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S'pore out of recession?

metalslug

Alfrescian
Loyal
http://www.straitstimes.com/Breaking+News/Singapore/Story/STIStory_402448.html

S'pore out of recession?

recession-st.jpg

Singapore and other economies in the region are forecast to report better second-quarter figures as about US$2 trillion (S$2.9 trillion) in stimulus worldwide helps stabilise overseas sales for companies. -- ST PHOTO: JOYCE FANG

SINGAPORE'S economy probably expanded for the first time in five quarters as a rebound in manufacturing helped the city state emerge from its worst recession since independence in 1965.

Gross domestic product rose an annualised 13.4 per cent last quarter from the previous three months, after shrinking 14.6 per cent between January and March, according to the median estimate of 12 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.

The Ministry of Trade and Industry will release the data at 8am on Tuesday.

Singapore and other economies in the region are forecast to report better second-quarter figures as about US$2 trillion (S$2.9 trillion) in stimulus worldwide helps stabilise overseas sales for companies including Japan's Nissan Motor Co and South Korea's Samsung

Electronics Co The International Monetary Fund last week increased its forecast for emerging Asia's growth in 2009.

'Much healthier manufacturing-sector numbers in the second quarter are the key drivers' of Singapore's performance, said Ms Chow Penn Nee, an economist at United Overseas Bank Ltd in Singapore told Bloomberg news. We 'will also likely see financial services boosting the services sector, with the rally in the stock markets in April, May and June.'

Singapore's industrial output climbed in the first two months last quarter, while the decline in the island's exports narrowed in May amid gains in drug shipments. Manufacturing, which slid 26.1 per cent in the three months ended March, accounts for about a quarter of the economy.

Other Asian nations have also reported an improvement in manufacturing. In May, India's industrial production increased at the fastest pace in eight months, while Malaysia's posted the smallest decline in six months. South Korea's output rose more than estimated while China's accelerated the same month.

Singapore's US$161 billion economy declined 5.4 per cent in the three months ended June from a year earlier, compared with a 10.1 per cent drop in the first quarter, according to the Bloomberg survey.

The Straits Times Index rose 37.2 per cent last quarter, the biggest gain since at least 1999. The volume of stocks traded increased more than 50 per cent in that period. The index was 0.3 per cent lower as of 9.40am local time. The Singapore dollar was little changed at S$1.4615 against the US currency.

The government forecasts the economy will shrink between 6 per cent and 9 per cent this year, the deepest contraction since its independence 44 years ago. Economists at Citigroup Inc, Goldman Sachs and DBS Group Holdings Ltd are among those that have increased their Singapore economic estimates in recent weeks as manufacturing and export figures showed improvement.
 

borom

Alfrescian (Inf)
Asset
:rolleyes:
http://www.straitstimes.com/Breaking+News/Singapore/Story/STIStory_402448.html

its worst recession since independence in 1965.........rally in the stock markets in April, May and June.'.......The Straits Times Index rose 37.2 per cent last quarter, the biggest gain since at least 1999......government forecasts the economy will shrink between 6 per cent and 9 per cent this year, the deepest contraction since its independence 44 years ago. .

Certain things do not make sense - like HDB valuations reaching record high during the worst recession since independence.
The share prices also rose during this period of high unemployment and banking consolidation.
Can anyone trained in economics care to explain.I would like to find out how the economics faculty in our "world class" NUS explain this apparent paradox.
Or is it what some people always say- " ïts politics over economics"?
:eek:
 

nickers9

Alfrescian
Loyal
:rolleyes:


Certain things do not make sense - like HDB valuations reaching record high during the worst recession since independence.
The share prices also rose during this period of high unemployment and banking consolidation.
Can anyone trained in economics care to explain.I would like to find out how the economics faculty in our "world class" NUS explain this apparent paradox.
Or is it what some people always say- " ïts politics over economics"?
:eek:

In Singapore, there's only 1 party who can do miracles and wonders in Singapore. That's PAP.

They can control the stock markets. They can make the stock markets running like a bull even though the whole world is in recession.

I can guarantee and chop that when the Singapore Erection is here, even USA stock market crashes, you will be amazed that Singapore Stock Market is in a Bull Run!!!
 

Conan the Barbarian

Alfrescian
Loyal
They can say and claim anything they want.

