Reason for PAP 10% swing so obvious

[Leepotism]

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[TD="width: 86%, bgcolor: #F9F9F9, colspan: 4, align: left"]From AB Forum

Some Simple Mathematics
----
GE2011 - total vote cast 2,060,373
GE2015 - total vote cast 2,462,926
Net Increase = 402K
----
S'porean New Babies - 30K yearly
New S'porean Voters - 120K (4 yr)
----
Conclusion: New Citizens = 288K
That is a 14% increase
----
So no surprise we see a 10% swing
support From Foreigners

GE2019 - Total maybe 3mill
Bye bye Aljunied and hougang = Total PAP

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[JohnTan]

Re: Reason for PAP !0% swing so obvious

GE2011 didn't have Tanjong Pagar. GE2015 have. Did you factor that into your figures?

 

[eErotica69]

Re: Reason for PAP !0% swing so obvious

GE2011 didn't have Tanjong Pagar. GE2015 have. Did you factor that into your figures?

and new voters is not 120K but 198K. We got to take the birth rate from 1991 to 1994, NOT 2011 to 2015.

 

[3_M]

Re: Reason for PAP !0% swing so obvious

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[TD="width: 86%, bgcolor: #F9F9F9, colspan: 4, align: left"]From AB Forum

Some Simple Mathematics
----
GE2011 - total vote cast 2,060,373
GE2015 - total vote cast 2,462,926
Net Increase = 402K
----
S'porean New Babies - 30K yearly
New S'porean Voters - 120K (4 yr)
----
Conclusion: New Citizens = 288K
That is a 14% increase
----
So no surprise we see a 10% swing
support From Foreigners

GE2019 - Total maybe 3mill
Bye bye Aljunied and hougang = Total PAP

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It didn't factor in TP GRC where it was uncontested. Also left out is the number of voters who have passed on during the past 4 years.

I haven't check the figure let assume TP GRC got 140k voters and past 4 years, a total of 48k voters passed on.

So it should be 288k-140k+48k=196k.

 

[bigboss]

Re: Reason for PAP !0% swing so obvious

....GE2015 - total vote cast 2,462,926
Net Increase = 402K
----
S'porean New Babies - 30K yearly
New S'porean Voters - 120K (4 yr)
----
Conclusion: New Citizens = 288K
That is a 14% increase
----
So no surprise we see a 10% swing
support From Foreigners...

In post GE speeches and mainstream media reports, pappies' Ministers and their porlumpars attributed their win to cash handouts, love for LKY and SG50. Some even said pappies had changed for the better. All these are just bullshits.

The swing in favour of pappies is due one simple reason ... the imported foreigners who became sinkies. These foreigners had no reason to vote oppo parties but all reasons to vote pappies.

Add these fake sinkies to local elderly uncles and aunties who been voting pappies all their lives, and the outcome of GE2015 ... local sinkes get screwed.

This is one fact pappies Minister have no admitted so far. One day, these same fake sinkies will turn around and screw the pappies when the going gets hot and they get frustrated unless pappies can keep on dishing out goodies and freebies. How long can it last? The music must stop one day.

 

[LordElrond]

Re: Reason for PAP !0% swing so obvious

Flawed logic. GE2011 would have seen the same numbers of new citizen, if not more. Mass intake of new citizen did not start right after 2011.

 

[eErotica69]

Re: Reason for PAP !0% swing so obvious

Calculation flawed leh. The writer must either be an amatuer or he purposely distort the numbers

He never considered these:

1. He somehow missed out the 139,777 voters in Tanjong Pager who did not vote in 2011 but voted this time. He conveniently forgot to subtract this very large number. Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Singaporean_general_election,_2011

2. Number of true blue Singaporeans allowed to vote is NOT EQUAL to the current birth rate. It should be birth from 1991 to 1994. See table below. Total around 198,000 and not 120,000.

3. He has to add the number of deaths ( I cannot get the exact figures), but should be around 18,000 20,000 per year.
Source : http://www.singstat.gov.sg/statistics/visualising-data/charts/number-of-births-and-deaths

4. Number migrated overseas. Around 1200 yearly. Source: https://sg.news.yahoo.com/blogs/sin...poreans-citizenship-yearly-dpm-091548225.html

After considering 1 to 4 above, the New citizen numbers should be 144,481 and NOT 402,000!!



