North Korea

[Guile]

The Shifting North Korean Power Balance

Yoon Song Won | 2014-04-22 09:57

The present situation in Ukraine has revealed the reality of international power politics in Technicolor once more. For South Korea, a country wed to and largely dependent upon multilateral mechanisms to ensure its external security environment, this trend is great cause for alarm.

Northeast Asia is multipolar, and packed with domestic and international variables with the potential to make trouble. The more that can be done to mitigate the dangers, the better. In other words, Russia’s actions arguably make a strategy for unification all the more important. In this interview we speak to Yoon Young Kwan, a former South Korean foreign minister, to evaluate today’s fluctuating international community situation and the state of the North Korean regime.

Former Minister Yoon is currently authoring a book on the international system in the post-Cold War era.

Worries over global insecurity are on the rise. How is the changing situation in world affairs affecting unification on the Korean Peninsula?

I am currently authoring a book on the ebb and flow of the changing international system […] The global financial crisis of 2008 marked the end of changes in the international system since the end of the Cold War. If the United States’ reached its zenith of relative power after the Soviet Union disintegrated in 1991, then the financial crisis decimated that. One may see the international system today as multipolar, but the United States and China probably lead it. Thus, PRC-U.S. relations are an extremely important variable.

Undoubtedly, the Crimea situation is an important event, one that has raised tensions in U.S.-Russia relations and between the West and Russia. However, I am hesitant to call it a New Cold War because of a third variable – China. Although China and Russia are linked in a strategic alliance, we must wait and see how deep that alliance is. For instance, there won't be a mutually antagonistic relationship between two competing states, as developed during the Cold War.

Should the Korean Peninsula problem unfold in the context of PRC-U.S. relations as the two states’ attempt to expand their influence in East Asia, competition will probably persist. From the position of South Korea, ideally both sides would consolidate their opinions with regard to the unification issue, as well as stressing the ROK-U.S. alliance as the way to peaceful reunification with the agreement of the international community. Also, intensifying the Korea-China relationship means trust can be built with China [...] – this is important.

North Korea has affirmed its dual track policy of economic construction and development of nuclear weapons. Is this rational?

State actors always keep in mind the cost-benefit analysis. They intend to maximize benefit over cost, and the North Korean regime has calculated the profit and loss as well. It’s not necessarily helpful to judge North Korea’s rationality, or lack of, according to our own standards.

The problem is how South Korea responds when North Korea calculates its costs and benefits. For example, when we look at their nuclear program, the cost of developing the weapons is quite high compared to their obvious benefits – the issue is how to get North Korea to accept this and change their policy track. It is important for us to formulate strategies that can change North Korean leaders’ minds and contrive a general framework to encourage change by ramping up the costs of nuclear development in a way that outweighs the benefits. In the same vein, there is the need to investigate ways to realize cooperation with China on sanctions.

Unfortunately, the environment for inducing change in North Korea’s policies has deteriorated with Ukraine’s loss of Crimea and the collapse of the Libyan regime, which once gave up its nuclear weapons.

It’s true that things are a lot more difficult now. But when making a cost-benefit analysis, among the main factors that the North Korean regime has to factor in is the changing domestic situation. For instance, the authorities have to consider whether or not domestic elites are unified, the degree of power that top policymakers have, economic conditions, and changing awareness of the leadership by the people. Through things like the expansion of market mechanisms, the people’s changing awareness of leadership and the economic situation, increased openness in various areas mixes in with all the complex variables and the international situation. There is no need to speak of abandoning concerted anti-nuclear diplomacy. The domestic and international situation is always changing.

It seems that the North Korean regime has little desire to change of its own accord…

It seems that North Korean regime, particular it’s supreme policymakers, has little intention of changing, yes. However, North Korea’s domestic situation is steadily changing in ways completely unrelated to the highest decision makers in the state. After the mid-1990s, the food distribution system collapsed and market mechanisms began to expand independently without the backing of the state leadership.

There have been attempts, including the 2009 currency reform, to suppress the spread of markets, but they were futile. Even now we can see that many changes are occurring. If it is true that Park Nam Ki was executed after currency reform failed, doesn’t this show that different patterns are emerging within the regime? If the North Korean leadership is now afraid of its people, it means that the power balance between leaders and people is gradually changing.

Obviously in terms of politics and economy, there are myriad factors to consider in formulating a policy toward North Korea. In the West and the United States, there is no interest in the political undertones that indicate these kinds of internal changes in North Korea. Instead, focus is placed on what can be called the symptoms of North Korea’s problems; their nuclear program and weapons of mass destruction. We need to see fundamental causes and their solutions; not just symptoms.

Thus, denuclearization and diplomacy are important, but at the same time, the North Korean people should learn more of market principles through a socio-economic approach and exchanges and cooperation, so we can see that it’s important to make this as natural as possible for them. In the same context, extreme conflict over the course of North Korea policy is not advisable and is really a wasted effort. If there is sufficient convergence of opinion and sufficient outlay on a rational policy, then there will be no need for irrelevant disputes.

