STI index to crash within the next 3 months...

[god_zeus]

says victor sperandeo, a wall street guru

those holding long positions better think again




in todayonline newspaper
http://imcms2.mediacorp.sg/CMSFileserver/documents/006/pdf/20090611/1106BZL060.pdf


THE way stock markets are
trading now mirrors the situ-
ation during the years of the
Great Depression, says veteran
trader Victor Sperandeo, better
known as “Trader Vic”.
“The crash of 1937 is associ-
ated because it dropped about
the same percentage, about
50 per cent, from peak to trough
in a fairly short period of time.
This is mirrored to the similar pe-
riod between June and October
last year,” Mr Sperandeo said.
After that 1937 plunge in
the United States, which bot-
tomed out in March 1938, US
markets enjoyed a rally of about
60 per cent for the next nine
months, he added.
“The current rally resembles
the rally of 1938,” said the pro-
fessional trader with 40 years’
experience and is chief of US-
based Alpha Financial Technolo-
gies with about US$3.1 billion of
assets under management.
However, using historical
data as a guideline, Mr Sperandeo
also forecasted that a sell-down
will occur after the fourth quar-
ter of this year. The Dow Jones In-
dustrial Average declined about
20 per cent during the first four
months of 1939.
“You are not going to get a
beautiful rally. We are going to
see choppy action in the equity
markets,” said Mr Sperandeo,
who was speaking during a .....

 

[Eurekas]

Hey God Zeus, is it your forsight that the stock market is going to crash again?

 

[angie II]

It is a falling market... do not assume its recovering. You have been warned.



.

 

[Eurekas]

Singapore's overheated property market going to crash soon also? As more and more people default on their HDB mortage payment?

 

[angie II]

It is a falling market... do not assume its recovering. You have been warned.

.

2nd consecutive fall.

3rd consecutive fall.

Yes! Yes! Yes! drop somemore!

 

[Watchman]

Now the stock market traded like cliff ledges !

 

[Snipeshot08]

There have been many & numerous predictions, some even timed to try to talked down or up the index, the law of probability always strikes as finally one out of a hundred "predictions" will come true.

Than that "expert Guru" fella will come out saying "See I told you 2 months ago"
(not targetted towards the threadstarter, just a generic comment)

Unfortunately most only see/recognize the 1 right prediction while ignoring his other 99 wrong predictions :(

 

[PAPsupporter]

Not to worry, it won't crash. It will not fall beyond 1500. Singapore and the great PAP government has earned the trust and confidence of the investors, traders, businessmen and tycoons. Do take note that the US side plays an important factor to majority stock market around the world. 3 cheers for PAP.

 

[angie II]

3rd consecutive fall.

Lai ah... drop somemore... the lower the merrier...

Remember : Greed can make u a fortune but it can also make you lose your pants if you let it overrule u . You have to know when to get in & get out. :p

Btw i got the hint 2 months ago, before this thread surfaced.


.

 

[god_zeus]

didnt your old fart lee just told a crowd that
singapore still depend on the west for recovery?

he know he is not god,

Not to worry, it won't crash. It will not fall beyond 1500. Singapore and the great PAP government has earned the trust and confidence of the investors, traders, businessmen and tycoons. Do take note that the US side plays an important factor to majority stock market around the world. 3 cheers for PAP.

 

[angie II]

"Hooray... now i can sell low & buy high again"


.
​

 

[angie II]

<table class="contentpaneopen"> <tbody><tr> <td class="contentheading" width="100%"> Singapore: Buy high, Sell low (Part II) </td> <td class="buttonheading" align="right" width="100%">
</td> <td class="buttonheading" align="right" width="100%">
</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <table class="contentpaneopen"><tbody><tr> <td class="createdate" valign="top"> Saturday, 06 June 2009 </td> </tr> <tr> <td valign="top"> Asia Sentinel

Bailing out on Barclay's with massive losses, Temasek forgets to tell Singapore's citizens about it

Singapore officials' sense of superiority has taken another beating. A behind-the-curve bunch of sheep with MBAs may now be the truer image. While the sovereign wealth fund of Abu Dhabi has cleaned up on its investment in Britain's Barclays Bank, Temasek Holdings, still headed until October by Ho Ching, wife of Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong, has bailed out at a loss estimated at around US$850 million.

The news didn't come out of Singapore, where embarrassments involving the first family get the minimum attention, but from analysts in London and New York studying the movement of major shareholders in Barclays. The citizens of Singapore were apparently not worthy of being told of how their money is being mismanaged.

Not content with buying into Barclays at a time when the banking sector was viewed as the way to easy riches, Temasek sold out close to the bottom of the market. The Abu Dhabi International Petroleum Investment Corp meanwhile bought in when Barclays was desperate and sold out just this week when the Barclays share price had recovered, netting a profit of £1.45 billion sterling (US$ 2.2 billion) in just seven months.

