Recession in 2013?

[TracyTan866]

The policies are formulated in such a way that people are happily queuing up to get burnt.

hahahaha...i hope singaporeans see through those evil policies

 

[TracyTan866]

SG not that fast. For property correction in SG will be maybe see the actual value will likely be in 2015/2016.
It will take time why?
Because need a certain period of time eg. when unable to make payment for 6 month bank start to foreclose the property.
On average SG property buyer will have 6 month of reserve(saving) and another 6 month no repayment for bank that will be 12 month/1 year.
So when jobless/retrenchment start it will take one year to see the effect.
Now average interest average about 2% if the interest rate rise to 4% many will be unable to service loan.
Very soon interest rate will rise because no way it can stay low for long period of time.
Low interest rate create bubble.

thanks.....

 

[TracyTan866]

If demand is so badly hit and there is little orders. If others are so badly affected and there is little business/leisure travels. When we have completed most of the infra structure and there is little left to build and dig. When buildings are completed but contracts of purchases are abandoned.

The continuing flow of FTs is possible only when conditions are favorable i.e. jobs or safe haven for wealth. The speed of FTs exit should be as fast as their entry. In a downturn, only the poor will be stuck here which may not be what we want.

very true...when bad times start, many things will crumple...domini effect

 

[TracyTan866]

Singapore will only be in danger of a recession if they cut back to less than 60k per year.

but how long can the pap sustain import of 80k, 100k per year?

 

[aurvandil]

It is a simple input-output function. As long as immigration is 80k to 100k per year, there is almost zero chance of negative GDP growth in Singapore. The probability of negative GDP growth only becomes possible if immigration falls below 60k.

Armed with this background, you can thus understand the recent moves by the PAP to lay the ground for more immigration in 2013. With a weak global economic outlook, they are banking on keeping immigration at 80k to 100k to starve off recession. If things get really bad, they might even go full throttle to the pre-GE 2011 levels of 120k to 150k. They would justify the policy by saying it was necessary to keep Singapore growing and out of recession.

but how long can the pap sustain import of 80k, 100k per year?

 

[TracyTan866]

It is a simple input-output function. As long as immigration is 80k to 100k per year, there is almost zero chance of negative GDP growth in Singapore. The probability of negative GDP growth only becomes possible if immigration falls below 60k.

Armed with this background, you can thus understand the recent moves by the PAP to lay the ground for more immigration in 2013. With a weak global economic outlook, they are banking on keeping immigration at 80k to 100k to starve off recession. If things get really bad, they might even go full throttle to the pre-GE 2011 levels of 120k to 150k. They would justify the policy by saying it was necessary to keep Singapore growing and out of recession.

that's true from the economic view. but socially, can SG absorb 80k new arrivals indefinitely?

 

[Cestbon]

It is a simple input-output function. As long as immigration is 80k to 100k per year, there is almost zero chance of negative GDP growth in Singapore. The probability of negative GDP growth only becomes possible if immigration falls below 60k.

Armed with this background, you can thus understand the recent moves by the PAP to lay the ground for more immigration in 2013. With a weak global economic outlook, they are banking on keeping immigration at 80k to 100k to starve off recession. If things get really bad, they might even go full throttle to the pre-GE 2011 levels of 120k to 150k. They would justify the policy by saying it was necessary to keep Singapore growing and out of recession.

Yes. As long as FT increase there will be grow in total GDP but income/person may drop.
That why never trust GDP data.
The best way to judge is 20% lowest income. Does it grow or stay.
In SG lowest income group have been stay for 15 year. Eg cleaner/guard/driver salary stay the same for past 15 year some even see salary decrease.

 

[Thick Face Black Heart]

Afraid its not that simple. You need employers ready to hire those foreigners first. In a recession hiring will definitely fall.

You might argue that the govt can always create artificial stimulus to the jobs market (and thereby create an opportunity to import more foreigners) by opening new construction or infrastructure contracts, etc, but that can only go so far.

It is a simple input-output function. As long as immigration is 80k to 100k per year, there is almost zero chance of negative GDP growth in Singapore. The probability of negative GDP growth only becomes possible if immigration falls below 60k.

