looks like its becoming a
2-Horse race : TM vs TKL View attachment 187755
TKL is a gone case even before 2nd half of campaigning.
I would benchmark this PE not with Pe2011 but PE1993. OTC only managed to win 58% of votes against an unknown opponent. GE1991 PAP score close to 70% (rough calculation) Compare now when anti pap climax runs high i don't expect Tharman to fare better than OTC.
PE is always seen as a good chance by risk averse voters to cast protest votes. But it still a long shot for NKS. The key is he needs both the middle ground and opposition votes to have a practical chance.