Difficult for Dr Chee to win although he can give a good fight but unlikely to be as close as his former Bukit Batok SMC. But in subsequent GEs once he walk the ground more in Sembawang, he might have a greater chance of winning. Looks like his time is not here yet but
Paul Tambyah definitely will have very good chance of winning at Bukit Panjang SMC.
Analysis by Grok AI based on real-time data and latest developments:
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The Singapore Democratic Party (SDP) is contesting Sembawang West Single Member Constituency (SMC) in the General Election (GE) 2025, with its leader, Dr. Chee Soon Juan, facing off against the People’s Action Party (PAP) candidate, Poh Li San. This analysis evaluates SDP’s chances in Sembawang West SMC, focusing on three voteshare scenarios based on historical performance, current voter sentiment for greater diversity in parliament, and Dr. Chee’s prospects against Poh Li San, considering his past performance in Bukit Batok SMC and the SDP’s limited historical presence in Sembawang.
Context and Background
Sembawang West SMC, a newly carved-out constituency with 24,153 voters, was previously part of Sembawang GRC, where Poh Li San has been an MP since 2020. In GE 2020, the PAP team in Sembawang GRC, including Poh, secured 67.29% of the vote against the National Solidarity Party (NSP), which garnered 32.71% [Ref web ID: 2] [Ref web ID: 17]. NSP has since stepped aside to avoid a three-cornered fight, leaving a straight contest between PAP and SDP [Ref web ID: 0].
Dr. Chee, SDP’s secretary-general, previously contested Bukit Batok SMC in GE 2020, achieving 45.2% of the vote—a strong performance, though he lost to PAP’s Murali Pillai (54.8%) [Ref web ID: 18]. Bukit Batok SMC was dissolved in the 2025 electoral boundary changes, absorbed into the new Jurong East-Bukit Batok GRC, prompting Chee to shift to Sembawang West as part of SDP’s “northern strategy” [Ref web ID: 1]. SDP has a historical presence in Sembawang, having contested the GRC in 2006 and 2011, but it has been less active recently compared to NSP [Ref web ID: 1].
Poh Li San, a former helicopter pilot and current senior vice-president at Changi Airport Group, emphasizes her strong rapport with Sembawang West residents, citing her groundwork since 2020 [Ref web ID: 0] [Ref web ID: 4]. Dr. Chee, however, brings a decade of experience from Bukit Batok, where he built community ties, and has been campaigning in Sembawang West since March 2025, distributing flyers and engaging residents [Ref web ID: 1]. Voter sentiment, as noted by PM Lawrence Wong post-GE 2020, leans toward greater diversity in parliament, with PAP unlikely to exceed 65% voteshare in future elections—a trend that could favor opposition candidates like Chee.
Three Voteshare Scenarios for Sembawang West SMC
Scenario 1: SDP Voteshare at 43–45% (Competitive Loss)
- Context: In GE 2020, NSP secured 32.71% in Sembawang GRC, while Chee achieved 45.2% in Bukit Batok SMC [Ref web ID: 17] [Ref web ID: 18]. Chee’s move to Sembawang West, where SDP has a weaker historical presence, might limit his ability to replicate his Bukit Batok performance. However, his improved public image—he is no longer seen as the polarizing figure of the 1990s but as a committed opposition leader and successful restaurateur—could attract voters seeking diversity. Poh’s incumbency advantage and PAP’s strong 67.29% voteshare in Sembawang GRC in 2020 give her a solid base [Ref web ID: 2].
- Outcome: SDP secures 43–45%, a significant improvement over NSP’s 32.71% in 2020, reflecting Chee’s stronger candidacy and voter desire for diversity. PAP wins with 55–57%, leveraging Poh’s established presence and PAP’s track record.
- Likelihood: High. Chee’s Bukit Batok performance suggests he can outperform NSP’s 2020 result, but Poh’s groundwork and PAP’s historical dominance in Sembawang make a win challenging.
Scenario 2: SDP Voteshare at 48–50% (Narrow Win or Loss)
- Context: A 3–5% swing from Scenario 1 could occur if Chee capitalizes on voter frustration with PAP policies (e.g., cost of living, a key issue raised by SDP in Sembawang GRC) and the national push for diversity [Ref web ID: 20]. Chee’s consistent engagement since March 2025, including house visits and his “northern strategy,” might resonate with residents, some of whom have expressed dissatisfaction with PAP MPs, as seen in a TikToker’s claim of not meeting her MP in eight years [Ref web ID: 14]. Poh, however, highlights her active representation in parliament and community work, which could retain loyal PAP voters [Ref web ID: 0].
