Property News

[FHBH12]

Singapore property prices to double by 2030: Morgan Stanley

Leslie Shaffer
CNBC
Thursday, Apr 13, 2017

The protracted downtrend in Singapore's property market is poised to end next year, with home prices set to double by 2030, Morgan Stanley said in a Wednesday note.

"Property market bears expect slower population growth, an ageing population, and a structural growth slowdown to weigh on the long-term property market outlook," the note said. "We disagree and believe home prices will double by 2030."

That implies a 5 to 6 per cent increase per annum and would mark a reversal from a long downtrend in home prices.

In the first quarter, overall private home prices fell 0.5 per cent on-quarter, the 14th straight quarter of declines. This time around, however, the bulk of the decline was in relatively small landed property segment, while non-landed prices were steady.

The city-state's housing prices surged more than 60 per cent from 2009 through 2013, propelled by rock-bottom global interest rates and quantitative easing in developed economies, even as the government enacted a series of cooling measures from 2011 to prevent a bubble from forming.

But in early March, the government scaled back some of the curbs, including lowering the seller's stamp duty and shortening the minimum holding period to avoid it.

Morgan Stanley said that was a signal the property market was closer to the bottom, which should improve buyer sentiment.

There were signs buyer sentiment has already picked up: One recent launch, Park Place Residences, sold its entire phase one, initially set at 40 per cent of the 429-unit total before being raised to 50 per cent, within a day.

The bank expected sales volume would surge this year, with the increases in transaction volumes to spur prices higher next year.

Supply was also set to decline, the bank noted. From 2014-16, private residential supply added around 20,000 units a year, twice the historical average since 1990, it noted. But in 2017-18, supply levels were set to fall 40 per cent each year, it said.

The property market in Singapore can be closely watched for economic and investment implications.

Morgan Stanley noted that around 91 per cent of Singapore's resident households own their homes, with residential property around 45 per cent of total household gross assets last year.

Additionally, Asian investors tend to have large allocations to property in their portfolios.

- See more at: http://news.asiaone.com/news/busine...uble-2030-morgan-stanley#sthash.HrQnoF47.dpuf

 

[FHBH12]

Winter ending to Singapore's property market

PUBLISHED APR 14, 2017, 5:00 AM SGT

Signs of a revival are strong, with increased sales volumes and fierce bidding for land

It has been a long winter for Singapore's property market, but the first blooms of spring are showing. The signs of a revival are strong, such as greatly increased sales volumes and fierce bidding for land by developers ready to fork out eye-watering sums.

The latest pointer to an upturn was the keenly contested Toh Tuck Road site, which drew 24 developers - a record for a non-landed government sale site.

Malaysian developer S P Setia offered $265 million for the 18,721.4 sq m plot, which works out to $939 per square foot (psf) per plot ratio, surprising analysts, who were expecting bids capped at $200 million.

"Developers have a positive view of the market from 2018," said Ms Tricia Song, head of research at Colliers International.

"The land price for the Toh Tuck site was way above expectations, implying a breakeven cost of $1,490 psf," she added, noting that a 10 per cent profit margin would imply an average selling price of $1,660 psf.

"Based on that profit margin, the developer is probably looking at a 10 to 15 per cent price appreciation over the next three years."

Private home sales figures have also whetted the appetite of developers. A total of 977 units were sold in February, treble the 303 units sold in the same month last year, raising expectations for new home sales figures to be released next Monday.

Dr Lee Nai Jia, head of South-east Asia research at Edmund Tie and Company, said that developers are encouraged by sales at Park Place Residences, as the units there are quite expensive. "This makes them optimistic that while bid prices may be high, there is demand for good-quality homes," he added. ST FILE PHOTO
Mr Alan Cheong, head of Singapore research at Savills, was unequivocally bullish on his assessment of the market.

"The market has turned around and, on the ground, people are now recommitting," he said.

Mr Cheong noted that unchanged cooling measures, like the total debt servicing ratio (TDSR), have made the revival of the market look more gradual, preventing it from "turning in its full glory".

But property watchers should not expect a revival akin to a roaring dragon come back to life. Mr Cheong likened it to "a newborn baby" that was "still fragile".