The Temasek debacle followed hard on the heels of massive losses on a Bank of America stake mostly acquired near the top of the market and sold close to the bottom. Temasek's loss is estimated at US$4.6 billion, or roughly US$1,000 for every Singaporean citizen. After the sale, presumably in March, the share price promptly rose by 66 percent.

Singapore Finance Minister Tharman Shanmugaratnam has claimed that despite recent losses Temasek has made gains averaging a respectable 15 respectable a year. However, this was during a sustained global bull market and also reflected the fact that some of its assets were state-owned companies whose shares had been transferred at non-market prices. These included power stations which have been sold off over the past two years, generating large gains which cannot be replicated.

Some aspects of Temasek are also so obscure that no proper analysis is possible. One black hole looks to be a leveraged investment in a series of private equity funds at the top of the market.

Having bought into financials near the top – making them 40% of its total portfolio -- and sold off near the bottom, it is now focusing on commodities, most recently buying a stake in locally listed agriculture company Olam international. It got a 13.76 percent stake at an 18 percent discount to the market, nonetheless it had already almost doubled in price this year thanks to a rebound in commodities which may or may not be sustained.

Not that it is completely neglecting financials. It is considering a stake in a consortium to buy AIG's asset management business. But potential partner in this is the high-profile Hong Kong businessman notorious for losing shareholders' money – Richard Lee of PCCW.

Nor can Temasek ignore the problems of Singapore state enterprises which must compete internationally. It has just had to inject equity to reduce the massive debt of money-losing ship-owner NOL. Meanwhile it is trying to offload loss-making manufacturer Chartered Semiconductor.

In short, Temasek's bad news is unlikely to be over. But don't expect to hear about it first in the local media.



.
</td></tr></tbody></table>

 

[angie II]

This one is real time.

Lai ah... to the south, hope it goes! Play it again Sam


.

 

[angie II]

On a serious note, those holding long positions better think again as mentioned by TS. Cut loss if you have to. You have to make your own decision.



.

 

[VeryWise]

My opinion is that the support level for STI is around 2100. If this point is broken, the index could go way below 2000, back to 1800 or so where it is probably the fair value currently. Otherwise, the index will be holding between 2100 to 2300, with anticipation that the economy will recover soon. I will recommend those who went in during March, take profit now, enjoy the fruits and ignore the market totally till the picture is clearer. Do not be greedy if the gain is good enough.

In general, the worst is definitely over but the road to recovery is stll a little uncertain. The earnings for the next 2 to 3 quarters will not be spectacular. There is still room for some downward movement. But of cos, 1400 level will not be there again. The lowest I think from now till year end will be 1800 and the highest it could breach is 2400. Anything greater than 2400, it will mean it's not just green shoots but blooming flowers. That I will doubt will happen this year. But if you are long term investors, at any time, there are good pickings, just be alert.

 

[mentor_LEE]

Lon Worry!

Ler Recession is OVER!

But hor Ler DEPRESSION just started.
:p

 

[Snipeshot08]

On a serious note, those holding long positions better think again as mentioned by TS. Cut loss if you have to. You have to make your own decision.



.

Actually it will all depends on the individual and his own perception of "long-term" positions, those bottomless-wallets type like 100-course W-Buffet will think 5 to 8 years, those contra punting type will think in terms of weeks or even days

 

[Snipeshot08]

Lon Worry!

Ler Recession is OVER!

But hor Ler DEPRESSION just started.
:p

The Depression is in Recession???

Or the Recession is in Depression???

 

[Snipeshot08]

In general, the worst is definitely over but the road to recovery is stll a little uncertain. The earnings for the next 2 to 3 quarters will not be spectacular. There is still room for some downward movement. But of cos, 1400 level will not be there again. The lowest I think from now till year end will be 1800 and the highest it could breach is 2400. Anything greater than 2400, it will mean it's not just green shoots but blooming flowers. That I will doubt will happen this year. But if you are long term investors, at any time, there are good pickings, just be alert.

This is the most probable summary analysis I have seen in quite a while.... I do agree with your second paragraph, it will take quite a big catastrophic event (like a 2nd 911 touch-wood:( ) to be able to shake the market, look at it now just almost ignoring the Pig's Cold pandemic

 

[god_zeus]

the STI have to (technically speaking) go back to 1400 to do
a 'double bottom' before there is any hope of a 'beautiful' bull run

This is the most probable summary analysis I have seen in quite a while.... I do agree with your second paragraph, it will take quite a big catastrophic event (like a 2nd 911 touch-wood:( ) to be able to shake the market, look at it now just almost ignoring the Pig's Cold pandemic