Sit Tight…Trump tariff shockwaves incoming soon

[k1976]

First Shockwaves of Trump’s Tariffs Are About to Hit the World Economy​

Tariffs, and the risk they pose to both the economy and inflation, have been on the mind of survey respondents in recent months.
Photographer: Alejandro Cegarra/Bloomberg
By Craig Stirling
20 April 2025 at 4:00 AM SGT
Updated on
20 April 2025 at 2:00 PM SGT
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Takeaways NEW​

Supply Lines is a daily newsletter that tracks global trade. Sign up here.

Three weeks after US President Donald Trumpeffectively declared a trade war with the whole world, new economic forecasts and surveys will point to the initial fallout.

What Bloomberg Economics Says:​

“The IMF’s projections tend to skew optimistic during potentially disruptive crises. In the four large crises we studied, the fund’s initial assessment of the immediate impact on global growth understated it by 0.5 percentage points. However much the IMF may downgrade the growth forecasts to start, history suggests the ultimate blow will be worse.”

—Alex Isakov and Adriana Dupita. For full analysis, click here

Those clouds shrouding the global economy are unlikely to lift for a while. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said on Wednesday that the US central bank is is “well positioned to wait for greater clarity” before considering changes to monetary policy, while European Central Bank chief Christine Lagarde couldn’t say whether uncertainty has peaked.

In the meantime, Georgieva is hoping the coming days, which also feature a meeting of Group of 20 finance chiefs, might lower the temperature in global trade relations.

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Before it’s here, it’s on the Bloomberg Terminal

​

 

[k1976]

Exporters at China’s Largest Trade Fair Told Not to Leave Early​

Visitors take photographs of bionic pets during the 137th session of the China Import and Export Fair, April 18.
Source: China News Service/Getty Images
By Bloomberg News
19 April 2025 at 6:40 PM SGT
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Takeaways NEW​

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Exporters at China’s largest trade fair have been discouraged from closing or leaving their stations early as organizers push them to maximize opportunities to attract sales amid an escalating trade conflict with the US.

Have a confidential tip for our reporters? Get in Touch
Before it’s here, it’s on the Bloomberg Terminal

​

 

[k1976]

DHL suspends high value US deliveries over tariffs​

IMAGE SOURCE, GETTY IMAGES
Article information

• Author, Dearbail Jordan
• Role, Business reporter, BBC News
• 1 hour ago

DHL Express is suspending deliveries to the US worth more than $800 (£603) because of a "significant increase" in red tape at customs following the intruduction of Donald Trump's new tariff regime.

The delivery giant said it will temporarily stop shipments from companies in all countries to American consumers on Monday "until further notice".

It added that business-to-business shipments will still go ahead, "though they may also face delays".
Previously, packages worth up to $2,500 could enter the US with minimal paperwork but due to tighter customs checks that came into force alongside Trump's tariffs earlier this month, the threshold has been lowered.

 

[k1976]

Trump wants his tariffs to reset the world. He might get his wish​

Analysis by Luciana Lopez, CNN
Updated 1:43 PM EDT, Fri April 18, 2025

Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images
President Donald Trump has repeatedly claimed that other countries have been “ripping off” the United States for years, despite American growth rates that have been the envy of the developed world.
CNN —
President Donald Trump has repeatedly touted what he calls the return of manufacturing to the United States, hailing companies that have vowed to pour large amounts of money into making everything from computer chips to cars in America.

But announcements are easy to make. In the long term, why would companies and other countries decide to invest in the US, which has upended the global economic order in just weeks? The United States moved from a stable economy, a trusted partner in trade agreements and global security, to a source of confusion and doubt in mere weeks after Trump assumed office on January 20.

Perhaps no one has put it more bluntly than Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, on Wednesday, when she said to a news outlet in Germany: “The West as we knew it no longer exists.”

 

[k1976]

In other words: The United States isn’t the only trade game in town.

Sure, the US is the world’s biggest economy, with a gross domestic product of almost $30 trillion. But China, the world’s No. 2 economy, is at about $18 trillion, according to the World Bank. And the total value of the European Union’s economy is around 17 trillion euros, or about $19 trillion.

“We have 166 members in the organization. US trade is 13% of world trade. That means that there’s 87% of world trade happening between the other members of the WTO,” Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, director-general of the World Trade Organization, told CNN’s Richard Quest on Wednesday.

Trump has repeatedly claimed that other countries have been “ripping off” the United States for years, despite American growth rates that have been the envy of the developed world. So far, he has imposed 25% tariffs on aluminum and steel; 25% tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada that aren’t compliant with a free-trade agreement; a massive 145% duty on Chinese imports; a 25% tariff on cars, with separate tariffs on auto parts coming at a later date; and a 10% baseline tariffs on all US imports.

But those numbers don’t quite capture the whiplash-inducing speed with which Trump has levied tariffs, then walked them back, only to announce more tariffs, with another policy change soon after. The constantly changing playing field has made it even more difficult for businesses and nations to contend with the new policies.

