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PLA 1 US Navy ZERO! 辽宁 Battle Group Booted USS Ronald Reagan out of West Pacific (off Taiwan) this week! GVGT! Dotard jump White House Roof!

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http://www.sohu.com/a/319918399_120091711?spm=smpc.home.mil-news.3.1560311663227oGyoGnA





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关键时刻!辽宁舰现身宫古海峡,局势瞬间逆转,里根号灰溜溜离开

2019-06-12 00:01

根据日本共同社6月11号的最新报道称,就在当天PLAN的辽宁号航母战斗群通过了宫古海峡,这是辽宁号航空母舰,自从2016年以来第一次通过第一岛链。东方大国在如此关键的时刻做出这样的举动无疑释放了明确信号,要知道谈判桌上的外交辞令最终都来源于国家实力。国家实力又分两个方面,第一是经济实力,其次便是至关重要的军事实力。在东方大国与美国的贸易纠纷如火如荼的情况之下,辽宁号航母战斗群通过宫古海峡进入太平洋的举动无疑是想告诉美国人,东方大国不仅仅在经济实力上能够与美国人一决高下,在军事实力上,美国也休想在西太平洋地区占到我们任何的便宜。

e10fe4140ffd4c1498fc9f1b28cf529c.JPG


值得一提的是,此次辽宁号航母战斗群前出宫古海峡进入太平洋的举动,同样是对美军近些年来在亚太地区频繁秀肌肉的最好回应。前不久美国海军第七舰队的里根号核动力航空母舰从其驻地横须贺港离开,进入太平洋与澳大利亚印度以及日本三国海军举行联合演习。除此之外在我南部海域,美军的动作也是十分频繁。前几天在我东部海域更是发生了俄罗斯军舰,差点与美国军舰在海上碰撞的危险事件。如果此时我们不站出来表明自己的态度的话,美国在亚太地区未来类似的秀肌肉举动无疑会更加嚣张,到那时候就永无宁日了。

4e60da825d5845e99785636ef7a411da.JPG


事实证明美国人纸老虎的本质从几十年前到现在一直没有改变过,里根号核动力航空母舰此前一直在宫古海峡地区游弋徘徊,由于缺少护航的驱逐舰护卫舰,因此辽宁号航母战斗群在通过宫古海峡之前,里根号航母就已经灰溜溜离开了。对此有俄罗斯军事专家分析称,此次里根号面对辽宁号离开很可能就是未来亚太地区局势逆转的缩影。如今的PLAN正在像下饺子,一般入列新型的水面作战舰艇和潜艇,未来美国海军很有可能无力面对PLAN的强烈冲击。

551c809602c54dde9eb8a05a92d2d753.jpeg


值得一提的是辽宁舰此次的目标,应该是检验舰体升级改造后的战斗力。同时磨练航母编队,以及恢复歼15战机起降。毕竟在船厂升级大半年了都没有出海,此次出海应该是重新恢复生成战斗力。返回搜狐,查看更多




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http://www.sohu.com/a/319947726_357283?spm=smpc.home.mil-news.1.1560311663227oGyoGnA




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【解局】中国航母编队再出第一岛链!别急,会成常态的

2019-06-11 22:39



辽宁舰战斗群穿越宫古海峡入太平洋 三年来首次!

日本NHK电视台今天报道,日本防卫省发现,中国海军航母辽宁舰在当地时间11日早晨穿过“宫古海峡”,由东海进入太平洋,随行的还有补给舰等其他军舰。

日本防卫省高度紧张,立刻出动海上自卫队的山雾号、海雾号、松雪号三艘驱逐舰跟踪监视,称这是自2016年12月以来,中国航母第二次通过该海域

“宫古海峡”在哪呢?如下图所示,它位于冲绳本岛与宫古岛之间。

d89547417d02425c82d85226382da29a.jpeg


其实仔细看看上图,我们多少也能理解日方为什么有些紧张,毕竟中方再次突破了所谓的“第一岛链”。

不过岛叔想说的是,这不是什么大事,中国的舰船、战机已经很多次穿过“宫古”了,对于航母也不是第一次。

日本不必大惊小怪,以后中国航母出“宫古”将是常态。

转型

近年来,随着海军建设的进步,中国海军逐渐由“黄水海军”(近海)向“蓝水海军”(远海)转型。2009年3月,中国海军舰艇第一次穿越宫古海峡进入西太平洋进行远海训练。

有人可能会问,宫古岛和冲绳本岛如今都是属于日本的领土,穿越中间的海域不侵犯日本的主权吗?

答案是否定的。这是因为,宫古海峡是中国海通往西太平洋诸海峡中,最宽的海峡。其宽度约300公里(150海里),是台湾海峡的两倍。

而根据《联合国海洋法》,一个国家的领海是12海里,专属经济区再延伸200海里。在专属经济区内,沿海国对其自然资源享有主权权利,而其他国家享有“航行、飞越自由”。

因此,从宫古海峡的中间穿过的话,必然经过的是日本的专属经济区。并且,在国际海域进行远海训练是世界各国海军的通行做法,符合国际法和国际惯例。

4604aa34b94942d99686002246f7bbd1.jpeg



展开全文





声明:该文观点仅代表作者本人,搜狐号系信息发布平台,搜狐仅提供信息存储空间服务。

宫古海峡 冲绳本岛 宫古岛 联合国海洋法 辽宁舰编队




http://www.sohu.com/a/319999237_162522?spm=smpc.home.top-news2.1.1560311663227oGyoGnA





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国台办:祖国必须统一,也必然统一

2019-06-12 10:41

【环球网报道 记者 张丽媛】日前国务委员兼国防部长魏凤和在香格里拉对话会上表示,如果有人胆敢把台湾从中国分裂出去,中国军队必将不惜一战、必将不惜一切代价坚决维护祖国统一。在今天(12日)举行国台办例行新闻发布会上,有记者对此提问称,这是否意味着大陆已经做好“武统”的准备?

发言人安峰山表示,国务委员兼国防部长魏凤和上将在香格里拉对话会上的讲话明确表达了我们坚决维护祖国统一的立场。祖国必须统一,也必然统一,这是七十载两岸关系发展历程的一个历史定论,也是新时代中华民族伟大复兴的必然要求。两岸同胞是血脉相连的骨肉兄弟和命运共同体,我们愿意尽最大的努力,以最大的诚意来追求争取和平统一的前景,同时我们捍卫国家主权和领土完整的决心和意志也是坚定不移的,绝不容忍“台独”分裂势力分裂国家。我们保留采取一切必要措施的选项,针对的是外部势力的干涉和极少数“台独”分裂势力的分裂活动,绝不是针对台湾同胞。返回搜狐,查看更多



https://mil.news.sina.com.cn/china/2019-06-12/doc-ihvhiews8272485.shtml
辽宁舰编队出岛链之际 美军里根号航母在南海巡航

辽宁舰编队出岛链之际 美军里根号航母在南海巡航



19

(观察者网讯)“辽宁”号航母战斗群昨日穿越宫古海峡前出西太平洋训练,日本自卫队依照惯例,派遣舰机对我海军航母战斗群进行识别监视。
e8eb-hyeztyt0263446.jpg

日本防卫省统合幕僚监部6月10日下午发布消息,当地时间6月10日早7时,日本海上自卫队吴港第12护卫群所属的“朝雾”级驱逐舰“海雾”号(JDS Umigiri,DD-158)和舞鹤港第14护卫群所属的“朝雾”级驱逐舰“山雾”号(JDS Yamagiri,DD-152),在久米岛北西270公里的海域。发现了正在向东南方向航行的051C型驱逐舰“石家庄”号(日本称“旅州”级)和901型高速战斗支援舰“呼伦湖”号(“福峪”级)。
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除了石家庄号以外,日本海上自卫队还确认了“辽宁”号航空母舰,054A型导弹护卫舰“大庆”号,“日照”号,052D型驱逐舰“西宁”号。随后海自派出P-3C海上巡逻机,确认了中国海军编队通过的冲绳主岛和宫古岛之间的水道,前往太平洋。日本海自称,这也是日本海上自卫队首次拍摄到901型高速战斗支援舰。
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据日经中文网此前报道,2016年12月,以中国首艘航母“辽宁”为核心的舰队日本时间25日上午10点左右通过位于冲绳本岛和宫古岛之间的宫古海峡进入西太平洋。这是首次确认中国航母通过该海峡。
辽宁号目前是日本附近唯一一艘航母。驻扎在横须贺的“里根”号,几天前前往南海地区进行例行巡航。
3e29-hyeztyt0264297.jpg



https://mil.news.sina.com.cn/china/2019-06-12/doc-ihvhiews8238145.shtml


中国航母编队再出第一岛链 日本别急这会成常态

中国航母编队再出第一岛链 日本别急这会成常态



150

原标题:[解局]中国航母编队再出第一岛链!别急,会成常态的
日本NHK电视台今天报道,日本防卫省发现,中国海军航母辽宁舰在当地时间11日早晨穿过“宫古海峡”,由东海进入太平洋,随行的还有补给舰等其他军舰。
日本防卫省高度紧张,立刻出动海上自卫队的山雾号、海雾号、松雪号三艘驱逐舰跟踪监视,称这是自2016年12月以来,中国航母第二次通过该海域
“宫古海峡”在哪呢?如下图所示,它位于冲绳本岛与宫古岛之间。
cf47-hyeztys9771603.jpg

其实仔细看看上图,我们多少也能理解日方为什么有些紧张,毕竟中方再次突破了所谓的“第一岛链”。
不过岛叔想说的是,这不是什么大事,中国的舰船、战机已经很多次穿过“宫古”了,对于航母也不是第一次。
日本不必大惊小怪,以后中国航母出“宫古”将是常态。
转型
近年来,随着海军建设的进步,中国海军逐渐由“黄水海军”(近海)向“蓝水海军”(远海)转型。2009年3月,中国海军舰艇第一次穿越宫古海峡进入西太平洋进行远海训练。
有人可能会问,宫古岛和冲绳本岛如今都是属于日本的领土,穿越中间的海域不侵犯日本的主权吗?
答案是否定的。这是因为,宫古海峡是中国海通往西太平洋诸海峡中,最宽的海峡。其宽度约300公里(150海里),是台湾海峡的两倍。
而根据《联合国海洋法》,一个国家的领海是12海里,专属经济区再延伸200海里。在专属经济区内,沿海国对其自然资源享有主权权利,而其他国家享有“航行、飞越自由”。
因此,从宫古海峡的中间穿过的话,必然经过的是日本的专属经济区。并且,在国际海域进行远海训练是世界各国海军的通行做法,符合国际法和国际惯例。
2607-hyeztys9771620.jpg
日本NHK今日播放的画面
2013年9月,中国空军的2架H-6K“战神”轰炸机飞越宫古海峡。中国空军的作战飞机首次经过此海域,引起了日本的强烈反应,航空自卫队的F-15紧急起飞作为应对。
从那以后,中国海军和空军穿过宫古海峡的越来越多,编队规模也越来越大。直到2016年12月,辽宁舰编队越过海峡,引起日本强烈震动。
其实,每次中国有舰艇、战机穿过该海峡时,日本都会派出舰艇、飞机进行全程监控,拍摄照片,然后再散发给日本媒体,进行一番炒作。
日本航空自卫队每次拍摄的照片里,中国战机清晰又漂亮,比如苏30、歼20等,让中国军迷们大饱眼福,所以军迷们亲切地称他们为中国空军的“御用摄影师”。
除了跟踪、偷拍,对于中国军方的正当合法行为,日本有时还进行外交“抗议”。例如在2012年10 月16日,中国海军舰船编队通过宫古海峡时,日本政府猜测这是中国向日本发出的“挑衅”,就向中方提出了“交涉”。
对此,中国国防部发言人吴谦在2017年3月有过一个经典的回答:
日方总是喜欢炒作中国军队正当合法的训练活动,依我看这主要是心态还没有调整好,也许是以往中国军舰过宫古海峡过得少了,那么今后我们多过几次,日方习惯了,也就好了
751b-hyeztys9771762.jpg