"The turnaround in sentiment is noticeable and broad-based, but it lacks the horsepower to accept certain strides in prices - although a gradual creep in prices upward can be accepted by the market," he said, adding that seasoned property agents were now busy closing deals.

Most analysts were cautiously optimistic, forecasting higher sales volumes, but adding that prices would continue declining and hit bottom by the end of this year.

Dr Lee Nai Jia, head of South-east Asia research at Edmund Tie and Company, said that "because of the current excitement, there will be more en bloc sales".

"Developers are also encouraged by sales at Park Place Residences, as the units are quite expensive. This makes them optimistic that while bid prices may be high, there is demand for good-quality homes," Dr Lee said.

Land prices are unlikely to come down, as foreign developers have shown strong interest and could be more focused on getting boasting rights to having developed a property in Singapore than making maximum profit, he added.

Meanwhile, Mr Desmond Sim, CBRE's head of research for Singapore and South-east Asia, was more cautious, saying that it is "too early to call it a turnaround".

"There is a lot of positivity in the market after the tweak in cooling measures, but if you couldn't buy because of TDSR two months ago, you still can't buy now," he noted.

Mr Sim added that while the record low number of unsold units, land prices and aggressive bidding favour a positive reading of the market, macroeconomic factors and the fact that "larger units are not being sold" call for a more balanced view.

"A housing purchase is not like buying a Louis Vuitton bag - macroeconomic views still matter," he said, citing higher unemployment rates and the likelihood of further interest rate hikes.

http://www.straitstimes.com/business/winter-ending-for-spores-property-market

 

[FHBH12]

As property market stirs to life, agents out in force to bag listings

Hot properties sought after include The Peak @ Toa Payoh and units at Ghim Moh Link

By KENNETH CHENG

Published 9:20 PM, APRIL 14, 2017
Updated 9:35 PM, April 14, 2017

SINGAPORE — With the residential property market showing signs of recovery after a protracted downtrend, property agents are pulling out the stops to sniff out potential sellers, including going door-to-door at some developments in highly-sought-after locations.

A check with residents at three residential properties nearing or past their Minimum Occupation Period — The Peak @ Toa Payoh, Ghim Moh Link and Clementi Avenue 3 — showed that estate agents have, in the past two months, intensified their efforts in finding owners willing to sell. Units bought under the Build-to-Order (BTO), Design, Build and Sell, and executive condominium schemes can only be sold after five years of key collection.

At The Peak — which reaches its minimum occupation period of five years this year — a resident, who wanted to be known only as Mrs Tay said she has been receiving “at least 10 flyers” each week from different agents. The flyers started landing in the mail last year, but have intensified in recent weeks, said the 38-year-old housewife.

Although a keycard is needed to access the residential floors, some agents have managed to get in and have been knocking on doors to seek out potential sellers, residents said.

Ms Joey Tham, 34, said an agent has appeared at her doorstep on one occasion and asked if she was planning to move out or invest in another property. Her domestic helper had also turned away “a few” others, added the former schoolteacher. Flyers have also been placed on the windscreen of residents’ cars.

A retired schoolteacher, who gave his name only as Mr Tang, 80, said he has also fielded “a number of calls” from agents at his home at The Peak.

Residents said the aggressive wooing by estate agents do not bother them much.

Ms Tham said: “They’re not very pushy, (so) I thought it was okay.”

Mrs Tay added: “I’m waiting for the agents to get over it. It’s just a matter of time they’ll stop sending these things.”

When TODAY visited Block 28 Ghim Moh Link on Friday (April 14) afternoon, flyers from the same agent lined a row of eight units on the 40th storey.

A resident, who wanted to be identified only as Mr Lim, 40, said his unit reaches its minimum occupation period this month and flyers have been stuffed into his mailbox or between the grilles of his door “almost every week”.

Mr Lim, who is self-employed in the engineering industry, said: “We get updated on the resale prices ... which is a good thing.”

Another resident, Mr Siew Yew Kong, 65, said he receives up to five pamphlets each week, both at his door and in the mail. With no plans to sell his unit, he has not responded to the agents: “When you approach them, they’ll keep chasing you.”

The retired sales representative said the choice remains in the hands of sellers. “Why should you be angry? They’re also earning a rice bowl,” he said.

