Tan Jee Say and Tan Cheng Bock in Talks

[scroobal]

Bro, even in a straight fight , the heavy machinary has already been rolled out by the Govt to support TT. Keynote speakers have been sidelines to allow TT to have his profile raised. Shanmugam running interference. There is heavy lobbying going on behind the scenes - clans, NTUC, social groups etc.

If only approve TCB and TT, TT may lose. Because TCB may get 30-40% of the PAP votes, plus oppo votes. Throw in the other 2 to split oppo votes and pin down TCB, TT wil win.

 

[scroobal]

No one might withdraw if the other 3 realise that the best permutation or outcome will help reduce TT's votes belwo the 50% mark. A slap in the face to TT.

The guessing starts. Who will volunteer to withdraw? At least one of the them has to withdraw to stand a chance of winning against Tony Tan.

 

[scroobal]

I found this an interesting phenomenon. First time such a thing has presented itself. It will interesting to see how it pans out. The only issue is that they might not reveal why they made a certain decision.

Agree TCB and TJS seem to have their hearts in the right place. Lets see how it works out.

 

[scroobal]

Actually they do but it serves their purpose of having him. The law is written is such away that committee has wide interpretation powers. The point to remember is if TKL does not qualify, then TJS certainly will not.

I am begging to think that the we now have a refined elephant back in the room as in Harbans, MG Guru, Seow etc. As I mentioned before, the 2 of the committee members are very close to Nathan. One was his subordinate, the other is his daughter's boss. And they are all joined at the hip to "save Singapore from Singaporeans." Which goes to your earlier point in your first post about allowing 4 people as the best option for them.

The problem here is they have no good reasons to disqualify TKL. Thus they have to choose option two.

Goh Meng Seng

 

[scroobal]

I think he has been found out and the recent statement by NTUC is damaging.

Kin Lian expect the game to be fair to him - but he never play fair when dealing with his managers and sacking people he don't like in NTUC. (eg Anthony Chan's predecessor)

He only want well-behaved and orderly voters and pretty girls. Just remember that he and only he will have the correct answers. Using his humble beginning is another appeal to humble uneducated chinese speakers.

His son is even more "humble".

 

[scroobal]

Not necessarily. For the Anson By_elections, Chiam See Tong graciously withdrew from the contest to allow JBJ to have a clean run. It earned plenty of credit. Harbans refused and got less than 300 votes.

These are careful decisions and withdrawal does not spell weakness or indecisiveness. It may reflect how smart or matured the person is.

After all that hoo-ha to gain qualification, anyone who is giving up at this stage before nomination day is just a joke on themselves and undermining the seriousness of the PE, and definitely be a few slashes across their reputation.

 

[scroobal]

Yes, an entire industry now qualifies. I am wondering whether the committee was pressured or guided.

Indeed. Now, a precedent is set such that we suddenly have many MDs that are in fund management business (managing over $100mil) eligible to be EPs?

 

[scroobal]

This single remark of yours is very pertinent for the negotiations.

yes, you need Cheng Bock to stay in the contest to split the PAP votes.

 

[MightyMouse]

Yes, an entire industry now qualifies. I am wondering whether the committee was pressured or guided.

Most definitely guided to suit current circumstances. By allowing TJS to compete, there is a Non-Zero chance of a 4-corner fight. By disallowing him, then TT would definitely face a riskier 3-corner situation.

Anyway, ST already saying the decision of this PEC is not binding on subsequent PEC. There is also an option, also mentioned in the article, to amend the constitution to tighten up the criteria (in case TJS withdraws this round and want to make a comeback 6 years later). Really useful to have the ability to change the constitution at will.

 

[jw5]

Really hope the talks work out.
A 4 way is almost a sure win for TT, even if he goes below 40%.
3 way or 2 way the other guy still got hope. Don't mind if TCB or TJS stays.
However if it's TT vs TKL, I'm afraid it's TT for me. :o

 

[HedgeTrader]

I think TCB will split TT votes and TJS will split TKL votes. The winning president will be a minority president with less than 50% majority. No mandate one. Formula for laughing stock. I'll spoil vote.

 

[Perspective]

The only way to prevent TT from getting the full 60% of PAP votes is to have TCB in the race. As the only opposition, TJS will get the bulk of the 15% who will vote for any opposition. A TCB candidate with TJS support and the Presidency may swing away from PAP for the first time in history. The only issue is TJS gains nothing in the end and the only way is to offer a VP. But I don't know how much power a President has to appoint a VP etc.

 

[Liquigas]

My take on the issue ...

If TT takes on TCB or TJS in a 2-corner fight, then TT will probably lose by 40:60

If there is a 3-corner battle, then TT will win by the 40% that he is expecting to garner because the other 2 Tans will split the 60%

I am leaving out TKL because he is a peripheral figure now in this contest.

The ruling party leaves nothing to chance ; after issuing 4 coe, they know it will not be a two-horse race....

