Everyone knows that 2009 was a bad year with GM, Chrysler,BS, ML, Citibank, AIG all going under or under life support.
Looking forward here is a pragmatic article from bloomberg dtd Jan 10 2010. Also note that in international trade it is hard to "cook books" since figures can be verified from counter parties. Impressive part in the 56% jump in imports:
China’s December Exports Rebound, Imports Jump 55.9% (Update3)
January 10, 2010, 01:32 AM EST MORE FROM BUSINESSWEEK
Jan. 10 (Bloomberg) -- China’s exports rose in December for the first time in 14 months and imports surged 55.9 percent as the nation helps power a global recovery.
The rebound in trade may encourage Chinese policy makers to consider letting the yuan resume its appreciation against the dollar this year after a 17-month halt that aided manufacturers as demand slumped. Preventing currency gains helped China withstand last year’s contraction in global trade and overtake Germany to become the world’s No. 1 exporter.
The data “could add more pressure on the renminbi,” said Lu Ting, an economist at Bank of America-Merrill Lynch in Hong Kong, using another term for the yuan. The “handsome recovery of China’s external trade” mirrored gains by other nations in the region, Lu said.
Imports increased by the most since 2003, after accounting for seasonal distortions in the first two months of each year. The full-year trade surplus was $196.06 billion, sliding for the first time since 2003 and falling short of 2008’s record $295.5 billion.
China Versus Germany
Yuan forwards indicate that the government will let the currency appreciate 3 percent against the dollar in the next year. The contracts rose to their highest level in more than a month on Jan. 8 after the central bank guided three-month bill yields to increase.
The currency gained 21 percent in three years after a fixed exchange rate was scrapped in July 2005. It has stayed at about 6.83 per dollar since July last year.
Germany shipped 734.6 billion euros ($1.05 trillion) of goods in the first 11 months of last year, the Federal Statistics Office said Jan. 8. That compared with China’s $1.07 trillion of exports. The Asian nation surpassed Germany in 2007 to become the third-largest economy and is forecast to overtake Japan this year, assuming the No. 2 spot behind the U.S.
China’s 2010 export numbers may be boosted by the global recovery and comparisons with low levels last year. Taiwan reported Jan. 7 its biggest export gain in 14 years in December after shipments plunged a year earlier.
Global Growth
The International Monetary Fund this month will probably raise its estimate for world growth this year from a 3.1 percent forecast in October, John Lipsky, the organization’s first deputy managing director, said Jan. 6. European executive and consumer confidence jumped in December to a level last seen before the demise of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. in 2008, a report showed last week.
Still, Chinese officials say the global recovery is not yet on a solid footing and Singapore’s PSA International Pte., the world’s second-biggest container-terminal operator, cautioned on Jan. 8 that 2010 will remain “challenging.” PSA added that last year’s contraction in global trade had caused port and shipping companies “unprecedented hardship.”
Chinese imports are being boosted by a strengthening recovery in the world’s third-biggest economy, manufacturers buying materials for processing into exports, and an increase in commodity prices. On the nation’s east coast, Qingdao Port Group Co. is expanding wharves to handle iron-ore imports.
Record Lending
The nation’s trade surplus is channeling cash into an economy already awash with money from record lending and facing the risk of property bubbles in some cities and accelerating inflation. The central bank’s move to guide bill yields higher may help to drain liquidity from the financial system.
In an interview with state media, Premier Wen Jiabao said Dec. 27 that China will “absolutely not yield” to trading partners’ calls for currency gains.
In contrast, Zhang Bin, a researcher at the government- backed Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said last week that policy makers should consider a one-time 10 percent appreciation against the dollar. He argued that the move would stem inflows of speculative capital.
Nobel laureate Joseph Stiglitz said Jan. 7 in Paris that China should make its currency more flexible although that alone won’t solve the problem of global trade imbalances.
--Paul Panckhurst, Li Yanping. Editors: Paul Panckhurst, Mike Millard