fc20-hyeztys9771779.jpg
日本航空自卫队曾拍摄的照片
突破
上一次,关于辽宁号的消息,还是在4月份于青岛举行的海上阅舰式。当时,“辽宁”号航空母舰和“西宁”号驱逐舰同时出现,二者是构成航母编队不可或缺的核心舰种。
航母编队执行海上作战的重要任务就是夺取制海权——确保我方自由使用海洋的能力。通过阅舰式,可以看出中国航母编队已经开始成形。
航母是远洋作战平台,不可能天天在家门口晃悠,中国航母注定需要冲出“第一岛链”,走向远洋。对于中国而言,航母的作用一是解决远程投送兵力的问题,遂行远洋威慑、作战和其他任务
以前,中国由驱逐舰和护卫舰组成的远洋编队缺乏必要的后勤保障与情报支持,无海上区域制空权和必要的反潜能力,在远洋只能执行一些诸如反海盗、打击恐怖主义这样的非战争任务,难以形成有效战争能力。
而航母在远洋进行部署后,航母的各类舰载机能为海上编队提供一定的侦察预警和空中掩护,并可作为指挥平台充分整合编队其他力量。
航母的第二个作用是,对敌进行外线威慑。由于“第一岛链”距离中国大陆纵深基本都在200 海里以内,从现代战争的防御来看,这块有限海域的纵深显然不足,会限制中国军舰在海上作战的灵活自由度。
面临不利的地理环境和地缘政治条件,如果中国海军仅仅局限在“第一岛链”内的近海活动,通过在近海建立防线维护国家安全,那依然是陆军战略的继续,海军的作用和特点远远没有得到发挥。
因此,中国必须跳出陆战思维的窠臼,发挥海军的机动优势,在大洋纵深摧毁危险来源或威慑牵制对手,以求最终实现中国近海乃至沿海大陆的安全。
在中国能突破“第一岛链”封锁的几个出口中,宫古海峡凭借其宽度、深度,成为最重要的海上出口。因此日本对中国军队舰船、飞机通过宫古海峡,感到非常敏感和担忧,千方百计进行阻挠和破坏。
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dc54-hyeztys9771810.jpg

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日本防卫省今日发布的照片
任务
至于周边经常炒作的“中国航母威胁”,则多少有些违背军事常识。解决与周边国家的海洋争议问题绝非中国航母今后的主要任务
中国奉行和平解决争端的政策,而且即便中国决策者真有心使用武力或强制手段,来解决“台独”问题,或者与日本及部分东南亚国家的海洋争端,航母也非主要作战平台。
要知道,随着中国军事现代化的全面推进,中国政策选项已越来越多。当前,中国空军和海军航空兵装备的主战飞机是以歼10、歼11、苏27、苏30等组成的三代机群,以及歼20领衔的四代机群,作战半径都在1500公里左右甚至以上
现在已不是短腿的歼6与歼7领衔的时代,无论是钓鱼岛,还是南沙群岛,均在中国陆基战斗机的有效半径之内。今后随着中国四代机和五代机的大量服役,在东海及南海维持优势制空权更不在话下。
导弹方面,中国对周边国家形成压倒性优势,中国岸基巡航导弹、近中程弹道导弹可以通过对特定海域的饱和攻击吓阻对手。
另外,在水面舰艇方面,已开始大批量生产的052D型驱逐舰和055型万吨级新型驱逐舰,具有强大的海上综合作战能力,特别是其区域防空系统被誉为中国版的“宙斯盾”。中国武器库拥有如此多的选择,何须劳烦航母?
4e28-hyeztys9771849.jpg

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日本防卫省今日发布的另一组照片

其实,近海作战非航母所长,用其解决海洋争端效价比过低。航母是远洋行动的主要平台和利器,而在东海、南海这样的近海,受制于空间的限制,航母的作战效能难以得到有效发挥。相对于中国和对手庞大的陆基战斗机群,航母搭载的几十架舰载机所能发挥的作用微乎其微。
另一方面,航母在近海作战的风险却很大。航母在东海、南海这样的濒陆海区,极易遭到岸基雷达、电子侦听站和侦察机等的监视和跟踪,也容易遭到陆基战斗机、巡航导弹、潜艇等反介入力量的打击。战时它在近海不仅发挥不了多大作用,反而很容易成为“人质”。
未来,中国航母将主要承担保护海上交通线、进行海军外交、遂行地区威慑和人道主义援助与灾害救援四大任务。
发展航母是中国远洋战略的一部分,是中国走向深蓝,承担国际责任,成为世界大国的基础。
随着中国航母计划的不断完善,中国航母必然会频繁地从包括宫古海峡在内的通道进出,前往西太平洋和印度洋进行训练及部署,这是一个大国的标配,根本用不着大惊小怪
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crucial moment! The Liaoning ship appeared in the Miyako Strait, and the situation reversed instantly. The Reagan dingy left.

2019-06-12 00:01


According to the latest report of the Kyodo News Agency on June 11, the GN's Liaoning carrier battle group passed the Miyako Strait, which is the aircraft carrier of Liaoning. It has passed the first island chain for the first time since 2016. The move by the great powers of the East at such a critical moment undoubtedly unleashed a clear signal that the diplomatic rhetoric at the negotiating table ultimately came from the strength of the country. The national strength is divided into two aspects. The first is economic strength, and the second is vital military strength. Under the circumstance of trade disputes between the great powers of the East and the United States, the move of the Liaoning carrier battle group into the Pacific Ocean through the Miyako Strait is undoubtedly to tell the Americans that the Eastern Powers can not only compete with the Americans in terms of economic strength. In terms of military strength, the United States also wants to take advantage of any of us in the Western Pacific.




It is worth mentioning that the move of the Liaoning carrier battle group into the Pacific Ocean before the Miyako Strait is also the best response to the US military's frequent muscle show in the Asia-Pacific region in recent years. Not long ago, the Reagan nuclear-powered aircraft carrier of the US Navy's Seventh Fleet left its port of Yokosuka, and entered the Pacific Ocean to hold joint exercises with the Australian, Indian and Japanese navies. In addition to this, in the southern seas, the movement of the US military is also very frequent. A few days ago, in my eastern seas, there was a dangerous incident in which Russian warships almost collided with US warships at sea. If we don't stand up and show our attitude at this time, the United States will undoubtedly be more arrogant in the future, and the United States will be more arrogant in the future.




It turns out that the nature of American paper tigers has not changed since decades. The Reagan nuclear-powered aircraft carrier has been in the Miyako Strait area. Due to the lack of escort destroyer frigates, the Liaoning carrier battle group is in the palace of passage. Before the ancient Strait, the Reagan aircraft carrier had already left. According to an analysis of Russian military experts, the Reagan’s departure from the Liaoning issue is likely to be the epitome of the reversal of the situation in the Asia-Pacific region in the future. Today's PLAN is like a dumpling, and it is generally listed as a new surface warship and submarine. In the future, the US Navy may not be able to face the strong impact of PLAN.




It is worth mentioning that the goal of the Liaoning ship should be to test the combat effectiveness of the hull after upgrading. At the same time, honing the formation of the aircraft carrier and restoring the take-off and landing of the 歼15 fighter. After all, in the shipyard upgrade for half a year, there is no sea, this time the sea should be restored to generate combat power. Go back to Sohu and see more





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[Solution] The Chinese aircraft carrier formation re-launched the first island chain! Don't worry, it will be normal.

2019-06-11 22:39




The Liaoning ship battle group crossed the Miyako Strait into the Pacific Ocean for the first time in three years!


Japan’s NHK TV reported today that the Japanese Defense Ministry found that the Chinese naval carrier’s Liaoning ship passed through the “Miyako Strait” on the morning of the 11th local time, and entered the Pacific Ocean from the East Sea, along with other warships such as supply ships.


The Japanese Defense Ministry was highly nervous and immediately dispatched the three self-defense forces of the Mountain Self-Defense Forces to track and monitor the three destroyers, saying that this is the second time since December 2016 that the Chinese aircraft carrier has passed the sea area.


Where is the "Miyako Strait"? As shown below, it is located between Okinawa Island and Miyako Island.




In fact, take a closer look at the above picture, we can understand how the Japanese side is somewhat nervous, after all, the Chinese side once again broke through the so-called "first island chain."


However, what the island’s uncle wants to say is that this is not a big deal. China’s ships and fighters have crossed the “Miyako” many times, and it’s not the first time for the aircraft carrier.


Japan does not have to make a fuss, and it will be normal for Chinese aircraft carriers to go out of "Miyako".


Transformation


In recent years, with the progress of naval construction, the Chinese navy has gradually transformed from the "Yellow Water Navy" (offshore) to the "Blue Water Navy" (offshore). In March 2009, Chinese naval vessels first crossed the Miyako Strait and entered the Western Pacific for remote training.


Some people may ask, Miyako Island and Okinawa Island are now all Japanese territories. Does it cross the middle of the sea to invade Japan’s sovereignty?


the answer is negative. This is because the Miyako Strait is the widest strait in the Chinese Sea leading to the Western Pacific Strait. It is about 300 kilometers (150 nautical miles) wide and twice the size of the Taiwan Strait.


According to the United Nations Law of the Sea, a country’s territorial sea is 12 nautical miles, and the exclusive economic zone extends 200 nautical miles. In the exclusive economic zone, coastal states have sovereign rights over their natural resources, while other countries enjoy “voyage, overflight freedom”.


Therefore, if you pass through the middle of the Miyako Strait, you will inevitably pass through Japan’s exclusive economic zone. Moreover, conducting offshore training in international waters is a common practice for navies around the world, in line with international law and international practice.




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Taiwan Affairs Office: The motherland must be unified, and it must be unified

2019-06-12 10:41


[World Wide Web Report] Zhang Liyuan] State Councilor and Defense Minister Wei Fenghe said at the Shangri-La Dialogue that if someone dares to separate Taiwan from China, the Chinese army will certainly not hesitate to fight for the unification of the motherland at all costs. At the regular press conference of the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council today (12th), a reporter asked this question. Does this mean that the mainland is ready for the "Mutong system"?


Spokesperson An Fengshan said that State Councilor and Defense Minister Wei Fenghe’s speech at the Shangri-La Dialogue clearly expressed our firm stance on safeguarding the motherland’s reunification. The motherland must be unified and inevitable. This is a historical conclusion of the development of cross-strait relations in 70 years and an inevitable requirement of the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation in the new era. The compatriots on both sides of the strait are the flesh-and-blood brothers and the community of destiny. We are willing to do our utmost to pursue the prospect of peaceful reunification with the utmost sincerity. At the same time, our determination and will to defend national sovereignty and territorial integrity are also unshakable. The "Taiwan independence" separatist forces will not be tolerated to split the country. We reserve the option of taking all necessary measures, targeting the interference of external forces and the separatist activities of a very small number of "Taiwan independence" separatist forces, and are not aimed at Taiwan compatriots. Go back to Sohu and see more




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When the Liaoning naval formation team is on the island chain, the US Army Reagan aircraft carrier cruises in the South China Sea.


When the Liaoning naval formation team is on the island chain, the US Army Reagan aircraft carrier cruises in the South China Sea.



19



(Observer Network News) The "Liaoning" aircraft carrier battle group crossed the Miyako Strait before the West Pacific training. The Japanese Self-Defense Force dispatched a naval aircraft to identify and monitor the naval aircraft carrier battle group.

The Ministry of Defense, Japan, and the Ministry of Defense, the Ministry of Defense, released the news on the afternoon of June 10, at 7:00 am local time on June 10, the "Fog" class destroyer "Sea Fog" (JDS) belonging to the 12th escort group of the Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force Wugang Umigiri (DD-158) and the "Fog" class destroyer "JDS Yamagiri" (DD-152) belonging to the 14th escort group of Maizuru Port, 270 km north of Kumejima. The 051C destroyer "Shijiazhuang" (known as "Lvzhou" in Japan) and the 901-type high-speed combat support ship "Hulun Lake" ("Fuji") were found.

