Taiwan’s Military Is a Hollow Shell

[TerrexLee]

As threats of military aggression from China grow, the island nation of Taiwan needs a credible military deterrent more than ever. But Taiwan’s military is in a crisis it can barely admit exists.

Even as the military refits itself with flashy U.S. arms purchases, such as M1 Abrams tanks and F-16V fighter jets, its front-line units are hollowed out, and the entire reserve system is so dysfunctional that few experts or serving military personnel believe it can make a real military contribution in the event of a war. These problems are well documented but continue to be downplayed, if not outright ignored, by Taiwan’s political leadership—and there is no clear plan to solve the crisis.

On paper, Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense (MND) has 215,000 budgeted positions among all branches, of which 188,000 are soldiers and the rest civilian employees. Only 153,000 of those positions were filled in 2018—just 81 percent of the personnel the military should have. But even that number doesn’t tell the complete story.

According to a Taiwanese army lieutenant colonel in active service, who asked for only his last name, Lin, to be used, all the army’s front-line combat units he knows of—including armor, mechanized infantry, and artillery troops—currently have effective manpower levels of between 60 and 80 percent. This figure is consistent with Taiwanese media reports, which cite MND figures provided to Taiwan’s parliament, the Legislative Yuan, acknowledging that few front-line units have more than 80 percent of their positions filled.

“That number might not seem so bad until you realize it means at least a third of your tanks are useless in a war because there’s no one to man them,” said Lin, who most recently served as a battalion commander within one of army’s armor brigades.

The personnel shortfalls are a clear consequence of the ill-executed transition from conscription to an all-volunteer military over the past few years. It was a political decision made during Ma Ying-jeou’s administration and continued by current President Tsai Ing-wen, despite their coming from different parties. And despite Tsai’s tough rhetoric about defending Taiwan during her successful recent reelection bid, and her vow to thwart Chinese aggression, she has shown no sign of stepping in to fix the problems.

More at https://tinyurI.com/y2bx39uy

 

[Hypocrite-The]

All the more reason for the chicoms to invade. So why the chicoms dont invade?

 

[kaninabuchaojibye]

it's impossible to defend this hokkien land without us help

 

[glockman]

The United States has long been a guarantor of Taiwan’s security, and will continue to play a pivotal role in Taiwan’s defense transformation in the 21st century.

A long-standing security partnership

The security relationship between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the United States is built on a strong foundation with a long history reaching back as early as World War II. The American Volunteer Group (the celebrated Flying Tigers) led by General Claire Chennault, the U.S. Naval Group China (Sino-American Cooperative Organization, SACO) led by Admiral Milton Miles, and the cooperation in land operations between Chinese, British and American forces in South Asia against the Japanese in the China-Burma-India (CBI) Theater in the early 1940s are the most famous and commemorative episodes of cooperation between the two countries.

Sixty years later, when the Service Coordination Division (the defense attaché’s office) in the American Institute in Taiwan (AIT) Taipei Office combined the “CBI patch” and the “flying tiger” graphic as its logo, the heritage of U.S.-ROC security cooperation was seen as revived and consolidated, and the long lasting military-to-military relationship between Taiwan and the U.S. was given a new spirit.

https://www.brookings.edu/opinions/the-united-states-and-taiwans-defense-transformation/

 

[rushifa666]

Peopoe just dont get what cold war means do they

 

[Papsmearer]

The Taiwanese know that for all the PRC sabre rattling, there is no way in hell they will invade Taiwan. The largest foreign investors in Taiwan is China and the China is the number investment destination for Taiwanese companies. The Chinese love for money over rides all desires for war. Every one knows this. China rattles the sabre now and then to show the world they are the big brother. But both countries know that no invasion is coming and Taiwanese are not interested in wasting money on military like the PAP is. Even with what the Taiwanese have now, any chinese amphibious invasion will result in very heavy losses for the Chinese. An unacceptable consequence for the chinese people to see their govt attack another chinese country. Its different if the Russians or Indians attack china. then it will be their patriotic duty to die for and defend china. But going to attack another chinese country over dubious shit it not acceptable in the new chinese reality.

