Sweden is on the right track - Virus is not going away. Quarantines and lockdowns are futile

[Leongsam]

news.yahoo.com

Coronavirus may never go away: WHO
Robin MILLARD

3 minutes


Geneva (AFP) - The new coronavirus may never go away and populations around the world will have to learn to live with it, the World Health Organization warned Wednesday.

As some countries around the world begin gradually easing lockdown restrictions imposed in a bid to stop the novel coronavirus from spreading, the WHO said it may never be wiped out entirely.

The virus first emerged in Wuhan in China late last year and has since infected more than 4.2 million people and killed nearly 300,000 worldwide.
"We have a new virus entering the human population for the first time and therefore it is very hard to predict when we will prevail over it," said Michael Ryan, the WHO's emergencies director.

"This virus may become just another endemic virus in our communities and this virus may never go away," he told a virtual press conference in Geneva.

"HIV has not gone away -- but we have come to terms with the virus."

More than half of humanity has been put under some form of lockdown since the coronavirus crisis began.

But the WHO warned there was no way to guarantee that easing the restrictions would not trigger a second wave of infections.

"Many countries would like to get out of the different measures," said WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus.

"But our recommendation is still the alert at any country should be at the highest level possible."

- 'Long way to go' -

Ryan added that there was a "long, long way to go" on the path to returning to normal, insisting that countries would have to stay the course.

"There is some magical thinking going on that lockdowns work perfectly and that unlocking lockdowns will go great. Both are fraught with dangers," the Irish epidemiologist said.

Ryan also condemned attacks on healthcare workers that were linked to the pandemic, saying more than 35 "quite serious" such incidents were recorded in April alone in 11 countries.

He said the attacks were often over-reactions from ill-informed communities -- while others were more sinister.

"COVID-19 is bringing out the best in us, but it's also bringing out some of the worst," he said.

"People feel empowered to take out their frustrations on individuals who are purely trying to help.

"These are senseless acts of violence and discrimination that must be resisted."

But he insisted that in finding a way to conquer the virus was a chance for humanity to take major step forward by finding a vaccine and making it widely accessible.
"It's a massive opportunity for the world," Ryan said.

 

[sweetiepie]

KNN once again sorli my uncle need to say again if WHO had listened to his advice by now the world already solved this pandemic KNN that's the price to pay now and more to come KNN
https://www.sammyboy.com/threads/the-only-way-to-stop-a-epidemic-is.281212/

 

[sweetiepie]

The moment when scientists realised this virus is special kind a world lockdown should already been issued KNN you don't need to be good mathematicians to calculate the long term losses vs a short term sacrifice losses this is rike investment you cannot afford to wait KNN now it's already too late KNN

 

[Leongsam]

The moment when scientists realised this virus is special kind a world lockdown should already been issued KNN you don't need to be good mathematicians to calculate the long term losses vs a short term sacrifice losses this is rike investment you cannot afford to wait KNN now it's already too late KNN

This isn't a special virus it's just a normal coronavirus. The other strains have not gone away so why should this one.

Besides you have nothing to worry about because the flu virus is more lethal. Flu kills more than 500 a year in Singapore. Covid-19 has only killed 21 in 3 months.

 

[sweetiepie]

This isn't a special virus it's just a normal coronavirus. The other strains have not gone away so why should this one.

Besides you have nothing to worry about because the flu virus is more lethal. Flu kills more than 500 a year in Singapore. Covid-19 has only killed 21 in 3 months.

Scientist knew that this strain is much more infectious than other strains hence my uncle termed it as special KNN once again flu doesn't have sweeping death over a short period of time KNN an early world lockdown would have avoided a sweeping death KNN

 

[Leongsam]

Scientist knew that this strain is much more infectious than other strains hence my uncle termed it as special KNN once again flu doesn't have sweeping death over a short period of time KNN an early world lockdown would have avoided a sweeping death KNN

Sweeping death??? 21 deaths in 3 months is hardly "sweeping" plus if you look at the infection rates for the dorm dwellers you'll find that hardly any of them have a serious illness. Most of them have no symptoms.

 

[sweetiepie]

Sweeping death??? 21 deaths in 3 months is hardly "sweeping" plus if you look at the infection rates for the dorm dwellers you'll find that hardly any of them have a serious illness. Most of them have no symptoms.

That's only for some cuntry also the statement my uncle would want to correct it as sweeping infections/deaths KNN the usual comments for immediate world lockdown would be - things are not that simple you say until so easy say shutdown immediate shutdown blah blah but that's how thing works KNN know the impact - take immediate corrective action KNN as if now is simple to handle mare and it shall never be simple moving forward KNN

 

[Leongsam]

That's only for some cuntry also the statement my uncle would want to correct it as sweeping infections/deaths KNN the usual comments for immediate world lockdown would be - things are not that simple you say until so easy say shutdown immediate shutdown blah blah but that's how thing works KNN know the impact - take immediate corrective action KNN as if now is simple to handle mare and it shall never be simple moving forward KNN

Shutdowns don't prevent deaths all they do is postpone them to a later date.

