Luis Scola, the Suns are respectable in the post, but their lack of a go-to-scorer will make it tough for them to keep up in the West.

 

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26. Houston Rockets (34-32)

It seems like the Rockets were involved in just about every rumor this summer. It's unfair to call the past few months an offseason for GM Daryl Morey, considering Houston boasts 14 new players on its current roster. Among them are a trio of first-round picks no one expected Houston to keep in Royce White, Terrence Jones and Jeremy Lamb. They also added Jeremy Lin, giving them the point guard they preferred over Lowry and Dragic. Houston has the most eclectic roster in the league, leaving Kevin McHale a pu-pu platter with which to work. But with 15 of its 18 players in camp having played three years or fewer, there's no telling how this season will shake out in Houston.

 

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27. Washington Wizards (20-46)

The Wizards have something special in the backcourt duo of John Wall and rookie Bradley Beal. They just won't get to see it right away. Wall will likely miss the first month of the season. His knee injury puts Washington's underdog postseason chances at risk, but with a veteran front line of Emeka Okafor, Nene and Trevor Ariza, the Wizards can still fight for a playoff spot if they can manage to get healthy. The team's prospects boil down to the success -- and health -- of its young injured point guard. Wall has averaged at least 8.0 assists per game in his first two seasons, but in doing so last year he also led the NBA in turnovers (255). The former No. 1 pick shot a mind-boggling 3-of-42 from the three-point line last season, resulting in a shooting percentage (7.1) so bad it looks like a typo. Wall has to improve in those areas for the Wizards to move forward as a franchise.

 

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28. Orlando Magic (37-29)

First-year GM Rob Hennigan didn't have many options when it came to unloading Dwight Howard, but the group of players he got in return leaves the Magic with even fewer. There's no doubt Hennigan is trying to re-create in Orlando what he contributed to in Oklahoma City, but Kevin Durants and Russell Westbrooks don't just grow on trees. With a 2012-13 team built around Arron Afflalo, Hedo Turkoglu, Glen Davis and Al Harrington, Magic fans wouldn't be wise to look forward to anything this season besides the lottery.

 

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29. Sacramento Kings (22-44)

The Kings had to be pleased when Thomas Robinson fell to them at the No. 5 pick in the draft. The pairing of Robinson and center DeMarcus Cousins gives the Kings an identity, and strength, for the first time in years. Sacramento's backcourt is more complex. The Kings would love it if former first-round picks Tyreke Evans and Jimmer Fredette could carry the load, but both were outplayed last season by former second-round pick Isaiah Thomas and swingman Marcus Thornton. The addition of Aaron Brooks, a former Sixth Man of the Year who played in China last season, only clutters things further.

 

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30. Charlotte Bobcats (7-59)

The Bobcats finished with the worst winning percentage in NBA history last season (.106) and lost their final 23 games. But with Michael Jordan handing over the basketball decision-making to GM Rich Cho, the Bobcats have at least admitted they have a problem. But it's going to take a lot more to fix this team. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist was the right pick at No. 2, but it'll take time for the 19-year-old to develop. Charlotte added two veterans, Ben Gordon and Ramon Sessions, to play alongside Kemba Walker, but it has very little inside. First-year coach Mike Dunlap has quantity over quality at center in Bismack Biyombo, Brendan Haywood, Byron Mullens and DeSagana Diop. Tyrus Thomas remains an enigma at power forward. The Bobcats have a long way to go, but at least they're embracing rebuilding wholeheartedly.

 

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Oklahoma City Thunder’s X-Factor: James Harden


The Thunder continue to be the anti-Lakers, operating in a near noiseless environment while keeping virtually their entire rotation intact. OKC returns its GM, coach and top seven players from last season — Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, Harden, Serge Ibaka, Kendrick Perkins, Thabo Sefolosha and Nick Collison — while also getting reserve point guard Eric Maynor back after a season lost to injury. That continuity leads to a relative dearth of question marks, considering the Thunder went 47-19 last season with a core entirely composed of young’ns.

