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Merging Hougang into AMK GRC will be LHL greatest masterstroke of all time !!!!
- Thread starter brocoli
- Start date
And by doing it,the PM is showing to the world he is the most ballsless PM in the world.
Even Myanmar under military junta rule recently held by-elections and Aung Sun Suu Kyi of the National League for Democracy (NLD) won 43 out of 45 seats under the SMC (1 to 1 contest).
No where in the world are elections held under the GRC (1 group to 1 group contest).What a joke !
Even Myanmar under military junta rule recently held by-elections and Aung Sun Suu Kyi of the National League for Democracy (NLD) won 43 out of 45 seats under the SMC (1 to 1 contest).
No where in the world are elections held under the GRC (1 group to 1 group contest).What a joke !
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bro,
in my humble opinion, the longer this BE drags, the worse off it'll be for the incumbent :p:p:p
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On the contrary, I would take it that PM Lee would be making his boldest move in trying to wrestle back Hougang SMC.
However, personally, such "bravado" move is neither politically savvy nor necessary. The win or loss of Hougang SMC neither threaten PAP's ruling party's status nor critical to PM Lee's own mandate. To risk PM Lee's position for a SMC like Hougang doesn't make any political sense at all. The ROI of such risky move doesn't make sense.
Even if PM Lee really won Hougang through such gerrymandering, it will not look good for PAP as well; it will lose the moral high ground altogether.
Goh Meng Seng
However, personally, such "bravado" move is neither politically savvy nor necessary. The win or loss of Hougang SMC neither threaten PAP's ruling party's status nor critical to PM Lee's own mandate. To risk PM Lee's position for a SMC like Hougang doesn't make any political sense at all. The ROI of such risky move doesn't make sense.
Even if PM Lee really won Hougang through such gerrymandering, it will not look good for PAP as well; it will lose the moral high ground altogether.
Goh Meng Seng
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Having said about the PAP's or rather, PM's risky thought, I do not think WP should be over confident in Hougang even if it stays as single ward.
YSL was riding on WP's overall branding during GE2011 and there is an urgency for voters to "unite" in order to make sure that there is at least one elected opposition MP in parliament if LTK's bid in Aljunied failed. Thus, with all these considerations, what YSL garnered in Hougang is the MAXIMUM votes WP could get in Hougang and this is in line with the observation from Presidential Elections that PAP has a die hard support level of 35% on the average.
WP's vote count in Hougang will only go down during this by-election, even if it is just remain as SMC. There is no urgency to vote WP to make sure that there is opposition MP in parliament but the middle ground voters would consider to take this opportunity to "teach WP a lesson". On top of that, WP's selected candidate is not that fantastic at all; neither charismatic nor popularly known.
Most importantly, WP's candidate selection process will be doubted with Yaw-gate, coupled with the credibility issue on the ministerial pay MX9 debate and doubts arising from the plagiarisms by the two MPs. These are things and issues which might sway the middle ground.
The vote swing against WP could be anywhere between 5% to 10%, even if it is just Desmond Choo representing PAP. If PAP send a stronger candidate, it is anybody's guess what will happen then.
If PAP really merge Hougang with AMK GRC, the swing in the middle ground might go both ways, depending on how the battle is conducted. It also depends on whether WP could put up a decent strong team, at least comparable to East Coast Team in GE2011. But with the loss of Eric Tan and Fazly, couple with the fact that Gerald Giam would not be able to participate lest he is willing to give up his NCMP seat, I really doubt WP could put up a good team. Koh CY and Lilian might be asked to contest but lacking a strong matured anchor or leader, it is going to be a real tough fight.
I am surprised neither John Yam nor Poh LG are considered for Hougang candidacy. But they could still contribute to the AMK team if needed. The key, however, lies in finding a good Indian candidate.
Of course, the possibility of a 3 or even multi-corner fight cannot be ruled out. Especially so when Hougang was absorbed into AMK, it is just like MK GRC. The same reason/excuse WP (members and supporters) used in justifying the intrusion into MK will apply to the new combined GRC. This is even so when the bigger chunk belongs to AMK while Hougang will become the minority inclusion.
PAP might just win in this new combined GRC but it will lose its moral high ground in being perceived as "playing dirty" with such gerrymandering.
Goh Meng Seng
YSL was riding on WP's overall branding during GE2011 and there is an urgency for voters to "unite" in order to make sure that there is at least one elected opposition MP in parliament if LTK's bid in Aljunied failed. Thus, with all these considerations, what YSL garnered in Hougang is the MAXIMUM votes WP could get in Hougang and this is in line with the observation from Presidential Elections that PAP has a die hard support level of 35% on the average.
WP's vote count in Hougang will only go down during this by-election, even if it is just remain as SMC. There is no urgency to vote WP to make sure that there is opposition MP in parliament but the middle ground voters would consider to take this opportunity to "teach WP a lesson". On top of that, WP's selected candidate is not that fantastic at all; neither charismatic nor popularly known.
Most importantly, WP's candidate selection process will be doubted with Yaw-gate, coupled with the credibility issue on the ministerial pay MX9 debate and doubts arising from the plagiarisms by the two MPs. These are things and issues which might sway the middle ground.
The vote swing against WP could be anywhere between 5% to 10%, even if it is just Desmond Choo representing PAP. If PAP send a stronger candidate, it is anybody's guess what will happen then.
If PAP really merge Hougang with AMK GRC, the swing in the middle ground might go both ways, depending on how the battle is conducted. It also depends on whether WP could put up a decent strong team, at least comparable to East Coast Team in GE2011. But with the loss of Eric Tan and Fazly, couple with the fact that Gerald Giam would not be able to participate lest he is willing to give up his NCMP seat, I really doubt WP could put up a good team. Koh CY and Lilian might be asked to contest but lacking a strong matured anchor or leader, it is going to be a real tough fight.
I am surprised neither John Yam nor Poh LG are considered for Hougang candidacy. But they could still contribute to the AMK team if needed. The key, however, lies in finding a good Indian candidate.
Of course, the possibility of a 3 or even multi-corner fight cannot be ruled out. Especially so when Hougang was absorbed into AMK, it is just like MK GRC. The same reason/excuse WP (members and supporters) used in justifying the intrusion into MK will apply to the new combined GRC. This is even so when the bigger chunk belongs to AMK while Hougang will become the minority inclusion.
PAP might just win in this new combined GRC but it will lose its moral high ground in being perceived as "playing dirty" with such gerrymandering.
Goh Meng Seng
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Hougang can go into Aljunied but not into AMK. LHL won't risk such a immoralising (note, immoralising, not demoralising) move. WP is sure to win whether Hougang remains SMC or incorporated into Aljunied for GRC BE. That's the biggest risk LHL can contemplate since Hougang TC has been merged into Aljunied and he has reasonably acceptable moral ground to stand on. Yes, the question is the margin.
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yes, u r right. ah huat is no way as notorious as u. yes ah huat very stupid not to use internet to piss off singaporeans in order to be known to all. so stupid to go house to house visit yesterday night at blk 326 with another 5 useless people wearing that stupid blue hammer polo till 10pm hor... he shd used your grand GE2011 method, and come here to this forum to kpkb.
how you know?
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Don't forget GMS kong wa see ISD agent. Nelson was removed from office. How to be a MIW?
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