 

[sweetiepie]

Shutdowns don't prevent deaths all they do is postpone them to a later date.

KNN isn't life all about postponing death to later date for most of us ? KNN

 

[Leongsam]

KNN isn't life all about postponing death to later date for most of us ? KNN

If you're 20 and you postpone your death till you're 80 that's great.

However what covid-19 does is either kill you now or in 3 month's time after the lockdown is lifted.

What difference does it make?

 

[syed putra]

WHO should have known the moment it leaves Wuhan, its everywhere. So why did they advise on lockdowns.
It should be stop all flights into China only.immediately.

 

[Hypocrite-The]

Well the lockdown has destroyed the economy for nothing. May all those who advocate for the lockdown burn in hell

 

[steffychun]

Just let Greta Shitberg get infected.

 

[syed putra]

Just let Greta Shitberg get infected.

She got what she wanted with the virus.
And with most gahmen still behaving irrational, it could be permanent.

 

[Hypocrite-The]

The lockdown does not work....wuhan being infected again..some lockdowns for wat?

 

[winnipegjets]

This isn't a special virus it's just a normal coronavirus. The other strains have not gone away so why should this one.

Besides you have nothing to worry about because the flu virus is more lethal. Flu kills more than 500 a year in Singapore. Covid-19 has only killed 21 in 3 months.

Covid-19 killed 21 only because of the measures taken lah.

 

[syed putra]

Covid-19 killed 21 only because of the measures taken lah.

Even if its more than that, it will not make much of a difference as before covid.

 

[winnipegjets]

Even if its more than that, it will not make much of a difference as before covid.

If no measures taken, there could have been tens of thousands more case and more deaths. Sam contends 500 death from flu. Covid-19 is showing that deaths from it are much higher.

 

[Thick Face Black Heart]

I AM NOW BEGINNING TO AGREE


Sweden’s Coronavirus Strategy Will Soon Be the World’s
Herd Immunity Is the Only Realistic Option—the Question Is How to Get There Safely
By Nils Karlson, Charlotta Stern, and Daniel B. Klein
May 12, 2020

Students celebrate their graduation in Stockholm, April 2020
Andres Kudacki / The New York Times / Redux
China placed 50 million people under quarantine in Hubei Province in January. Since then, many liberal democracies have taken aggressive authoritarian measures of their own to fight the novel coronavirus. By mid-March, almost all Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries had implemented some combination of school, university, workplace, and public transportation closures; restrictions on public events; and limits on domestic and international travel. One country, however, stands out as an exception in the West.

Rather than declare a lockdown or a state of emergency, Sweden asked its citizens to practice social distancing on a mostly voluntary basis. Swedish authorities imposed some restrictions designed to flatten the curve: no public gatherings of more than 50 people, no bar service, distance learning in high schools and universities, and so on. But they eschewed harsh controls, fines, and policing. Swedes have changed their behavior, but not as profoundly as the citizens of other Western democracies. Many restaurants remain open, although they are lightly trafficked; young children are still in school. And in contrast to neighboring Norway (and some Asian countries), Sweden has not introduced location-tracing technologies or apps, thus avoiding threats to privacy and personal autonomy.

Swedish authorities have not officially declared a goal of reaching herd immunity, which most scientists believe is achieved when more than 60 percent of the population has had the virus. But augmenting immunity is no doubt part of the government’s broader strategy—or at least a likely consequence of keeping schools, restaurants, and most businesses open. Anders Tegnell, the chief epidemiologist at Sweden’s Public Health Agency, has projected that the city of Stockholm could reach herd immunity as early as this month. Based on updated behavioral assumptions (social-distancing norms are changing how Swedes behave), the Stockholm University mathematician Tom Britton has calculated that 40 percent immunity in the capital could be enough to stop the virus’s spread there and that this could happen by mid-June.

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Sweden has won praise in some quarters for preserving at least some semblance of economic normalcy and keeping its per capita death rate lower than those of Belgium, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain, and the United Kingdom. But it has come in for criticism in other quarters for exceeding the per capita death rates of other Nordic countries and in particular, for failing to protect its elderly and immigrant populations. People receiving nursing and elder-care services account for upward of 50 percent of COVID-19 deaths in Sweden, according to Tegnell, in part because many facilities were grievously slow to implement basic protective measures such as mask wearing. Immigrants have also suffered disproportionately, mainly because they are poorer on average and tend to work in the service sector, where working remotely is usually impossible. But Swedish authorities have argued that the country’s higher death rate will appear comparatively lower in hindsight. Efforts to contain the virus are doomed to fail in many countries, and a large percentage of people will be infected in the end. When much of the world experiences a deadly second wave, Sweden will have the worst of the pandemic behind it.