 

[sleaguepunter]

The Taiwanese know that for all the PRC sabre rattling, there is no way in hell they will invade Taiwan. The largest foreign investors in Taiwan is China and the China is the number investment destination for Taiwanese companies. The Chinese love for money over rides all desires for war. Every one knows this. China rattles the sabre now and then to show the world they are the big brother. But both countries know that no invasion is coming and Taiwanese are not interested in wasting money on military like the PAP is. Even with what the Taiwanese have now, any chinese amphibious invasion will result in very heavy losses for the Chinese. An unacceptable consequence for the chinese people to see their govt attack another chinese country. Its different if the Russians or Indians attack china. then it will be their patriotic duty to die for and defend china. But going to attack another chinese country over dubious shit it not acceptable in the new chinese reality.

ROC current government reject investors that have ccp as shareholders. So the idea of ccp don’t want their investments got destroyed won’t happen. As for ccp won’t attack the taiwan island, I not so sure. Especially the ccp media had been prepping the ah Tiongs that invasion is need to preserve national integrity. The 50 cents gang is doing the same stufff over the net. It 3-4 years since ccp start brainwashing.
Trump now replaced by Biden. So will the military hardwares MOU signed during trump reign be fulfill by Biden is a question mark.
The ROC military are low morale. Only 40% of the mirage still fly worthy. Every years confirm have at least 1 aircraft crush resulting in death of aircrews. Only last year a new Blackhawk crashed with the chief of staff on board. One crash killed 3 senior officers together with senior noncom and whole crew.

 

[syed putra]

All the more reason for the chicoms to invade. So why the chicoms dont invade?

Because chicom tanks are made of cardboard.
Taiwan an easily fill the position in the army if they had guven 8ncentives yo orang asli to join the army,
You do not need a degree in mathematics to man the tanks and fly the planes. It's comes intuitively. Learn as it goes.
It's the orang asli that will fight to the death to defend their homeland,

 

[Hypocrite-The]

Because chicom tanks are made of cardboard.
Taiwan an easily fill the position in the army if they had guven 8ncentives yo orang asli to join the army,
You do not need a degree in mathematics to man the tanks and fly the planes. It's comes intuitively. Learn as it goes.
It's the orang asli that will fight to the death to defend their homeland,

Not needed.. as ah tiong chicoms won't invade fuckein land. If they could..they would have years ago

 

[Papsmearer]

ROC current government reject investors that have ccp as shareholders. So the idea of ccp don’t want their investments got destroyed won’t happen. As for ccp won’t attack the taiwan island, I not so sure. Especially the ccp media had been prepping the ah Tiongs that invasion is need to preserve national integrity. The 50 cents gang is doing the same stufff over the net. It 3-4 years since ccp start brainwashing.
Trump now replaced by Biden. So will the military hardwares MOU signed during trump reign be fulfill by Biden is a question mark.
The ROC military are low morale. Only 40% of the mirage still fly worthy. Every years confirm have at least 1 aircraft crush resulting in death of aircrews. Only last year a new Blackhawk crashed with the chief of staff on board. One crash killed 3 senior officers together with senior noncom and whole crew.

Many of the big China companies have no CCP investment. U think the CCP take a cut of every private business in China? Where did u get that idea from?They are free to invest anywhere in the world. Just look at the stats on china investments in ROC. The CHinese have their hands full preserving national integrity on their border with India. And also in Tibet. They are benefiting from big taiwanese investments on the mainland. What would a costly invasion do? Bring 50 years of guerilla warfare and terrorism to them? China does not want to be an occupying force in taiwan and face intifada there every year. Taiwanese people are very independent. If they can fight and kick out the Kuomintang from power, they will fight a guerilla battle with occupying PLA. China does not want that. aircraft crash all the time. accidents happen all the time. the rsaf lost lot of planes in the past, i don't see them having a low morale. The Taiwanese mirages are at least 22 years old. U can't seriously expect a 100% reliability record from them. 40% for a plane that old is pretty good.

 

[sleaguepunter]

Many of the big China companies have no CCP investment. U think the CCP take a cut of every private business in China? Where did u get that idea from?They are free to invest anywhere in the world. Just look at the stats on china investments in ROC. The CHinese have their hands full preserving national integrity on their border with India. And also in Tibet. They are benefiting from big taiwanese investments on the mainland. What would a costly invasion do? Bring 50 years of guerilla warfare and terrorism to them? China does not want to be an occupying force in taiwan and face intifada there every year. Taiwanese people are very independent. If they can fight and kick out the Kuomintang from power, they will fight a guerilla battle with occupying PLA. China does not want that. aircraft crash all the time. accidents happen all the time. the rsaf lost lot of planes in the past, i don't see them having a low morale. The Taiwanese mirages are at least 22 years old. U can't seriously expect a 100% reliability record from them. 40% for a plane that old is pretty good.