But NO ONE believes them anymore...

That is where you are wrong.

Most people believe.... Thats why the showrooms
are packed and the shopping malls are too.

You guys underestimate the power of the media.
Afterall, there is but one holding company for the
media that the man-on-the-street reads.:cool:
 

cleareyes

Alfrescian
Loyal
Singapore will only be out of recession if growth is constant for the nest 4 quaters. Just an improvement in a single quater does not mean anything.
 

cowbehcowbu

Alfrescian
Loyal
:rolleyes:


Certain things do not make sense - like HDB valuations reaching record high during the worst recession since independence.
The share prices also rose during this period of high unemployment and banking consolidation.
Can anyone trained in economics care to explain.I would like to find out how the economics faculty in our "world class" NUS explain this apparent paradox.
Or is it what some people always say- " ïts politics over economics"?
:eek:
Bro.there are huge amount of monies printed for the last few months by US,UK,some Euros...also those hot monies profitted from this financial meltdown[ when there are losses..there are gainers.hiding behind the scene..]..all these monies will find their way to the stocks maarkets..properties...resources........prices will surges like hell...BUT be aware...all those overly printed currencies will devalue very soon..gold and precious metal will rocket skyhigh...so samart fellow will quickly delink their cash or assets fro US$ Euros...as nsoon as they make monies...there will be hyper-inflation on US$-linked economies.......investor beware.....
 

borom

Alfrescian (Inf)
Asset
World avoided second Great Depression, Krugman says in KL

Updates with Malaysian PM and Singapore Minister's comments

KUALA LUMPUR: Aggressive stimulus spending by governments helped the world avoid a second Great Depression but full economic recovery will take two years or more, Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman said Monday.

Krugman said the worst of the global crisis was over with economic and exports growth showing signs of stabilization.

Still, recovery was likely to be "disappointing" as government spending wasn't sustainable in the long-run and unemployment rate still lagging behind, he told a two-day world capital markets conference here.

There isn't likely to be any "Phoenix-like" recovery such as in the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis, where the economies expanded dramatically, led by a sharp rebound in exports, he said.

Asia is likely to see a faster rebound, than the U.S. and Europe, partly driven by the recovery in manufacturing exports, he said.

In the clearest sign yet that the recession may be ending, the U.S. Labor Department last Friday showed the jobless rate in the world's largest economy dipped for the first time in 15 months while workers' hours and pay edged upward.

It said a net total of 247,000 jobs were lost last month, the fewest in a year and a drastic improvement from the 443,000 that vanished in June.

Still, the job market remains shaky.

A quarter-million lost jobs are a far cry from the employment growth needed to put the national economy on solid footing. President Barack Obama has urged Americans to be patient and give time for his US$787 billion stimulus package of tax cuts and increased government spending to take hold.

Most of the money will flow in 2010.

Krugman said there was still room for the U.S. government to increase spending to boost growth, despite concerns over its swollen budget deficit.

Krugman, who teaches at Princeton University, won the Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences last year for his analysis of how economies of scale can affect international trade patterns.

He also writes columns for The New York Times.

He said there was a need to restructure the global financial system and impose tighter regulations to avoid a repeat of the economic crisis, but expressed concern that the momentum for reforms appeared to be easing.

"We do not have the political will to do that just yet ... I suspect clever people can still make a lot of money from the financial system in the next few years," he warned.

Earlier, Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak urged regulators worldwide to jointly create a compatible, sustainable and effective surveillance system to prevent future market crashes.

These include keeping a close eye on risk-taking activities and having a common procedure for intervention if there are signs of irrational excess, he said.

"Over-reliance on self-regulation is a mistake," he said.

"Global regulators should err on the side of investor protection and financial stability rather than rely on a 'buyer beware' regulatory regime."

Singapore's Finance Minister Tharman Shanmugaratnam and Hong Kong Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury K.C. Chan warned against being too hasty, saying greater regulation of financial institutions mustn't be at the expense of stifling innovation and growth. - AP

http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2009/8/10/business/20090810130950&sec=business

Not suprisingly S'pore against more supervision of banks -as its beloved Citibank, UBS, Morgan ect2 will be affected.
However it has no qualms to greater regulation in the political arena and the stifling of innovation and personal growth.

Looks like our property market is 2 years or more ahead of the world financial market.
 
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