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You can select up to two choices. Laolan LW already admitted that moving forward in future GEs, PAP is unlikely to exceed 65% in voteshare as people want more diversity in parliament. So take your pick.
Scenario 1: PAP lost WC-JW GRC, Aljunied GRC, Sengkang GRC, East Coast GRC, Sembawang & Hougang SMC
Scenario 2: No change from last GE - PAP lost Aljunied GRC, Sengkang GRC & Hougang SMC only
Scenario 3: PAP wins back Sengkang GRC but lost Aljunied GRC & Hougang SMC only
Scenario 4: PAP lost til drop pants - Oppo hold > 1/3 seats in parliament, PAP cannot suka suka change constitution - Creating history
Scenario 5: PAP clean sweep all seats, with ZERO opposition seats in parliament. SG is doomed.
Scenario 6: WP won back all seats from last GE and PAP lost Bukit Panjang SMC to SDP - Paul Tambyah carries the sole SDP flag
Source：https://www.eld.gov.sg/elections_map_electoral.html
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Singaporean_general_election#Results
Deepseek AI analysis:
If the opposition in Singapore wins more than one-third of the seats in Parliament in the upcoming General Election (GE) 2025, it would have significant implications for the People's Action Party (PAP) and the political landscape in Singapore. Specifically, it would affect the PAP's ability to amend the Constitution, as well as other legislative processes. Here's a breakdown of the implications:
Scenario 1: PAP lost WC-JW GRC, Aljunied GRC, Sengkang GRC, East Coast GRC, Sembawang & Hougang SMC
Scenario 2: No change from last GE - PAP lost Aljunied GRC, Sengkang GRC & Hougang SMC only
Scenario 3: PAP wins back Sengkang GRC but lost Aljunied GRC & Hougang SMC only
Scenario 4: PAP lost til drop pants - Oppo hold > 1/3 seats in parliament, PAP cannot suka suka change constitution - Creating history
Scenario 5: PAP clean sweep all seats, with ZERO opposition seats in parliament. SG is doomed.
Scenario 6: WP won back all seats from last GE and PAP lost Bukit Panjang SMC to SDP - Paul Tambyah carries the sole SDP flag
Source：https://www.eld.gov.sg/elections_map_electoral.html
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Singaporean_general_election#Results
Deepseek AI analysis:
If the opposition in Singapore wins more than one-third of the seats in Parliament in the upcoming General Election (GE) 2025, it would have significant implications for the People's Action Party (PAP) and the political landscape in Singapore. Specifically, it would affect the PAP's ability to amend the Constitution, as well as other legislative processes. Here's a breakdown of the implications:
1. Constitutional Amendments
- Current Supermajority Requirement: In Singapore, certain constitutional amendments require a two-thirds majority in Parliament to pass. The PAP has historically held more than two-thirds of the seats, allowing it to amend the Constitution with little opposition.
- Implications of Opposition Winning >1/3 Seats: If the opposition secures more than one-third of the seats, the PAP would no longer have the two-thirds supermajority required to unilaterally amend the Constitution. This would mean that any constitutional changes would need at least some support from opposition members, making it harder for the PAP to push through significant constitutional reforms.
2. Checks and Balances
- Increased Accountability: A stronger opposition presence in Parliament would provide more robust checks and balances on the PAP's power. The opposition could scrutinize government policies more effectively and demand greater transparency.
- Policy Negotiations: The PAP might need to negotiate with opposition parties to pass major legislation, leading to more compromise and potentially more inclusive policymaking.
3. Political Stability and Governance
- Potential Gridlock: If the opposition and PAP cannot find common ground on key issues, there could be legislative gridlock, slowing down the passage of important bills.
- Shift in Political Culture: A larger opposition presence could signal a shift in Singapore's political culture, with greater acceptance of a multi-party system and more diverse viewpoints in governance.
4. Public Perception and PAP's Strategy
- Loss of Dominance: The PAP has dominated Singaporean politics since independence, and losing its supermajority would be a significant symbolic blow. It could lead to internal reflection and potential changes in the party's strategy and leadership.
- Voter Sentiment: Such a result would likely reflect growing voter desire for greater political diversity and accountability, which could influence the PAP's future policies and outreach efforts.
5. Long-Term Implications
- Constitutional Safeguards: The opposition's ability to block constitutional changes could protect certain safeguards and prevent the PAP from consolidating power further.
- Potential for Coalition Politics: If the opposition continues to grow, Singapore might eventually see coalition governments, which would mark a dramatic shift from the current one-party dominance.
Conclusion
If the opposition wins more than one-third of the seats in GE 2025, it would fundamentally alter Singapore's political dynamics. The PAP would face greater challenges in amending the Constitution and passing major legislation, while the opposition would gain more influence in shaping the country's future. This scenario could lead to a more balanced and competitive political system, but it could also introduce new complexities in governance.
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