 

[Guile]

Travelers Dodge April 15th to Minimize Losses

Seol Song Ah | 2014-04-22 18:12

The end of April 15th [birth date of Kim Il Sung] celebrations in North Korea has seen a spike in the number of travelers returning home after legally visiting relatives in China, Daily NK has learned.

A Dandong-based source with trade links to North Korea reported on the 21st that many travelers may have avoided returning home before the public holiday as they hoped to avoid making a “loyalty donation” on top of the usual graft demanded by customs officers. Moreover, travelers tend to be searched more than traders as they are thought to be easier to extort than Chinese-Koreans.

“April 15th has passed, and travelers from Chosun on a visitor permit are now converging in Dandong and making their way home [to North Korea]," the source revealed. "If they had gone before the holiday then they would have had their possessions confiscated as per customs regulations, so they are returning now in the hope that they won't be as strict."

“I know of woman from Pyongyang in her 40s who told me that she returned home from her first trip to China on the exact date stipulated. She hadn't considered using the trip as a way to make money because her husband was a university professor, and later heard from others she was an ‘idiot’ for returning on the correct date,” he added.

Customs regulations ban industrial products and foodstuffs, but travelers are permitted to bring in household items such as televisions, fridges, washing machines, computers, voice recorders, bicycles and motorbikes. In addition, while foreign-made products including items produced in Japan and the United States are permitted, there is a ban on products originating from South Korea.

Returning travelers have a great deal at stake, as items bought at a Chinese second-hand market can fetch two or three times their original price in the North Korean equivalent. Some travelers pack their items as new, while others pay around 200 yuan to ensure successful passage through customs.

“Each traveler has an average of a truckload (10t) of luggage when they come back, but they still seem disappointed,” the source said, attributing the discontent to the fact that North Koreans legally visiting China can make up to 1600-200 yuan working in restaurants or as housekeepers – more than an average laborer in the North could save in 30 years.

"Information exchanged between travelers at the border mainly consists of methods to make money abroad," he went on. "Returning travelers all have the same sentiment; they are on their way home but their hearts are heavy. They complain that in China you can move around and make money, but in North Korea there is the absurdity of being mobilized to work for nothing.”

 

[JohnnyRico]

Kim Jong-un’s favourite group the Moranbong Band is back

PUBLISHED : Thursday, 24 April, 2014, 10:14pm
UPDATED : Thursday, 24 April, 2014, 10:14pm

Associated Press in Pyongyang

Four singers with the Moranbong Band thrill their fans. Photo: AP

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un's favourite group the Moranbong Band - with guitar-slinging, miniskirted girls - is back.

After a six-month break, the queens of North Korea's pop scene are once again playing to standing room-only crowds and rave reviews in the state media.

They are also the darlings of primetime television, such as it is.

<iframe src="//www.youtube.com/embed/-LuFRwiRHXA?rel=0" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="360" width="480"></iframe>

Even athletes at this month's Pyongyang marathon were treated to one of the band's livelier tunes - blared at them from a sound truck. More than merely a pop sensation, the Moranbong Band, said to have been hand-picked by Kim himself, has come to be the softer, more hummable face of the new Kim regime since the group's stage debut in 2012.

This is despite speculation at least one of its members had fallen out of favour in connection with the purge of Kim's once-powerful uncle earlier this year.

The last big concert by the band, made up of more than a dozen members - who play everything from electric violins and cellos to keyboards and drums - was in October.

Kim was on hand this month for one of band's comeback concerts, when, according to state media, he was treated to "colourful numbers" including O My Motherland Full of Hope, Our Father, We Think of the Marshal Day and Night and other "light" arrangements.

"The supreme commander spared time to watch the performance, though he was very busy with the work to protect the destiny of the country and its people from the arrogant and reckless moves of the US imperialists and other hostile forces to stifle the DPRK," the concert host reportedly told the audience.

"Kim Jong-un waved back to the cheering performers and audience and congratulated the artistes on their successful performance."

 

[JohnnyRico]

Pyongyang ‘seals tunnel ahead of nuclear test’, say South Korean officials

South Korean defence officials say Punggye-ri site has been readied for underground blast to coincide with Barack Obama's visit to Seoul

PUBLISHED : Thursday, 24 April, 2014, 10:11pm
UPDATED : Thursday, 24 April, 2014, 10:11pm

Andrew Salmon in Seoul

A picture from a North Korean newspaper shows state leader Kim Jong-un observing a firing drill by a women's artillery unit in Kangwon province. Photo: EPA

North Korea has apparently sealed the tunnel to its nuclear test site, a significant sign that it may carry out its fourth nuclear test imminently, according to defence officials in Seoul.

The move came as US President Barack Obama was due to arrive in Seoul today and follows warnings from Pyongyang over military drills carried out by US and South Korean forces.

A South Korean official said North Korea had placed fissile materials and related equipment in a tunnel at its underground nuclear test site at Punggye-ri, and sealed the tunnel entrance.

The sealing is crucial. According to the official, any country that seals nuclear material in an underground facility must carry out a detonation "within seven to 14 days" or unseal the tunnel and remove the materials.