- Outcome: SDP achieves 48–50%, reflecting a strong push for diversity and Chee’s credibility. PAP’s voteshare drops to 50–52%. This scenario could result in a narrow SDP win or a close loss, depending on turnout and last-minute voter shifts.
- Likelihood: Moderate. Chee’s 45.2% in Bukit Batok and the diversity sentiment make this plausible, but SDP’s limited recent activity in Sembawang and Poh’s incumbency pose hurdles.
Scenario 3: SDP Voteshare at 52–54% (Decisive Win)
- Context: A 7–9% swing from Scenario 1 would require a significant anti-PAP wave, driven by national issues like economic pressures and a strong desire for opposition voices in parliament. Chee’s manifesto, “Thrive, Not Just Survive,” addresses healthcare, housing, and education—issues that resonate with Sembawang West’s HDB residents [Ref web ID: 16]. His experience in Bukit Batok, where he narrowed the gap from 38.8% in 2016 to 45.2% in 2020, shows his ability to gain voter trust over time [Ref web ID: 1]. Poh’s 67.29% base in Sembawang GRC would need to erode significantly, possibly due to voter fatigue with PAP or local grievances.
- Outcome: SDP wins decisively with 52–54%, while PAP falls to 46–48%. This result would signal a major shift in Sembawang West, aligning with a broader opposition surge.
- Likelihood: Low to Moderate. While possible, such a swing requires a perfect storm of voter discontent and Chee’s ability to overcome SDP’s weaker historical presence in Sembawang.
Dr. Chee’s Chances of Winning Against Poh Li San
Dr. Chee’s chances hinge on several factors:
- Strengths:
- Stellar Past Performance: Chee’s 45.2% in Bukit Batok SMC in 2020 demonstrates his ability to challenge PAP in a straight fight [Ref web ID: 18]. His improvement from 38.8% in the 2016 by-election shows growing voter trust [Ref web ID: 1].
- Public Image: Chee is no longer the polarizing figure of his early political career. His success as a restaurateur and consistent community engagement in Bukit Batok enhance his credibility [Ref web ID: 14].
- Voter Sentiment: The push for diversity in parliament, as acknowledged by PM Wong, could benefit Chee, especially among younger voters in Sembawang West’s HDB flats [Ref web ID: 12].
- Challenges:
- Limited SDP Presence: SDP has been less active in Sembawang compared to NSP, which contested the GRC in 2020 [Ref web ID: 1]. Chee’s campaign began in March 2025, giving him less time to build rapport compared to Poh’s five years as MP [Ref web ID: 0].
- Poh’s Incumbency: Poh has emphasized her strong ties with residents, citing her work on infrastructure and public health [Ref web ID: 4]. Her 67.29% voteshare in Sembawang GRC in 2020 provides a formidable baseline [Ref web ID: 2].
- PAP’s Dominance: PAP’s historical strength in Sembawang, combined with Poh’s active representation in parliament, makes her a tough opponent [Ref web ID: 0].
Conclusion
SDP, led by Dr. Chee, has a credible chance to make Sembawang West SMC a competitive race in GE 2025, scheduled for May 3, 2025. Scenario 1 (43–45% voteshare) is the most likely, reflecting Chee’s ability to outperform NSP’s 2020 result but falling short of victory due to Poh’s incumbency and PAP’s strong base. Scenario 2 (48–50%) is plausible if Chee leverages voter desire for diversity and local discontent, potentially securing a narrow win. Scenario 3 (52–54%) is less likely but possible with a significant anti-PAP wave.
Dr. Chee’s chances of winning against Poh Li San are moderate but face significant hurdles. His stellar performance in Bukit Batok (45.2%) and improved public image give him a strong foundation, but SDP’s limited recent activity in Sembawang and Poh’s established presence tilt the odds in PAP’s favor. Chee’s success will depend on his ability to translate his Bukit Batok momentum into Sembawang West, capitalize on diversity sentiment, and address local issues effectively in the short campaign window.
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