My question to you is: Do you really know Iskandar? Or is your analysis based on reading newspapers and internet articles? Do you know where is Bukit Indah, Nusa Idaman, Sutera Utama, Molek, Permas Jaya, Mount Austin? How many times have you been to these places in the past year, if at all?
Property investment is not based on reading a few articles. If you want the macro view, I can give it to you as well. Economic growth rate in Iskandar will probably be at least twice of SG in the next 10-15 years. Will the gap widen or narrow in 10-15 years time? How do you think HSR and RTS will eventually impact Iskandar and SG? No one can say for sure, but people can start making educated guesses now.
The question on do I know Iskandar... Well, I have been into JB several times, but only studied it closely recently when I went to some of the places there. I've read numerous data and facts on Iskandar. I've heard the "good" parts of Iskandar commented by Malaysian developers/agents selling their properties, the IRDA, and from the buyers of Iskandar properties, especially those here (guess you're one of them). I've also weight in on the negative side of Iskandar mentioned by none other than our own dear Singapore government (whom I have much respect for!), Malaysian bank analysts, local and international property experts, local agents who have no vested interest to sell Iskandar properties, local smart investors... they all point to the very dull future of Iskandar for residential investment.
Is the above sufficient? If not, I dunno what else will be when I decide whether or not I will invest in Iskandar! To understand Iskandar better, am I supposed to barge into the office of the Iskandar authorities and ask to audit their land sales and master plan (if they even have a credible one!)??
I'm curious though. Yes, I've read newspapers and internet articles also. Which part in them is inaccurate about Iskandar? My views are not just based on them, of course. All those places you've mentioned, yes... I've been to some of them or heard about them. So what about them? What have they got to do with the discussion here?
"Economic growth rate in Iskandar will probably be at least twice of SG in the next 10-15 years. Will the gap widen or narrow in 10-15 years time?"
Now, where did you get this fact from? Can please quote for me so that I can go read it? Strange that whoever said this was so daring. You're dealing with a 3rd world country here and they are saying all these? I vaguely recall Malaysia has aims to be a 1st world country by 2020 or something like that. Bold aim. But seriously, it's only 5 years more to 2020. With all that is happening now, you want me to believe that?
Have they ever proven themselves to have improved economically and socially to even advance anywhere close to the 1st world status? Is the racial harmony and safety standards improving in the last 10 years? No.
So it's my turn to ask you: You believe everything the Malaysian authorities tell you about Iskandar?
Funny thing is, my close Malaysian friends also think like me and there are people in Singapore who can tell me, No no.. you don't understand about the "bright" future of Iskandar! :O
On "How do you think HSR and RTS will eventually impact Iskandar and SG?", I'd say, be careful how you interpret it. Did you ever question how HSR is going to impact residential apartments in Iskandar? People tend to jump to conclusion so quickly. Oh there's going to be a new high speed train. So Iskandar will prosper!!! So means I must buy my Iskandar condo and I will make $$$ through capital appreciation if I have "holding power" for 10-15 years!!!! Yeah!!!
Wait... Not so fast... Don't get so excited can?
Ask yourself: Who benefits most from the HSR if it is really built? HSR is not like MRT. It's not for common everyday travel. It's not for the layman to use every day. It doesn't stop near to where you live. It is not like our MRT which passes through Toa Payoh, Bishan, Ang Mo Kio residential areas and you only walk 5 minutes to your condo. It also will not cost S$1 to take a ride. How does HSR cause property prices in Iskandar to rise, may I ask?
And just so you know, the idea of building HSR is very shaky now. Both sides are questioning if it is economically viable. 5 years to build is an over-enthusiastic goal. It will take a very long time if it happens. Even so, by the time it comes, your Iskandar property price will still be stagnant or even go lower due to the huge oversupply. You will likely also lose through the ever-decreasing RM currency.
Don't be surprised if the HSR is totally scrapped or it only has 1 or 2 stops and it's not a HSR but a normal train.
You seriously still can't see this coming?
Ok you may say, wait wait... there's the RTS. That's like MRT. My response still is: Come on! Think harder! Does it still stop at every part of Iskandar? You think it will be a dense network like our MRT? By the way, where is the RTS now when even the HSR is so uncertain? They said RTS was supposed to be ready by 2018. Where's the plan now? So please don't throw me questions like "Do you know Iskandar's economy will be twice that of Singapore?", "Do you know Malaysia will be 1st world in 2020?", "Do you know RTS/HSR will cause Iskandar's condos to all increase in prices in 15 years time?" Big jokes!
On "No one can say for sure, but people can start making educated guesses now.", you said it yourself!
These are all "GUESSES". That's what I precisely think those who bought Iskandar properties (especially condos) after 2012 delude themselves with. When you guess at something which has little or no evidence, you are taking HUGE RISKS. Unless you tell me the building of HSR and RTS is already underway, there are already some big MNCs or businesses in Iskandar, it makes sense to be confident and go in to buy Iskandar properties. Those are all plain empty talks! Have you asked why are so many businesses, local or overseas, reluctant to enter Iskandar?
So I won't call it "educated" guesses. It's more of blind faith on a 3rd world country. It's perhaps not so bad when you enter in when prices are low. In life, you take a risk. Even if you lose, you lose small. Those who enter in after 2012, the prices you all bought are too high for comfort. You don't have any margin at all when you fail. Now that the Iskandar data are out, with super huge oversupply, not popular with businesses, dwindling economy, weakening RM currency, who still dare to go in and defend Iskandar?
Pardon me, but to me buying a property is a big thing. One better go in with eyes wide open, brains running intelligently, and with all the facts and figures plain in black-and-white for all to see. You want to enter through blind faith, believing what the Malaysian authorities tell you, I say, you are taking a very big risk!
Of course, some give the simplistic and ridiculous argument, well, I'm sure if you have "holding power", things MAY improve. Hold till when? 30 years time? 40, 50 years time? Life is short. No astute investor does investments in such a long time frame. What's the point of buying a property with so long and so much uncertainty? And only your grandchildren or great-grandchildren can enjoy, if that ever happens?
I'm also not interested in the case where one tells me, I'm rich what. I have holding power. The $300k Iskandar condo I bought doesn't mean much to me. This group of people can clearly buy whatever they want. But if you are a commoner or simple want to be a proper, smart astute investor in the street, seriously, admit to the fact that you are taking an unimaginably huge amount of risk if you still think Iskandar will be a safe investment.
I still hear some people hold on strongly to the idea that their >9,000 units Country Garden condo will be able to find tenant and will appreciate in price next time. Whoa... seriously.... don't cry when the condo is ready and you have no buyer, no tenant, while the bank constantly mail you to pay your monthly mortgage for the next 30 years. While the price of your condo drops in value along the way.
If any of you are still not convinced of how bad the real situation in investing in Iskandar, go talk to David Poh. You can find out who he is. Set up an appointment with him or attend one of his talks. All that I have written here so far is quite mild already. You go listen to him talk and tell you all the negative facts and figures about Iskandar.
I tell you, you will walk out of the room maybe shivering or can't sleep at night! Especially if you bought any condo in Iskandar thinking that it will make money for you.