Do u see ROC news channels? There were many instances of Tsai government rejecting joint investment from Hongkong companies due to Red funds.
Low morale for whole military not just air force. Regular were demonized by green media. They are call 米蟲 by the general public. Personnel in uniform are look down by civilians, only now Tsai because become the president the green media scale down their attack. Pension for military retirees are cut and I am a bit surprised a ROC major salary only TWD 60-70k which under S$3500. 20 years ago a saf captain get around $3000 at least.

 

[Hypocrite-The]

Commentary: How China will try to subdue Taiwan – without firing a bullet
The US is once again warning that China might invade Taiwan, but a more gradualist approach by Beijing seems more likely, says Christian Le Miere.
A Taiwanese coast guard officer looks at a sand-dredging ship with a Chinese flag in the waters off the Taiwan-controlled Matsu Islands on Jan 28, 2021. (File photo: Reuters/Ann Wang)Bookmark
LONDON: Twenty-five years ago, war over Taiwan seemed imminent.
Chinese missiles flew in the direction of Taiwan and a US aircraft carrier sailed through the Taiwan Strait in a defiant signal of resolve.
Now, tensions are rising over Taiwan again. China has increased aerial and naval patrols around Taiwan and this week, Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said in a warning to Beijing “it would be a serious mistake for anyone to try to change [the] status quo by force.”
The public discourse has started to imply war over Taiwan may again be a possibility. Speaking in early March, commander of the US Indo-Pacific Command, Admiral Phil Davidson, suggested that China might launch an invasion of Taiwan within six years.
But these assessments are misleading. Although Beijing’s desire to reunify with Taiwan remains strong, and China has channelled resources to put pressure on Taiwan, it knows the cost of any invasion of Taiwan are incredibly prohibitive and could lead to a long-drawn conflict.
Rather, China is more likely to pursue a gradualist approach, slowly eroding Taiwanese sovereignty. Rather than a bloody war, China will most probably look to “salami slice” its way to reunification.
READ: Commentary: US-China ties are set to worsen, before they get better
TAIWANESE DETERRENCE
Since the Kuomintang retreated to Taiwan in 1949, reunification has been a primary policy goal for Beijing. But over 70 years, the island has been able to maintain sufficient military deterrence to make an invasion seem too costly or difficult to achieve.
Despite having a population just 2 per cent the size of China’s, US support, rapid economic growth in the latter half of the 20th century and outsized investment in defence has enabled Taiwan to maintain a qualitative military edge over China for decades.
United States Secretary of State Antony Blinken speaks during a media conference at NATO headquarters in Brussels on Apr 14, 2021. (Photo: AP/Kenzo Tribouillard)
For Beijing, focused on defence of its own borders and often consumed by internal instability, from the Great Leap Forward to the Cultural Revolution, an invasion of Taiwan seemed like an unwise task.
However, the opening of China’s economy in the late 1970s, subsequent rapid growth and an effective military industrialisation strategy have seen China leapfrog defence technology development. The military deterrence that Taiwan once possessed is being worn down.
Some estimates suggest the PLA is now not just numerically superior, but technologically on a par with Taiwan, meaning that a war across the Taiwan Strait would likely end in China’s favour.
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Sign me upREAD: Commentary: China’s cheap drones are finally taking off, with many uses and huge implications
But such studies ignore the reality that even a relatively successful invasion of Taiwan will require a bloody, costly campaign.
Taiwan sits 100 miles off China’s coast, across open water where Chinese vessels would be vulnerable to missile and torpedo attack.
Taipei has also vowed to pepper China’s coastline with missile salvoes; the 2021 Quadrennial Defence Review, released in March, noted that the island’s strategy would be to “resist the enemy on the opposite shore, attack it at sea, destroy it in the littoral area, and annihilate it on the beachhead.”
China would likely lose tens of thousands, if not hundreds of thousands, of troops, to say nothing about the impossible task of pacifying an island of 23.5 million Taiwanese who would likely resist Chinese occupation.
Moreover, while China might be able to launch a successful invasion of Taiwan, the outcome is less certain if the US commits immediately and resolutely to Taiwan’s defence. US nuclear-powered submarines, carrier strike groups and missile forces throughout the region will make any cross-strait operation even more treacherous.
READ: Commentary: They already have jet bombers and super missiles. Will Chinese fighter jets be more powerful than America’s soon?
For the CCP, regaining Taiwan is a defining priority, but losing a war over Taiwan is a regime-threatening event.
SALAMI SLICING TAIWAN
The alternative, and less risky, path to war for Beijing is therefore to use a strategy that has been successful elsewhere: Salami slicing.
The Taiwan Strait. (Photo: AP)
In salami slicing, small, incremental changes are made to move towards a larger goal. Those small changes are insignificant enough to fall short of a reason for war, but when added together start to definitively change the facts on the ground.
In China’s near-seas, this process has involved a massive increase in the patrols of Chinese military, paramilitary and commercial vessels, island reclamation and more overflights of aircraft.
These tactics work on land and sea – on its mountainous border with India, China has built a string of villages in disputed territory to create a fait accompli of occupation.
READ: Commentary: China's boycott of H&M, Nike and other big brands is really bizarre
With Taiwan, a similar salami slicing strategy is already in process. In recent years, China has successfully eroded decades-long norms about Taiwanese air zones. In 2016, China began frequent circumnavigational flights of the island. In 2019, regular incursions by Chinese military aircraft across the median line between the two entities began.
In the 60 years prior to this, just one intentional crossings of the median line had occurred; now they are commonplace. In September 2020, 37 aircraft crossed the line.
And Chinese aircraft crossed into Taiwan’s air defence identification zones a record 380 times in 2020, the most since the 1996 Taiwan Strait crisis. On Apr 13, the largest incursion yet, of 25 aircraft, occurred.
Such flights are becoming so commonplace Taiwan has stopped scrambling jets to every Chinese incursion. It has become too costly to do so. By October 2020, Taiwan had scrambled 2,972 times against Chinese aircraft that year.
A H-6 bomber of the Chinese People's Liberation Army Air Force flying near a Taiwan F-16 in a Feb 10, 2020 handout photo. (Photo: Reuters)
The same is happening at sea. China’s first aircraft carrier, the Liaoning, had exercised off the coast of Taiwan in early April. By November 2020, Taiwanese vessels had intercepted Chinese ships 1,223 times – a 50 per cent increase over the previous year.
Beijing has already started to shift the expectations of behaviour and created a new normal where the presence of Chinese military aircraft and vessels is routine, even expected.
In the wake of the new Chinese Coast Guard Law in February, Taiwanese analysts have warned harassment of Taiwanese vessels by China’s paramilitary force may be next. Sun Tzu-yun of Taiwan’s Institute for National Defence and Security Research noted at a mid-March forum that such grey zone tactics would be harder to counteract.