However my numbers still no good as I did not have the number

- for people who passed away in TP GRC (which is a double count).
- for new citizens who passed away from 2011 to 2014
- we are assuming that ALL new citizenship vote for PAP.

 

[Thick Face Black Heart]

Re: Reason for PAP !0% swing so obvious

Flawed logic. GE2011 would have seen the same numbers of new citizen, if not more. Mass intake of new citizen did not start right after 2011.

In fact, intake of foreigners slowed down after 2011. But then again - the conversion ratio of foreigners -> New citizens could have been higher in 2011-2015, so really I have no idea.

I only know that while new citizens are most likely a contributing factor, they are most likely not the most important factor. LKY/SG50/PGP is the key reason.

Those opposition parties that were most vehemently anti-foreigner suffered the worst decline.

WP and SDP weathered the storm better than the other parties because they took a more moderate route together with comprehensive policy proposals and a credible slate of candidates.

 

[xpo2015]

New citizens all think alike one har?

They dun have a mind of their own?

All voted for one single party?

 

[wendychan]

Re: Reason for PAP !0% swing so obvious

In post GE speeches and mainstream media reports, pappies' Ministers and their porlumpars attributed their win to cash handouts, love for LKY and SG50. Some even said pappies had changed for the better. All these are just bullshits.

The swing in favour of pappies is due one simple reason ... the imported foreigners who became sinkies. These foreigners had no reason to vote oppo parties but all reasons to vote pappies.

Add these fake sinkies to local elderly uncles and aunties who been voting pappies all their lives, and the outcome of GE2015 ... local sinkes get screwed.

This is one fact pappies Minister have no admitted so far. One day, these same fake sinkies will turn around and screw the pappies when the going gets hot and they get frustrated unless pappies can keep on dishing out goodies and freebies. How long can it last? The music must stop one day.

it wont stop for at least another generation...
so in the meantime, the perpetrators and supporters of this immigration policy will be enjoying their materail comforts....

my only hope is that ALL will die a horrible death and burn in hell for a million years beyond eternity and be reborn as the lowest form of animals

 

[butoh6050]

New citizens all think alike one har?
They dun have a mind of their own?
All voted for one single party?

Strong possibility that they voted PAP.
All oppo was against 6.9 and mass immigration as you can see from the rallies.
The new citizens have families and loved ones that they want to bring over plus they themselves have good jobs. Why jinx it with voting oppo. Rules may change. They may need to prove their worth. Maybe passing an english test, Proving their cert is legit, employement pass may not be renewed etc.

 

[Hans168]

Re: Reason for PAP !0% swing so obvious

GE2011 didn't have Tanjong Pagar. GE2015 have. Did you factor that into your figures?

Hi shithead did you factor in that it cud be more than 400,000 shitizens added?

 

[Brightkid]

Re: Reason for PAP !0% swing so obvious

Don't think there is even a need to debate about new citizens la. It will be so different from now till next election, if there's a need for one.

Over the next 4-5 years, new citizen numbers is going to be exponential so much that opposition is just a show for election show. True blue citizens will be a minority and will not pose a threat to the ruling party.

The kiasu kiasi had just missed the last boat to a truly democratic nation.

Primary school day care fee is set to increase as reported by MyPaper today. This is just appetiser for what more to come. Meanwhile, enjoy it and do not complain anymore.

 

[no_faith]

Re: Reason for PAP !0% swing so obvious

I overheard a new citizen saying he sure vote for pap. He has converted from pr to citizen.
Cos he is comparing with his ex home vs new home.
He say over the years sinkapore properous over the years. In many areas it is better than his ex home prc.

He dont born here. He is not true blue sinkaporean. His root not here.
Dunno how he come up with such comments.

 

[JHolmesJr]

Re: Reason for PAP !0% swing so obvious

I overheard a new citizen saying he sure vote for pap. He has converted from pr to citizen.
Cos he is comparing with his ex home vs new home.
He say over the years sinkapore properous over the years. In many areas it is better than his ex home prc.

He dont born here. He is not true blue sinkaporean. His root not here.
Dunno how he come up with such comments.

First of all, please accept our congratulations on how sharp your hearing is….you can't buy that sort of health.

Second, what makes you think the fellow is lying….he is probably right…ask him again in 15 years and he might tell you different.