In addition to the Shijiazhuang, the Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force also confirmed the "Liaoning" aircraft carrier, the 054A missile frigate "Daqing", "Rizhao", and the 052D destroyer "Xining". Subsequently, the sea sent a P-3C maritime patrol aircraft to confirm the waterway between the main island of Okinawa and Miyako Island passed by the Chinese naval formation and went to the Pacific Ocean. The Sea of Japan claimed that this is the first time the Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force has captured the 901-type high-speed combat support ship.

According to previous reports by the Nikkei Chinese Network, December 2016
 

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和中俄打第三次世界大战 美国需要增加多少兵力?

2019年06月12日 07:48 新浪军事



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最近,兰德公司出台了一份新的报告《美国战略资源的不匹配》,文中以美国目前同时面临的在欧洲、朝鲜半岛、台湾和中东潜在动用军事力量为前提,对美国现有的军事力量进行了计算。
该报告称,“本报告探讨了明显的2018年国防战略的要求与实际投入的资源和现有能力的明显鸿沟,我们需要增加投入以减少在全世界同时取得成功之间存在的差距。”
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世界大战计划,也不只是美国人有嘛…… 
该报告对于美国在全世界范围内可能需要投入军力的热点主要认定为四个:
在波罗的海三国与俄罗斯的军事冲突、中国大陆采取武力统一台湾、朝鲜半岛的大规模军事冲突,以及中东恐怖分子的死灰复燃。
这四个热点同时爆发冲突——基本上就意味着一件事:第三次世界大战。所以兰德的这个报告基本就是美国对第三次世界大战的估计——回顾兰德公司近年重头国防报告的题目很有意思,《中美军事积分表》、《设想不可能的事:中美全面开战》、《美国战略资源的不匹配》……嗯……呵呵,在美国的推动之下,中俄背靠背战略伙伴关系形成之后,美国动用军事手段的成本不断攀升,从这些报告的标题里可见一斑。
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波罗的海战区北约炮兵究竟有多弱鸡……
在兰德的报告中,将美国应对“国家安全威胁”的任务分为三个优先等级,每个等级有3项主要任务。
第一等级的任务:
1、对核国家实施威慑,采取的战略是大规模反应战略,需要对美国核武库和投送系统实施现代化改进。
2、击败有限的弹道导弹攻击,应对战略是弹道导弹防御系统,需要进一步改进和增加导弹防御系统部署。
3、对恐怖攻击,尤其是大规模杀伤性恐怖袭击,进行先发制人的打击。
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到2020年,按照最“乐观”估计,朝鲜拥有20枚核弹……最“悲观”则是100发……
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看这个图“中国军队进入朝鲜的主要目的只是保护鸭绿江上的水电设施,会在朝鲜北方建立一条狭窄的安全地带……”是不是麦克阿瑟又回到了东京的感觉?
第二等级的任务:
1、在波罗的海方向威慑俄罗斯。
2、对朝鲜实施威慑避免其实施导弹和火炮攻击
3、威慑中国避免其武统台湾
第三等级任务:
1、帮助日本、菲律宾等国对抗中国扩张。
2、威慑伊朗
3、击败武装极端组织
要完成这样任务,美国目前的军费面临不足,按照目前的计划,到2027年美军的军费也不过增长到7500亿美元左右,而这被认为并不足以完成上述任务。
问题是需要多少钱——当然兰德的报告里也没有具体说要多少钱,但是他们算了一下美国军力上的缺口,虽然他们的依据其实还是挺一厢情愿的,比如把中国火箭军的导弹数量和性能是按照2015年美国国会报告中的说法,比如还在折腾朝鲜,然后中国17万大军进入朝鲜但不到三八线,只控制边境100以南100公里,顶多进到朝鲜半岛蜂腰处——就好像朝鲜战争的历史教训美国人都忘光了(好吧,或许是真的),比如还设想中国不仅要夺取钓鱼岛,甚至还打算占领日本或者菲律宾。
好吧,按照他们的设想,上述四个敌方都爆发冲突了,那其实也和打第三次世界大战无异了。
487c-hyeztys9808305.jpg
兰德的报告里首次正视远程火箭炮也可以攻击台湾大部分目标的事实……
呵呵……在这种情况下,美国的兵力到底有多少缺口,又需要做什么呢?
我们下面用连载方式来梳理一下他们的观点。
这里我们先把结论性的一些东西放在前面,以便读者形成一个概念,后面我们再来看兰德是怎么讨论出来这些东西的。
按照兰德公司的报告,为了保护波罗的海三国,准备与俄罗斯开战时,美军在这一方向可以动用的兵力目前只有一个装甲旅和6个战斗机中队,而如果要战胜俄军,美军需要的兵力包括:
8个装甲旅、3个步兵\斯特瑞克旅、3个陆战队营、20个战斗机中队、4个陆基海军战斗机中队、以及2个航母战斗群。
目前缺口(按计划未来十年内要填补)是:
7个装甲旅、一个步兵\斯特瑞克旅、两个陆战队营、14个空军战斗机中队、4个陆基海军或陆战队战斗机中队、2个航母打击大队。
此外,美军还需要提升目前已经部署到欧洲的一个装甲旅的战备状态,使其具备随时作战的能力。
在朝鲜半岛方面,兰德计算需要扩军(未来十年内完成):
5个装甲旅、13个步兵\斯特瑞克旅、6个海军陆战营、3个空军战斗机中队、12个陆基海军战斗机中队、2个航母打击大队、4个两栖攻击舰打击大队。
而目前按照美国国会军费投资水平,还有6个装甲旅,2个步兵\斯特瑞克旅经费没有着落(目前美军在韩国部署了一个装甲旅,但其战备状态被认为不行,所以这里的缺口比需要增加的装甲旅还多了一个……)
而如果要全面干涉解放军武统行动,美军的缺口(未来十年内要填补)是(包括在冲突发生时向印太地区其他盟国增兵):2个“多域步兵旅”(尚不存在的超级增强版步兵旅,有新轻坦、地对地\地对舰弹道导弹、防空系统)、5个海军陆战营、11个空军战斗机中队、4个海军陆基战斗机中队、5个航母打击大队、5个两栖攻击舰大队。
按照现有的经费计划,美军还需要提升在印太地区部署的一个装甲旅的战备状态,并增派一个航母打击大队和一个两栖攻击舰大队。
相比之下,中东地区美军的兵力将缩减为:1个装甲旅,4个步兵\斯特瑞克旅、1个陆战队营、2个战斗机中队、1个陆基海军战斗机中队——至于航母,其他战区的航母或两栖攻击舰路过的时候顺便帮忙扔个炸弹……
这篇报告某种意义上和《设想不可能》一样,有着浓厚的“我们去轰炸华沙吧”(《是,首相》梗……)的感觉,也就是给那些狗屁不懂的议员们看最极端和最不可能的情况,反正没人敢干……然后引导他们选择相对理性的选项。
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解放军现有33个旅能够实施强行登陆,一旦这些部队夺取一个滩头或者机场,随后就会有32个装甲旅和59个步兵旅可以投入作战——中国可以动用528辆反舰导弹发射车、192套远程防空系统,1908架战斗机、189架轰炸机、201艘战舰和53艘潜艇提供支援。中国每次对付一个对手可能只会动用上述部队的一小部分,但我们不得不正视其强大的总兵力
43c3-hyeztys9808338.jpg
所以,报告中关于“全面干涉台湾需要采取什么行动”,提出了下面四条:
1、如果总统决心保卫台湾,他或她需要动员全部国民警卫队和预备役部队,以向其他潜在敌方发出信号(不要低估美国的决心),并对即将开始的行动提供支持。
2、美国空军应该准备部署携带远程反舰导弹的轰炸机以帮助击退登陆船团。根据海上部署情况的变化,这些轰炸机应该前出到能够在第一时间采取反应的位置。此外,空军应当准备好大批的战斗机、加油机和侦察监视飞机,以准备攻击敌方部队。
3、美国海军应当部署4个航母打击大队进入战区,以支持该地区的美国盟友,这需要总统的命令。海军同时还应该加派4个两栖攻击舰大队进入战区,以帮助部署和支援地面部队。
4、美国陆军和\或海军陆战队应该做好准备,随时驰援该地区的美国盟友。这些旅级战斗队应该具备多域火力营(装备反舰导弹、火箭炮、短程防空系统);此外美军要全面开放指挥控制和侦察监视支援(译者注:说得好听,其实是全面接管台军),以便盟军向美军提供步兵(译者注:说得好听,不就是炮灰嘛)、工兵、航空和后勤部队的支援。
而在此之前,兰德建议,在没有如此激进的全面干涉行动的前提下,美军应该:
1、向台湾施加压力,增强其迟滞、削弱解放军的能力,以阻止解放军快速统一。台湾应增加远程反舰导弹和火箭炮兵力,同时为了保护这些火力,要大幅度增加短程防空火力。
2、部署远程反舰导弹,可以通过轰炸机、战斗机和火箭炮发射(舰射版本也需要)。
3、建立与关键盟友全程合作行动的概念,以确保他们能够对进攻军队实施迎头痛击,而美军在此过程中,可以根据政策需要和行动需要,灵活提供支援。
换句话来说,兰德的实际建议是,进行有限的干涉,这其中最具“杀手锏”效应的,是美军亲自下场打击我军登陆船团。
而如果这种程度的干涉无法取得效果,解放军仍然快速完成统一任务,那么“根据政策需要”和“行动需要”,美军将可以选择收手——如果不然,那么“我们轰炸华沙吧”。(就是上面那个丧心病狂的全面战争方案)——这其实和我们近年来对美国可能干涉统一行动的看法相似,关键是能否快速解决问题,有些网友老喜欢说要封锁台湾,不必登陆——呵呵,那就看看施洋这篇文章吧:(作者署名:席亚洲)
(未完待续,下期将对该报告中对欧洲局势的评估进行解读)
水雷封锁台湾,靠谁最好办?
前几天和朋友聊起十几年前的几次台海危机和当时解放军的应对举措,其中就免不了提到当时几乎所有对台解决方案里都会提到过的一件事情——水雷封锁。对于当时的解放军来说,水雷封锁基本属于“一次投资,长期受益”的封锁形式,相比于其他使用作战兵力进行封锁的方式,具备成本低、效果好、容易部署且能牵制敌方大量兵力等优点。
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▲ 对于水雷这东西,当年玩过“地雷战”的解放军当然不会陌生
对于水雷布设来说,常见的手段包括水面布雷、潜艇布雷和航空布雷这么几种,这其中,理论上一次性布雷量最大的毫无疑问是水面布雷。中国海军在上世纪80年代为了封锁渤海湾、阻滞苏联海军在可能的大规模入侵中在战场侧翼进行的两栖登陆,一度发展过专用的918型布雷舰,并且建造了814舰投入使用。
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▲ 当然,说起来都是布雷,但918型布雷舰主要的任务是防御型布雷
虽然从舰艇技术上,该舰更像是中国研制的自动布雷设备以及许可证生产的皮尔斯蒂克柴油机的试验舰,但即使在上世纪90年代末和21世纪初,该舰的快速布雷能力和程控机械化布雷能力在海峡两岸里还是无人出其右,虽然该舰的最大航速只有20节,但理论上其携带200枚水雷,布设雷场的速度和效果反而要比那些理论上能跑到30多节的驱逐舰要好得多,不过对台进行布雷封锁的作战环境显然不适合这么大的布雷舰,毕竟这样的舰艇在台湾周边地区的行动不可能隐蔽,而作为专业的布雷舰,该舰所执行的任务显然是路人皆知。
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▲ 后来814舰改成了海监112船,也不知道其内部巨大的水雷舱被该做什么用处
按照当时的设想,在台海附近进行水面布雷,相对比较容易做到隐蔽行动的还是使用渔船等民用船只进行伪装布雷,但渔船航速慢,布雷数量少,对于进行全面封锁所需的大规模布雷来说并不合适。
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▲ 哪怕是军用渔船布雷也很难够用
相比之下,潜艇布雷的隐蔽性相对最强,潜艇一次性能够携带的水雷数量也有几十颗(典型的033型每次可以最多携带36枚水雷),比起渔船什么的要好不少,而且因为是水下布雷,潜艇可以接近到尽可能靠近港口的位置布放水雷,其封锁效果也要比水面布雷更好。正因如此,解放军在那个时期对于潜艇布雷可以说是相当倚重的,毕竟当年连中央军委都有领导提出了要搞“以潜制海”的海军发展思想,虽然海军最后经过论证是给出了要综合发展的结论,但在那个时期,确实唯有潜艇有可能在隐蔽条件下展开对台的布雷封锁作业任务。
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▲ 潜艇水雷的长度大概是鱼雷的一半,因此其携带的水雷数量比鱼雷一般要多一倍
在2000年之后,解放军曾经不止一次派出常规潜艇突破第一岛链,并对包括基隆港在内的台湾主要港口进行模拟潜艇布雷行动,其主要的目的也在于阻止台湾通过东海岸几个港口获得外界物资。由于当时解放军的先进潜艇总体数量相对有限,需要执行更加重要的作战任务,因此这些水下布雷任务大多数都交给了老旧的033型潜艇。不得不说这样的行动让台军也感到压力巨大,因此将168舰队的8艘济阳级巡防舰部署在苏澳港,试图尽可能保障台湾东海岸的海外交通线可以继续使用。
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▲ 济阳级在90年代初就是作为增强台军反潜力量而引进的
不过对于当时的解放军潜艇来说,台军的反潜力量并没有太大的威胁。给解放军潜艇行动造成比较大麻烦的,更多是美军和日本海上自卫队装备的P-3C反潜巡逻机。由于两国的P-3C飞机数量多,巡逻密度很大,多次出现我军潜艇在水下发现被反潜机持续跟踪,不得不改变计划,展开大范围机动。这在和平时期最多也就是“与外国军机斗智斗勇”的额外训练科目,可真到了实战准备的时候,大范围的机动所耽搁的时间与被持续跟踪,轻则影响布雷任务的正常完成,重则会暴露解放军的作战企图。
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▲ 自卫队的P-3C数量很多,在中国近海的巡逻密度相当高
尽管如此,在当时的情况下,潜艇布雷已经算是解放军最可靠的大量布雷对台封锁的主要形式了。相比之下,航空布雷反应速度更快,虽然单机布设的水雷数量很少,不过在快速前出进行补充布雷或者对关键水道的封锁上,航空布雷依然是行之有效手段。当然这种布雷行动也很难保持隐蔽性,适用的场合更多还是在大规模军事行动发起后对雷区进行补充上。
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▲ 毕竟一次出动一个几十架飞机的大机群进行布雷,也不是很合适
解放军装备的轰-6系列轰炸机和“飞豹”歼击轰炸机都具备航空布雷的能力,相关的作战训练也一直在进行,考虑到台军的防空力量特别是航空兵力量在行动后会被我军全面压制,这些战机在合理规划行动路径并且得到友军战机掩护的时候,其安全性也有相当的保障,唯一的问题在于轰-6和“飞豹”作为我军当时重要的打击力量,在战斗发起后无疑是任务繁忙,如果需要补充布雷的数量较多,届时可能难以满足各类任务的需求。
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▲ 战斗一旦发起,数量有限的轰炸机要优先承担更重要的打击任务
相比解放军的布雷力量,台军的水雷战舰艇在数量和质量上一直都处于绝对的劣势,因此一旦展开大规模攻势布雷,台军本身的反水雷能力基本上是不需要太过担心的。但类似的封锁在短时间内对于台军能够产生多大的影响,一定程度上是一个值得思考的问题。
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▲ 反水雷舰艇技术要求不低,造价不低,管控不低,对于台湾也是老大难
对一个省级行政区域进行大规模的全面封锁,毫无疑问会对其各个方面产生重大的影响,尤其是对于台湾这样一个工业化程度极高的岛屿地区,由于大量的原料、燃料以及成品都要依赖运输进出,全面封锁显然会对其经济造成极为沉重的打击。但这类影响多数需要至少几个月才能显现出来,对于台军来说,在本岛存储有相当数量武器弹药的情况下,类似的封锁也不会对其装备战斗力的发挥有太多影响。
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▲ 尽管台军的实际战斗力也就那样,但指望短期封锁能够击垮台军,显然也不现实
而对于为了减少境外干涉势力影响,对台统一作战从一开始的最基本要求就是要缩短作战行动时间,力争尽快完成任务,这就和封锁这种作战形式产生了矛盾。某种程度上,这种“封锁”能够产生的最积极也是最快速的作用,便是在其甫一发生时对台湾岛内产生的巨大心里震撼和所引起的社会恐慌。从这个角度看,虽然进行封锁作战是整个战斗中必不可少的一环,但显然想靠“饿他十天半个月”来不战自胜,并非对于台海军事行动科学的看法。(胡诌施佬)