 

[blackmondy]

All the more reason for the chicoms to invade. So why the chicoms dont invade?

No money.
No balls.
No trust in tiong-made military equipment.
Empty vessels make the most noise.
Dogs that bark a lot cannot bite.

 

[mojito]

u see? U SEE? This what happens when you remove NS!

 

[KuanTi01]

Because chicom tanks are made of cardboard.
Taiwan an easily fill the position in the army if they had guven 8ncentives yo orang asli to join the army,
You do not need a degree in mathematics to man the tanks and fly the planes. It's comes intuitively. Learn as it goes.
It's the orang asli that will fight to the death to defend their homeland,

You fantasise too much!

 

[batman1]

To sidetrack a bit, is Singapore's military a hollow shell ?

 

[blackmondy]

To sidetrack a bit, is Singapore's military a hollow shell ?

AssAF is a hollow nothing. The shell is not even there.

 

[batman1]

AssAF is a hollow nothing. The shell is not even there.

Got lah,go starlight in Taiwan.

 

[Froggy]

 

[Hypocrite-The]

Fuckeins Islands is fucked

South China Sea: maritime militia explainer
Chinese vessels are moored at Whitsun Reef, South China Sea.
Chinese vessels - believed to be from its maritime militia - are moored at Whitsun Reef in the South China Sea. (Philippine Coast Guard)
The apparent militia made headlines last month when more than 200 Chinese fishing boats crowded around Whitsun Reef, a Philippine possession in the Spratly Island chain in the South China Sea.

Analysts at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) in Singapore say they've never seen a Chinese operation of this size before.

"The Whitsun Reef incident is unprecedented in scale and notable for its duration: the largest numbers of Chinese fishing vessels gathered at any time at one Spratly reef, and staying there for several weeks," Samir Puri and Greg Austin, both senior fellows at the IISS, wrote last week on the organisation's blog.