Some blocks at the Clementi Town Centre, such as 441A and 441B Clementi Avenue 3, have also reached their minimum occupation period. Resident Tan Chek Kwang, 44, said he receives “four or five” brochures each month from agents, who started handing them out late last year.

Some agents, the product manager added, had indicated the rates of units that changed hands in nearby blocks. A four-room unit, for instance, could go for about S$900,000 — more than double the S$400,000 he had paid for his unit.

For the time being, he does not intend to let go of his home: “If you sell high, you’ve to buy high, unless we downgrade.”

Property agents interviewed by TODAY said it was not unusual for them to focus on properties nearing their minimum occupation period, especially when these are in good locations.

Ms Cheryl Chua, from the Dennis Wee Group, said home hunters who are unable to get a BTO flat would mostly seek out newer flats, particularly those in good locations like Ghim Moh Link, which is a stone’s throw away from Buona Vista MRT Station.

She said sales in the area have moved “very quickly”, with deals closed after “fewer than 10 viewings”. She has sold three or four units there in the last six months.

ERA agent Brandon Zheng said there is typically a large pool of sellers at such properties, with “hundreds of listings” close to their minimum occupation period.

“Normally, after five years, people would like to sell,” he said, noting that he has about 10 clients looking to sell their units at The Peak.

The agents said the property market has picked up in recent months, compared with the same period last year, with sales volumes on the rise.

In a sign of positive seller sentiment, HDB resale transaction volume and prices rose in March, according to SRX Property’s figures.

The number of units changing hands totalled 1,910, up 75.4 per cent from February, while prices inched up 0.3 per cent. Non-landed private home resale prices also rose for the fourth month in a row.

http://www.todayonline.com/as-prope...ay&cid=tg:recos:hmelsetoday:standard#cxrecs_s

 

[FHBH12]

JB property market in general is likely to remain in the doldrums for next 2-3 years (for some over-supplied areas 4-5 years). The pace of condo TOPs is going to accelerate this year and will continue well into 2018. Good to think twice if you are buying for flipping or rental.

 

[snowbird]

JB property market in general is likely to remain in the doldrums for next 2-3 years (for some over-supplied areas 4-5 years). The pace of condo TOPs is going to accelerate this year and will continue well into 2018. Good to think twice if you are buying for flipping or rental.

In all the promotional materials for the Forest City, the proximity of Singapore is always featured prominently (see the big map on the wall) and the sales girls even wear copy SIA stewardess uniform to give false impression.
So you can see very clearly, seems like Forest City can never be sold on its own merits.



However, exactly how many units were already sold in all the Mainland Chinese projects?
Different news reports gave different numbers.
According to this Straits Times report, Forest City only "sold" 8,000 units instead of 18,000 units reported elsewhere.
And for Princess Cove, the deputy GM of sales and marketing in Singapore, said that while news of oversupply in JB had hurt buying sentiment, they had achieved 60% of total sales last year in just the Q1, it has sold more than half its 3,000 or so units.
So, despite all the aggressive and intensive marketing for R&F Princess Cove, Country Garden and Greenland in Danga Bay and being in choice location, the sales 3 years on is actually quite a disappointment.

http://www.straitstimes.com/business/chinese-developers-still-going-flat-out-with-johors-forest-city

 

[FHBH12]

Private housing market may bottom out this year

WONG SIEW YING, THE STRAITS TIMES
Apr 29, 2017 06:00 am

Prices fell across the private residential, commercial and resale public housing segments in the first quarter, with the losing streak for private homes extending to 14 quarters - the longest slump in 13 years.

But analysts said the slower pace of decline and brisk sales in the first quarter suggests that the market could bottom out this year. Overall private home values dipped by 0.4 per cent from the fourth quarter to the first - led by the landed property segment - data from the Urban Redevelopment Authority showed yesterday.

The price drop was smaller than the 0.5 per cent fall from the third quarter to the fourth.

Private home values had fallen by 11.6 per cent as at March 31 since a peak in the third quarter of 2013, as cooling measures tamed demand.

Sentiment has turned positive, owing to easing of cooling measures last month and an improvement in the economy, drawing buyers back.

