Kyriel
Junior Member
Join Date: Apr 2020
Posts: 19
| Coronavirus - Time to reopen the economy. The data doesn't lie!
For those who have been looking closely at the data, it is startling to see country after country implementing lockdown measures. History will likely record this as the one of mankind’s biggest folly.
New York is one of the worst hit areas by Covid-19 and coronavirus data updates are provided regularly on their nyc.gov website. Unfortunately I am unable to post the links to the data as this forum does not allow it since it is my first time posting, but please check out the very detailed data at their website. As of April 24, New York has 150,576 cases and 10,961 deaths, out of which 63 cases have no underlying conditions. Do the math – 63 out of 150,576 means that the fatality rate for a person with no underlying condition is 0.041%. This is lower than the fatality rate of seasonal flu, which is widely reported at 0.1%. We also know that the real infection rate is many times higher, as many people are asymptomatic and many others had mild illness and did not get tested. The Straits Times has reported one in five New Yorkers (or 1.7 million), has already been infected. So the real fatality rate for a person with no underlying condition is 63 out of 1,700,000 or 0.0037%. And the fatality rate for all patients including those with underlying conditions is 0.65%, not exactly a very scary number. And this is for a city considered the coronavirus hotspot. Separate serological studies in Santa Clara County in California, and a Los Angeles County found that the real infection rate is 50-85 times and 40 times higher respectively, than the official case numbers. In Denmark, it is found to be 20 times higher. All these mean that the real fatality rates are actually very small.
Next, we need to talk about vaccines. Many countries, including Singapore, are locking down the country to ‘flatten the curve’ while waiting for the promised vaccine. After 17 years, we still have no vaccine for SARS. Nor for MERS. After 40 years, neither is there a vaccine for AIDS. In fact, the world has never developed an effective vaccine for any type of coronavirus. The fact that Covid-19 is already mutating (studies show there are at least over 30 strains) means that there will never be an effective coronavirus vaccine – ever!
Hence, the lockdown strategy is flawed. Once the lockdown measures are eased, there will be a second wave, as long as there is no herd immunity. New York which has a fifth of the population (20%) already having antibodies, is only mere weeks away from herd immunity, if they ease the lockdown. With a transmission rate (R0) of 3.0 and a median cycle time of 5 days, 20% means that 5 days later, 60% would be infected. Another 5 days later, herd immunity is achieved as above 67% of the population would have been infected. Scientists agree that at above 67% infection rate, the infection stops.
All this leads us to only one logical conclusion – protect the vulnerable while achieving herd immunity. We know that people with underlying conditions have disproportionately high fatality rate from Covid-19. So, instead of locking down virtually 100% of the population, we should have a program for the vulnerable folks to shelter-in-place at their residences, and avoid all contact with other family members. The government could provide dedicated facilities for these vulnerable folks who are unable to shelter-in-place at their residences (a small co-payment is required to prevent abuse, and fees for low income residents waived). The remaining 80-85% of the population who have no underlying conditions can then go back to work and their daily lives. This method keeps the vulnerable folks safe, while the economy is not destroyed, jobs are not lost and incomes are protected. This will cost only a small fraction of the $65 billion and counting that we are spending.
It pains me to see our policymakers leading us down this self-imposed path of destruction. The economy is being devastated, jobs are being lost and many people's incomes are diving off a cliff, not to mention, people’s mental and physical well-being are also being compromised. We have never shut down the country over a flu, and for people with no underlying conditions, Covid-19 is really no worse than a flu. Need more evidence than the data above? We have well over 10,000 cases from the foreign worker dormitories, yet not even a single case is in ICU. Most have mild symptoms, or no symptoms at all. Of course, these people are mostly young and healthy, you say. This is my point precisely. For healthy folks with no underlying conditions, this is really just a flu or a mild irritant.
If you agree with the above data-based and fact-based inferences, please have this conversation with as many people as possible. Point out the data, let people calculate it and see for themselves. Call your MP or Minister in your constituency. Tell them to check the data that is becoming more obvious by the day, that locking down the country and destroying the economy and jobs is not the optimal path. There is a better way, and the data is pointing the way. |