The early talk in OKC has rightfully centered on Harden, who is up for a contract extension and has proved his worth as a max-level player. The financial issues for the small-market Thunder, particularly paying a more punitive luxury tax, are clear and have been repeatedly acknowledged by management. The tea leaves are difficult to read, but there’s a decent chance that a quick and easy resolution isn’t found in advance of the Oct. 31 deadline, which would send Harden on the longer path toward restricted free agency next summer.

Harden appears fully bought in to the OKC culture and his teammates, especially Durant, his close friend. The risk here isn’t that the relationship turns toxic if a deal can’t be reached, but more that Harden, who has shown a selflessness by continuing to come off the bench as a super sub, can put his contract situation out of mind and focus on what should be another run at a possible title. That’s way easier said than done. Knowing that a $60 million payday is at stake should you get injured is enough to make anyone’s mind wander. Answering endless questions about free agency only makes that worse.

If there’s a support system and structure anywhere in the league to make this type of situation feel less tenuous, it’s Oklahoma City’s. Harden isn’t a robot, though, and he cracked during the 2012 Finals. He’s more than earned the benefit of the doubt by putting the team in front of himself for three seasons, but this is still one to watch.

 

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Los Angeles Clippers’ X-Factor: Lamar Odom


It’s likely that, on the occasion of his birth, Odom hadn’t yet stopped screaming before the doctor, nurses and his mother unanimously agreed that he sure had the look of a future X-factor. Getting hit with this label has been the case for his entire NBA life, anyway. Until last season, and especially during his championship run as a key reserve for the Lakers, Odom was the type of X-factor that could put his team over the top, a matchup nightmare who could open up the interior for his bigs, move the ball and create a shot off the dribble when needed.

After a disastrous run with the Dallas Mavericks, Odom now represents the flip side of the X-factor, a player capable of tanking his team’s chances through inconsistent effort, questionable conditioning or lack of focus. At 32, Odom is just 18 months removed from playing all 82 games for the Lakers and taking home the 2011 Sixth Man Award. The versatile talent must still be in there somewhere, right?

The Clippers better hope so because the depth chart demands it. While L.A. devoted most of its summer attention to filling out its backcourt and wings by landing Grant Hill, Matt Barnes, Jamal Crawford and Willie Green and re-signing Chauncey Billups, the team added only barely serviceable pieces up front. Ronny Turiaf and Ryan Hollins enter the mix, replacing Reggie Evans and Kenyon Martin. Remember, the Evans/Martin duo played a combined 35.5 minutes per game in the postseason, as coach Vinny Del Negro opted to go smaller by reducing playing time for starting center DeAndre Jordan, particularly in late-game moments.

Odom has shown in the past to be a very capable rebounder, a skill the Clippers will need if and when they go small this season. His ability to generate his own offense is a plus on any bench, and theoretically alleviates some point-generating pressure from Crawford, who struggled with his shot last season on the Portland Trail Blazers when he was asked to do too much. More than anything, the Clippers need Odom to be a functional member of a frontcourt rotation. None of L.A.’s small forwards are really suited to swing to power forward and there just isn’t much talented size on the roster outside of Jordan and All-Star power forward Blake Griffin, who wound up breaking down during last year’s playoffs. Put it this way: If Odom gives the Clippers nothing, or next to nothing, Del Negro will need to be very, very creative to compensate. What was that sound? Oh, just Clippers Nation collectively gulping.

 

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CNNSI.com

Five-minute guide to '12-13 season


A look at what the next eight months will bring:

Trending this season
• LeBron James' growing confidence. He led the Heat to his first NBA championship and the United States to his second Olympic gold medal. He's 27, he's peaking, and this promises to be his best season yet.

• The big (markets) get bigger. One of the causes of the 2011 lockout was the battle between owners in the small markets vs. the big markets. New York has added a second franchise and both are loaded with high-profile talent; the Clippers filled themselves out with charismatic experience and the Lakers more than overcame the nixing of the Chris Paul trade by landing Steve Nash and Dwight Howard. If Derrick Rose were healthy, the five franchises from the three biggest markets would all be aiming to win 50 or more games this season. So good luck to Oklahoma City.