The first quarter saw the highest private home sales in 15 quarters at 5,202 units - comprising 2,962 new sales excluding executive condos and 2,170 resale transactions.

http://www.tnp.sg/news/business/pri...cial&utm_source=Facebook#link_time=1493551821

 

[FHBH12]

For Singapore residential properties in recent quarters:

New launch take-up rate - increasing
Sub-sale - increasing
TOP supply - decreasing
Unsold units - decreasing
Vacancy rate - decreasing

If GDP holds at around 2% growth, Singapore property market should bottom out in next 1-2 quarters.

https://www.ura.gov.sg/uol/media-room/news/2017/Apr/pr17-30.aspx

 

[FHBH12]

Concerns prevail, but Iskandar slowly taking shape

As Iskandar Malaysia heads into its 11th year of an ambitious 20-year plan, concerns over an excess supply of homes and the viability of the area still linger. Still, the region is continuing to attract investors, house hunters and students. This year, several high-profile residential projects will be completed, including Country Garden's Danga Bay and R&F's Princess Cove. In the first of a four-part series on Iskandar Malaysia, Lee Xin En gives an overview of the latest developments shaping up.

http://www.straitstimes.com/business/property/concerns-prevail-but-iskandar-slowly-taking-shape

 

[snowbird]

Concerns prevail, but Iskandar slowly taking shape

As Iskandar Malaysia heads into its 11th year of an ambitious 20-year plan, concerns over an excess supply of homes and the viability of the area still linger. Still, the region is continuing to attract investors, house hunters and students. This year, several high-profile residential projects will be completed, including Country Garden's Danga Bay and R&F's Princess Cove. In the first of a four-part series on Iskandar Malaysia, Lee Xin En gives an overview of the latest developments shaping up.

http://www.straitstimes.com/business/property/concerns-prevail-but-iskandar-slowly-taking-shape

At the present moment, it is very obvious that the residential is in excess supply.
Example can be seen in the Tropez Residences in Danga Bay which was completed for more than a year.
During daytime when you look up at the apartment blocks, most units are bare without any furnishing and at night, only very few units has lights on.
It clearly show very low occupancy there.

Most of the condo units in JB were bought as investment with owners looking forward to flip or collect rental to service the loan.
With the completion of Country Garden and Princess Cove by next year with an addition of over 10,000 units, the resale and rental situation will be very much worse.

 

[Bubble]

At the present moment, it is very obvious that the residential is in excess supply.
Example can be seen in the Tropez Residences in Danga Bay which was completed for more than a year.
During daytime when you look up at the apartment blocks, most units are bare without any furnishing and at night, only very few units has lights on.
It clearly show very low occupancy there.

Most of the condo units in JB were bought as investment with owners looking forward to flip or collect rental to service the loan.
With the completion of Country Garden and Princess Cove by next year with an addition of over 10,000 units, the resale and rental situation will be very much worse.

HIGH PROBABILITY...THERE WILL BE MORE LIGHTS WHEN RTS MATERIALISES.For know jams and cost by car is putting people off

 

[FHBH12]

Iskandar developer unfazed by influx of China firms
PUBLISHED MAY 23, 2017, 5:00 AM SGT

http://www.straitstimes.com/business/developer-unfazed-by-influx-of-china-firms?login=true

 

[FHBH12]

Real Estate Market Outlook 2017

http://www.cbre-wtw.com.my/en/latest-release/market-report/real-estate-market-outlook-2017.html

 

[FHBH12]

HIGH RISE RESIDENTIAL

Iskandar Malaysia

The high-rise residential market in IM is further softening and remain challenging in 2016 as compared to 2015 and the last few years. The existing supply of high-rise residential (apartment, condominium and serviced residence) in 2016 is extimated at 43,898 units, increased approximately 16% from the previous year.

Our in-house survey revealed that about 15 high-rise residential developments were completed since 2H2015, of which majority are serviced residence developments, contributing an additional of approximately 9,025 units to the market, with near to 50% of the units are located in Iskandar Puteri. All these newly completed developments are currently recorded a fairly low occupancies of less than 30%.

