Politics in SG post HSK Succesor Gold Cup

[lockeliberal]

Baring a water to wine miracle, the reality is that the PMs designated successor has worked himself out of the running. Which means politics in SG and the gold cup for Successor is now up for bets and that the BE, Tharmen and LWL are all linked in one huge tangle .......but let's settle on what is known post LKY.

1. If u add TCB n TT together you get the PAP vote share for 2015 with a O.8 percent correlation. I believe that is indicative but one can disagree , but in essence TCB represents the centre 30 percent or the swing vote within the SG electorate. It swung to the opposition in 2011 and swung to the PAP in 2015 and swung in the BE back to 2011 indicative levels.


2. Constitutional amendments. whilst preventing TCB was clear and understandable, what was a surprise was the enhanced powers of the NCMPs creating in effect equal powers without constituency representation. This was a gift to the opposition when there was practically no reason on the coattails of a 69 percent PAP vote share.

3. LWL assertion of Dynastic politics on the part of LHL which was not answered with a law suit by the PM. Prior to this there was chatter serious ones of an attempt to field LHL son in 2015, but that did not pan out and might have been untrue, but with LWL bringing up that issue its now fair to take it as a fact.

4. If it is true, then LHL will need to hold on, retire , have a successor which he groomed and who would be loyal to him and leave him to groom his son whilst he becomes SM or MM. HSK would have fitted that bill as the perfect technocrat with the obvious weakness that he lacked Charisma which was pretty obvious to the civil service and would have in politics elsewhere left him out of the running.

5. But with HSK gone and some factions of the PAP unhappy with Tharmen because he's Indian and a possible charismatic successor , so the gold cup has now opened and the question is who

6. And for the pap factions which were loyal to LKY but not LHL then the option of opposition politics with the enhanced NCMP suddenly becomes very attractive.

 

[scroobal]

Welcome back bro, good to have you back.

And great post for discussion. Need time to digest as you always did your research and not forgetting your political acumen and your closeness to the ground.

 

[scroobal]

Now for the replies.

I would not factor PE and BE in any trend analysis but I do concede that it despite being a blunt instrument it does show what the electorate feel. I noted that PE is not taken seriously by voters and if the Govt is operating in normal times, the President breathing has no effect at all to anyone. The BE is taken more seriously and isolated by voters as an exception but never as important as a GE. Thats means GE2015 will continue to remain as the baseline for both the opposition and the PAP to work from for the next GE. BE 2012 and BE 2013 might have misled us all but the PAP.

NCMP powers I agree was a surprise and a misstep. PAP to my surprise did not realise that the wily fox would rotate his stars and use it to bring in more. Thus Chan Chun Sing amendment to LTK's motion. I am sure NCMP will be downgraded eventually.

LWL event was a blip and a family squabble. She just completed her book, has a huge following and wanted some time in the sun. There are no legs in this. The second son has no desire at all. First is being teased into taking on something in years to come. If he is to play a part, he will have enter next GE and follow pathway similar to Desmond Lee ( legacy admission). In someways unlike Old Man, the family succession plan was never been seriously worked on. 10 years of wasted time if dynastic aspirations are supposed to be in play. I think Ho Ching who is the extended family accepted Consigliere spent too much time on threading water in Temasek and the eye was not on the ball. They expected Old Man to do the work for them.

LHY's eldest son is the family's best hope both in form and substance and not sure how the grassroots and the sinocentric Singaporeans will take it as his brother has now set up home with his much shorter partner and has adopted a dog to complete his family and does not hide it and the toast of the LGBT. I do however think he will be in Govt in form or another. The concept of seat warmer has been and tested and it works. So not that desperate.

On successor in the event of a crisis, not an issue at all. TCH has been trained, knows the importance of the family jewels and will take over without a blip. Has covered all key ministries and held all positions except PM. Also has substantial grassroots support with some supporters rating him next to Old Man and above LHL.

As we discuss this, Leo Yip is been spoken to. His career trajectory planning has all the hallmarks of Ministerial role. He was HSK's immediate successor as PPS to old man. As to Tharman taking over, in the last few days I have been told that it is not in the cards despite his popularity and standing. There has been a schism of sorts in recent years years in the cabinet. Tharman and the ex Civi Servants have evolved into a bloc or alliance. Facing them are the "Politicians". Tharman is the acknowledged mentor and leader. It goes to explain the split in messages during BB BE.

I will cover the TCB and the 4th generation in more detail in another post.

Thank you for bringing up NCMP matters as it is interesting for both the opposition and the PAP. Not sure if the voters had cottoned on to it. The motive has not been examined in daylight.

Baring a water to wine miracle, the reality is that the PMs designated successor has worked himself out of the running. Which means politics in SG and the gold cup for Successor is now up for bets and that the BE, Tharmen and LWL are all linked in one huge tangle .......but let's settle on what is known post LKY.

1. If u add TCB n TT together you get the PAP vote share for 2015 with a O.8 percent correlation. I believe that is indicative but one can disagree , but in essence TCB represents the centre 30 percent or the swing vote within the SG electorate. It swung to the opposition in 2011 and swung to the PAP in 2015 and swung in the BE back to 2011 indicative levels.


2. Constitutional amendments. whilst preventing TCB was clear and understandable, what was a surprise was the enhanced powers of the NCMPs creating in effect equal powers without constituency representation. This was a gift to the opposition when there was practically no reason on the coattails of a 69 percent PAP vote share.

3. LWL assertion of Dynastic politics on the part of LHL which was not answered with a law suit by the PM. Prior to this there was chatter serious ones of an attempt to field LHL son in 2015, but that did not pan out and might have been untrue, but with LWL bringing up that issue its now fair to take it as a fact.

4. If it is true, then LHL will need to hold on, retire , have a successor which he groomed and who would be loyal to him and leave him to groom his son whilst he becomes SM or MM. HSK would have fitted that bill as the perfect technocrat with the obvious weakness that he lacked Charisma which was pretty obvious to the civil service and would have in politics elsewhere left him out of the running.

5. But with HSK gone and some factions of the PAP unhappy with Tharmen because he's Indian and a possible charismatic successor , so the gold cup has now opened and the question is who

6. And for the pap factions which were loyal to LKY but not LHL then the option of opposition politics with the enhanced NCMP suddenly becomes very attractive.

 

[lockeliberal]

Scoobal

Do clear your PMs and was about to sent PM to you describing to you the context of where I heard the chatter of LHL and his son but your storage quota has been exceeded. So whilst I agree that LHY son is by far the one with the prodigious talent and charisma. The one that was being mooted was LHL son,,,,,,,but then again parents can be biased,

LWL accusation was interesting is that her "angst" "anger" "peeve" was very very directed. She had no objections to "dynastic politics" she had objections to LHL using and sullying LKYs name for dynastic politics. In short if your name is good enough, use it to bring up your son, but do not use my fathers name to bring up your son in the same way that LKY used his name and reputation to bring you up. I do see her as angry but angry and calculated with every chess move planned in advance,

The NCMP enhanced was in my view a lead up to a PAP split or giving an alternative to PAP factions he can no longer control with the passing of his father. I can't explain the generosity in any other way or perhaps his analysis said he was going to lose badly in the next decade and this was his only means of loss minimisation.

Leo I can't comment but Ravi was mooted as a FM for a steady pair of hands during this critical period.

 

[TwitSeng]

4th generation all don't have the "seh" to lead the nation. We are doomed.