Armed with this background, you can thus understand the recent moves by the PAP to lay the ground for more immigration in 2013. With a weak global economic outlook, they are banking on keeping immigration at 80k to 100k to starve off recession. If things get really bad, they might even go full throttle to the pre-GE 2011 levels of 120k to 150k. They would justify the policy by saying it was necessary to keep Singapore growing and out of recession.

 

[TracyTan866]

Yes. As long as FT increase there will be grow in total GDP but income/person may drop.
That why never trust GDP data.
The best way to just is 20% lowest income. Does it grow or stay.
In SG lowest income group have been stay for 15 year. Eg cleaner/guard/driver salary stay the same for past 15 year some even see salary decrease.

good points..continued importing of cheap 3rd world foreign workers will widen income inequality. that's bad for SG

 

[TracyTan866]

Afraid its not that simple. You need employers ready to hire those foreigners first. In a recession hiring will definitely fall.

You might argue that the govt can always create artificial stimulus to the jobs market (and thereby create an opportunity to import more foreigners) by opening new construction or infrastructure contracts, etc, but that can only go so far.

agree...increasing cheap worker input can't go on indefinitely. the sooner the pap realises this, the better it is for SG

 

[Thick Face Black Heart]

agree...increasing cheap worker input can't go on indefinitely. the sooner the pap realises this, the better it is for SG

you can have foreign import but it must be carefully calibrated or you get into massive excesses like what we have now.

Our population problems had its roots in failed PAP policies to begin with, so we are essentially using one set of failed policies to cover up for an older set of failed policies.

We have been suffering under PAP incompetence for close to 30 years but only recently did we realize that. that is how effective the MSM has been at controlling perceptions. The 4th estate has done its job with such remarkable efficacy, i sometimes wonder if there's any way at all of combating that menace. Fortunately the internet does offer some hope.

 

[TracyTan866]

you can have foreign import but it must be carefully calibrated or you get into massive excesses like what we have now.

Our population problems had its roots in failed PAP policies to begin with, so we are essentially using one set of failed policies to cover up for an older set of failed policies.

We have been suffering under PAP incompetence for close to 30 years but only recently did we realize that. that is how effective the MSM has been at controlling perceptions. The 4th estate has done its job with such remarkable efficacy, i sometimes wonder if there's any way at all of combating that menace. Fortunately the internet does offer some hope.

Agree. we need more discerning Singaporeans like you to see through the pap's evil schemes.

SG will crumble under the pap

 

[TracyTan866]

recession cumming stil dunwan 2 sel ur shares? ...

Wing Tai is $1.765 today. was at $1.18 ...just gave dividend of 7cents recently. now it's 55.5% profit.

I hope you took my advice and have bought Wing Tai

 

[erection2015]

i didnt ....but i bought sembmarine and keppel just like you...only my keppel a bit high than yours.

Wing Tai is $1.765 today. was at $1.18 ...just gave dividend of 7cents recently. now it's 55.5% profit.

I hope you took my advice and have bought Wing Tai

 

[jubilee1919]

So this discussion will now deviate towards stocks and shares? Wasn't I correct that all this talk of doom and gloom based on "gut feel" was to get a feel of the stock market?

 

[TracyTan866]

i didnt ....but i bought sembmarine and keppel just like you...only my keppel a bit high than yours.

did u buy Tye Soon?

how mnuch did u pay for Kep Corp and Sem marine?

 

[TracyTan866]

i didnt ....but i bought sembmarine and keppel just like you...only my keppel a bit high than yours.

do you remember what I told you abt Wing tai?

 

[TracyTan866]

So this discussion will now deviate towards stocks and shares? Wasn't I correct that all this talk of doom and gloom based on "gut feel" was to get a feel of the stock market?

the main issue is still "Will SG enter recession in 2013"?

 

[TracyTan866]

So this discussion will now deviate towards stocks and shares? Wasn't I correct that all this talk of doom and gloom based on "gut feel" was to get a feel of the stock market?

stocks and share, like property, show the economic health of SG. Is it way out to talk and economic health in a recession thread like this?

 

[jubilee1919]

the main issue is still "Will SG enter recession in 2013"?

Yes based on your points 1 - 6 right? You should have put up a poll.