Fighting China and Russia for the Third World War How much force does the United States need to increase?
June 12, 2019 07:48 Sina Military
397

Recently, RAND Corporation issued a new report, "The Mismatch of US Strategic Resources," which is based on the premise that the United States is currently facing the potential use of military forces in Europe, the Korean Peninsula, Taiwan, and the Middle East. The power was calculated.

According to the report, “This report explores the apparent gap between the requirements of the 2018 defense strategy and the resources and existing capabilities of the actual input. We need to increase our investment to reduce the gap between success at the same time around the world.”
The World War Plan is not just for Americans... The World War Plan is not just for Americans...

The report is mainly identified as four hotspots for the United States that may need to invest in the world:

In the military conflict between the three Baltic countries and Russia, the use of force by the Chinese mainland to unify Taiwan, the large-scale military conflict on the Korean peninsula, and the resurgence of terrorists in the Middle East.

The four hotspots erupt at the same time - basically one thing: the Third World War. Therefore, Rand’s report is basically the United States’ estimate of the Third World War. It is interesting to recall the topic of the RAND’s national defense report in recent years. The Sino-US Military Points Table and the Imagination of Impossibility: China and the United States "War" and "Unmatched Strategic Resources in the United States"... um... Hehe, under the impetus of the United States, after the formation of the back-to-back strategic partnership between China and Russia, the cost of using military means in the United States continues to rise, as can be seen from the headlines of these reports. A spot.
How many weak chickens are there in the NATO artillery in the Baltic War Theater... How many weak chickens are there in the NATO artillery in the Baltic War Theater...

In Rand's report, the US task of responding to “national security threats” is divided into three priority levels, each with three main tasks.

The first level of tasks:

1. Deterrence against nuclear states, the strategy adopted is a large-scale response strategy, which requires modernization and improvement of the US nuclear arsenal and delivery system.

2. Defeat the limited ballistic missile attack. The response strategy is a ballistic missile defense system, which needs to be further improved and increased the deployment of the missile defense system.

3. Conduct a pre-emptive strike against terrorist attacks, especially mass-killing terrorist attacks.
By 2020, according to the most "optimistic" estimate, North Korea has 20 nuclear bombs... The most "pessimistic" is 100 rounds... By 2020, according to the most "optimistic" estimate, North Korea has 20 nuclear bombs... the most "pessimistic" It’s 100 rounds...
Look at this picture "The main purpose of the Chinese army to enter North Korea is to protect the hydropower facilities on the Yalu River, and to establish a narrow security zone in the north of North Korea..." Is it that MacArthur returned to Tokyo? Look at this picture "The main purpose of the Chinese army to enter North Korea is to protect the hydropower facilities on the Yalu River, and to establish a narrow security zone in the north of North Korea..." Is it that MacArthur returned to Tokyo?

The second level of tasks:

1. Defeat Russia in the direction of the Baltic Sea.

2. Deterrence against North Korea to avoid missile and artillery attacks

3. Deterrence China avoids its martial arts in Taiwan

Third level task:

1. Help Japan, the Philippines and other countries fight against China's expansion.

2. Deterrence Iran

3. Defeat armed extremist groups

To accomplish such a task, the current US military expenditure is insufficient. According to the current plan, the US military's military expenditure will not increase to about 750 billion US dollars by 2027, which is considered to be insufficient to accomplish the above tasks.

The question is how much money is needed - of course, Rand's report does not specifically say how much it costs, but they have calculated the gap in US military power, although their basis is actually quite wishful, such as the number of missiles of the Chinese Rocket Army. And performance is in accordance with the 2015 US Congress report, such as still tossing North Korea, and then China's 170,000 troops entered North Korea but less than the 38th line, only control 100 kilometers south of the border 100, at most to the Korean Peninsula waist It is like the history of the Korean War. The Americans have forgotten the light (well, maybe it is true). For example, I also envisage that China not only has to capture the Diaoyu Islands, but even intends to occupy Japan or the Philippines.

Well, according to their assumptions, the above four enemies have erupted, which is actually no different from playing the Third World War.
For the first time in Rand’s report, the fact that long-range rockets can also attack most of Taiwan’s targets... The first report in Rand’s report that the long-range rockets can also attack most of Taiwan’s targets...

Hehe... Under such circumstances, how many gaps does the US military have and what needs to be done?

We will use the serialization method to sort out their views below.

Here we first put some conclusive things in front, so that readers can form a concept. Later we will see how Rand discussed these things.

According to the report of the RAND Corporation, in order to protect the three Baltic countries and prepare to fight against Russia, the US military can only use one armor brigade and six fighter squadrons in this direction. If the Russian army is to be defeated, the troops needed by the US military include :

8 armored brigades, 3 infantry \ Stryker brigade, 3 marine battalions, 20 fighter squadrons, 4 land-based naval fighter squadrons, and 2 carrier battle groups.

The current gap (to be filled in the next ten years as planned) is:

7 armored brigades, 1 infantry \ Stryker brigade, two Marine Corps battalions, 14 Air Force fighter squadrons, 4 land-based naval or Marine squadron squadrons, and 2 aircraft carrier squadrons.

In addition, the US military also needs to upgrade the operational readiness of an armored brigade that has already been deployed to Europe, making it capable of combat at any time.

On the Korean peninsula, Rand’s calculations need to be expanded (completed in the next decade):

5 armored brigades, 13 infantry \ Stryker brigade, 6 naval battalions, 3 air squadron squadrons, 12 land-based naval fighter squadrons, 2 aircraft carrier strike squadrons, and 4 amphibious assault attack battalions.

At present, according to the US Congress's military investment level, there are 6 armored brigades, 2 infantry \ Stryker brigade funds are not settled (currently the US military deployed an armored brigade in South Korea, but its combat readiness is considered not good, so here The gap is one more than the armored brigade that needs to be increased...)

And if we want to fully interfere with the PLA's martial law, the US military's gap (to be filled in the next decade) is (including the increase of troops to other allies in the Indo-Pacific region when the conflict occurs): 2 "multi-domain infantry brigades" (not yet available) Super enhanced version of the infantry brigade, with new light, ground-to-ground \ ground-to-ship ballistic missiles, air defense systems), 5 marine battalions, 11 air force fighter squadrons, 4 naval ground-based fighter squadrons, 5 aircraft carrier strike squadrons, 5 amphibious assault ship battalions.

According to the existing funding plan, the US military also needs to upgrade the operational readiness of an armored brigade deployed in the Indo-Pacific region, and add an aircraft carrier strike brigade and an amphibious assault ship brigade.

In contrast, the strength of the US military in the Middle East will be reduced to: 1 armored brigade, 4 infantry \ Stryker brigade, 1 marine battalion, 2 fighter squadrons, 1 land-based naval fighter squadron - as for When the aircraft carrier, the aircraft carrier of other theaters or the amphibious assault ship passed by, help throw a bomb...