• Age over inexperience. As James launches his 10th season, he underlines the eternal NBA lesson of how difficult it is to win with youthful athleticism. The Heat, Lakers, Celtics and Knicks are all heavily experienced teams with crucial players who are, for the most part, leaning toward retirement. Again, good luck to Oklahoma City.

• David Stern's long farewell. For the next 15 months there will be much talk of who he is and what he has done while introducing fans to this important question: Who is Adam Silver?

• The countdown to LeBron's free agency. It has begun already and this time for good reason -- because James is now without argument the best player in the game, and if he opts out in 2014 the stakes will be higher than ever.


Awards

• MVP: LeBron James, Heat. He should feel possessive of this award, and no one else should be able to lay a hand on it for the next few years.

• Rookie of the Year: Anthony Davis, Hornets. No one has had a better head start: At 19, he has won an NCAA championship and an Olympic gold medal, and he is playing for a terrific coach in New Orleans' Monty Williams.

• Coach of the Year: George Karl, Nuggets. He can't claim to have a traditional high-scoring superstar on his roster, but Karl's bullet-train Nuggets will be challenging the big names all season.

• Defensive Player of the Year: Dwight Howard, Lakers. It is going to be very difficult to score around the Lakers' basket this season.

• Most Improved Player: Kawhi Leonard, Spurs. A strong rookie season will serve as the foundation to a breakout year as the Spurs continue to reinvent themselves.

• Sixth Man Award: Jason Kidd, Knicks. If I'm right about the Knicks as a conference finalist this season, then no bench player will serve a more important role than Kidd. New York is depending on him to marry the games of Carmelo Anthony and Amar'e Stoudemire.

• Executive of the Year: Mitch Kupchak, Lakers. Early voting should be enabled for this award.



All-NBA teams

This season the NBA has ended the requirement of including a center on each All-Star team, and I'm following that new format. The next step is to provide the option to list three guards when necessary. Dwyane Wade deserves to be among the top 15 players in what has become a backcourt-driven league, but there simply isn't enough room.

FIRST TEAM
F LeBron James
F Kevin Durant
F Dwight Howard
G Kobe Bryant
G Russell Westbrook

SECOND TEAM
F Kevin Love
F Carmelo Anthony
F Andre Iguodala
G Deron Williams
G Steve Nash

THIRD TEAM
F Josh Smith
F Kevin Garnett
F Blake Griffin
G Chris Paul
G Rajon Rondo


Those facing major challenges

• Eric Gordon, Hornets: He wanted to sign with Phoenix, then came to camp in New Orleans with lingering knee issues. Will he win over Hornets fans?

• Andrew Bynum, 76ers: Must become the go-to guy in Philadelphia. He should put up numbers (health permitting), but will he lead his new team to an improved record?

• Steve Nash and Jason Kidd, Lakers and Knicks: At ages 38 and 39, respectively, they must pull together the richest teams in the league.

• Derrick Rose and Ricky Rubio, Bulls and Timberwolves: These two young point guards are aiming to return from ACL surgeries, and the success of their teams depends on them.

• Doc Rivers, Celtics coach: He is being asked to develop the future roster while maintaining the window of contention for Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce and Jason Terry.

• Ray Allen, Heat: He left the Celtics to sign with Boston's enemy, and now he must help the Heat win the championship while being heckled by his former team.

 

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Five-minute guide to '12-13 season (cont.)


• The Spurs: They were dealt another frustrating playoff loss last season, but the NBA's most resilient franchise always come back for more.

• Vinny Del Negro, Clippers coach: He was responsible for the Clippers' second playoff series victory in 36 years -- and the rumors of his demise indicate that the organization is impatient with him to turn the team instantly into a title contender.

• Mark Cuban, Mavericks owner: He has earned the benefit of the doubt, but this season of continuing transition promises to be difficult for a franchise that expects excellence.

• Russell Westbrook, Thunder: No young star has improved more in a short time, and yet few stars are under more pressure. Instead of receiving credit for the meteoric rise of his team, Westbrook receives the blame when the Thunder fall short.

• Rob Hennigan: If the plan is to tear down and start over, then the new Orlando general manager must unload contracts swiftly while dealing with the aftermath of Dwight Howard's exit.

• Jeremy Lin: Can he fulfill the standards demanded by his new salary and last season's extraordinary performances?


