Ah tiong land wins either way
Myanmar's coup against Aung San Suu Kyi puts China in a tricky spot. But there's also plenty to gain
By China correspondent
Bill Birtles
Posted 6hhours ago, updated 6hhours ago
After a tentative power sharing agreement, Myanmar's military toppled Aung San Suu Kyi's government and took control for at least one year.(AP: Aung Shine Oo)
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In all the coverage this week of the Myanmar military's arrest of leader Aung San Suu Kyi and formal seizure of power, the most curious headline came from an English article in China's state news agency Xinhua.
Calling it a "major cabinet reshuffle", Beijing urged all parties to "properly handle their differences" and "maintain political and social stability".
True to form, the state media then expressed a strong opinion of condemnation — not towards anyone in Myanmar, but
towards the United States for vowing sanctions on the nation's military.
Joe Biden has condemned the military's takeover from the civilian-led government and its
detention of Suu Kyi as "a direct assault on the country's transition to democracy and the rule of law".
Yet for China, the coup will likely present as much a risk as an opportunity. Beijing's caution in even calling it a coup reflects a desire to foster good relations with a military that has had a difficult past with China.
There is also a question over what China knew and when.
Speculation has swirled that Beijing may have known in advance about Monday's events, with State Counsellor Wang Yi having been the last foreign diplomat that Myanmar military leaders had formal contact with three weeks before they rolled the tanks onto the streets.
A coup disrupts China's long-held plans
Either way, China was already on a diplomatic roll with the civilian government led by Suu Kyi, who in recent years was a regular visitor to Beijing.
Ties between the two countries were considered good.
As Western nations increasingly shunned her over Myanmar's treatment of minority Rohingya Muslims, Suu Kyi turned to China for economic and diplomatic support.
China has long held influence in Myanmar, standing by the country's military dictatorship, but also working closely with Aung San Suu Kyi when she became leader.(Myanmar President Office Via Reuters)
China has since become the second biggest foreign investor in Myanmar after Singapore.
And even though Suu Kyi continued a suspension of a major $3.6 billion dam project that has been steeped in controversy for a decade, her government was courting Chinese investment for other major projects under Xi Jinping's 'Belt and Road' infrastructure initiative.
Now the 'reshuffle', as Beijing called it, creates some uncertainty even if Myanmar's military was never far from power.
One potential problem lies in the long-running tensions over Chinese support to former pro-Communist militias on the Burmese side of the border.
Experts say things will only be more difficult with the military back firmly in control. This is the same army that has been fighting these groups since Myanmar's independence.
There is also the recent election to consider, which overwhelmingly showed popular support for Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy.
The coup will once again put China in the unpopular position of having to shield the regime from Western diplomatic pressure while also trying to win support in Myanmar for sensitive and often unpopular infrastructure projects.
"I don't think the Chinese side is happy about this state of affairs," said Sebastian Strangio, the author of a new book about China's relations with South-East Asia.
"It scrambles up some long-laid plans and relationships that they've invested a lot of time and energy in."
An uncomfortable relationship of convenience
Oil pipelines, economic corridors and hydropower electricity generation makes Myanmar one of the most vital chess pieces in China's long-term strategic plans.
Aung San Suu Kyi was believed to be under house arrest after she was detained by the military in a coup on February 1.(AP: Sakchai Lalit)
The country's position on the Indian ocean would help China bypass a potential future US military shipping blockade in the Malacca Strait for oil and other resources.
The construction of a new deep-water port in the Bay of Bengal would have the added benefit of helping China thwart a rising Indian naval presence, particularly if the PLA Navy one day ends up rotating naval ships through what it says will be a 'commercial' port.
The deep institutional distrust that Myanmar's military harbours towards China harking back to the Cold War years would likely be on the minds of foreign policy officials in Beijing.
Experts say it could potentially affect the thinking on whether the military government reviews or even stalls the various Chinese projects underway.
But Western condemnation of the military's actions will likely ensure the uncomfortable relationship of convenience between Beijing and Naypyitaw continues to thrive.
Myanmar appeared to align itself with the West for several years, before the military shifted back to closer ties with China.(Reuters: Carlos Barria)
"The one advantage China has is that it's diplomatically flexible," Strangio said.
"The Western countries are forced to diplomatically condemn this coup, but China doesn't have to do that. It's pragmatic."
Posted 6hhours ago, updated 6hhours ago
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