Next GE, status quo to remain?

[Perspective]

Was discussing politics with a church friend. Feel that the status quo would remain after the next GE.

The reason is this - while the relationship between PAP and voters have been more strained due to the 4 years of govt mishaps, the opposition has expanded too fast. Right now, it looks like nearly all seats will be contested - up from 60% of the seats.

The WP and SDA remains while NSP has grown by one GRC, SDP by one GRC and RP by 2 GRCs, meaning 5 more GRCs will be contested. In 2006, 7 GRCs were uncontested. Chiam is also going for a GRC, thereby leading people in other GRCs to think that there's no need to vote opposition since Chiam will win a GRC.

This would make voters afraid of a freak change in govt. Hence, with Chiam stepping out of PP, only Hougang would remain. The other 8 will be NCMPs.

Any thoughts and views?

 

[cleareyes]

This would make voters afraid of a freak change in govt. Hence, with Chiam stepping out of PP, only Hougang would remain. The other 8 will be NCMPs.

Any thoughts and views?

There will be no freak change of goverment. PAP will remiain in power, maybe at a reduce percentage in votes and maybe even seats.

But such reduction could speed up the power struggle within PAP itself and that could bring about the spilt and fall of PAP oin the next 10 to 15 years or so.

 

[Thick Face Black Heart]

I think one GRC will be won, and the rest NCMP seats. Whether the status quo remains after that will depend on who wins.

Like it or not, RP under KJ may be the one winning that GRC. That is something we have to face and come to terms with. There will definitely be much increased hype with people hailing KJ as the "saviour", "messiah", etc, who lead the people out of 50 years of political wilderness. I won't be surprised Mr Brown does a comedy depicting KJ as Moses carrying two stones tablets talking face to face with a burning bush, and opposition voters as the Israelites who fled from the tyranny of the egyptians (the PAP).

Media will play it up to the fullest, and this time, the PAP will not stop them because of the simple reason that KJ is not JBJ and will in fact be the polar opposite.

How things evolve after that will then depend on the behaviour of the party in and out of parliament, whether they move forward to create an even stronger opposition, or they become another passing fad -- meaning, evolving into a second SPP -- meaning yet another one-man show, complacency, etc, all over again.

Of course all this is just speculation. Of all we know WP must be the one.

 

[Narong Wongwan]

Status quo will remain, before election all will get some type of GST/CPF handouts, majority of voters will forgive and forget and everything will be status quo. Small drama maybe that Potong Pasir will be lost.

 

[Perspective]

I think one GRC will be won, and the rest NCMP seats. Whether the status quo remains after that will depend on who wins.

Like it or not, RP under KJ may be the one winning that GRC. That is something we have to face and come to terms with. There will definitely be much increased hype with people hailing KJ as the "saviour", "messiah", etc, who lead the people out of 50 years of political wilderness. I won't be surprised Mr Brown does a comedy depicting KJ as Moses carrying two stones tablets talking face to face with a burning bush, and opposition voters as the Israelites who fled from the tyranny of the egyptians (the PAP).

Media will play it up to the fullest, and this time, the PAP will not stop them because of the simple reason that KJ is not JBJ and will in fact be the polar opposite.

How things evolve after that will then depend on the behaviour of the party in and out of parliament, whether they move forward to create an even stronger opposition, or they become another passing fad -- meaning, evolving into a second SPP -- meaning yet another one-man show, complacency, etc, all over again.

Of course all this is just speculation. Of all we know WP must be the one.

Actually the two GRC hot spots - WP one and Chiam/KJ one - gives rise to the additional fears of freak. Voters in the GRC contested by WP would be think that Chiam will win hence they vote PAP while vice versa. In the end both GRCs will not tip.

WP tried to play it too low-key to protect its credibility, but in the end, while it kept its credibility people's memories of it became vague after 4 years since 2006.

It doesn't matter if the pro-opposition feel WP is too quiet or even "seeking" PAP's "approval" - what matters is the fence-sitters would see it as fly-by-night, appearing with much impact after 4 years, if it makes impact. If no impact, also cannot make it. So whether WP makes an impact or not, its lose-lose.

Also with every opposition party growing while WP remains the same, it's thunder will be stolen. In the first place, WP hadn't gain much growth because it was too quiet and newbies looking to join the opposition didn't notice much out of it and chose others. It would be fielding very few candidates and this gives the MSM a perfect excuse to give it little coverage. Hence, WP won't gain any GRC.