"This is a technical issue," explained Shim Chang-hoon of Seoul think tank the Asan Institute. "If they want to conduct a nuclear-weapons test and have put the facilities inside, they cannot keep them there for longer than 15 days."

The official declined to say when the tunnel was sealed, but South Korea's Defence Ministry had announced activity at Punggye-ri on Tuesday.

If that activity included the tunnel sealing, a test will take place by May 6. South Korean officials had previously said a detonation awaited only a "political decision" from Pyongyang.

But not everyone agrees with Seoul's analysis. Influential website 38 North, citing satellite images, said it did not anticipate a test, given the apparent lack of communications gear at the site.

And South Korean officials have also said that the activity could be a bluff.

Punggye-ri, in the country's desolate northeast, is the site of 2006, 2009 and 2012 nuclear tests.

Today, Obama arrives in Seoul for the Korean leg of his Asian tour, of which Pyongyang media have been critical. South Korean and the US will also finish joint air-force exercises today.

"If you really want to send a message and express displeasure, what better time?" asked Dan Pinkstone of the International Crisis Group.

"It would be consistent with the regime's past behaviour."

Pyongyang has tested missiles and nuclear devices on sensitive or symbolic dates.

In 2006, North Korea detonated its first nuclear device while Shinzo Abe, during his first stint as Japan's prime minister, was visiting then South Korean president Roh Moo-hyun in Seoul. In 2009, it launched missiles on the US national holiday, July 4. And it test-fired two medium-range missiles on March 25 - the day that Obama hosted a summit with Abe and South Korean President Park Geun-hye.

"A nuclear test is an important card - like a joker - in power games," said Shim. "If North Korea believes that it has a bullying effect on the outside world, the dates of the visit would be one opportunity."

 

[Sakon Shima]

North Korea’s Kim urges soldiers to be ready for ‘impending conflict’ as Obama calls country weak ‘pariah state’

PUBLISHED : Saturday, 26 April, 2014, 10:53am
UPDATED : Saturday, 26 April, 2014, 10:53am

Agence France-Presse in Seoul

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has told soldiers to be ready for “impending conflict with the United States". Photo: AFP

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has chided his soldiers, telling them to be ready for “impending conflict with the United States,” Pyongyang media reported on Saturday as satellites showed a nuclear test could be near.

The report comes as US President Barack Obama finishes up a two-day visit to South Korea, where he warned the North it faced tougher sanctions if the underground detonation went ahead.

It also comes after Pyongyang claimed it had been holding a young American for two weeks.

US President Barack Obama told American troops in Seoul on Saturday that North Korea is a weak “pariah state” whose heavily militarised border with the South marks “freedom’s frontier”.

US President Barack Obama delivers remarks at Yongsan Garrison in Seoul. Photo: Reuters

The meeting place of the two countries is a division between a “democracy that is growing and a pariah state that would rather starve its people than feed their hopes and dreams”, he said.

Pyongyang’s continued pursuit of nuclear weapons is “a path that leads only to more isolation”, said Obama, as he dismissed the Stalinist state’s sabre-rattling.

The North appears to be making preparations for a nuclear test - its fourth - despite stringent sanctions imposed by the international community.

“Anybody can make threats. That does not make you strong. Those things don’t come through force, they have to be earned.”

Obama also said the US-South Korean alliance was as “strong as it has ever been”.

“We don’t hesitate to use our military might to defend our allies and our way of life,” he told cheering troops and air force personnel.

Kim, the supreme commander of the North’s 1.2-million-strong armed forces often visits military units to deliver on-the-spot “guidance” on ways to strengthen preparedness.

He usually lavishes them with praise and presents gifts such as rifles or binoculars as symbols of their vigilance.

But after watching a shelling drill by an artillery sub-unit on Friday, he upbraided soldiers for their lax approach, the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) said.

“Dear Supreme Commander Kim Jong-un said nothing is more important than preparing for combat now, in the face of an impending conflict with the United States”, KCNA reported.

North Korean state media regularly carries colourfully-phrased warnings that the isolated state is on the verge of war.

Pointing at a map, Kim ordered the unit to establish a firing position and start the shelling exercise, the agency said, without revealing the location.

“Watching the drill, he severely criticised the sub-unit for failing to make good combat preparation” citing the time it had taken to deploy, it said.

He blamed a lack of enthusiasm over training among the sub-unit’s commander and his superiors.

“The minds of the commanding officers of this sub-unit and relevant unit seem to be away from the battlefield”, he said, KCNA reported. It is unusual for the agency to carry direct quotes from Kim.

“Of course, they might do sideline jobs for improving service personnel’s living conditions and do their bit in building a rich and powerful nation.

“However, they should always give priority to combat preparations”, he said.

Speaking in Seoul on Friday after satellite imagery revealed the North was advancing preparations for a nuclear test, Obama warned it of sanctions with “more bite” unless it fell into line.

North Korea has conducted three nuclear tests, in 2006, 2009 and last year.