The average transaction values of high-rise residential units in sub-sale market was analysed at RM370 psf or about 11% lower than last year and transaction volume is 50% lesser than previous year. Highest transaction price recorded in the secondary market are units within KSL City D’Esplanade, with price of RM730 psf. This followed by Sri Samudera and Zenith Suites with units changed hand at average of RM460 to RM470 psf. For year 2016, most of the transactions were in Molek Pine of Taman Molek, however the transaction prices are more than 20% lower compared to the previous developer’s selling prices.

Based on our survey, there are only a few high rise residential developments launched in 2016 namely Southern Marina Residences at Puteri Harbour offered 456 units with selling prices ranged from RM900 to RM1,300 psf. Grand Medini (Tower C ) at Medini was offered to public at RM850 to RM1,200 psf while Phase 1 of The Elysia Residence and Tower A of The M - Macrolink Medini, both located at Medini, are launched at RM850 to RM900 psf and RM860 to RM950 psf respectively.

Forest City , a newly launched mega projects by the joint venture between Country Garden Holdings Co Ltd (Hong Kong listed property developer) and Johor’s Esplanade Danga 88 Sdn Bhd, will be located on four man-made islands near to the Malaysia-Singapore 2nd Link and spans over 1,386 ha and is a duty-free zone which enjoys special incentives. To date, we understand
that more than 13,000 units have been sold and approximately 75% was purchased by China purchasers. The selling price for the condominium is pegged at RM1,200 psf onwards.

Year 2017 will expect new completion of approximately 19,000 high rise units, resulting to a total of about 63,000 units in IM. Lower transaction price in secondary market and higher vacancy rate are expected due to competitive market.

http://www.cbre-wtw.com.my/en/latest-release/market-report/real-estate-market-outlook-2017.html

 

[FHBH12]

LANDED RESIDENTIAL

Iskandar Malaysia

The supply of landed residential in 2016 stood at 294,694 units and terraced houses continued to form the bulk of supply at 83% of the total. The number of houses is expected to increase by 13,584 units in the next two years, comprising 91% of terraced, 7% of semi-detached and 2% of detached houses.

In the sub-sale market, 2-storey terraced houses were transacted at RM321 psf over built-up area which is about the same as compare to RM325 psf (only 1% different) in 2015, and 40%
lesser in terms of volume, as of August 2016. In older established housing schemes, Permas Jaya recorded higher transaction values at RM300 psf followed by RM275 to RM285 psf achieved
by Taman Perling and Taman Pelangi.

In newer developments such as Bukit Indah, Taman Sutera Utama and Horizon Hills, similar type of properties were transacted in the range of RM325 to RM395 psf, about 5 to 10% lower than the previous year. Majority of the new housing schemes are gated and guarded developments and some are completed with basic facilities.

Prices of 2 storey semi-detached houses have also dropped by about 10% in general, recorded at RM488 psf in 2016. Transaction volume as of Auguct 2016 was approximately 40% lesser than 2015, only one transaction was found in East Ledang and no transaction recorded for Horizon Hills. The highest transacted price was recorded in East Ledang of RM702
psf and followed by RM588 psf in Taman Pelangi.

As our observation, lesser developments were being launched in 2016 as compared to previous years. Two projects were launched in Skudai viz. Mutiara Bestari and Rini Homes which offer 2 and 3 storey cluster and 2 storey terraced houses at RM315 and RM280 psf respectively. In Iskandar Puteri, the develepor of Melia Residences has priced their 2 storey terraced houses (Phase 1 & 2) at RM270 to RM350 psf. At the eastern corridor, 2 storey terraced houses in Meridin East and Bandar Alam Masai are selling in the range of RM200 to RM225 psf.

Landed terraced houses with more affordable prices remained as one of the most favorite products. The market is expected to continue be a buyers’ market and is predicted to maintain as its current momentum in the near future.

http://www.cbre-wtw.com.my/en/latest-release/market-report/real-estate-market-outlook-2017.html

 

[snowbird]

HIGH RISE RESIDENTIAL

Iskandar Malaysia

The high-rise residential market in IM is further softening and remain challenging in 2016 as compared to 2015 and the last few years. The existing supply of high-rise residential (apartment, condominium and serviced residence) in 2016 is extimated at 43,898 units, increased approximately 16% from the previous year.

