This news just came out a few days ago in ST and it is signalling some things to come in the years ahead.
"UNITED States financial services group Wachovia has sold its investment in City Developments' (CDL's) freehold Grange Road project at a hefty loss.
Warchovia first bought the Clivedan Condos at $3,750psf in 2007, now selling back to CDL at $2956 psf
(almost a 20% drop)."
The overseas funds already see no immediate short to medium term upside in Singapore residential market. They rather made a loss and withdraw their funds. CDL got to buy back from them to prevent them from dumping in the market and causing a stir in prices in the secondary market, as there are still unsold units in CDL's inventory. There is no resale market at all since the high prices are hit at SGD 3700-3900psf in 2008.
It also signal to us that we cannot simply assume that liquidity is going to continue flowing in like nobody business after QE3. Once these funds feel that US or Europe are showing early signs of picking up, they will br the first to pack and go, they won't care if they make losses. Can our bullish feverish sentiment continue to withstand a few more shocking pieces of similar headlines? And at SGD2900psf, it might not be the true price cos the developer supported it, it could be lower... I dun know how much lower but we are already seeing SGD2xxxpsf in the high end luxury range and they are freehold in best of locations.
If the normal Singaporean do not take heed and learn important lessons from what is happening at the top end of the market, I am worried. Cos at SGD1700 for 99 yr sky habitat transalates to freehold equivalent of SGD2040psf, not far from the high end luxury market, but already priced over the mid tier luxury in bukit timah.
lets face it, its not the architect or the developer of the project that make the property sells. Cos the same project by the same architect in a project opp Ritz Carlton is selling for only SGD1800-2000 in the resale market.
I really have to bow my head to the "marketing" of today, they have done so well as compared to years back. They are selling a lifestyle. But whethere there will be a resale market in 99 yr leasehold Sky Habitat at higher prices , I seriously doubt so.. Just look at those projects like Bishan 8, which hit a high of SGD1200psf in 1995-96, it is only till this date they they are able to break even, thanks to its "leasehold" and sky habitat which is selling at SGD500psf higher. So for sky habitat to break even or sell higher in the longer term (all the buyers are telling me we should hold long term view), u need another project to come in and sell at SGD 2200psf !!! or simply SGD 2640psf !!! for leasehold? for suburban? And so what if it does reach? if u are a sky habitat buyer at SGD1700psf, thr best u k is only breakeven.
Thats why I say there will be no resale market thereafter, cos interest rates are low, and buyers k still hold on to their units and might not sell at negative prices, and most likely due to the extra seller stamp duty..oh my, tat kinda of make me ask if the govt helping or making investors worse off by placing cones n barriers along the way up the property price ladder?
What happens when they reach the other end after ignoring the layers of barriers the govt put in place, what if they start to panic when things dun look right? There will be a chaos and probably stampede as they all rushed to cut loss or are forced to.. Cos these so called measures will not be removed in time to let them have a smooth exit.... i only see blood path. thanks to the scholars again.
By the way, its just my view anyway. Thought this is an ideal platform to just share some thoughts. no right and wrong.
"UNITED States financial services group Wachovia has sold its investment in City Developments' (CDL's) freehold Grange Road project at a hefty loss.
Warchovia first bought the Clivedan Condos at $3,750psf in 2007, now selling back to CDL at $2956 psf
(almost a 20% drop)."
The overseas funds already see no immediate short to medium term upside in Singapore residential market. They rather made a loss and withdraw their funds. CDL got to buy back from them to prevent them from dumping in the market and causing a stir in prices in the secondary market, as there are still unsold units in CDL's inventory. There is no resale market at all since the high prices are hit at SGD 3700-3900psf in 2008.
It also signal to us that we cannot simply assume that liquidity is going to continue flowing in like nobody business after QE3. Once these funds feel that US or Europe are showing early signs of picking up, they will br the first to pack and go, they won't care if they make losses. Can our bullish feverish sentiment continue to withstand a few more shocking pieces of similar headlines? And at SGD2900psf, it might not be the true price cos the developer supported it, it could be lower... I dun know how much lower but we are already seeing SGD2xxxpsf in the high end luxury range and they are freehold in best of locations.
If the normal Singaporean do not take heed and learn important lessons from what is happening at the top end of the market, I am worried. Cos at SGD1700 for 99 yr sky habitat transalates to freehold equivalent of SGD2040psf, not far from the high end luxury market, but already priced over the mid tier luxury in bukit timah.
lets face it, its not the architect or the developer of the project that make the property sells. Cos the same project by the same architect in a project opp Ritz Carlton is selling for only SGD1800-2000 in the resale market.
I really have to bow my head to the "marketing" of today, they have done so well as compared to years back. They are selling a lifestyle. But whethere there will be a resale market in 99 yr leasehold Sky Habitat at higher prices , I seriously doubt so.. Just look at those projects like Bishan 8, which hit a high of SGD1200psf in 1995-96, it is only till this date they they are able to break even, thanks to its "leasehold" and sky habitat which is selling at SGD500psf higher. So for sky habitat to break even or sell higher in the longer term (all the buyers are telling me we should hold long term view), u need another project to come in and sell at SGD 2200psf !!! or simply SGD 2640psf !!! for leasehold? for suburban? And so what if it does reach? if u are a sky habitat buyer at SGD1700psf, thr best u k is only breakeven.
Thats why I say there will be no resale market thereafter, cos interest rates are low, and buyers k still hold on to their units and might not sell at negative prices, and most likely due to the extra seller stamp duty..oh my, tat kinda of make me ask if the govt helping or making investors worse off by placing cones n barriers along the way up the property price ladder?
What happens when they reach the other end after ignoring the layers of barriers the govt put in place, what if they start to panic when things dun look right? There will be a chaos and probably stampede as they all rushed to cut loss or are forced to.. Cos these so called measures will not be removed in time to let them have a smooth exit.... i only see blood path. thanks to the scholars again.
By the way, its just my view anyway. Thought this is an ideal platform to just share some thoughts. no right and wrong.
There was a time when people in SG said its crazy to pay SGD700psf for leasehold condo, there was also a time when people in SG said its crazy to invest in MM (Mickey Mouse) studio that measures only 400sqf.
Now leasehold project like Sky Habitat hits SGD1700psf and MM like Alexis hits SGD2000psf .. yes these are outlier cases (anyway those familar with SG property will know these are not that extreme and the median price is not far from these numbers) but this goes to show sky (and not what the herd says) is the limit when it comes to property speculation/investment