Next GE, status quo to remain?

[Perspective]

What make you so sure? In the event of Low walking out of Hougang, you tink who is most likely to takeover his place and what is the most likely result?

If Low walks out of Hougang he'll lose the GRC he goes to and his successor will lose the seat he gave up. So who take over also immaterial.

I think Low knows that and will remain in Hougang. When he's in Hougang, he's a sure-get. From 52% to 55% to 62% and he hasn't done anything to piss off his constituents.

 

[Goh Meng Seng]

If Low walks out of Hougang he'll lose the GRC he goes to and his successor will lose the seat he gave up. So who take over also immaterial.

I think Low knows that and will remain in Hougang. When he's in Hougang, he's a sure-get. From 52% to 55% to 62% and he hasn't done anything to piss off his constituents.

I beg to differ. WP's brand name is worth a lot more than most people think. Anyone who takes over LTK's place in Hougang will still win, maybe with lower majority but still win.

Whether LTK will win in a GRC will depend on a lot more factors and I believe PAP is aware of the possibilities.

Goh Meng Seng

 

[Thick Face Black Heart]

Cambridge education means nothing to me. All I see is a stiff upper-lipped aristocrat who should be better running in British politics than Singapore politics.

What's wrong with KJ? I don't like his policies, I consider them too leftist but at least you have a Cambridge educated gentleman going for the position rather than some two bit computer shop owner who can't even afford $13k to pay his deposit.

 

[Perspective]

I beg to differ. WP's brand name is worth a lot more than most people think. Anyone who takes over LTK's place in Hougang will still win, maybe with lower majority but still win.

Whether LTK will win in a GRC will depend on a lot more factors and I believe PAP is aware of the possibilities.

Goh Meng Seng

Take WP's vote in Hougang minus WP's average vote elsewhere and that premium is Low's premium. The difference is about 20%. If Low is not in Hougang, his successor gets 62% minus 20% = 42%.

Without Low, WP is very shaky in Hougang. And I'm saying very. Let's not kid ourselves. If WP's branding were so strong, they would have crossed 40% in every seat contested.

Brand name means nothing as it can be destroyed. SDP once had brand name and it won easily more seats and votes than WP which was an older party, for about 2 elections. You can lose the brand name by making the "wrong" moves like SDP or kept underground totally like WP. WP could have avoided the predicament if it didn't play too safe, but it might be too late now since you can't build up something in such a short time when there was 2006 to 2010 to do so.

 

[GoldenDragon]

If Low walks out of Hougang he'll lose the GRC he goes to and his successor will lose the seat he gave up. So who take over also immaterial.

I think Low knows that and will remain in Hougang. When he's in Hougang, he's a sure-get. From 52% to 55% to 62% and he hasn't done anything to piss off his constituents.

Absolutely correct. LTK is intelligent. Age is on his side too, unlike CST. LTK will wait for the right time to enter into a GRC. The time is not now. Next GE perhaps. There again, he may not even consider a GRC contest for reasons best known to himself.

 

[Goh Meng Seng]

I do not agree with such calculations because it involves a lot more factors than pure mathematics and there is a fallacy in your argument but never mind. (i.e. by your logic, as long as there isn't any team or candidates who win seats other than LTK, then nobody could hold the ground in Hougang!)

WP's branding is the strongest among the opposition parties, amidst whatever shortcomings it has. You don't need to look anywhere else but just its sales of its publication, Hammer. But I do agree with you, branding could be destroyed if we are not careful. It is precisely so that WP takes a very conservative approach to protect its own branding.

There is no right or wrong in this, just a matter of perspective because nobody knows WHAT IFs and such.

There was an offline discussion about branding vs personality not so long ago. Some may think that personality is more important than party branding, even go to the extreme that says party branding is immaterial or doesn't really matter. The other end would say that party branding is MORE important than personalities...

I believe that the truth lies somewhere in the middle. Yes, the party's branding depends a lot on personalities or individuals in it but that doesn't mean that party's branding does not matter. If a party's branding is very bad, anyone who stood under its banner will suffer.

If you are talking about the ability of individuals to enhance the party's branding then it really takes time... it will take even longer time for one to enhance a party with very bad branding.

Goh Meng Seng

Take WP's vote in Hougang minus WP's average vote elsewhere and that premium is Low's premium. The difference is about 20%. If Low is not in Hougang, his successor gets 62% minus 20% = 42%.

Without Low, WP is very shaky in Hougang. And I'm saying very. Let's not kid ourselves. If WP's branding were so strong, they would have crossed 40% in every seat contested.

Brand name means nothing as it can be destroyed. SDP once had brand name and it won easily more seats and votes than WP which was an older party, for about 2 elections. You can lose the brand name by making the "wrong" moves like SDP or kept underground totally like WP. WP could have avoided the predicament if it didn't play too safe, but it might be too late now since you can't build up something in such a short time when there was 2006 to 2010 to do so.

 

[neddy]

The true test for the future PAP is to figure how to lead Singapore after a sudden, and not gradual, loss of LKY's guidance. The sooner the loss, the better for PAP's long term survival, because the electorate is only going to get more vocal with time.

I doubt PAP will remain as one piece. It will be broken up into factions if the old man leave the scene and PAP suffers a setback. Perhaps even before then, the disagreements will divide the party.

With factions, it may be good strategically since it will get wider voter appeal.

Perhaps N Korea has some lessons for the PAP on how it manages to pull off the Great Leader is still with us in heaven and in juche.

 

[Narong Wongwan]

1991 is not freak results. Back then people did want opposition members to be elected into parliament.

That year PAP also narrowly win Bukit Batok 51.8% 858 votes, Braddell Height 52.3% 1,169 votes and Eunos GRC 52.4% 4,160 votes

And the next elections after that voters suddenly didn't want opposition anymore?
I say freak because so far only happened once, probably due to CST simple but effective 'by-election effect' strategy

 

[Robert Half]

And the next elections after that voters suddenly didn't want opposition anymore?
I say freak because so far only happened once, probably due to CST simple but effective 'by-election effect' strategy

I think is due to then SDP in-fighting publicly and poor performance from SDP MPs.

1997~2006 GE is totally different 1984~1991.

After 1997 GE, people wanted one party rule & even many educated sinkie women do not want GE to be hold anymore.

Sad to say Sinkies exp women are not democratic-minded :(

 

[theblackhole]

With MM Lee at the helm, it will still be a Clean Sweep for the PAP. Like it or hate it, you have no choice.PAP will continue to govern and dominate. Just look at the Oppo..you can puke one...wait and read more of their theatricals and antics...and their hidden stories ...and more wayangs on the way!!!

 

[Robert Half]

With MM Lee at the helm, it will still be a Clean Sweep for the PAP. Like it or hate it, you have no choice.PAP will continue to govern and dominate. Just look at the Oppo..you can puke one...wait and read more of their theatricals and antics...and their hidden stories ...and more wayangs on the way!!!

Only Worker Party look credible & respectable. They really challenge to win a GRC.

As for the rest, the local daily alway publish their internal fighting negative news.

As a voter, if the party is not united I won't vote for them