The tariffs in place now “will likely slow global economic growth significantly,” Moody’s Ratings said in a recent report. “And the inconsistent approach to policymaking has undermined confidence globally.”

The changes have been not only swift but also deep.

“These are very fundamental policy changes,” Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said at an eventhosted by the Economic Club of Chicago on Wednesday. “There isn’t a modern experience of how to think about this.”

His comments sent US stock markets slumping, with investors clearly uneasy about what it means when a usually staid central banker suggests the world economic order is being turned topsy-turvy. (Trump ripped Powell on social media the next day, ostensibly for not lowering interest rates quickly enough, writing: “Powell’s termination cannot come fast enough!”)

 

[k1976]

Typically, the ‘Smart Money Flow Index’ is tightly correlated with the direction of the market. But that relationship has broken down lately.​

By


Joseph Adinolfi
Follow

Last Updated: April 18, 2025 at 12:25 p.m. ET
First Published: April 18, 2025 at 12:23 p.m. ET

Is the “smart money” getting back into the market? One indicator suggests the pros might be. PHOTO: GETTY IMAGES

Referenced Symbols​

• 
  DJIA
  -1.33%
• 
  SPX
  +0.13%
• 
  COMP
  -0.13%

“Smart money” investors have been buying stocks pretty aggressively lately, even as the market continues to struggle in 2025.

If the recent past is any guide, an indicator known as the “Smart Money Flow Index” might be flashing a market buy signal, said Jim Paulsen, a market veteran and former top strategist at the Leuthold Group, and before that at Wells Fargo’s institutional asset management arm.

 

[Pinkieslut]

Trump will win again! Ah Loong balls will shrink further.

 

[k1976]

Trump will win again! Ah Loong balls will shrink further.

We 买单again

 

[cocobobo]

Why yanks choose a stupid fool?

 

[k1976]

Why yanks choose a stupid fool?

They need a fool to do all dirty stuff and assign the blame on him later in the history book

Leemember…strength is Ignorance

 

[nabeifuckpap]

Trump will win again! Ah Loong balls will shrink further.

FUCK PAP

 

[k1976]

FUCK PAP

We are Fucked Hard this time…

 

[birdie69]

Trump will win again! Ah Loong balls will shrink further.

Does he still have the balls?

 

[Willamshakespear]

Relax & chill. No need for fear mongering.

PrezTrump is willing to negotiate terms for win-win solutions for all.

Just don't be stubborn. Negotiations only means one does not get to eat the whole cake alone, but with compromises for the greater PRAGMATIC good, each will get a slice of the cake & not go hungry, more so for representatives of their citizens which need not starve. There are enough resources & food on Earth for all & more to come.

The show is still running.....

 

[oliverlee]

Trump will win again! Ah Loong balls will shrink further.

he got balls meh?

 

[oliverlee]

FUCK PAP

mai lah. i rather fuck xiao mei mei. Even milf or gilf is still better. At least wont get disease

 

[TanSong]

mai lah. i rather fuck xiao mei mei. Even milf or gilf is still better. At least wont get disease

True

 

[shock888]

With the sky high tarrffs, PRC will divert their over produced goods to SEA including SG.

So we should be expecting cheap goods from China right? So what are the PAP Elites trying to smoke here?

 

[shock888]

Relax & chill. No need for fear mongering.

PrezTrump is willing to negotiate terms for win-win solutions for all.

Just don't be stubborn. Negotiations only means one does not get to eat the whole cake alone, but with compromises for the greater PRAGMATIC good, each will get a slice of the cake & not go hungry, more so for representatives of their citizens which need not starve. There are enough resources & food on Earth for all & more to come.

The show is still running.....

After WW2, US became the consumer of exports from all over the world and USD because the de-facto currency.

But after 80 years US is now heavily indebted and needs to go to rehab to wean itself off cheap imports (esp from China).

 

[shock888]

Trump wants his tariffs to reset the world. He might get his wish​

Analysis by Luciana Lopez, CNN
Updated 1:43 PM EDT, Fri April 18, 2025

Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images
President Donald Trump has repeatedly claimed that other countries have been “ripping off” the United States for years, despite American growth rates that have been the envy of the developed world.
CNN —
President Donald Trump has repeatedly touted what he calls the return of manufacturing to the United States, hailing companies that have vowed to pour large amounts of money into making everything from computer chips to cars in America.

But announcements are easy to make. In the long term, why would companies and other countries decide to invest in the US, which has upended the global economic order in just weeks? The United States moved from a stable economy, a trusted partner in trade agreements and global security, to a source of confusion and doubt in mere weeks after Trump assumed office on January 20.

Perhaps no one has put it more bluntly than Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, on Wednesday, when she said to a news outlet in Germany: “The West as we knew it no longer exists.”

I salute Trump for all the courage he has to make this global reset.

After WW2, US became the consumer of exports from all over the world and USD because the de-facto currency.

But after 80 years US is now heavily indebted and needs to go to rehab to wean itself off cheap imports (esp from China).

Trump is the chosen one to do this reset. That's why he survived assassinations'. He is the divine one.