Underlining its status as global outlaw, Pyongyang said late on Friday that it had been holding US citizen Miller Matthew Todd, 24, since April 10 because of his “rash behaviour” while passing through immigration.

 

[Sakon Shima]

North Korea claims to hold American tourist who demanded asylum

US visitor demanded asylum, says report released during Obama's visit

PUBLISHED : Friday, 25 April, 2014, 11:34pm
UPDATED : Saturday, 26 April, 2014, 1:37am

Agence France-Presse in Seoul

President Park Geun-hye welcomes Barack Obama to the Blue House in Seoul yesterday as he continues his four-nation swing through Asia. Photo: AP

North Korea said yesterday it had been holding a tourist from the United States in custody for more than two weeks after he apparently ripped up his visa at immigration and demanded asylum.

The announcement, made in a brief dispatch carried by the North's official KCNA news agency, came as US President Barack Obama wrapped up the first part of a two-day visit to South Korea.

The tourist, identified as "Miller Matthew Todd", 24, had been taken into custody April 10 for "his rash behaviour in the course of going through formalities for entry" into North Korea, KCNA said.

The report said he remained in detention and was under investigation.

North Korea is currently holding another US citizen, Kenneth Bae, described by a North Korean court as a militant Christian evangelist.

Bae, arrested in November 2012, was sentenced to 15 years' hard labour on charges of seeking to topple the government.

According to KCNA, Miller had a tourist visa, but tore it to pieces and shouted that "he would seek asylum" and had come to North Korea "after choosing it as a shelter." There was no immediate reaction from Washington, or Obama's delegation in Seoul.

The announcement appeared to have been timed to coincide with Obama's visit to Seoul, where he warned Pyongyang of sanctions with "more bite" if it went ahead with a fourth nuclear test.

Satellite photos taken just two days ago showed new activity at North Korea's Punggye-ri test site that was "probably related to preparations for a detonation", the US-Korea Institute at Johns Hopkins University said.

Stressing that Washington and Seoul stood "shoulder to shoulder" in their refusal to accept a nuclear North Korea, Obama said Pyongyang's behaviour was even alienating its only major ally, China.

"Threats will get North Korea nothing, other than greater isolation," Obama said at a joint news conference with South Korean President Park Geun-hye. "China is beginning to recognise that North Korea is not just a nuisance but a significant problem for their own security," he added.

Park said a fourth nuclear test by North Korea would "fundamentally shake and alter" the entire security landscape in Northeast Asia. "As a result, the UN would be left with no choice but to slap even stronger punishments on the North," she said.

Both the US and South Korea have repeatedly called on China to use its political and economic influence and exert more pressure on Pyongyang to give up its nuclear weapons programme.

Obama also waded into one of the most contentious issues in Northeast Asia, saying the Japanese wartime system of sex slavery was a "terrible" violation of human rights and its victims need to be heard.

Obama said there needed to be an accounting of the wrongs perpetrated by Japanese Imperial troops before and during the second world war when thousands of women were forced into prostitution.

"This was a terrible, egregious violation of human rights. Those women were violated in ways that even in the midst of war were shocking," he said. "And they deserve to be heard, they deserve to be respected. And there should be an accurate and clear account of what happened."

 

[Sun Jian]

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/football/article-2616240/Bayern-Munich-0-4-Real-Madrid-Cristiano-Ronaldo-Sergio-Ramos-double-Los-Blancos-make-Champions-League-final.html

 

[JohnnyCage]

North Korea's new 'number two'? Leadership shuffle seen in hermit state

An official news report identified Hwang Pyong-so as the director of the Korean People's Army; his predecessor's fate is unknown

PUBLISHED : Friday, 02 May, 2014, 11:17am
UPDATED : Friday, 02 May, 2014, 2:28pm

Agence France-Presse

Hwang Pyong-so, at left, was described in an official news report on May Day celebrations as the director of the Korean People's Army, replacing Choe Ryong-hae. Photo: KCNA/EPA

North Korea has signalled a key leadership change with an announcement that the man seen as Kim Jong-un’s second in command has been replaced as political chief of the military.

In a report on May Day celebrations in Pyongyang, the North’s official KCNA news agency identified Hwang Pyong-so as the director of the Korean People’s Army (KPA) General Political Bureau, not Choe Ryong-hae, who previously held the position.

The post is generally viewed as the second most important in the military after Kim, who is supreme commander.

The leadership change comes amid growing concerns that the North is preparing to conduct a fourth nuclear test in the face of stern international opposition after satellite images showed a recent increase in activity at the country’s main test site.

“To all intents and purposes, this makes Hwang, who also has close personal ties to Kim Jong-un, the second-most powerful man in the country,” said Michael Madden, author and editor of the NK Leadership Watch website.

Hwang’s appointment came just days after KCNA reported his promotion to the rank of vice marshal on April 28 — a rank shared with Choe and just four others.

It was not immediately clear what had become of Choe, who was widely believed to have moved into the role of North Korea’s unofficial number two following the execution in December of Kim’s uncle and political mentor, Jang Song-thaek.