Chiam is known to be old and the SDA infighting brings out the point that he is an old fogey who refuses to retire. At least LKY didn't have to fight and have spats with others to stay. But Chiam is that.

Kenneth is one of the worst gaffe-prone leaders i know and this pattern will emerge during the 10 day campaign and people will laugh. And if RP makes no impact its days are number because it is the most euphoric and behaves as if it has one GRC in the pocket already. The Chinese saying goes that the higher the hopes the bigger the disappointment of failure.

The two combined are not going to make a win. With some rumblings within RP of how unhappy they are with KJ for his haphazard leadership approach, RP looks to walk in the path of SDP in 1993 even if it wins. For RP now, it's a win also die, lose also die situation. RP won't last.

 

[lovesamleong]

Be interesting to see two or three GRC goes to opposition.

PAP still in power, but PAP cannot anyhow change law to enrich themselves aka legalized corruption for eg million dollar salary.

 

[GoldenDragon]

My guess - 1 GRC and 2-4 SMC to the Opposition. Bishan and Aljunied vulnerable. Potong Pasir and Hougang likely to be status quo. CST's wife should be able to pull thru by slimmest of margin.

 

[Sideswipe]

Nationwide votes swing will be in Oppositions favor so Mrs Chiam has a good chance of winning Potong Pasir. CST will remind PP voters - it's still the Chiams who are in charge, doesn't matter wife or husband. LTK should retain Hougang with increased majority - 65% max?

Can the Oppositions win 40% nationwide votes since 1963 elections? If they can hit 40%-42%, should win a new SMC or GRC.

 

[scroobal]

Agree on the RP prospect. Externally they have not put a foot wrong and they have been careful about bringing in tainted goods. They are likely to get votes way past 40%. Low and Chiam will still be in because they have cemented the underdog image in the eyes of Singaporeans. WP also has a stable approach to contesting elections and Sylvia has done well in parliament.

The PAP on the other has a dent in its image over a number of issues especially displacement of Singaporeans in the employment sector, the badly handled immigration policy and PAP's leaders "wah bodoh" attitude to students making significant and materials points about our society.

There is also the breakdown of the succession train. The son appears to have failed in grooming the next lot of leaders. When the PAP founders failed in first attempt of second generation leaders, they quickly went back to the drawing table and quickly brought in GCT, Tony Tan etc.

 

[Perspective]

Agree on the RP prospect. Externally they have not put a foot wrong and they have been careful about bringing in tainted goods. They are likely to get votes way past 40%. Low and Chiam will still be in because they have cemented the underdog image in the eyes of Singaporeans. WP also has a stable approach to contesting elections and Sylvia has done well in parliament.

Well RP had a terrorist among its ranks who was charged by USA courts and KJ as usual did not have the EQ to disassociate. Chiam is stepping out of PP and pulling in his wife making it a family plus the SDA spats puts the prospects at risk.

WP will surely retain Hougang. I predict 1 Hougang and 8 NCMPs. I can't say the same for Sylvia Lim - she is not incumbent like LTK and whether she has done well in Parliament is immaterial if that does is proportionally smaller than the number of days in a year. Filing a few impressive questions in Parliament is drowned out by the minister when it comes to headline news and even the pro-opposition do not read Hansard. There is not enough voters in the form of researchers and library staff - who actually read them - to win.

 

[Thick Face Black Heart]

PAP has bungled up huge since 2001 and cannot rectify that in time for the next GE. The foreigner + immigration issues will be the political hot potatoes. Estimate 10% nationwide vote swing against PAP.

The point is Chiam will contest with KJ separately or together, if they contest separately will they be able to get one GRC each, meaning two GRCs in total? That would immediately fill at least 9 MPs. Plus HG+PP, that will be at least 11 oppo MPs. I would say a good start.

Chiam will be less outspoken as usual so KJ will dominate the oppo and he will be hailed as the new Moses of the opposition, displacing Low, Chiam and Sylvia. That is something that can cut both ways. It is a wildcard that can have unpredictable results given KJ's unique "personality".

How things evolve will then depend on party performance after that.

Agree on the RP prospect. Externally they have not put a foot wrong and they have been careful about bringing in tainted goods. They are likely to get votes way past 40%. Low and Chiam will still be in because they have cemented the underdog image in the eyes of Singaporeans. WP also has a stable approach to contesting elections and Sylvia has done well in parliament.