In the sense that this report is the same as "Imagination Impossible", there is a strong feeling that "we are going to bomb Warsaw" ("Yes, Prime Minister" Terrier...), that is, for the members who do not understand the shit In extreme and least likely situations, no one dares to do anything... and then guides them to choose relatively rational options.

The PLA has 33 brigades capable of forcibly landing. Once these units seize a beach or airport, 32 armored brigades and 59 infantry brigades can then be put into operation. China can use 528 anti-ship missile launch vehicles, 192 A set of long-range air defense systems, 1908 fighters, 189 bombers, 201 warships and 53 submarines provide support. Every time China deals with an opponent, it may only use a small part of the above-mentioned troops, but we have to face up to its strong total strength.
Therefore, in the report, "What actions need to be taken to comprehensively interfere in Taiwan?" The following four articles are proposed: Therefore, in the report, "What actions need to be taken to comprehensively interfere in Taiwan?"

1. If the President is determined to defend Taiwan, he or she needs to mobilize all National Guards and Reserve Forces to signal other potential enemies (do not underestimate the determination of the United States) and support the actions that are about to begin.

2. The US Air Force should be prepared to deploy bombers carrying long-range anti-ship missiles to help repel the landing fleet. Depending on the level of deployment at sea, these bombers should be out to a position where they can respond in the first place. In addition, the Air Force should prepare a large number of fighters, tankers, and reconnaissance surveillance aircraft in preparation for attacking enemy forces.

3. The US Navy should deploy four aircraft carriers to strike the brigade into the theater to support the US allies in the region, which requires the president's order. The Navy should also send four amphibious assault ship battalions into the theater to help deploy and support ground forces.

4. The US Army and/or the Marine Corps should be prepared to rush to the US allies in the region. These brigade-level combat teams should have multi-domain firepower battalions (equipped with anti-ship missiles, rockets, short-range air defense systems); in addition, the US military should fully open command and control and reconnaissance and surveillance support (Translator's Note: Well-satisfied, in fact, fully take over the Taiwan military ), so that the Allies can provide the US military with support for infantry, engineers, aviation and logistics forces.

Prior to this, Rand suggested that in the absence of such radical and comprehensive intervention, the US military should:

1. Put pressure on Taiwan to increase its lag and weaken the PLA's ability to prevent the rapid reunification of the PLA. Taiwan should increase the number of long-range anti-ship missiles and rocket artillery forces. At the same time, in order to protect these firepower, it is necessary to significantly increase short-range air defense firepower.

2. The deployment of long-range anti-ship missiles can be launched by bombers, fighters and rockets (the ship version is also required).

3. Establish a concept of cooperative action with key allies to ensure that they can launch a head-on attack on the offensive army, and the US military can flexibly provide support in accordance with policy needs and operational needs.

In other words, Rand's actual proposal is to carry out limited interference. The most "killer" effect is that the US military has personally attacked our army landing team.

If this level of interference fails to achieve results, the PLA will still complete the unified task quickly, then the US military will be able to choose to close the hand "in accordance with policy needs" and "action needs" - if not, then "we bombed Warsaw." (The above-mentioned comprehensive war plan of madness and madness) - This is similar to our view that the United States may interfere in the unified action in recent years. The key is whether it can solve the problem quickly. Some netizens like to say that they want to block Taiwan without landing. Then look at Shi Yang's article: (Author's signature: Xi Asia)

(To be continued, the assessment of the situation in Europe in the report will be interpreted in the next issue)

Mines block Taiwan, who is best to do?

A few days ago, I chatted with my friends about the Taiwan Strait crisis a dozen years ago and the response of the People's Liberation Army at that time. One of them would inevitably mention one thing that was mentioned in almost all the solutions to Taiwan at that time - the mine blockade. For the PLA at that time, the mine blockade was basically a form of blockade of “one investment, long-term benefit”. Compared with other methods of using combat forces to blockade, it has low cost, good effect, easy deployment and can contain a large number of enemy forces. Etc.
▲ For the mines, the People’s Liberation Army, which played the “mine warfare” in the past, is certainly not strange. ▲ For the mines, the PLA, which played the “mine war” in the past, is certainly not strange.

For mine-laying, common means include surface breeze, submarine mines and aviation mines. Among them, the theoretical one-time maximum amount of mines is undoubtedly water surface. In the 1980s, in order to block the Bohai Bay and block the amphibious landing of the Soviet Navy in the possible large-scale invasion of the flank of the battlefield, the Chinese Navy once developed a dedicated 918 type mine-laying ship and built 814 ships for use.
▲ Of course, it is all mines, but the main task of the 918 type mines is defensive mines. ▲ Of course, it’s all mine, but the main task of the 918 mine is defensive mines.

Although from the ship technology, the ship is more like the automatic mine-laying equipment developed by China and the pilot ship of the Pilstik diesel engine produced by the license, but even in the late 1990s and early 21st century, the ship’s rapid mine-laying capability and The program-controlled mechanized mine-laying capability is still unaccompanied on both sides of the strait. Although the ship's maximum speed is only 20 knots, in theory it carries 200 mines. The speed and effect of deploying minefields is actually higher than those that can theoretically run. The destroyer of more than 30 knots is much better, but the combat environment for the mine-blocking of Taiwan is obviously not suitable for such a large mine-laying ship. After all, the operation of such a ship in the surrounding areas of Taiwan cannot be concealed, and as a professional mine-breeding ship, the ship The tasks performed are clearly known to everyone.
▲ Later, the 814 ship was changed to the sea surveillance 112 ship, and it was not known what the internal huge mine compartment was used for. ▲ Later, the 814 ship was changed to the sea surveillance 112 ship, and it was not known that its huge internal mine compartment was to be used. What use?

According to the idea at the time, in the vicinity of the Taiwan Strait, surface brawling was relatively easy. It was relatively easy to use hidden vessels to use civilian vessels such as fishing boats for camouflage mines. However, the speed of fishing vessels was slow and the number of mines was small. The large-scale mines required for a comprehensive blockade were It is not appropriate to say.
▲ Even if it is a military fishing boat, it is difficult to use ▲ even if it is a military fishing boat, it is difficult to use

In contrast, the submarine mine is relatively the most concealed, and the submarine can carry dozens of mines at a time (the typical 033 can carry up to 36 mines at a time), which is much better than the fishing boat. And because it is underwater, the submarine can be placed close to the port as close as possible to the mine, and its blocking effect is better than the surface bomb. For this reason, the PLA was quite reliant on submarine mines during that period. After all, even the Central Military Commission had led the leaders to propose a naval development idea of "underlying the sea", although the navy finally gave the argument. It is necessary to comprehensively develop the conclusions, but at that time, it is indeed only possible for submarines to carry out the task of mine-blocking operations against Taiwan under concealed conditions.

▲ The submarine mine is about half the length of the torpedo, so it carries twice as many mines as the torpedo.

After 2000, the PLA sent more than one conventional submarine to break through the first island chain and carried out simulated submarine brawling operations at major ports in Taiwan including Keelung Port. Its main purpose was to prevent Taiwan from gaining access to several ports on the east coast. Foreign materials. Because of the PLA’s first
 

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https://mil.news.sina.com.cn/china/2019-06-12/doc-ihvhiews8282501.shtml

大陆是否已做好“武统”台湾准备?国台办回应

2019年06月12日 10:36 人民网



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6月12日,国务院台湾事务办公室举行新闻发布会。发言人安峰山答记者问:
新华社记者:
日前国务委员兼国防部长魏凤和在香格里拉对话会上表示,如果有人胆敢把台湾从中国分裂出去,中国军队必将不惜一战、必将不惜一切代价坚决维护祖国统一。请问这是否意味着大陆已经做好“武统”的准备?谢谢。
安峰山:
国务委员兼国防部长魏凤和上将在香格里拉对话会上的讲话明确表达了我们坚决维护祖国统一的立场。祖国必须统一,也必然统一,这是七十载两岸关系发展历程的一个历史定论,也是新时代中华民族伟大复兴的必然要求。两岸同胞是血脉相连的骨肉兄弟和命运共同体,我们愿意尽最大的努力,以最大的诚意来追求争取和平统一的前景,同时我们捍卫国家主权和领土完整的决心和意志也是坚定不移的,绝不容忍“台独”分裂势力分裂国家。我们保留采取一切必要措施的选项,针对的是外部势力的干涉和极少数“台独”分裂势力的分裂活动,绝不是针对台湾同胞。



关键字 : 安峰山大陆魏凤和



Is the mainland ready for "Mutong" Taiwan? RTHK response
June 12, 2019 10:36 People's Network
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On June 12, the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council held a press conference. Spokesperson An Fengshan answered the question:

Xinhua News Agency reporter:

Wei Fenghe, a former State Councilor and Minister of National Defense, said at the Shangri-La Dialogue that if someone dares to separate Taiwan from China, the Chinese army will certainly not hesitate to fight for the unification of the motherland at all costs. Does this mean that the mainland is ready for "Mutong"? Thank you.

Anfeng Mountain:

State Councilor and Minister of National Defense Wei Fenghe’s speech at the Shangri-La Dialogue clearly expressed our firm position to safeguard the reunification of the motherland. The motherland must be unified and inevitable. This is a historical conclusion of the development of cross-strait relations in 70 years and an inevitable requirement of the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation in the new era. The compatriots on both sides of the strait are the flesh-and-blood brothers and the community of destiny. We are willing to do our utmost to pursue the prospect of peaceful reunification with the utmost sincerity. At the same time, our determination and will to defend national sovereignty and territorial integrity are also unshakable. The "Taiwan independence" separatist forces will not be tolerated to split the country. We reserve the option of taking all necessary measures, targeting the interference of external forces and the separatist activities of a very small number of "Taiwan independence" separatist forces, and are not aimed at Taiwan compatriots.
Keywords : Weifeng Mountain, Anfeng Mountain
 

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The satellite photo of PLA naval yard dry dock: on the left is #003 carrier and on the right is type 075 amphibious assault copter-carrer.

https://mil.news.sina.com.cn/jssd/2019-06-11/doc-ihvhiews8010484.shtml

中国075两栖舰施工照疑曝光 甲板中央有巨大开口(图)

中国075两栖舰施工照疑曝光 甲板中央有巨大开口(图)



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中国一种正在建造的巨型战舰,近日又一次曝光了!
这一可能达4.5万吨的庞大舰艇,出现在西方媒体发布的最新照片之中。
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西方海军分析家最近获得了大量商业摄影卫星的照片,引发关于中国海军发展的大量讨论,从002型航空母舰的第一张照片,到中国第二代战略导弹核潜艇的又一种改型,以及强大的055型巡洋舰。
然而,最新曝光的这一艘依然在建造的4.5万吨“钢铁巨兽”,可能还没有得到其应得的关注 —— 这就是即将到来的075型两栖攻击舰(西方也称LPH,直升机着陆平台)。
照片中显示了一个巨大的舰体,虽然未完工,但明显有着超过2-3万吨的排水量,且有着非常独特的舰体开口,似乎印证了其配备的一侧大型升降机 —— 用于在甲板和机库之间运送战机。而中央部分的巨大开口,预计是安装动力装置的预留开口,未来会封闭,形成机库甲板和飞行甲板的一部分。
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未来,中国人民解放军海军将配备这一种突破40000吨的两栖攻击舰,成为中国海军4个非常有效的071型船坞登陆舰编队(西方也称LPD,码头卸货平台)之上的更高级两栖作战核心舰艇。
据称这一075级两栖攻击舰,或许有两艘或三艘在建。
这一卫星照片,似乎印证了媒体2018年春季的报道,认为这艘两栖攻击舰正在建造。除排水量极大之外,中国的第一艘两栖攻击舰的尺寸预计如下,长度250米,宽度30米,吃水8.5米,速度23节。
这一巨型战舰的战机,主要包括至少30架直升机,用于运送两栖部队与装备。大幅升级和扩大的中国海军直升机部队,可以大大增加两栖攻击的突然性。未来中国突破短距起降战斗机的难关之后,075两栖攻击舰完全可以配备类似战斗机,直接支持两栖登陆部队。
在这其中,直接与两栖登陆编队处于同一编制架构之内的短距起降战斗机,将起到极大的作用,类似于美军AV-8B和目前的F-35B战斗机的作用,可以最有效的为两栖登陆编队提供直接支援。
3693-hyeztys6039705.jpg