Choe Ryong-hae, at left, appeared with Kim Jong-un as recently as mid-April. North Korea watchers suspect health problems may have sidelined him. Photo: AP

Choe holds a number of other top positions as a politburo standing committee member and a vice chairman of both the Central Military Commission and the National Defence Commission.

There were multiple reports earlier this year that Choe had been arrested and possibly purged after he dropped from public view for three weeks — an unusually long absence for such a senior figure.

His reappearance in March, alongside Kim, led to speculation that his disappearance might have been due to health problems.

“I don’t think we can say Choe has been purged, but he’s clearly been moved aside, possibly for health or other reasons,” said Yang Moo-Jin, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies in Seoul.

Yang agreed that Hwang was now effectively number two in the country, given his military rank, position and personal access to the supreme leader.

Hwang, 64, was a top official in the ruling party’s Organisation Guidance Department with a portfolio that included the physical and political protection of Kim Jong-un.

According to Madden, his name started to emerge in the mid-2000s around the time Kim Jong-un’s father, Kim Jong-il, was finalising arrangements for who would succeed him as leader.

“He became one of Kim Jong-un’s mentors and has been close to him for around 10 years, so he’s been groomed for this role,” Madden said.

The North in February promoted a host of military officials, including the chief of its Strategic Rocket Force Command, the unit that operates its mid-and long-range missiles, such as this one that launched in 2012. Photo: AP/KCNA

Hwang reportedly addressed a banquet in Pyongyang held for workers at a textile mill and attended by KPA commanding officers, according to KCNA.

A report earlier in the week in the official news service said Hwang accompanied Kim on a tour of a newly built workers’ hostel at the mill but made no mention of Choe, sparking initial speculation of the leadership shuffle.

Rumours about changes at the top of the Pyongyang regime intensified following Jang Song-thaek’s execution.

In February, North Korea promoted a host of key military officials including the chief of its rocket unit, the Strategic Rocket Force Command, which is in charge of the country’s mid- and long-range missiles programme.

Ranking the leadership is North Korea is often a matter of educated guesswork, and some analysts warned that the “number two” label could be misleading, given the complex, opaque workings of the official and personal networks that determine genuine power in Pyongyang.

“In one way, there is no real ‘number two’,” said Dan Pinkston, North East Asia deputy project director with the International Crisis Group in Seoul.

“There’s the number one, and then there’s everybody else, some of whom get closer to the seat of power than others for certain periods of time,” Pinkston said.

 

[Shin Orochi]

Call for Action as Drought Worsens

Oh Se Hyek | 2014-05-05 08:39

North Korea has called for a nationwide response to mitigate loss as drought conditions worsen across the country.

In a piece entitled, “Let’s Thoroughly Guard Against Drought Damage,” state media outlet the Rodong Sinmun urged that all efforts be channeled into preventing further damage.

“All areas are suffering. The western area in particular is having its worst drought in decades, which is having an extremely detrimental impact on farms,” the piece said.

According to the article, general food security is now a serious concern, as “whether or not this year’s grain production goals will be met or not depends largely on preventing [further damage]. There is no time to lose.”

Further requirements include “active utilization of underground water facilities and the mobilization of lift pumping equipment," the piece went on.

Meanwhile, Chosun Central News Agency [KCNA] announced Friday that average rainfall from mid-February until the end of April totaled only 23.5mm, the lowest recorded average since 1982.

 

[JohnnyCage]

Kim Jong-un's Aunt Reappears on TV

chosun.com / May 01, 2014 09:24 KST

North Korean state TV on Tuesday showed images of leader Kim Jong-un's aunt Kim Kyong-hui, the widow of executed eminence grise Jang Song-taek, after a period when she was edited out of propaganda footage.

It is unclear whether this means that she has been rehabilitated.

The footage in question appeared in a film about Kim Jong-un's sports-related activities and showed Kim Kyong-hui touring a soccer stadium alongside her nephew.

In this screen grab on [North] Korean Central Television aired on Wednesday, Kim Kyong-hui tours a soccer stadium with Kim Jong-un and his wife.

On April 15, a repeat of a film showing senior officials paying their respects to former leader Kim Jong-il at the Kumsusan Palace of the Sun, Kim Kyong-hui had been edited out.

A government official here speculated at the time that this could mean she had been purged and relieved of all party posts.

Rumors circulated in North Korea that she had committed suicide after her husband's execution. She has still not been seen in public again.

 

[JohnnyCage]

Choe Ryong Hae Reborn as Workers' Party Secretary

Koo Jun Hoe and Chris Green | 2014-05-04 23:28

It has been confirmed that Choe Ryong Hae, former head of the General Political Department of the Chosun People’s Army, has been moved to a secretarial position within the Chosun Workers’ Party.

During a May 2nd report on Kim Jong Eun’s visit to the newly remodeled Songdowon International Children’s Camp near the city of Wonsan, Chosun Central News Agency announced, “Secretary of the Central Committee of the Chosun Workers’ Party Choe Ryong Hae made a speech at the ceremony.”