The PAP on the other has a dent in its image over a number of issues especially displacement of Singaporeans in the employment sector, the badly handled immigration policy and PAP's leaders "wah bodoh" attitude to students making significant and materials points about our society.

 

[Thick Face Black Heart]

Kenneth is one of the worst gaffe-prone leaders i know and this pattern will emerge during the 10 day campaign and people will laugh. And if RP makes no impact its days are number because it is the most euphoric and behaves as if it has one GRC in the pocket already. The Chinese saying goes that the higher the hopes the bigger the disappointment of failure.

Actually it would be good for RP to suffer a disappointment in this election and learn the lesson the hard way, than to get a supernova euphoria right now and let it go all the way into their heads. With that sudden surge of adrenalin, I'm not sure if they can retain their perspective, to borrow your nick.

 

[Perspective]

Actually it would be good for RP to suffer a disappointment in this election and learn the lesson the hard way, than to get a supernova euphoria right now and let it go all the way into their heads. With that sudden surge of adrenalin, I'm not sure if they can retain their perspective, to borrow your nick.

Agree. However, it may not survive the disappointment. If it does, then it would be more on the right track. Better still if KJ is replaced by TT and others after 2011 GE.

 

[GoldenDragon]

Nationwide votes swing will be in Oppositions favor so Mrs Chiam has a good chance of winning Potong Pasir. CST will remind PP voters - it's still the Chiams who are in charge, doesn't matter wife or husband. LTK should retain Hougang with increased majority - 65% max?

Can the Oppositions win 40% nationwide votes since 1963 elections? If they can hit 40%-42%, should win a new SMC or GRC.

The younger generation, especially 1st time voters will be critical for both sides. Given what is being reported in the press, I sense they are not as kia see as their parents' generation. Being better educated, they are less likely to believe everything from the MIW. So, yes, this will be a watershed election.

 

[Narong Wongwan]

Come every elections everyone gets fired up and hopeful of a big swing and major drama but at the end of it all, its always status quo.
Aside from the 1991 'freak' results (that was almost 20 years ago mind you), every election result had been status quo. Blame it on the 66.6% of voters, this time round the ones to be blamed could be those newly minted pink ic holders.

 

[heartlander]

This has been said many times before, but I'll say it again. For all the talk of LKY's strategic foresight, one strategic failure of his was to overstay his PM tenure in the Cabinet. With his constant handholding and influence over national matters in an official capacity, the new generation of leaders have never really learned to figure out how to survive without him - politically, economically, and strategically. He should have relinquished all his official involvement and played mentor outside of government, which would have allowed new leaders to toughen up while still allowing himself to provide some limited guidance (though knowing LKY, his guidance would not have been that limited). The true test for the future PAP is to figure how to lead Singapore after a sudden, and not gradual, loss of LKY's guidance. The sooner the loss, the better for PAP's long term survival, because the electorate is only going to get more vocal with time.

 

[Robert Half]

Status quo will remain, before election all will get some type of GST/CPF handouts, majority of voters will forgive and forget and everything will be status quo. Small drama maybe that Potong Pasir will be lost.

I dun think there will be any handouts this time round

 

[Robert Half]

Come every elections everyone gets fired up and hopeful of a big swing and major drama but at the end of it all, its always status quo.
Aside from the 1991 'freak' results (that was almost 20 years ago mind you), every election result had been status quo. Blame it on the 66.6% of voters, this time round the ones to be blamed could be those newly minted pink ic holders.

1991 is not freak results. Back then people did want opposition members to be elected into parliament.

That year PAP also narrowly win Bukit Batok 51.8% 858 votes, Braddell Height 52.3% 1,169 votes and Eunos GRC 52.4% 4,160 votes

 

[cass888]

Like it or not, RP under KJ may be the one winning that GRC. That is something we have to face and come to terms with. There will definitely be much increased hype with people hailing KJ as the "saviour", "messiah", etc, who lead the people out of 50 years of political wilderness. I won't be surprised Mr Brown does a comedy depicting KJ as Moses carrying two stones tablets talking face to face with a burning bush, and opposition voters as the Israelites who fled from the tyranny of the egyptians (the PAP).

What's wrong with KJ? I don't like his policies, I consider them too leftist but at least you have a Cambridge educated gentleman going for the position rather than some two bit computer shop owner who can't even afford $13k to pay his deposit.

 

[jixiaolan]

WP will surely retain Hougang.

What make you so sure? In the event of Low walking out of Hougang, you tink who is most likely to takeover his place and what is the most likely result?