The Philippines protested the Whitsun incident to Beijing, calling the boats a "swarming and threatening presence" and saying the flotilla was infringing on Philippine territory and fishing grounds. Manila demanded the Chinese boats leave the area, which it maintains is in an exclusive economic zone.

Beijing countered that the boats, which numbered 220 at one point, according to the Philippines Government, were simply escaping rough seas.

How does the Chinese Maritime Militia work?
Despite Chinese government denials, there is little ambiguity in Western circles about what the Pentagon calls the People's Armed Forces Maritime Militia (PAFMM).

"The People's Armed Forces Maritime Militia don't fish," Carl Schuster, a former director of operations at the US Pacific Command's Joint Intelligence Centre, said.

"They have automatic weapons aboard and reinforced hulls, making them very dangerous at close range.

"Also, they have a top speed of around 18 to 22 knots, making them faster than 90 per cent of the world's fishing boats."

Some experts have taken to referring to the militia as "Little Blue Men", a reference to the colour of their boats' hulls and to Russia's "Little Green Men," soldiers in unmarked green uniforms who infiltrated Crimea before Moscow annexed it from Ukraine in 2014.

"The Maritime Militia is used by Beijing 'to subvert other nations' sovereignty and enforce unlawful claims,'" a December report from the heads of the US Navy, Marines and Coast Guard said.

"The Militia is a key component of China's Armed Forces and a part of what it calls the 'People's Armed Forces System,'" Conor Kennedy and Andrew Erickson, two leading American experts on the subject, wrote for the US Naval War College in 2017.

It is "a state-organised, -developed, and -controlled force operating under a direct military chain of command to conduct Chinese state-sponsored activities," they added.

The alleged militia is integrated with China's fishing fleet, the world's largest with more than 187,000 boats, Mr Erickson said, but the actual number of armed boats remains unclear to Western experts.

"China is typically secretive about its Third Sea Force (behind the PLA Navy and coast guard), which might conceivably number in the thousands of vessels and in the tens of thousands of personnel. Possibly more," Mr Erickson said.

What is the purpose of a maritime militia?
The concept of a maritime militia, or an irregular naval force, allows China to make territorial claims in huge numbers without ever involving the People's Liberation Army proper, Western experts say.

Even if lead boats are relatively small in number, they can spearhead flotillas in the hundreds - as seen in Whitsun Reef. "These classic 'gray zone' operations are designed to 'win without fighting' by overwhelming the adversary with swarms of fishing vessels," Derek Grossman, a RAND Corp defence analyst, wrote last year.

Jay Batongbacal, director of the Institute for Maritime Affairs at the University of the Philippines, summed up what Beijing has done in recent weeks at Whitsun Reef and recent years across the South China Sea - 3.4 million sq/km of water, almost all of which Beijing claims as Chinese territory.

Philippine government officials released pictures of what they said were 220 Chinese vessels moored at the boomerang-shaped Whitsun Reef (AP)
"They are now essentially occupying Whitsun Reef by the mere presence of their vessels," Mr Batongbacal said in an interview with the US National Public Radio.

"That's actually the objective of the Chinese strategy, to establish de-facto control and dominance over the entire South China Sea through these incremental moves."

From a tactical standpoint, the fishing boats represent hundreds of obstacles an adversary such as the US Navy would have to work around.

And the US Navy could likely only deploy a few destroyers at any one time to challenge them.

That puts huge numbers in China's favour.

"Because they are cheap, fishing vessels will always outnumber warships," Johns Hopkins University researcher Shuxian Luo and Columbia University researcher Jonathan Panter wrote in the US Army's Military Review journal earlier this year.

So even real, unarmed fishing boats acting under the leadership of maritime militia vessels can be an effective military force.

From a strategic standpoint, "challenging these vessels is dangerous," Mr Luo and Mr Panter wrote - especially for other Southeast Asian nations that have claims to features in the South China Sea but don't have the military might to stand up to China.

Mischief Reef in the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea is one artificial reef claimed by Beijing. (Getty images)
And it's not just interactions with US ships that could spark wider conflict.

A statement from the White House said US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan spoke with his Filipino counterpart and said the US-Philippines Mutual Defence Treaty applies in this case.

That would mean any hostile action against Philippine forces or territory by China could bring a US military response.

Countries with the highest military expenditure in the world