Choe’s ranking on the published list of attending officials also reinforced the point that he has been demoted. He was listed fourth on the list behind Party heavyweights Kim Ki Nam and Choe Thae Bok, as well as Hwang Pyong So, who was listed first. Hwang, a close affiliate of Kim Jong Eun, is now performing Choe’s former role.

Such listings have long been used as proxies for the comparison of relative power within the ruling hierarchies of socialist states over time. However, they are also an imprecise measure in circumstances such as the familial state structure of North Korea. Kim Jong Eun’s sister Kim Yo Jong appeared ninth on the list of attendees at Songdowon, but her power is likely to exceed that of others due to her family links within the ruling elite.

Choe’s demotion means that all four of the core personnel tasked with building the Kim Jong Eun succession system have now been removed from gatekeeper roles. Among the other three, former Chief-of-Staff Ri Yong Ho was dismissed from all his positions in mid-2012, Jang Song Taek was executed at the end of 2013, and Kim Jong Eun’s aunt Kim Kyong Hui has not been publicly active since autumn 2013.

“Director of the General Political Department of the KPA is the position of overall management and control of the People’s Army; being pushed out of that position breaks Choe Ryong Hae’s authority,” one Seoul-based North Korea expert told Daily NK on condition of anonymity. He added that making Choe a Party secretary is tantamount to “giving him a high position but no authority.” Former leader Kim Jong Il took similar steps on a regular basis to ensure that no alternative power bases were able to form beyond his immediate control.

However, Sejong Institute researcher Cheong Seong Chang gave an alternative analysis, pointing out, “Choe Ryong Hae is in worsening health, which means that he could no longer actively pursue the leading role in the General Political Department. Rather than making him retire following his dismissal, he has been appointed to a Party position dealing with labor organizations, where the burden of the work is smaller.”

“Kim Jong Eun positioned Choe very close by his side, to show that he still has unwavering trust in him,” Cheong added. In North Korean television footage from the Songdowon events, Choe appears alongside Kim Jong Eun almost continuously, dressed in a dark business suit with the mandatory pin badge.

Meanwhile, it has not been confirmed whether Choe has also been removed from the Standing Committee of the Party Politburo, National Defense Commission and Party Central Military Committee, although this is believed to be likely.

 

[JohnnyCage]

Report: China's Military Prepared for Collapse Scenario

Jin Dong Hyeok, intern | 2014-05-05 10:08

China’s military has initiated a number of measures in preparation for a possible regime collapse in North Korea, a leaked military document suggests.

Japan’s Kyodo News said Saturday it had obtained a document published last summer detailing increased surveillance along selected border areas in tandem with the dispatch of a number of military personnel. The establishment of camps was similarly floated as a potential measure to cope with a large influx of refugees, the article claimed.

North Korea is not explicitly named in the document, but is referred to as “our country’s northeastern neighbor,” and “the country next door with the hereditary system.”

“As foreign shows of force are out of our control, a situation could arise whereby our country faces an influx of military units via the border regions. There is concern that this circumstance could allow a foothold of resistance to form among refugees and breakaway soldiers,” the document allegedly stated.

Moreover, “Under these circumstances teams must be dispatched to border regions including ‘reconnaissance groups’ to assess the situation, ‘investigation groups’ to question those who come into [China], ‘blockade groups’ that prevent the influx of threats, and ‘armed groups’ to defend against hostile powers.”

It was further suggested that camps able to house a maximum of 1500 people each be established at various locations along the border, with a protection mechanism in place to prevent the assassination of key military and political figures.

“Key figures must be moved to a separate investigation facility to ensure they cannot command any military activity nor band together with other forces [already in China],” the document continued.

The report is as yet unverified.

 

[JohnnyCage]

Choe Ryong Hae not purged, but no longer No. 2

Kim's former second-in-command still around, but apparently changing role

May 3rd, 2014
John G. Grisafi

Choe Ryong Hae, the former director of the KPA General Political Bureau recently replaced by Hwang Pyong So, has reappeared in public after a more than two-week absence. Choe appeared with North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un and other high-ranking officials during events at the Songdowon International Children’s Camp in Wonsan, Kangwon Province, on Friday, KCNA reported.

Choe, Kim’s de facto second-in-command for many months, was recently replaced in his primary post as chief political officer in the military by Hwang Pyong So, who appears to be the new number two man in Pyongyang. The changes, which included the promotion of Hwang to vice marshal, the same rank as Choe, took place during Choe’s second unexplained absence this year. South Korea’s Ministry of Unification has suggested that Choe is suffering from health problems, also evident by the limp Choe was sporting in March.

The absences and position changes have led to speculation about Choe’s fate, including whether or not he’d been purged from the regime. He is widely considered to have been closer to Kim Jong Il and Jang Song Taek than to Kim Jong Un. But it appears now that Choe is not being purged so much as being gradually phased out of power.

