Predict GE 2025 results - vote your choice on the likely outcome

[zhihau]

I hate to say this but I only foresee Hougang firmly in WP’s hand. AJ-GRC very shaky as a number of my kakis punched hole in their ICs over the last few years. EC is an another close fight, that’s all folks.

I’ll get my kakis in the East Coast plan to get into action!

 

[Hightech88]

Grok AI updates as at 23/4/2025:

Context and Latest Developments *​

GE 2025, set for May 3, 2025, features 97 seats across 33 constituencies (18 GRCs, 15 SMCs), with new areas like Punggol GRC and Sembawang West SMC. In GE 2020, PAP’s voteshare was 61.24%, while WP won 10 seats (Aljunied GRC at 59.93%, Sengkang GRC, Hougang SMC). WP has introduced 14 new candidates, including senior counsel Harpreet Singh, who is contesting Punggol GRC against PAP’s Deputy Prime Minister Gan Kim Yong. Punggol GRC (123,557 voters, over 50% aged 21-45) is a high-risk seat for PAP due to WP’s momentum and Singh’s appeal. SDP targets Sembawang GRC, Marsiling-Yew Tee GRC, Bukit Panjang SMC (Paul Tambyah), and Sembawang West SMC (Chee Soon Juan). PSP focuses on Chua Chu Kang GRC and SMCs like Bukit Gombak.

Three Voteshare Scenarios for GE 2025​

Scenario 1: PAP Voteshare at 60–62% (Slight Decline, Baseline Scenario)​

• Overall Outcome: PAP’s voteshare remains stable, reflecting trust in Wong’s leadership. WP retains Aljunied GRC (59.93% in 2020), Sengkang GRC (52.12%), and Hougang SMC (61.2%), and wins Punggol GRC with Singh’s appeal to younger voters, securing 3 GRCs and 1 SMC (13 seats). PSP might win 1 SMC (e.g., Bukit Gombak), but lacks strong GRC prospects.
• SDP in Bukit Panjang and Sembawang West SMCs: In Bukit Panjang SMC, Tambyah (46.27% in 2020) could win with a 2–3% swing, securing 48–49% as PAP drops to 51–52%. In Sembawang West SMC, Chee faces PAP’s Poh Li San in a straight fight, but PAP likely holds at 55–57%, though Chee might narrow it to 52–53%.
• Total Opposition Wins: WP: 3 GRCs, 1 SMC (13 seats); SDP: 1 SMC (Bukit Panjang); PSP: 1 SMC (2 seats). Opposition total: 16 seats, leaving PAP with 81 seats.

Scenario 2: PAP Voteshare at 55–58% (Moderate Decline, Opposition Surge)​

• Overall Outcome: A 3–6% drop reflects dissatisfaction with PAP’s handling of issues like cost of living. WP secures 4 GRCs—Aljunied, Sengkang, Punggol, and possibly East Coast GRC (PAP 53.4% in 2020)—plus Hougang SMC, totaling 17 seats. PSP wins 2 SMCs (e.g., Bukit Gombak, Marymount).
• SDP in Bukit Panjang and Sembawang West SMCs: SDP wins Bukit Panjang SMC with Tambyah at 51–53% as PAP drops to 47–49%. In Sembawang West SMC, Chee could win with 50–51%, capitalizing on voter desire for diversity. SDP might also challenge in Marsiling-Yew Tee GRC, but PAP’s Wong likely holds.
• Total Opposition Wins: WP: 4 GRCs, 1 SMC (17 seats); SDP: 2 SMCs (2 seats); PSP: 2 SMCs (2 seats). Opposition total: 21 seats, leaving PAP with 76 seats.

Scenario 3: PAP Voteshare at 50–53% (Severe Decline, Critical Scenario)​

• Overall Outcome: An 8–11% drop signals a major voter backlash. WP wins 5 GRCs—Aljunied, Sengkang, Punggol, East Coast, and possibly Tampines GRC (multi-cornered fight splits PAP votes)—plus Hougang SMC, totaling 21 seats. PSP secures 2–3 SMCs.
• SDP in Bukit Panjang and Sembawang West SMCs: SDP wins Bukit Panjang SMC decisively at 53–55% and Sembawang West SMC at 52–54%. SDP might also take Marsiling-Yew Tee GRC, a symbolic upset against Wong’s team.
• Total Opposition Wins: WP: 5 GRCs, 1 SMC (21 seats); SDP: 1 GRC, 2 SMCs (7 seats); PSP: 2–3 SMCs (2–3 seats). Opposition total: 30–31 seats, leaving PAP with 66–67 seats.

PM Lawrence Wong’s Resignation Threshold​

Wong’s acknowledgment of a 65% voteshare ceiling suggests he anticipates opposition gains. In Scenario 1 (60–62%), his position is secure, though losing Punggol GRC stings. In Scenario 2 (55–58%), pressure mounts with 21 opposition seats, but resignation is unlikely unless PAP loses key GRCs like Marsiling-Yew Tee. In Scenario 3 (50–53%), with PAP at 66–67 seats, Wong faces intense scrutiny. Historically, PAP leaders have stepped down after significant voteshare drops (e.g., Goh Chok Tong after 61% in 1991), but Wong might hold on unless the voteshare falls below 50%, risking a coalition government—a scenario he warned about in 2024.

Conclusion​

WP could win 3–5 GRCs (Punggol, Aljunied, Sengkang, possibly East Coast or Tampines) and Hougang SMC, totaling 13–21 seats. SDP and PSP might secure 3–5 SMCs, with Bukit Panjang and Sembawang West as key wins in Scenarios 2 and 3. PAP’s voteshare may drop to 50–62%, with 50–53% threatening Wong’s leadership, though resignation seems improbable above 50%. Punggol GRC, with Harpreet Singh challenging Gan Kim Yong, will be a pivotal indicator of Singapore’s shifting political landscape.
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* Grok AI updates based on real-time data and latest developments.