Our in-house survey revealed that about 15 high-rise residential developments were completed since 2H2015, of which majority are serviced residence developments, contributing an additional of approximately 9,025 units to the market, with near to 50% of the units are located in Iskandar Puteri. All these newly completed developments are currently recorded a fairly low occupancies of less than 30%.

The average transaction values of high-rise residential units in sub-sale market was analysed at RM370 psf or about 11% lower than last year and transaction volume is 50% lesser than previous year. Highest transaction price recorded in the secondary market are units within KSL City D’Esplanade, with price of RM730 psf. This followed by Sri Samudera and Zenith Suites with units changed hand at average of RM460 to RM470 psf. For year 2016, most of the transactions were in Molek Pine of Taman Molek, however the transaction prices are more than 20% lower compared to the previous developer’s selling prices - people are desperate to sell even at a loss!!!
Based on our survey, there are only a few high rise residential developments launched in 2016 namely Southern Marina Residences at Puteri Harbour offered 456 units with selling prices ranged from RM900 to RM1,300 psf. Grand Medini (Tower C ) at Medini was offered to public at RM850 to RM1,200 psf while Phase 1 of The Elysia Residence and Tower A of The M - Macrolink Medini, both located at Medini, are launched at RM850 to RM900 psf and RM860 to RM950 psf respectively.

Forest City , a newly launched mega projects by the joint venture between Country Garden Holdings Co Ltd (Hong Kong listed property developer) and Johor’s Esplanade Danga 88 Sdn Bhd, will be located on four man-made islands near to the Malaysia-Singapore 2nd Link and spans over 1,386 ha and is a duty-free zone which enjoys special incentives. To date, we understand
that more than 13,000 units have been sold and approximately 75% was purchased by China purchasers. The selling price for the condominium is pegged at RM1,200 psf onwards.

Year 2017 will expect new completion of approximately 19,000 high rise units, resulting to a total of about 63,000 units in IM. Lower transaction price in secondary market and higher vacancy rate are expected due to competitive market.

http://www.cbre-wtw.com.my/en/latest-release/market-report/real-estate-market-outlook-2017.html

Don't seem to be a piece of good news for investors waiting to off load their properties!
With the GE14 looming, which has to be carried out by Aug 2018, people are waiting for the outcome of GE14, till then, the whole property market will be extremely quiet.

 

[snowbird]

A 5 years chart showing property scenario in SG where gains are falling while the losses are rising!
Earlier reports are also showing a similar trend in the resale market in Malaysia with people selling below developer's selling prices.

Lower transaction price in secondary market and higher vacancy rate are expected due to competitive market.

 

[eric3417]

lol. What i see from the chart is market bottoming. Losses are running out of steam & gains stabilising.

 

[snowbird]

lol. What i see from the chart is market bottoming. Losses are running out of steam & gains stabilising.

Very optimistic of you.
So, what are the factors that will make this happens.

3 years ago, people said the things you just said.
2 years ago, people again said the things you just said.
Last year, people said one more time the things you just said.
But the trend stubbornly proved otherwise.
Now what?
So, next year, will the chart moves in the same trend or buck the trend?

 

[eric3417]

Haha. Im not making any predictions as im just a nobody. Im just stating the conclusion i draw for myself base on the chart i saw. Half empty or Half full? To each his own.

 

[snowbird]

Malaysia's central bank warns of property glut

Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) warned on Friday (Nov 17) that :

* Unsold residential properties are at their highest level in a decade, with the largest oversupply found in southern Johor state.

* there were 130,690 unsold units at the end of March this year, 61% were high rise units.

* projected that one-in three offices will be vacant by 2021

* Johor is poised to have the largest property market imbalances (highest number of unsold residential properties and potentially the largest excess supply of retail space).

* Developers to build condominiums at ever-increasing prices even though salaries have failed to catch up.

As of March this year, there are 130,690 unsold units from the developers as reported.
However, this is not including those units purchased by investors / flippers, waiting to resell their units during the boom.
So all together, don't be surprise that there are more than half a million vacant units available in the market now.
A bit of advice for those wanting to invest in JB, be careful, be very careful.

http://www.straitstimes.com/asia/se-asia/malaysias-central-bank-warns-of-property-glut