It is not uncommon for the North Korean regime to relegate older officials to token positions of less real power. Choe was made a vice chairman of the National Defense Commission in April but subsequently lost his post in the KPA General Political Bureau. Choe’s appearance in civilian clothing instead of military uniform on Friday suggests a less active role in the military for him – though he probably retains his rank as a reserve officer. State media listed Choe’s name after those of Choe Thae Bok and Kim Ki Nam – whereas it was previously did so the other way around – suggesting he’s fallen below these two in the hierarchy.

Photo: Kim and Choe at Songdowon, May 2, KCNA

 

[JohnnyCage]

China and N. Korea simplify border-crossing procedures

Agreement is the latest in a series of recent moves aimed at increasing the flow of tourists into the country

May 5th, 2014
Ole Jakob Skåtun

Chinese citizens going on tours from border cities in Jilin and Liaoning provinces can now get travel passes to North Korea within 24 hours, Yonhap reported on Monday.

It is not immediately clear when the rules, replacing the previous two-day waiting period, came into effect.

The development comes as last week 35 Chinese bicycle-tourists traveled from China’s northeastern city of Tumen to the North Korean border city of Onsong, marking the start of a program in which Chinese tourists can go on one-day bicycle tours to North Korea under simplified entrance procedures, Xinhua reported.

Pyongyang has recently been ramping up efforts to attract foreign tourists since the opening, early this year, of the Masikryeong ski resort, close to the country’s east coast.

Last month, Chinese authorities announced the establishment of a second railway link between China and North Korea, aimed at increasing tourist exchanges between the two countries, according to ITAR-TASS.

With the establishment of the route, the northeastern city of Ji’an in Jillin province became the second Chinese city, after Dandong, from which Chinese residents can visit North Korea by train.

Traffic has increased since last year, when Beijing revoked a ban on group travel to North Korea, which had been in effect for four years, and the departure frequency of trains from Dandong to Pyongyang has been upped from four times per week to a daily basis.

 

[JohnnyCage]

North Korea announces plan to develop tourism zone

Companies and individuals to receive special considerations in Mt. Geumgang tourism zone

May 5th, 2014
Kang Tae-jun

The Choson Mt. Geumgang International Travel Agency has revealed special considerations for individuals and companies which are interested in the Mt. Geumgang tourism business.

According to the agency on May 1, North Korea’s goal is to develop Mt. Geumgang as a special international tourism zone, with Pyongyang encouraging corporations and individuals from foreign countries and South Korea to invest.

The agency added that foreign businesses in the Tourism Special Zone will be able to hire South Korean citizens as well as Koreans living in foreign countries, and their economic activities in the zone will be protected by law.

It also said that foreign businesses will be able to borrow land in the zone for up to 50 years, and they will enjoy a special tax benefit.

In addition, foreign businesses and individuals in the zone will be able to open accounts with banks outside of North Korea, and they will be free to transact with foreign banks.

Tours to Mt. Geumgang in North Korea, which started in 1998, were halted after a South Korean tourist was shot by a North Korean soldier in 2008.

The May 24th Measure – the suspension of all inter-Korean economic exchanges except humanitarian aid in 2010 – started under the Lee Myung-bak administration after the sinking of South Korea’s Cheonan naval vessel, which was blamed on the North, in 2010.

However, the South Korean government recently announced that the resumption of tours to Mt. Geumgang needs to be reconsidered for improving inter-Korean relations.

Kim Eui-do, a spokesman of South Korea’s Ministry of Unification, told reporters on March 24 that the South Korean government is willing to reconsider the resumption of tours to Mt. Geumgang when North Korea takes the relevant and responsible action in terms of securing the safety of South Korean tourists.

In addition, the Ministry of Unification announced on April 25 that the government has decided to lend a total of 20 billion won ($19 million) to South Korean businesses, including those who invested in Mt. Geumgang’s tourism business or imported goods from North Korea with advance payments before the May 24th Measure.

The South Korean government previously provided loans to those businesses in 2009 and 2010.

Featured Image: Jo, Creative Commons

 

[JohnnyCage]

 

[Yukimura Sanada]

Report: State Rations Held Steady in April

Jin Dong Hyeok, intern | 2014-05-07 09:01

North Korean citizens received an average of 420g of state food rations per day throughout April, Radio Free Asia reported on the 6th.

Citing information released by the UN World Food Program’s Pyongyang office, the report said the amount was the same as the preceding months of February and March, and up 20g from January’s food rations.

The distributed food constitutes only 66% of the minimum 600g recommended by the WFP.

According to WFP documents, there is no evidence to suggest a spike in food supply following the “special holiday rations” supposedly distributed by the regime to mark the birthday of Kim Il Sung on the 15th.

The regime has also claimed that the rice and corn mix delivered last month through the national distribution system reached 66% of the country’s population, an as yet unverified figure.

Meanwhile, the WFP provided 2,405 tons of food aid to the North last month destined for children and pregnant women, significantly less than the 4,093 tons provided during the same month last year.

 

[JohnnyCage]

Sugary Snacks Vanish from Capital

Lee Sang Yong | 2014-05-06 17:23

Long popular with the people of North Korea, South Korean “Choco Pies” have disappeared without a trace from the markets of the capital, a Pyongyang-based source reported to Daily NK on the 2nd.

