Medini (Nusajaya) Community

[tstar]

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/living-without-money-nearly-half-082400100.html

one reason that there is an oversupply is that the malaysian and china developers seriously overestimate the buying power of the average households.

maybe they estimate that overall at least half of households have money to buy a property at a much more affordable price as retirement homes. so cheap. why not grab?

To many overseas people, this is indeed the impression.

but statiatics seem to suggest otherwise and as a forumer suggested indeed..

salary earners know this very well. rich people probably do not.

"nearly half households have little savings and live from paycheck to paycheck. "

in this case, where to get money to buy properties wherever it is located and no matter how cheap it is?

As I always recommend that investors should visit the site before deciding, your visit is commendable. That is the right way. It is a lot better than those who refuse to visit the site and listen only to the salesmen.

Medini or rather Iskandar started with "intention to lure investors", and the target market is never locals. I do know the Encorp condos in PH had roadshows in Hong Kong, Indonesia, Vietnam and Singapore when they were launched. The locals only had 3 floors allocated for them in Tower 2. They didn't even bother to market any in Malaysia for Tower 1 then. I couldn't buy any other floors other than these 3 floors. Maybe after 3 mths sale, then the remaining ones would be opened for release. Anyway it is 100% sold, so it is not an issue.

Connectivity from Singapore will remain an issue. The ferry CIQ is there. Malaysia ferries are running but not to Singapore. Malaysia recognised this and Iskandar is moving ahead with or without Singapore. I read somewhere they are now planning to link Danga Bay to Forest City with ferries with a stop at PH. With common CG as developer on both project, this should be easily implemented. The Chinese are coming, like it or not, the boom would be dependent on them. It is not going to be dependent on Singapore authorities, though its investors would like to have the linkages. Even if eventually Forest City plus those in Danga Bay or PC, a low occupancy of say 30%, in terms of numbers it is still a big figure. Moreso, the HSR will link from KL and up north bringing tourists up and down. The stop gap measure of linking JB to Gemas electric double railway track and to the existing KL/ Padang Besar (Thailand border) track is scheduled to be completed in 2 years time. Maybe not as fast as HSR, but still very comfortable train ride.

Singapore will not stay on the sideline to see the other side flourishing. It will eventually think of a way to pull the crowd over. How Iskandar respond will be intersting to watch then.

 

[westman]

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/living-without-money-nearly-half-082400100.html

one reason that there is an oversupply is that the malaysian and china developers seriously overestimate the buying power of the average households.

maybe they estimate that overall at least half of households have money to buy a property at a much more affordable price as retirement homes. so cheap. why not grab?

To many overseas people, this is indeed the impression.

but statiatics seem to suggest otherwise and as a forumer suggested indeed..

salary earners know this very well. rich people probably do not.

"nearly half households have little savings and live from paycheck to paycheck. "

in this case, where to get money to buy properties wherever it is located and no matter how cheap it is?

Good point.

I AM very concern with the way things goes... In China.. there are many ghost city... shopping malls with ZERO commercial activity and zero resident....

I am seeing a repeative pattern now at Iskandar. I hate to say this bur it warrant some merit.. it took SG 50 years to achieve what it is today.. can Iskandar project do so at a lower number of years? Where will the residents/investor from? KL? Penang? Foreigners?

IMHO, If income level dont raise nation wide.. it will be a challenging goal to be.

 

[freekazoid]

Once at an event, I had the chance to sat with foreign economists. Then there this local sg guy brought up ghost city of china and how concern he was (no idea why...none of our business if you ask me). Economist wasnt able to share the same concern of over-building...instead explained in economic, infrastructure development is always positive.

Beside...do some home work on and form own judgement. The dynamics of china ghost cities vs Medini has very little in common. If they were....PH would be deserted even as we speak....or check location china satelite city are friggin far...we talking 200km.


Read this to get different perspective.

http://www.vagabondjourney.com/5-chinese-ghost-cities-came-alive/

"But when a Chinese “ghost city” does fill up with people and businesses it inconspicuously falls off the radar of the dominant international media. It becomes a regular city, mashed into China’s broader urban matrix — a success story that few seem interested in hearing about. We are amused by empty streets, vacant shopping malls, and barren financial districts in China, not budding new cities steadily coming to life. Ex-ghost cities are rarely news."

 

[freekazoid]

30 doctors is rental demand? Big win? You are freakier than I thought, they could be Malaysian Johorean doctors, so what are you talking about big win? Really nothing to hope for and clutching at straws.

