Singapore in Recession?

[Sammael]

Well, actually Singapore is already in recession.

The funny thing is, that we have a good employment rate (which is low - about 1.8 - 2.3%) and a rising inflation rate (which is 6.5 to 7%). Both these factors says that we are not in recession but economically doing well. However, our interest rates are very low (Savings), which indicates that we are in recession. As thats shows we are in recession.

So at the end of the day, the country is in recession, but showing the rest of the world that we are not due to our GDP growth and high inflation rate. This is a contradiction to Economics rationale.

This is IMHO only.

Have you considered that interest rates are being kept low because of the heavy hand of MAS? Cheap cost of funds to fuel the grand design of our govt. Interestingly enough not many foreign companies doing IPO in Singapore now compared to some time ago.

 

[sam88mas]

More like we are in inflation as products and services increase in price and no change in income.

 

[SammyHulk]

Japna oso high income but so is their standard of living. imo, job income can never keep pace with inflations though it sure beats than no increase @ all.

 

[eugene88]

my humble opinions la..

recession can be linked to inflation, like when inflation is going up faster than our GDP growth for a certain period of time, it may generally lead to a negative real GDP growth, which is directly linked to the economy's growth.. so until inflation is curbed, the mortgage crisis is officially over, the oil crisis is improves, the agricultural food prices slow down their increment; everything added up can affect singapore's economy..

but we cannot immediately point and say that it's a recession cos there is negative economic growth for one quarter (3mths) or two.. it's a word that cannot be misused.. but if there is relatively high negative economic growth for a yr, that's smth worth worrying abt..

anyway, there shouldnt be much of a recession in the near future once the IRs are built, provided that the US market recovers and more tourists start flowing in and that everything else stops worsening..

anyway rite now, im sooooooooo hating those big speculators.. making everybody else's lives worse.. for example, speculation and speculation alone made indymac close down. thanks to senator charles schumer ( referring to 13/07/08's ST article "MASSIVE US BANK RUN SPELLS TROUBLE" )

again, the above are just my opinions.. pls correct me if im wrong

 

[eugene88]

anyway, our interest rates for savings accounts dun really count much as a single factor to determine the economy's performance or anything..

japan once had negative risk premium in interest rates no?
ref: http://ideas.repec.org/p/wop/stanec/02006.html

risk premium accounts for part of the general interest rate such that it compensates the investor for taking the risks in investing their money on that particular product/institution.. having negative risk premium means investors are actually paying for "taking" the risk sia!

the other part of the interest rate includes the real risk-free rate (RRFR) and the nominal risk-free rate (NRFR) such that RRFR + NRFR + risk premium = interest rate (smth like that la)

so with negative risk premium, it actually cancels out some RRFR and NRFR, which "pushes" japan's interest rates to zero!

but japan's economy has been growing, no? there was just economic slowdown la~

wad im trying to say is, interest rates dun mean much.

again, it's my humble opinions~

 

[damnu88]

Yah during this difficult time. Why not the govormen give out percentage of our HARD EARNED CPF instead of Growth Dividend and GST Off Set..etc.
Those contributions were from our pay package. But only can see and cant touch. If were given let's say about 8% of our balance in CPF Account, that will really help those needy tho tide out this period and may also boost the image of the govormen. With all the pass incidents for the security department etc.....Tranish their image liao. My point of view only.....thank u.

 

[shyysg]

I am not sure if Singapore will face any form of recession in the near future with this big plans for the IR & F1 & the promise of the big bucks that will be injected into our economy but one thing is certain - better watch our spendings & hang on to our jobs for now all thanks to the slow down in the US market, higher food price due to global warming & the need for biofuel, public transport fare going up soon to between 3 - 7%, higher electrical bill due soaring oil prices, 30 cents more for the fuel surcharge when we flag down a cab (are we taking a cab or airplane here? - i really wonder). Sigh... What not to be like for the "future"?

*Just my personnal two cents worth*

 

[hyderbaddie]

With a recession, shouldn't prices be tumbling?

It most certainly does not look like a recession with the sudden surge of the COEs in June. Multiple launches of condos with good sales figures. Perhaps its the GRS Great Recession Sale.

Haha, personally i am also bearish on the economy.

 

[eugene88]

yar, one thing im veri irritated, is that the GST package.. yea, pple above the age of 21 get the cash.

im 20 this yr, so instead of the cash in my bank, i get that 1k put into my post-secondary education account, which i cannot touch/see/move at all since im studying at a pte uni.. and onli when i turn 30 den the money will auto-transfer to my CPF-OA, which oso cannot be touched. UNTIL I RETIRE AT THE RETIREMENT AGE which will definitely be raised a lot higher than 55 in the next few decades.

liddat by the time i really get the money, i bet the purchasing power of that one thousand sing dollars would have dropped to the current spending power of a hundred bucks.

wah liao, means i got to wait so long (until i retire, and i havent even started working) den i get that meagre sum.

wah kao eh.

govt damn smart ah, gimme money which i cannot touch.

 

[damnu88]

yar, one thing im veri irritated, is that the GST package.. yea, pple above the age of 21 get the cash.

im 20 this yr, so instead of the cash in my bank, i get that 1k put into my post-secondary education account, which i cannot touch/see/move at all since im studying at a pte uni.. and onli when i turn 30 den the money will auto-transfer to my CPF-OA, which oso cannot be touched. UNTIL I RETIRE AT THE RETIREMENT AGE which will definitely be raised a lot higher than 55 in the next few decades.

liddat by the time i really get the money, i bet the purchasing power of that one thousand sing dollars would have dropped to the current spending power of a hundred bucks.

wah liao, means i got to wait so long (until i retire, and i havent even started working) den i get that meagre sum.

wah kao eh.

govt damn smart ah, gimme money which i cannot touch.

Need to take good care of yourself utill if you can reach the retirement age hoh. Any time if you up the lorry before the time comes....All those $$ in CPF will be spend by your next of kin.

 

[Wang Ye]

At the rate things are going most of my generation won't get to touch our CPF ever! At best every month some allowance from our account. :(

 

[Leongsam]

At the rate things are going most of my generation won't get to touch our CPF ever! At best every month some allowance from our account. :(

Ho Ching has first bite my friend. You can only have what's left over and you aren't entitled to it unless you succeed in reaching the ripe old age of 103.:p

 

[ahbengsong]

Economists don't just pin a two quarter negative growth as recession for nothing.... a recession don't appear out of the blue... there are many signs before it hits and when an economy still slumps into -ve growth [shit, i m beginning to sound like pap media]... it means the government or central bank has failed in its efforts to stop one from happening...

bro... there is no such thing as suka suka change the definition from 2-qtr to 4-qtr of -ve growth...

beng [the original]

 

[wusangui]

Ho Ching has first bite my friend. You can only have what's left over and you aren't entitled to it unless you succeed in reaching the ripe old age of 103.:p

the money is under our name, but actually it is in the sky.

 

[ahbengsong]

the money is under our name, but actually it is in the sky.

Correction... the money is under your name but someone is spending it on your behalf... "for your own good" as they say....

beng [the original]

 

[ccl69]

I will be surprised if SG is not in recession while the whole world are...our economic is tagged to a lot of countries like China, USA, many others...

 

[hughgrant]

the whole world is going into recession. spore will follow suit