“Because of recent crackdowns, Choco Pies from the ‘neighborhood below’ [South Korea] are hard to come by," she explained. "Since the order came down demanding that they restrict the sale of South Korean goods, you can only find Chinese substitutes and the local version.”

“In markets in Pyongyang you can see plenty of our Choco Pies produced locally at Yongseong Foodstuffs Factory, but they’re small and don’t taste good at all so not many people want them,” the source went on. “Unlike last year when they first came out, the number of people buying them has fallen.”

As is well known, Choco Pies made by the South Korean company Orion are distributed as daily snacks to North Korean employees at the Kaesong Industrial Complex [KIC]. Instead of eating them, many are taken out of the inter-Korean manufacturing zone and sold in local markets at a good price; currently around 1500 won per pie. Sources report that the North Korean equivalent is so similar in appearance to the South Korean version that it’s hard to tell them apart, though the term “Choco Pie” has been replaced with “Choco Rice Cake,” as is also the case for most South Korean derivatives of the original product.

According to the source, members of the domestic security forces have been going around markets in recent months confiscating items suspected of being South Korean in origin such as second hand clothes. The authorities give the impression of wanting to halt the influx of such products into the country; hitherto it had been enough to simply remove South Korean tags to obscure a product's origin.

In doing this, the authorities are emphasizing the importance of “Socialism in Our Style” while attempting to put a stop to the popularity of South Korean products, which poses a challenge to ideological indoctrination, analysts believe.

“CDs loaded with South Korean dramas have also totally disappeared in the crackdowns. In this confrontational environment, people can’t enjoy the culture of the neighborhood below, not even in secret,” the source added.

The crackdown appears to be focused on Pyongyang, whose residents often find themselves subject to greater state surveillance in exchange for the highest standard of living in the country. South Korean Choco Pies are circulating freely elsewhere, sources say. One such Yangkang-based source reported, “For about two months at the end of last year there was talk that the South Korean Choco Pies contained some strange substance, and then there were none in the markets. But now there are plenty.”

This latest report follows on Daily NK’s update on April 18th that North Korean laborers at the Kaesong Industrial Complex use Choco Pies to bet on company sports matches with.

 

[JohnnyCage]

North to Consider UNHRC Recommendations

Jin Dong Hyeok, intern | 2014-05-07 13:08

The United Nations Human Rights Council [UNHRC] has presented North Korea with 268 recommendations to improve human rights in the country, 185 of which the North has said it will consider.

The recommendations were presented in Geneva on the 6th in a report set to be made public at the upcoming UNHRC meeting in September.

North Korea’s ambassador to the United Nations So Se Pyong later slammed the move as “a work of prejudice and a misunderstanding of the Republic.”

Nevertheless, the North has agreed to review 185 of the recommendations put forth and is expected to let the council know of its decision prior to the September meeting.

Rejected recommendations include the scrapping of “guilt by association,” future cooperation with the international criminal court, the implementation of recommendations as outlined by the Commission of Inquiry into North Korean human rights, a visit to to the country by a UN human rights investigation team, the closure of the nation's political prison camps and the abolition of discrimination based on the songbun class system.

Kwon Eun Kyoung of the International Coalition to Stop Crimes Against Humanity in North Korea [ICNK] explained to Daily NK, “The recommendations are a UN mechanism through which all UNHRC member states can demand detailed and explicit improvements of another country’s human rights situation. The North rejected a set of recommendations presented to them in 2009, so that they are reviewing 185 recommendations this time around indicates they are feeling the pressure from the international community.”

“Sudan and Malaysia, countries who are said to be friendly with North Korea, also made recommendations that the North make an effort to improve the human rights of its people. The COI or a special human rights team could be waved aside as ‘political scheming,’ but these recommendations are not something the North is able to reject 100%," Kwon further assessed.

 

[JohnnyCage]

Satellite Spots Preparations for N.Korean Nuke Test

chosun.com / May 07, 2014 09:28 KST

A U.S. military satellite has detected "imminent signs" of a fresh North Korean nuclear test, CNN quoted a senior Defense Department official as saying Monday.

The Pentagon official said the satellite last weekend photographed a tarpaulined tunnel entrance at a nuclear test site in Punggye-ri, North Hamgyong Province.

This could be an attempt to prevent the surveillance satellite from spying on the process of preparing for an underground nuclear test.

The final preparatory stage of a nuclear test would be to fill up the tunnel entrance.

The same day, Foreign Minister Yun Byung-se met with EU foreign minister Catherine Ashton in New York. "If North Korea carries out a fresh nuclear test or fires mid-range missiles, the international community should slap strong sanctions on Pyongyang enough to put the kibosh on the issue," Yun said. He called for a new type of sanction to bring an end to the North's nuclear program.

Seoul has stepped up 24-hour surveillance, believing that a fourth North Korean nuclear test is imminent.

"We can't rule out that the North is bluffing," a government official said. "But it seems they've finished preparations for a nuclear test and are now just waiting for the regime to give the go-ahead."