When much of the world experiences a deadly second wave, Sweden will have the worst of the pandemic behind it.
Sweden’s response has not been perfect, but it has succeeded in bolstering immunity among the young and the healthy—those at the lowest risk of serious complications from COVID-19—while also flattening the curve. The country’s intensive care units have not been overrun, and hospital staffs, although under strain, have at least not had to juggle additional childcare responsibilities because daycares and lower schools continue to operate.

Whether or not they have openly embraced the Swedish approach, many other countries are now trying to emulate aspects of it. Both Denmark and Finland have reopened schools for young children. Germany is allowing small shops to reopen. Italy will soon reopen parks, and France has a plan to allow some nonessential businesses to reopen, including farmers’ markets and small museums, as well as schools and daycare centers. In the United States, which has by far the highest absolute number of reported COVID-19 deaths, several states are easing restrictions at the urging of President Donald Trump, who despite bashing the Swedish model, is pushing the country toward something very similar.

There are good reasons for countries to begin easing their restrictions. It will take several years to tally the total number of deaths, bankruptcies, layoffs, suicides, mental health problems, losses to GDP and investments, and other costs attributable not just to the virus but to the measures used to fight it. It should already be obvious, however, that the economic and social costs of lockdowns are enormous: estimates from the OECD suggest that every month of pandemic-related restrictions will shrink the economies of advanced countries by two percent. France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States, according to the OECD, will see their economies shrink by more than 25 percent within a year. Unemployment is rising to levels unheard of since the 1930s—fueling political backlash and deepening social divisions.


Lockdowns are simply not sustainable for the amount of time that it will likely take to develop a vaccine.
Lockdowns are simply not sustainable for the amount of time that it will likely take to develop a vaccine. Letting up will reduce economic, social, and political pressures. It may also allow populations to build an immunity that will end up being the least bad way of fighting COVID-19 in the long run. Much about the disease remains poorly understood, but countries that are locked down now could very well face new and even more severe outbreaks down the road. If these countries follow the Swedish path to herd immunity, the total cost of the pandemic will decrease, and it will likely end sooner.

Sweden’s approach to COVID-19 reflects the country’s distinctive culture, and aspects of it may not be easy to replicate elsewhere. In particular, reliance on official recommendations and individual responsibility may not travel well beyond Scandinavia. Sweden is a special country characterized by high levels of trust—not just between people but between people and government institutions. Swedes were primed to take voluntary recommendations seriously in a way that citizens of other nations may not be.

Swedes are also generally healthier than citizens of many other countries, so additional precautions may be necessary to protect the infirm in other parts of the world. Countries lifting restrictions should also learn from Sweden’s missteps when it comes to the elderly and immigrants: masks and other protective equipment should be made immediately available in nursing homes, and greater emphasis should be placed on protecting service-sector workers who are at higher risk because of age or infirmity. But the emphasis must be on helping at-risk people stay safe and out of harm’s way, not locking entire societies down.

As scientists learn more about the virus and authorities develop new and better ways to work around the contagion—altering the parameters for calculating herd immunity to account for behavioral changes, for instance—the justification for general lockdowns grows weaker and weaker. Even in places like the United States and the United Kingdom, where the pool of at-risk people is much larger, the cost of protecting these people is much lower than forcing everyone to stay home. Managing the path to herd immunity means, above all, protecting the vulnerable. Sweden learned that the hard way, but the situation there is now under control.

As the pain of national lockdowns grows intolerable and countries realize that managing—rather than defeating—the pandemic is the only realistic option, more and more of them will begin to open up. Smart social distancing to keep health-care systems from being overwhelmed, improved therapies for the afflicted, and better protections for at-risk groups can help reduce the human toll. But at the end of the day, increased—and ultimately, herd—immunity may be the only viable defense against the disease, so long as vulnerable groups are protected along the way. Whatever marks Sweden deserves for managing the pandemic, other nations are beginning to see that it is ahead of the curve.

NILS KARLSON is Professor of Political Science at Linköping University and President and CEO of the Ratio Institute.
CHARLOTTA STERN is Professor of Sociology in Work and Organization at Stockholm University and Deputy CEO of the Ratio Institute.
DANIEL B. KLEIN is Professor of Economics and JIN Chair at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University and Associate Fellow of the Ratio Institute.
Copyright © 2020 by the Council on Foreign Relations, Inc.
All rights reserved. To request permission to distribute or reprint this article, please visit ForeignAffairs.com/Permissions.

 

[syed putra]

It is said that 30% of Swedes already had been infected. Maybe it's 40% by now.
Those who perished earlier on will not be included in future fatalities.so number of deaths will drop drastically.
Meanwhile, countries that imposed lockdown, the moment they open up again fatality numbers will increase unless the vulnerable ones are isolated and quarantined.