这一能力要远超目前的071船坞登陆舰。
此外,西方专家分析指出了这一075两栖攻击舰还可以实施另一些关键任务。这艘多功能舰艇将能够执行和平时期的多种任务。在2004年印度洋海啸之后的人道主义援助和救灾行动中,中国能够出动的战舰数量很少,相关计划因此也没有准备好,派遣部队的能力有限。在扩大国际影响的背景下,显然075两栖攻击舰将可以很好的实施这类行动。
西方专家也提到了国际反恐的作用,以及保护海外资产与人员安全的任务,无疑都是这个大型两栖平台的主要任务。
在战时,中国将可以使用它的大型两栖攻击能力,令陆军和海军陆战队可以直接而高效的攻击两栖作战目标,在占领海上控制节点方面发挥重要作用。甚至可以用于部署武装力量和装备的行动,例如在远海上直接投送陆基反舰巡航导弹部队,打击周边目标。
075两栖攻击舰非常符合充分利用远程精确武器、夺取制空权和制海权的新时代中国海军作战需求。要突破敌方地面部队的防御节点,或者打击其纵深的支撑体系,需要规模庞大、实力强大的解放军两栖部队。在075两栖攻击舰、071船坞登陆舰之前,解放军两栖部队的舰艇相当陈旧,072坦克登陆舰只能说部分满足了运送少量重装备的需求。根据分析,没有075两栖攻击舰等先进平台,两栖战斗的损失率将很高。这一问题将在075两栖攻击舰交付后,得到有效的解决。届时,中国人民解放军的现代两栖攻击将呈现“高效指挥控制、快速机动和大规模、高精度的空中支援”等特点。

当然,目前的一大难关,是中国海军还需要打造极为先进的、数量更多的直升机、倾转旋翼机、短距起降战斗机,充分发挥075两栖攻击舰的平台优势。中国并不可能依赖进口来实现这些技术突破,西方不太可能出口相关技术,俄罗斯相关技术已经落后于中国。为此,要继续发展中国两栖作战能力,必须增强海军和海军陆战队的战机水平。在获得这些先进战机后,075两栖攻击舰在一场两栖战役中的任务将是执行“两栖突击运输和综合火力支援,使攻克严密防守的两栖目标成为可能。
相信中国国防与军工部门,必将最大化075两栖攻击舰的战斗力,令其成为保家卫国的伟大事业中最为出色的武器装备成员之一!(作者署名: 空中世界加特林


https://mil.news.sina.com.cn/jssd/2019-06-12/doc-ihvhiews8259579.shtml

中国第3艘航母照片疑曝光:多个模块已拼合成形(图)

中国第3艘航母照片疑曝光:多个模块已拼合成形(图)



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中国自行设计的第1艘航母最新照片,曝光在网上!照片清晰显示,这一航空母舰打造工作进展顺利!它将配备中国设计的电磁弹射器!
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可以看到,照片中的航空母舰已经完成若干主要模块拼合,舰体主体部分的大致外形已经形成。
这一被传为中国第1种使用弹射起飞技术的航母,可以运用具备全面作战用途和飞行能力的舰载预警机、运输机、战斗机,并兼顾高低空和高低速的各种作战需求。
运用弹射器,令其可以使用重量大的预警机、运输机。
f838-hyeztys6643143.jpg

因为中国未来的航空母舰战斗群,必须远离本土作战,无法获得岸基飞机的有力支援,航空母舰舰载预警机、战斗机必然要独立作战,尽量多携带燃油保持较长的执勤时间,弹射器的运用使得它们上舰操作成为可能。此外,由于岸基飞机难以持续保护航母,而敌方战舰、地面目标的防空与电子自卫能力必然强大,要求航空母舰舰载预警机、战斗机携带更多更好的武器、具有先进的电子设备,这也对弹射器的发射重量有了新要求。美国及中国等多个国家,正在研制的最新一代航母电磁弹射器。最早的成功案例,是2010年底由美国通用原子公司测试成功的第一套电磁弹射器,目前安装在测试中的福特级核动力航母上。
f569-hyeztys5920092.jpg

电磁弹射器依靠一套线性马达,利用电流在线圈产生的磁场,推动滑块牵引飞机高速前进,整个系统长约9米,能够产生45,000公斤推力,最高能将飞机加速到130节。每45秒能够完成一次充电,令弹射间隔最低为45秒,比传统的蒸汽弹射器要快。
电磁弹射器有一套独立的控制系统,精确地控制弹射速度,能让加速度更稳定,使得弹射系统对航母造成的损伤也更小,可靠性更高。相对于传统的弹射器,电磁弹射器的重量更轻,约为20吨左右,需要空间更小,人力需要也更低。
a22f-hyeztys6643240.jpg

传统的蒸汽弹射器要消耗614公斤蒸汽进行一次弹射,效率低得只有6%,对于常规动力航母来说非常耗油,续航能力下降。电磁弹射器不消耗蒸汽,在航母上的安装也简易一些。电磁弹射器的能量利用率高出5%。

电磁弹射器最大的优点,仍然是加速度可以精确控制。针对重型的预警机,可以增大加速能力。此外,最大弹射功率能够达到122兆焦耳,而蒸汽弹射器为95兆焦耳。
电磁弹射器的三大难关——线性同步马达、盘式交流发电机和大功率数字循环变频器,据信已经被中国军工人员攻克。线性同步马达是重中之重,20世纪80年代美国开始研究电磁炮,对此有一定帮助。中国的磁浮列车也是一个技术来源。
最新的这一航母的建造工作不断推进,确实是令人振奋的一大好消息!(作者署名:空中世界加特林)


China 075 amphibious ship construction suspected exposure There is a huge opening in the center of the deck (Figure)


China 075 amphibious ship construction suspected exposure There is a huge opening in the center of the deck (Figure)



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A giant warship under construction in China has recently been exposed again!

This huge ship, which may reach 45,000 tons, appears in the latest photos released by Western media.

Western naval analysts have recently obtained photos of a large number of commercial photography satellites, sparking a lot of discussion about the development of the Chinese navy, from the first photo of the 002 aircraft carrier to another variant of China's second-generation strategic missile nuclear submarine, and powerful. Model 055 cruiser.

However, the newly exposed 45,000-ton "steel behemoth" still under construction may not have received the attention it deserves - this is the upcoming 075 amphibious assault ship (also known as LPH, helicopter landing in the West) platform).

The photo shows a huge hull, which, although unfinished, has a displacement of more than 20,000-30,000 tons and has a very unique hull opening that seems to confirm its large side lifts – for Transport the aircraft between the deck and the hangar. The large opening in the central section is expected to be a reserved opening for the installation of the powerplant and will be closed in the future to form part of the hangar deck and flight deck.

In the future, the Chinese People's Liberation Army Navy will be equipped with this amphibious assault ship that broke through 40,000 tons and become a more advanced amphibious operation on the Chinese Navy's four very effective 071 type dock landing ship formations (also known as LPD, dock unloading platform in the West). Core ship.

It is said that this 075-class amphibious assault ship may have two or three ships under construction.

This satellite photo seems to confirm the media's coverage in the spring of 2018, and believes that this amphibious assault ship is under construction. In addition to the huge displacement, China's first amphibious assault ship is expected to be the following size, 250 meters in length, 30 meters in width, 8.5 meters in draught, and 23 knots.

The fighters of this giant warship mainly include at least 30 helicopters for transporting amphibious troops and equipment. The massively upgraded and expanded Chinese naval helicopter force can greatly increase the abruptness of amphibious assault. After China breaks through the difficulties of short-range take-off and landing fighters in the future, the 075 amphibious assault ship can be equipped with similar fighters to directly support the amphibious landing forces.

Among them, the short-range take-off and landing fighters directly in the same structure as the amphibious landing formation will play a great role, similar to the role of the US AV-8B and the current F-35B fighters, which can be most effective. Provide direct support for amphibious landing formations.

This ability is far beyond the current 071 dock landing ship.

In addition, Western expert analysis pointed out that this 075 amphibious assault ship can also carry out other key tasks. This multi-purpose ship will be able to perform a variety of missions in peacetime. In the humanitarian aid and disaster relief operations following the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, the number of warships that China was able to dispatch was small, and the related plans were therefore not ready, and the ability to dispatch troops was limited. In the context of expanding international influence, it is clear that the 075 amphibious assault ship will be able to carry out such actions well.

Western experts also mentioned the role of international counter-terrorism and the task of protecting overseas assets and personnel safety, which is undoubtedly the main task of this large-scale amphibious platform.

In wartime, China will be able to use its large-scale amphibious assault capability, allowing the Army and the Marine Corps to directly and efficiently attack amphibious operations and play an important role in occupying maritime control nodes. It can even be used to deploy armed forces and equipment, such as direct landing of land-based anti-ship cruise missile units in the open sea to combat surrounding targets.

The 075 amphibious assault ship is in line with the needs of the Chinese navy in the new era of making full use of long-range precision weapons, seizing air superiority and sea power. To break through the defensive nodes of enemy ground forces, or to combat its deep support system, it is necessary to have a large and powerful amphibious army of the People's Liberation Army. Before the 075 amphibious assault ship and the 071 ship landing ship, the amphibious units of the People's Liberation Army were quite old. The 072 tank landing ship can only say that it partially satisfies the need to transport a small amount of heavy equipment. According to the analysis, without the advanced platform such as the 075 amphibious assault ship, the loss rate of the amphibious battle will be high. This problem will be effectively resolved after the delivery of the 075 amphibious assault ship. By then, the modern amphibious assault of the Chinese People's Liberation Army will be characterized by "efficient command and control, rapid maneuvering and large-scale, high-precision air support."

Of course, the current major difficulty is that the Chinese Navy also needs to build a very advanced, more numerous helicopters, tilt-rotor aircraft, short-range take-off and landing fighters, and give full play to the platform advantage of the 075 amphibious assault ship. China is not likely to rely on imports to achieve these technological breakthroughs. The West is unlikely to export related technologies, and Russian related technologies have lagged behind China. To this end, in order to continue to develop China's amphibious combat capability, it is necessary to enhance the level of warfare of the Navy and the Marine Corps. After acquiring these advanced fighters, the 075 amphibious assault ship's mission in an amphibious campaign will be to perform "amphibious assault transportation and comprehensive fire support, making it possible to overcome the amphibious targets of strict defense.

It is believed that China's defense and military departments will maximize the combat effectiveness of the 075 amphibious assault ship, making it one of the most outstanding weapons and equipment members in the great cause of defending the country! (Author's Attribution: Air World Gatlin



Https://mil.news.sina.com.cn/jssd/2019-06-12/doc-ihvhiews8259579.shtml


China's third aircraft carrier photo suspected exposure: multiple modules have been combined to form (Figure)


China's third aircraft carrier photo suspected exposure: multiple modules have been combined to form (Figure)



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The latest photo of the first aircraft carrier designed by China itself, exposed online! The photo clearly shows that the aircraft carrier construction work is going well! It will be equipped with an electromagnetic catapult designed in China!

It can be seen that the aircraft carrier in the photo has completed the assembly of several main modules, and the general shape of the main part of the hull has been formed.

This is the first aircraft carrier in China to use the catapult take-off technology. It can use ship-borne early warning aircraft, transport aircraft and fighter aircraft with comprehensive combat and flight capabilities, and take into account the various operational requirements of high and low altitude and high and low speed.

