Recent data has dashed hopes that private property prices have bottomed out
In Q2 2016, the decline in property prices seemed to slow, with luxury properties even inching up 0.3 percent. This created the impression that property prices had bottomed out, and would not go any lower.
This was dispelled by results in Q3 2016. Being the 12th straight quarter of declining property prices, it was also one of the steepest declines. The drop in overall property prices accelerated from 0.4 percent to 1.5 percent (although this was partly due to a new methodology in recording prices, which uses the net sale price rather than the gross price).
Taking a step back, it becomes easier to see predictions of “bottoming out” as unfounded optimism. Property prices now, even after a year of continued declines, have only fallen by around 10.8 percent since their peak in 2013. Given that prices ramped up almost 60 percent between 2009 and 2013, the drop in prices that we’re seeing are not significant as they may seem. Prices can, and probably will, go lower.
A weak rental market that turns property assets into liabilities
Tenants rule the market, with rental rates being in decline since 2013. We have discussed these rental issues in some detail in a previous article.
Nonetheless, as a recap, rental transactions are rising, while rental rates are falling. This is indicative of tenants taking up shorter leases, in the expectation of negotiating or finding a cheaper rental rate later, given the pressure landlords are facing.
A major concern among landlords are rental rates in prime districts (districts 9,10, and 11), as the economy has soured for professionals in the oil and gas and banking industry. These sectors tend to bring in the professionals who can afford to rent such properties, and the current slump in oil prices and a weakening a financial sector means fewer such expatriates. Among the expatriates that still arrive, they are likely to see lower housing allowances.
As rental incomes decline, and interest rates go up, landlords may see their property assets turn into liabilities. This could result in a rush to offload the property, particularly among over-leveraged investors who made their purchases before the implementation of loan curbs. This will put further downward pressure on property prices, and is likely to result in good bargains for those with cash on hand.
A weak economic outlook
The Ministry for Trade and Industry (MTI) has downgraded the growth forecast to between one and 1.5 percent, down from one to 2 percent. In Q3 2016, all main sectors of the economy contracted, with manufacturing down 9.1 percent, construction down 0.8 percent, and services down 1.3 percent. Singapore is flirting with a technical recession, and growth opportunities from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) have likely been dashed under America’s new leadership.
Investors are likely to be more cautious, and may withhold property purchases in this uncertain time. Home buyers, who should rightly view their house as a place to stay and not in terms of capital gains or rental income, will see less competition for the properties they want.
The cooling measures are still in place
Enough has been said about this that we probably don’t need to elaborate. Cooling measures, such as the imposition of a 15 percent Additional Buyers Stamp Duty (ABSD) on foreign buyers, have made Singapore property expensive by comparison to Hong Kong, Australia, or the UK (in light of the falling pound after Brexit).
For the time being, Singapore’s property market may be losing a few foreign buyers to other property hotspots. It is improbable that cooling measures will be lifted anytime soon, given they are fulfilling the government’s intentions exactly as planned.
Singapore’s property market is becoming more catered to home owners, and is winding down from the inflated prices in 2013.