Expect humdrum H1 for KL property market: report
Industry body chief says curbs have put rampant speculation to a stop
PUBLISHED JANUARY 15, 2014
[PETALING JAYA] The property market might need at least two years to digest and recover from the various cooling measures that came into effect this month, but expect it to surge again in 2016, say industry officials.
According to Malaysian Institute of Estate Agents president Siva Shanker, 2014 will be a tough year for sales, but the market may find its footing next year and catch the next upcycle in 2016.
"The market ground to a standstill after Budget 2014. There was a knee-jerk reaction in sales," Mr Shanker, who is also CEO-agency of property consultancy PPC International, told StarBiz, the business section of the Malaysian daily The Star. "It will probably stay in the doldrums for the first half of 2014. The second half may be better."
He believes that rampant speculation over the past few years in the primary market, resulting in "far more properties bought than needed", had been put to a stop by the new curbs.
"The days of 20-40 per cent appreciation in property prices after only a few years are over. It is no more a joy to speculate," he said.
Even so, he sees the secondary market, which he said had languished for years, regaining its lustre.
"A new launch in Bangsar could set you back RM1,500 (S$583) per square foot, compared to RM800-1,000 per sq ft for an existing property. The discount goes up to 50 per cent in some prime areas," he said.
An analyst with TA Research said that unlike previous years, many listed developers had held back on their 2014 sales targets - a departure from their usual forward guidance in December - until a clearer picture emerges from the effects of Budget 2014 and other tightening measures.
The exception is Mah Sing Group, which is aiming for a 20 per cent increase in sales this year to RM3.6 billion.
According to the analyst, policy uncertainty on several fronts - such as whether Iskandar Malaysia's Medini is exempt from real property gains tax, or the pricing of bank loans using the net selling price of a property - remains an overhang on the market.
"The sector's fundamentals are intact, but in terms of share prices, the catalysts are lacking," she said.
Property players have noticed a marked slowdown in sales since the various curbs were put in place, although it is unclear by how much.
A number of high-end launches were also shelved, as developers switch their focus to the affordable segment of the market, where demand is more resilient.
Some of the projects launched post-Budget 2014 include block B of YTL Land & Development's Fennel@Sentul East condominiums, which saw a take-up of 80 per cent soon after it was opened for sale in mid-November, while tower A and B of Sunway's Geo Residences were 85 per cent sold within two weeks, HwangDBS Vickers Research noted.
In Iskandar Malaysia, however, the response to UEM Sunrise's Almas Suites and WCT Holdings' Medini Signature Tower 2 have been lukewarm, Maybank IB Research said in a report last week.
CIMB Research is more upbeat. It expects buying interest to return in the first half of this year, albeit gradually. Hong Leong Investment Bank Research, which believes the market will stage a recovery in the second half of the year, advocates a buy-on-weakness strategy.
http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/pre...humdrum-h1-kl-property-market-report-20140115