So the winner is ...... and the answer is obvious isn't it?

 

[jw5]

The only way to prevent TT from getting the full 60% of PAP votes is to have TCB in the race. As the only opposition, TJS will get the bulk of the 15% who will vote for any opposition. A TCB candidate with TJS support and the Presidency may swing away from PAP for the first time in history. The only issue is TJS gains nothing in the end and the only way is to offer a VP. But I don't know how much power a President has to appoint a VP etc.

Forget about VP. TJS should form his own party in preparation for 2016.
There will be certainly be others who will join him from other parties. We already can guess who some of these will be and some of these are excellent candidates and potential grc winners.
Maybe some will also come out from "retirement" and join him.
Maybe Perspective also. :o

 

[annexa]

Actually, the PAP votes is nearer 50-55%. The real data is in the East areas. I am basing my analysis on the only 3 corner fight this GE. SDA Desmond got the clearest message that Singaporeans KNOW who and what quality they are voting for. With that in mind, we look at the oppo candidates in East and West and you see the difference. The oppos in the West are considered very weak in quality compared to those in the East. And the vote count attest to this. The West contributes to PAP vote bank so much, it pulled up PAP % from 50+% to 60.1%.

So if you throw in TCB and TJS, where the people know the quality, the result will be nearer the East results. That is why I say PAP vote share is really 50-55% max. Not 60%. And we must remember that TCB stronghold is in Ayer Rajah, smack right in the West of PAP vote bank. What does that mean? It means TCB has a very strong chance to challenge TT to very very draw to a close 50-50 vote count.

TJS is strong only to vocal internet people. They are strong group, but when you count how many they are, you will be disappointed how small the number is. But I still like TJS. I like his economics proposal, I like his personality. Just that this time, is not his time. I support him to continue to contest all future elections.

TKL, seriously he has damaged himself too much. I don't know what to say.

The only way to prevent TT from getting the full 60% of PAP votes is to have TCB in the race. As the only opposition, TJS will get the bulk of the 15% who will vote for any opposition. A TCB candidate with TJS support and the Presidency may swing away from PAP for the first time in history. The only issue is TJS gains nothing in the end and the only way is to offer a VP. But I don't know how much power a President has to appoint a VP etc.

 

[GoldenDragon]

TKL is an unknown quality and quite erratic. He has rubbed enough people the wrong way and I think he shot himself in the foot too many times to even be constructive in any negotiations. These guys are smart and they might work out a solution and then approach TKL. For TKL unless he is going to lose his deposit ( which he has stated a few times which will come from his pocket) the run will be free still be good for him for the next GE. After all he has been collecting funds from the public. No skin off his back unless he gets thrashed badly. Anyway people like Freddy Neo will like to have their find at the expense of others.

Just curious - If TKL is offered $$$ to withdraw by known/unknown parties, is that unlawful or illegal?

 

[GoldenDragon]

Yes, an entire industry now qualifies. I am wondering whether the committee was pressured or guided.

I am sure LKY was consulted on this matter and his concurrence sought. If TT loses, it is another slap on LKY's face.

 

[Perspective]

Forget about VP. TJS should form his own party in preparation for 2016.
There will be certainly be others who will join him from other parties. We already can guess who some of these will be and some of these are excellent candidates and potential grc winners.
Maybe some will also come out from "retirement" and join him.
Maybe Perspective also. :o

No matter what, TJS has to be TCB's campaign manager for the TCB power to work. Else, more votes go to TKL. For the sake of TT not winning and TCB winning, TJS needs to support TCB fully and TKL needs to get low enough to lose his deposit.

Perspective is still more interested in plurality and at the same time parties with seats. At the baseline, all parties are the same. The difference lies the numbers and the diversity.

 

[jujim]

My dream contest:-

TT vs TCB (backed and fully endorsed by TJS)


I am sure that amongst the hardcore 30%, "Anyone But Tony" is much bigger than "Anyone But PAP Related Or I Spoilt".

The bigger issue is the soft/undecided/indifferent/"whatever label" 40% who are "persuaded" to vote for "right one for the Office as it is now".

Balance 30% will vote white/purple even if the sky falls on them.

 

[jw5]

No matter what, TJS has to be TCB's campaign manager for the TCB power to work. Else, more votes go to TKL. For the sake of TT not winning and TCB winning, TJS needs to support TCB fully and TKL needs to get low enough to lose his deposit.

Perspective is still more interested in plurality and at the same time parties with seats. At the baseline, all parties are the same. The difference lies the numbers and the diversity.

Oh of course, TJS has to throw his support behind TCB and bring his supporters along, otherwise TCB will have no chance with TKL in the race.

On your second para, you know all parties are not the same, come on. :o
Imagining being in the same grc team as TJS, Michelle, Nicole and Jeanette agianst one led by LSS or LTY.
With the diverse yet likeable profiles of these chaps and the continued influx of useless foreigners, you might as well be carving your names on your chairs in parliament.