The use of catapults allows them to use heavy-duty early warning aircraft and transport aircraft.

Because China's future aircraft carrier battle group must be away from the local battle, unable to obtain strong support from shore-based aircraft, aircraft carrier shipborne early warning aircraft, fighters must be independent operations, as much as possible to carry fuel to maintain a longer duty time, the use of catapults makes them The ship's operation is possible. In addition, because shore-based aircraft are difficult to continuously protect aircraft carriers, enemy airships and ground targets are inevitably strong in air defense and electronic self-defense capabilities. Aircraft carrier-borne early warning aircraft and fighter aircraft are required to carry more and better weapons and advanced electronic equipment. There are new requirements for the launch weight of the catapult. The latest generation of aircraft carrier electromagnetic catapults being developed by the United States and China. The earliest success story was the first set of electromagnetic catapults successfully tested by General Atomics at the end of 2010. It is currently installed on the Ford-class nuclear-powered aircraft carrier under test.

The electromagnetic catapult relies on a linear motor that uses the magnetic field generated by the current in the coil to push the slider to pull the aircraft at high speed. The whole system is about 9 meters long and can generate 45,000 kilograms of thrust, which can accelerate the aircraft to 130 knots. A charge can be completed every 45 seconds, with a minimum ejection interval of 45 seconds, which is faster than a conventional steam catapult.

The electromagnetic catapult has an independent control system that precisely controls the ejection speed, which makes the acceleration more stable, and causes the ejection system to cause less damage to the aircraft carrier and higher reliability. Compared to conventional catapults, the electromagnetic catapult is lighter in weight, about 20 tons, requiring less space and lower manpower requirements.

The traditional steam catapult consumes 614 kilograms of steam for one shot, and the efficiency is only 6%. It is very fuel-efficient for the conventional power carrier and its endurance is reduced. The electromagnetic catapult does not consume steam, and the installation on the aircraft carrier is also simpler. The electromagnetic ejector's energy efficiency is 5% higher.

The biggest advantage of the electromagnetic catapult is that the acceleration can be precisely controlled. For heavy-duty early warning aircraft, the acceleration capability can be increased. In addition, the maximum ejection power can reach 122 megajoules, while the steam catapult is 95 megajoules.

The three major difficulties of electromagnetic catapults – linear synchronous motors, disk alternators and high-power digital cycle inverters – are believed to have been overcome by Chinese military personnel. Linear synchronous motors are a top priority. In the 1980s, the United States began researching electromagnetic guns, which helped. China's maglev train is also a technology source.

The latest construction work of this aircraft carrier is constantly advancing, and it is indeed an exciting news! (Author's signature: Air World Gatlin)
 

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JL-3 is better than Trident by 2 extra warhead, (10 vs 8) and Chinese warhead more advanced than USA, being HyperSonic. From within their own naval base JL-3 can deliver 10 nuke into Whole USA, no need to travel out of base to hit.

https://mil.news.sina.com.cn/china/2019-06-12/doc-ihvhiqay5055747.shtml

巨浪-3是个什么快递?可携10枚核弹头射程12000公里

巨浪-3是个什么快递?可携10枚核弹头射程12000公里



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原标题:巨浪-3是个什么快递?可携带10枚分导核弹头,最远射程12000公里
来源:中国新闻周刊
它是中国海军弥补差距短板
强化二次核打击能力和加强海基核威慑的关键部分
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6月2日凌晨出现“发光不明飞行物”
6月2日凌晨,山东、山西、河南、河北等多地网友均发现,天空中出现“发光不明飞行物”,“一颗如彗星般的明亮物体,拖着长长的尾巴在空中疾飞而过”。
就在外界对这种神秘天象猜测纷纷时,中国人民解放军火箭军官方账号@东风快递于6月3日夜间发布一张“东风-21”弹道导弹夜间起竖的照片,并配以文案:“你们相信这世上有UFO吗?晚安,小‘火’伴~”。
随后,中国海军官方账号@人民海军 也发布了一张导弹从海上发射的图片,并@东风快递 称:“#海语海言# 你也相信UFO吗?@东风快递 晚安,小海粉。”
这一轮俏皮的“官方发声”下来,一次导弹发射而非UFO的事实已经确定。接下来的问题是,发射的究竟是什么型号的导弹?
真的是巨浪-3?
英国简氏防务网站明确指出,中国出现的所谓“UFO”,其实是解放军新一代潜射弹道导弹“巨浪-3”试射时划过天空的景象。
也有国内媒体分析认为,这个发光物的移动没有传统导弹那么快,而且呈现出高空机动的姿态,这与中国此前试验的高超音速武器十分相像。由此可以判断:是从渤海湾水下核潜艇如094B或者096上进行了新型潜射战略导弹的试验,并且试验的是搭载高超音速武器弹头的新型巨浪-2B或者是巨浪-3导弹。
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中国人民解放军火箭军发布的“东风-21”弹道导弹图片
除了神秘天象和军方官微的俏皮发声,上述判断的另一个事实依据是此前辽宁海事局曾发布的禁航通告。该通告称,“在渤海及渤海海峡,6月2日0230时至1200时, 在
1。 38°48′00″N 120°11′42″E
2。 38°48′00″N 121°01′54″E
3。 38°14′48″N 121°17′36″E
4。 38°14′48″N 120°27′12″E
等诸点连线范围内执行军事任务,禁止驶入”。
通常对于这类导弹试验,中国官方很少正面予以回应。从目前有限的公开信息来看,对于究竟是从海上还是从陆上发射,尚不足以得出结论。如果是从海上发射的,则很可能是巨浪-3的发射;至于飞行高度和弹道轨迹,如果是高超音速的或搭载非正常载荷的导弹发射,则很容易解释。
2018年11月24日,巨浪-3曾进行了首次发射,但没有出现像这次一样的天象。外界当时推测,第一次飞行测试的目的在于验证系统从潜艇发射管的冷发射,可能并未做全射程的试验。无论此次是否是如外界多数所猜测的巨浪-3的发射试验,这款新型潜射战略导弹已经成为热门防务话题。
中国官方并没有公布有关巨浪-3的具体信息。据分析,这枚导弹可携带10枚左右的分导核弹头,最远射程达12000公里,足以从中国海岸威慑美国大部分地区的目标。此外,巨浪-3是北京东风-41 (DF-41)弹道导弹的改进型,新式巨浪-3型导弹的命中精度已经和美制“三叉戟D5”型潜射战略导弹不相上下。
海基核威慑的全球格局
在海、陆、空基三位一体核威慑之中,海基战略核力量由于其超强的隐蔽性和机动性,是二次核打击的支柱,也具有最强的核威慑效果。
从全球范围来看,在综合复杂的现代侦察预警手段和强大防空力量的作用下,陆基和空基投射系统的脆弱性大幅上升,海基核武器逐渐成为维系二次核打击的最有效路径。即便是 “三位一体”最为均衡的美国,海基核力量的重要性也要大大高于陆基和空基核武器。
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中国海军某新型战略核潜艇。摄影/胡锴冰
按照美国2018年的核态势评估报告,美国当前的海基核威慑主要由“俄亥俄”级战略核潜艇担纲。“俄亥俄”级战略核潜艇一共有18艘在役,其中14艘搭载“三叉戟”弹道导弹,4艘经改装后搭载常规巡航导弹成为攻击型核潜艇。其水下排水量1.8万吨,水下航速超过20节,潜深240米,装备了4具533毫米鱼雷管以及24具“三叉戟”2型弹道导弹垂直发射筒,每枚“三叉戟”导弹可携带8枚分导核弹头,总数达192枚。虽然美军同时装备了400枚左右的民兵-3型陆基洲际导弹,但由于它是单一弹头,威慑效果显然不如海基核力量。
美国海军从21世纪初开始就着手研究战略核潜艇的换代项目(ORP),也被称为“SSBN-(X)”项目,旨在为美国海军研制12艘新型弹道导弹核潜艇,即“哥伦比亚级”战略核潜艇,以取代现役的14艘“俄亥俄”级战略核潜艇。
计划于2031年服役并开始作战值班的“哥伦比亚”级核潜艇反应堆终身不需要换料,较“俄亥俄”级的动力也更为充沛,还可以灵活搭载弹道导弹、巡航导弹、高超音速武器和UUV等模块。
俄罗斯的海基核打击力量,则主要依靠9艘“德尔塔”级Ⅲ/Ⅳ型战略核潜艇支撑。该级艇水下排水量1.8万吨,水下航速24节,装备16具弹道导弹垂直发射管和4具533毫米鱼雷发射管。此外,俄罗斯于1996年启动“北风之神”新一代战略核潜艇的研制,2013年,首艇服役,目前已服役了至少4艘,还有4艘在建造之中。曾经于上世纪80年代末显赫一时的“台风”级核潜艇,则已几乎全部退役。
英法这两个欧洲大国在核力量的建设上称得上是孤注一掷,完全依赖海基战略核武器。冷战结束后,受经济等因素影响,两国逐渐削减了核武库的规模。目前,英国已放弃了陆基、空基核打击能力,仅保留了海基核打击能力。法国也拆除了陆基核武器,勉强维持了海基和空基“二位一体”的核打击能力。
美俄英法这四个核国家都十分重视战略核潜艇的战备值班,即保证任何时间都有战略核潜艇带弹在大洋深处活动且能随时执行核打击任务。美军要求在任何一个时间,都有至少4艘战略核潜艇游弋在大洋深处,接到打击命令后,要能立即将装载的核导弹射向预定的目标。英法在数量上无法与美俄相比,但也努力维持着至少一艘战略核潜艇时刻保持着战备状态。
战略核潜艇的动向属于高度机密,即便是盟国之间也几乎不分享数据,核潜艇在任务期间也极少收发信息。2009年2月,英国“前卫”号弹道导弹核潜艇与法国的“凯旋”号核潜艇在大西洋发生相撞,当时两艘潜艇均在水下航行,各自执行着任务,完全不知对方的存在。
中国海基核力量发展之路
中国海基核力量起步较早,但相较于美俄英法四国,则长期处于落后追赶状态,在核潜艇性能和潜射洲际导弹方面都有不小的差距。
1970年,中国开工建造092型弹道导弹核潜艇,但因为“文革”和经费紧张等原因,该艇直至1983年才服役,且长期处于“有艇无弹”的窘境。1991年服役定型的巨浪-1,虽然解决了中国潜射战略导弹的有无问题,但是性能不佳,特别是射程太近。其标准射程仅有1800公里,改进型巨浪-1A的射程也不过2300公里。092型和巨浪-1的组合仅仅是解决了从无到有的问题,其战术与技术指标相对较低,比如潜艇的噪声较大、自动化程度偏低、潜射导弹射程较近,并不具备战略威慑能力。
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中国海军第一支核潜艇部队——海军北海舰队某潜艇基地的核潜艇官兵。图/中新
094型核潜艇和巨浪-2型是中国海基核力量的第二代。094型核潜艇约于1980年代末1990年代初立项,首艇于1999年开始建造,2002年至2003年间下水,2004年7月完工。巨浪-2导弹计划的进展则过于缓慢,自1975年开始验证,1986年开始预研,1990年开始正式研制,1999年正式立项,2011年7月才完成定型。和092一样,094型核潜艇也有一段时间处于“有艇无弹”的情形。

据分析,可携带12枚巨浪-2型潜射弹道导弹的解放军094型战略核潜艇可能于2014年首次进行战备巡逻。按照美国2019年发布的中国军力报告,中国共建造了6艘晋级(094)弹道导弹核潜艇,其中4艘在役,两艘在葫芦岛码头舾装。晋级弹道导弹核潜艇搭载巨浪-2型导弹,构成了中国首次可信的海基核威慑。
不过,094型弹道导弹核潜艇与世界同类平台还有很大差距,综合性能不仅不如美俄新一代,也比不上法国“凯旋”级战略核潜艇和英国“前卫”级战略核潜艇。巨浪-2导弹即使是单弹头的饱和射程也只达到8000公里。
巨浪-3项目的快速推进,让人们看到了中国迅速加强海基核威慑的可能性。据推测,中国096型核潜艇将于2020年前后服役,此次中国的艇弹进度较为协调,有望快速形成战斗力,进入战备值班。
在中国加快建设海洋强国和一流军队的背景下,中国海军弥补差距短板、强化二次核打击能力和加强海基核威慑,完全是题中应有之义。而巨浪-3项目,正是这一进程中的关键部分。
(作者胡波系北京大学海洋战略研究中心主任)



关键字 : 战略导弹核潜艇潜射导弹巨浪


What is the courier-3? 10 nuclear warheads can be carried with a range of 12,000 kilometers
What is the courier-3? 10 nuclear warheads can be carried with a range of 12,000 kilometers
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Original title: What is the express wave of Julang-3? It can carry 10 sub-guided nuclear warheads with a maximum range of 12,000 kilometers.

