<TABLE id=msgUN cellSpacing=3 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD id=msgUNsubj vAlign=top>Coffeeshop Chit Chat - SG factory output at 10 yr low now!</TD><TD id=msgunetc noWrap align=right>
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</NOBR> </TD><TD class=msgDate noWrap align=right width="30%">Dec-2 11:23 pm </TD></TR><TR class=msghead><TD class=msgT noWrap align=right width="1%" height=20>To: </TD><TD class=msgTname noWrap width="68%">ALL <NOBR></NOBR></TD><TD class=msgNum noWrap align=right> (1 of 1) </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR><TR><TD class=msgleft width="1%" rowSpan=4> </TD><TD class=wintiny noWrap align=right>3310.1 </TD></TR><TR><TD height=8></TD></TR><TR><TD class=msgtxt><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD>Factory output at 10-year low; falls for 3rd straight month
</TD></TR><TR><TD><!-- headline one : end --></TD></TR><TR><TD><!-- Author --></TD></TR><TR><TD class="padlrt8 georgia11 darkgrey bold" colSpan=2>By Michelle Tay
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<!-- START OF : div id="storytext"--><!-- more than 4 paragraphs -->AN INDEX regarded as an important early indicator of Singapore's factory output has plunged to the lowest level in its nearly 10-year history.
That means the current difficult manufacturing environment looks certain to continue, economists say.
Last month's Singapore Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to 44.3 points, down 1.5 points from October's figure, because of declining levels in new export orders, production output and employment.
This reading is the lowest since the index was launched in January 1999, said the Singapore Institute of Purchasing and Materials Management (SIPMM), which compiles the PMI numbers.
The PMI index is based on a poll of more than 150 purchasing executives at factories here, so it is considered a reliable early indicator of overall output.
An index figure below 50 indicates a contraction of manufacturing output, while a figure above 50 means expansion.
November was the third straight month that the PMI had shrunk - and this followed three months of expansion.
Economists now say there is 'no light at the end of tunnel any time soon' for manufacturers. They add that the figures are 'not unexpected', given the continuing uncertainty in the world economy.
Standard Chartered economist Alvin Liew said: 'The bad news is that since this downward trend is persisting, it means manufacturing is likely to remain weak for the next three to six months, and could still be a drag on gross domestic product growth in the fourth quarter of this year.'
OCBC Bank economist Selena Ling noted that the local numbers are in line with the global PMI data being released in China, the Eurozone and the United States. 'They were all disappointing market expectations, if not at new cycle lows.'
Ms Janice Ong, executive director of SIPMM, said: 'The latest PMI readings signal an aggravated concern on the overall manufacturing economy, given that the global financial crisis has spread all over the world and affected economic growth.
'I would not expect the PMI...to be on the expansion track in the near term.'
Ms Ling was less optimistic, saying the PMI could possibly drop below 40, and 'may even head towards 30-plus levels, like in the US'.
Last month, the US Institute for Supply Management manufacturing index registered its steepest drop in 26 years to hit 36.2 points - the lowest level since September 1982.
Several indexes contribute to the PMI, including the electronics sector index, production index, new export orders index, and supplier deliveries index.
Last month, these all fell between 0.7 points and 4.1 points from the month before.
The only indices that rose: inventory, which edged up 1.3 points, and order backlog, which gained 1.1 points. However, the rise in inventory 'most likely means demand has fallen much faster than what was originally expected', said Mr Liew.
[email protected]
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
</TD></TR><TR><TD><!-- headline one : end --></TD></TR><TR><TD><!-- Author --></TD></TR><TR><TD class="padlrt8 georgia11 darkgrey bold" colSpan=2>By Michelle Tay
</TD></TR><TR><TD><!-- show image if available --></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<!-- START OF : div id="storytext"--><!-- more than 4 paragraphs -->AN INDEX regarded as an important early indicator of Singapore's factory output has plunged to the lowest level in its nearly 10-year history.
That means the current difficult manufacturing environment looks certain to continue, economists say.
Last month's Singapore Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to 44.3 points, down 1.5 points from October's figure, because of declining levels in new export orders, production output and employment.
This reading is the lowest since the index was launched in January 1999, said the Singapore Institute of Purchasing and Materials Management (SIPMM), which compiles the PMI numbers.
The PMI index is based on a poll of more than 150 purchasing executives at factories here, so it is considered a reliable early indicator of overall output.
An index figure below 50 indicates a contraction of manufacturing output, while a figure above 50 means expansion.
November was the third straight month that the PMI had shrunk - and this followed three months of expansion.
Economists now say there is 'no light at the end of tunnel any time soon' for manufacturers. They add that the figures are 'not unexpected', given the continuing uncertainty in the world economy.
Standard Chartered economist Alvin Liew said: 'The bad news is that since this downward trend is persisting, it means manufacturing is likely to remain weak for the next three to six months, and could still be a drag on gross domestic product growth in the fourth quarter of this year.'
OCBC Bank economist Selena Ling noted that the local numbers are in line with the global PMI data being released in China, the Eurozone and the United States. 'They were all disappointing market expectations, if not at new cycle lows.'
Ms Janice Ong, executive director of SIPMM, said: 'The latest PMI readings signal an aggravated concern on the overall manufacturing economy, given that the global financial crisis has spread all over the world and affected economic growth.
'I would not expect the PMI...to be on the expansion track in the near term.'
Ms Ling was less optimistic, saying the PMI could possibly drop below 40, and 'may even head towards 30-plus levels, like in the US'.
Last month, the US Institute for Supply Management manufacturing index registered its steepest drop in 26 years to hit 36.2 points - the lowest level since September 1982.
Several indexes contribute to the PMI, including the electronics sector index, production index, new export orders index, and supplier deliveries index.
Last month, these all fell between 0.7 points and 4.1 points from the month before.
The only indices that rose: inventory, which edged up 1.3 points, and order backlog, which gained 1.1 points. However, the rise in inventory 'most likely means demand has fallen much faster than what was originally expected', said Mr Liew.
[email protected]
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