Good buys and goodbyes?
Will these talents be available this season?

• Jose Calderon, Raptors: The acquisition of Kyle Lowry affirmed Toronto's intention to unload the expiring $10.6 million salary of their respected point guard.

• Josh Smith, Hawks: Joe Johnson was moved, and will Smith be the next to go?

• Carlos Boozer, Bulls: He's viewed as an amnesty candidate, and if Rose's return is stalled and the Bulls struggle, Boozer may be moved sooner than later.

• Anderson Varejao, Cavaliers: The complementary big man is guaranteed $21.4 million over the next three seasons and his defense could help a contender.

• Richard Jefferson, Warriors: If Harrison Barnes and Klay Thompson turn out to be the future, where does that leave Jefferson with two years and $21.2 million on the books?

• Kevin Martin, Rockets: He's in the final year of his deal at $12.4 million.

• Steve Blake or Chris Duhon, Lakers: It would make sense for the Lakers to keep both of their backup point guards as insurance against injury, but they may be seeking to limit their luxury tax.

• James Harden, Thunder: If OKC is unable to sign him to an extension, will this young Olympian be moved preemptively? It's unlikely. But rivals are watching closely.

• Orlando Magic roster: This is a franchise of high ambition that needs to recover from the Howard fiasco as quickly as possible.

• Nicolas Batum, Trail Blazers: If Portland is suffering, it would not be a surprise to find the Blazers seeking to move his expensive contract at the deadline.

• Tyreke Evans, Kings: The Kings haven't extended him, so will they move him?

• Paul Millsap, Jazz: Can Utah afford to keep all four of its big men (Millsap, Al Jefferson, Derrick Favors and Enes Kanter)? Rivals view Millsap as the one to be dealt.


Instant title contenders
They've set themselves apart from the rest of the league:

1. Heat: The favorite until proved otherwise.

2. Lakers: An L.A.-Miami Finals would be the NBA's best since the '80s.

3. Thunder: Their underdog status vs. the Lakers will help them.


Other teams that must win now

1. Celtics: Three stars 35 or older.

2. Knicks: Carmelo Anthony must elevate to title contention in year 10 of his career.

3. Nets: They won't win the title, but they should compete with the Knicks.

4. Clippers: This team has complementary experience in depth.

5. Grizzlies: A new ownership group promises change across the board -- unless the current Grizzlies prove themselves worthy.

Teams built for tomorrow

1. Thunder: Patience should be the ultimate virtue for this young franchise.

2. Nuggets: They'll be young and fun this year.

3. Hawks: Joe Johnson's departure promises more transition for Atlanta.

4. Raptors: Toronto is developing a solid foundation.

5. Jazz: Utah has the NBA's best young frontcourt.


Favorites to win the lottery

1. Magic: The No. 1 pick should be the goal.

2. Bobcats: The No. 1 pick should be the goal.

3. Kings: The No. 1 pick will have to be the goal.

4. Rockets: Rockets may back into the No. 1 pick.

5. Trail Blazers: They don't want to hear it, but the Blazers will be in the running.

 

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CNNSI.com


Best-case, worst-case scenarios for every Western Conference team


DALLAS MAVERICKS

Best case: A plucky bunch of veterans give one of the West’s top seeds a good run in a playoff series, but fall victim to their own limitations.
Worst case: Dirk Nowitzki spends much of the season fighting through knee pain, nudging Dallas out of the playoff race entirely and casting the Mavs’ immediate future in doubt.

The unfortunate reality for the Mavericks is this: Even if everything goes according to plan, they’ll merely have a top-10 defense and a competent offense in a conference that demands much more. The Lakers, Thunder and Spurs loom over all, and though Donnie Nelson and Mark Cuban did a tremendous job in cobbling together a competitive (and financially flexible) roster at a moment’s notice, this team doesn’t have the aptitude to escape the shadow of those contenders.

To make matters worse: If Nowitzki’s injury and absence drag on longer than expected, the early-season Mavs could find themselves rudderless and on the wrong side of .500. That alone may be enough to edge Dallas out of the postseason, or pave the way for more troubling concerns over Nowitzki’s long-term production.