Source: China News Weekly

It is the shortcoming of the Chinese navy to make up the gap

Strengthening the ability of secondary nuclear strikes and strengthening key parts of sea-based nuclear deterrence
"Luminous UFO" appeared in the early morning of June 2, "Glowing UFO" appeared in the early morning of June 2

In the early morning of June 2, netizens from Shandong, Shanxi, Henan, Hebei and other places found that “light-emitting UFOs” appeared in the sky. “A bright object like a comet dragged a long tail and flew in the air. And over."

Just as the outside world speculated on this mysterious sky, the official account of the Chinese People's Liberation Army Rocket Army @东风快递 released a photo of the "Dongfeng-21" ballistic missile at night on the night of June 3, accompanied by a copy: " Do you believe that there are UFOs in this world? Good night, small 'fire' with you~".

Subsequently, the official account of the Chinese Navy @民海军 also released a picture of the missile launched from the sea, and @东风快递 said: "#海语海言# Do you also believe in UFO? @东风快递 Good night, small sea powder."

This round of playful "official voice", the fact that a missile launch instead of a UFO has been confirmed. The next question is, what type of missile is launched?

Really a huge wave -3?

The British Jane's Defense website clearly pointed out that the so-called "UFO" in China is actually a scene of the PLA's new generation of submarine-launched ballistic missile "Julang-3".

There are also domestic media analysts who believe that the movement of this illuminant is not as fast as that of a conventional missile, and it presents a high-altitude maneuvering posture, which is very similar to the hypersonic weapon that China has tested before. From this, it can be judged that a new type of submarine-launched strategic missile was tested from the Bohai Bay submarine nuclear submarine such as 094B or 096, and the new type of giant wave-2B or the giant wave-3 missile equipped with a hypersonic weapon warhead was tested.
Picture of the "Dongfeng-21" ballistic missile released by the Chinese People's Liberation Army Rocket Army Picture of the "Dongfeng-21" ballistic missile released by the Chinese People's Liberation Army Rocket Army

In addition to the mysterious horoscope and the secretive voice of the military official, another factual basis for the above judgment is the previous ban on navigation issued by the Liaoning Maritime Safety Administration. The notice stated that "in the Bohai Sea and the Bohai Strait, on June 2, from 0230 to 1200 hours,

1. 38°48′00′′N 120°11′42′′E

2. 38°48′00′′N 121°01′54′′E

3. 38°14′48′′N 121°17′36′′E

4. 38°14′48′′N 120°27′12′′E

Waiting for the military missions within the line of the connection, it is forbidden to enter."

Chinese officials rarely respond positively to such missile tests. Judging from the current limited public information, it is not enough to draw conclusions as to whether it is launched from the sea or from the land. If it is launched from the sea, it is likely to be the launch of Julang-3; as for the flight altitude and ballistic trajectory, it is easy to explain if it is a hypersonic or missile launch with an abnormal load.

On November 24, 2018, Julang-3 had its first launch, but there was no such thing as this one. It was speculated at the time that the purpose of the first flight test was to verify the cold launch of the system from the submarine launch tube and may not have been tested for full range. Whether this is a launch test of JuLang-3, which is mostly guessed by the outside world, this new submarine-launched strategic missile has become a hot topic of defense.

Chinese officials have not released specific information about Julang-3. According to analysis, the missile can carry about 10 sub-guided nuclear warheads, with a maximum range of 12,000 kilometers, enough to deter the target from most parts of the United States from the Chinese coast. In addition, Julang-3 is an improved version of the Beijing Dongfeng-41 (DF-41) ballistic missile. The hit accuracy of the new Julang-3 missile is comparable to that of the US-made Trident D5.

The global pattern of sea-based nuclear deterrence

Among the trinity nuclear deterrents of the sea, land and air base, the sea-based strategic nuclear force is the pillar of the secondary nuclear strike and has the strongest nuclear deterrent effect because of its superior concealment and mobility.

From a global perspective, under the influence of comprehensive and sophisticated modern reconnaissance and early warning means and powerful air defense forces, the vulnerability of land-based and space-based projection systems has risen sharply, and sea-based nuclear weapons have gradually become the most effective way to maintain secondary nuclear strikes. Even in the United States, where the "trinity" is most balanced, the strength of sea-based nuclear forces is much higher than that of land-based and space-based nuclear weapons.
A new strategic nuclear submarine of the Chinese Navy. Photography / Hu Yubing A new type of strategic nuclear submarine in the Chinese Navy. Photography / Hu Yubing

According to the US 2018 Nuclear Situation Assessment Report, the current US-based sea-based nuclear deterrent is mainly carried out by the "Ohio"-class strategic nuclear submarine. A total of 18 "Ohio" strategic nuclear submarines are in service, 14 of which are equipped with "Trident" ballistic missiles, and 4 modified to carry conventional cruise missiles into attack-type nuclear submarines. It has an underwater displacement of 18,000 tons, a submarine speed of more than 20 knots and a depth of 240 meters. It is equipped with four 533mm torpedo tubes and 24 "Trident" Type 2 ballistic missile vertical launchers, each of which is a Trident missile. It can carry 8 sub-guided nuclear warheads, totaling 192 pieces. Although the US military is equipped with about 400 militia-3 land-based intercontinental missiles at the same time, because it is a single warhead, the deterrent effect is obviously not as good as the sea-based nuclear power.

The US Navy has been working on the strategic nuclear submarine replacement project (ORP) since the beginning of the 21st century. It is also known as the "SSBN-(X)" project, which aims to develop 12 new ballistic missile submarines for the US Navy, namely "Columbia". Strategic nuclear submarines to replace the 14 "Ohio" strategic nuclear submarines currently in service.

The "Columbia"-class nuclear submarine reactor, which is scheduled to enter service in 2031 and begin to operate on duty, does not need refueling for life. It is more powerful than the "Ohio" class. It can also be equipped with ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, hypersonic weapons and UUV. Module.

Russia’s sea-based nuclear strike force is mainly supported by nine “Delta” Class III/IV strategic nuclear submarines. The class has an underwater displacement of 18,000 tons, a submarine speed of 24 knots, and is equipped with 16 ballistic missile vertical launch tubes and four 533 mm torpedo tubes. In addition, Russia launched the development of a new generation of strategic nuclear submarines in the "God of the North Wind" in 1996. In 2013, the first boat was in service, and at least four ships have been in service, and four more are under construction. The "Typhoon" class nuclear submarines that were once prominent in the late 1980s have almost all retired.

The two European powers, Britain and France, are said to be desperate in the construction of nuclear power and rely entirely on Sea-based strategic nuclear weapons. After the end of the Cold War, the two countries gradually reduced the size of their nuclear arsenals due to economic factors. At present, the United Kingdom has abandoned the ground-based and air-based nuclear strike capability and has only retained the sea-based nuclear strike capability. France has also dismantled land-based nuclear weapons and barely maintained the nuclear-strike capability of the "two in one" of sea-based and space-based.

The four nuclear powers of the United States, Russia, Britain and France attach great importance to the strategic readiness of strategic nuclear submarines, that is, to ensure that strategic nuclear submarines are carried out in the depths of the ocean at any time and can perform nuclear strikes at any time. At any time, the US military has required at least four strategic nuclear submarines to swim in the depths of the ocean. After receiving the command, they must be able to immediately launch the loaded nuclear missiles to the intended targets. Britain and France are not comparable in number to the United States and Russia, but they are also trying to maintain at least one strategic nuclear submarine at all times.

The movement of strategic nuclear submarines is highly confidential, and even among the allies, data is hardly shared, and nuclear submarines rarely receive and send information during missions. In February 2009, the British "Avantgarde" ballistic missile submarine collided with the French "Triumphal" nuclear submarine in the Atlantic Ocean. At that time, the two submarines were sailing underwater, each carrying out their missions, completely ignorant of each other's existence.

China's sea-based nuclear power development road

China's sea-based nuclear forces started earlier, but compared with the United States, Russia, Britain and France, they have long been in a backward chasing state, and there is no small gap in the performance of nuclear submarines and submarine-launched intercontinental missiles.

In 1970, China started construction of the Type 092 ballistic missile submarine. However, due to the "Cultural Revolution" and financial constraints, the boat did not serve until 1983, and it was in the dilemma of "having no boats and no bombs" for a long time. The Julang-1, which was in service in 1991, solved the problem of China's submarine-launched strategic missiles, but its performance was poor, especially the range was too close. Its standard range is only 1,800 kilometers, and the range of the improved Julang-1A is only 2,300 kilometers. The combination of Type 092 and Julang-1 only solves the problem from scratch, and its tactics and technical indicators are relatively low. For example, the noise of the submarine is relatively large, the degree of automation is low, and the range of the submarine-launched missile is relatively close. Strategic deterrence.
The first submarine force of the Chinese Navy - a nuclear submarine officer at a submarine base of the Navy's North Sea Fleet. Figure / The first nuclear submarine force of the New China Navy - a nuclear submarine officer of a submarine base of the Navy North Sea Fleet. Figure / Zhongxin

The Type 094 nuclear submarine and the Julang-2 are the second generation of China's sea-based nuclear forces. The Type 094 nuclear submarine was established in the late 1980s and early 1990s. The first boat was built in 1999, launched between 2002 and 2003, and completed in July 2004. The progress of the Julang-2 missile program is too slow. It has been verified since 1975. It was pre-researched in 1986. It was officially developed in 1990. It was officially established in 1999 and was finalized in July 2011. Like the 092, the Type 094 nuclear submarine has been in a situation where there is a "no boat".

According to analysis, the PLA Type 094 strategic nuclear submarine, which can carry 12 JuLang-2 submarine-launched ballistic missiles, may conduct combat readiness patrols for the first time in 2014. According to the US military report released by the United States in 2019, China has built six advanced (094) ballistic missile submarines, of which four are in service and two are on the Huludao terminal. The upgraded ballistic missile submarine is equipped with the Julang-2 missile, which constitutes China’s first credible sea-based nuclear deterrent.

However, the 094 ballistic missile submarine is still far from the same platform in the world. The comprehensive performance is not only inferior to the new generation of the United States and Russia, but also inferior to the French "Triumphal" class strategic nuclear submarine and the British "avant-garde" strategic nuclear submarine. The Julang-2 missile has a saturation range of only 8,000 kilometers even for a single warhead.

The rapid advancement of the Julang-3 project has enabled people to see the possibility of China's rapid strengthening of sea-based nuclear deterrence. It is speculated that China's Type 096 nuclear submarine will be in service around 2020. The progress of China's boat bombs is relatively coordinated, and it is expected to quickly form combat effectiveness and enter combat readiness.

In the context of China's speeding up of building a maritime power and a first-class army, the Chinese navy has made up for the short-term gap, strengthened the ability of the second nuclear strike, and strengthened the nuclear-based nuclear deterrent. The Julang-3 project is a key part of this process.

(Author Hu Bo is the director of the Ocean Strategy Research Center of Peking University)
Keywords : strategic missile nuclear submarine submarine-launched missile waves
 
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