I've been following institutions/enterprises demographic (management and customers demographics).....added 30 docs for a start is very big wins....clutch the straws guys....the best planned community in Msia is about to start...

 

[westman]

Once at an event, I had the chance to sat with foreign economists. Then there this local sg guy brought up ghost city of china and how concern he was (no idea why...none of our business if you ask me). Economist wasnt able to share the same concern of over-building...instead explained in economic, infrastructure development is always positive.

Beside...do some home work on and form own judgement. The dynamics of china ghost cities vs Medini has very little in common. If they were....PH would be deserted even as we speak....or check location china satelite city are friggin far...we talking 200km.


Read this to get different perspective.

http://www.vagabondjourney.com/5-chinese-ghost-cities-came-alive/

"But when a Chinese “ghost city” does fill up with people and businesses it inconspicuously falls off the radar of the dominant international media. It becomes a regular city, mashed into China’s broader urban matrix — a success story that few seem interested in hearing about. We are amused by empty streets, vacant shopping malls, and barren financial districts in China, not budding new cities steadily coming to life. Ex-ghost cities are rarely news."

To fillup 700k population for Forest City is really an ambitious goal..

Where can we find 700k?

 

[freekazoid]

To fillup 700k population for Forest City is really an ambitious goal..

Where can we find 700k?

Haven't have a slightest idea.....the chinese apparently have the approach, experience, data, principles, support from federal/state gov, and deep pocket...i just want to watch and learn.

Or they dont have the slightest idea too...and doing so for bigger national objective. Like currency manipulation (keep yuan low), one way is keen the outflow of yuan in investing at main trading country...Malaysia is top 10 trading country with China. Just look at data how much the chinese buy up US...if this same strategy apply to Msia....its a formidable economic force...and disruptive in every ways....include a nice video on currency manipulation.

Back to Medini and not point towards you westman. Ghost city similar to china type claim is baseless....at it worst....is what mpan described on that fine Friday....half of the shops closed...pockets of peoples and activities...food sux...not impressive. That is rock bottom....things will inch up from here...


[video=youtube;Qy1V7tWpTGY]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qy1V7tWpTGY[/video]

 

[Tekkun]

To fillup 700k population for Forest City is really an ambitious goal..

Where can we find 700k?

Assuming there are 4 person per house, it equate to 175,000 units spread over 25 years as Forest City take 25 years to develop.
Which means it is 7000 units per year. Possible?

Worst case scenario, Forest City can't sell well, they managed to sell 85,000 units. CG is not stupid to build 175,000 at one go. They will build progressively. They are not going to build a ghost city when it is evident there are no takers. In the end, Iskandar gains as CG had poured in money to reclaim land and to build the infrastructure. Personally speaking, I would prefer this is the scenario.
Too high density is not good.

But it is crystal ball gazing. It will still depend on how Chinese do things. I do not think CG want to build just residentials. They will want to build a integrated business center for China in Malaysia. Just like Royal Albert Dock, where they are building a mini city for Chinese to work, trade and live outside London.

http://www.theguardian.com/artandde...property-developers-london-developments-mipim

 

[eric3417]

Won't be surprised to see a Casino in FC.

 

[Tekkun]

Won't be surprised to see a Casino in FC.

I wouldn't be surprised if a cruise terminal is there for floating casinos. China > Forest City (Chinese 2nd homes) via cruise liners.
Day dreaming..la.

 

[westman]

Haven't have a slightest idea.....the chinese apparently have the approach, experience, data, principles, support from federal/state gov, and deep pocket...i just want to watch and learn.

Or they dont have the slightest idea too...and doing so for bigger national objective. Like currency manipulation (keep yuan low), one way is keen the outflow of yuan in investing at main trading country...Malaysia is top 10 trading country with China. Just look at data how much the chinese buy up US...if this same strategy apply to Msia....its a formidable economic force...and disruptive in every ways....include a nice video on currency manipulation.

Back to Medini and not point towards you westman. Ghost city similar to china type claim is baseless....at it worst....is what mpan described on that fine Friday....half of the shops closed...pockets of peoples and activities...food sux...not impressive. That is rock bottom....things will inch up from here...


[video=youtube;Qy1V7tWpTGY]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qy1V7tWpTGY[/video]

No worries...
The situation is pretty bleak now.
1Medini VP and i only saw 3 units light up last sun evening.

I think the issue here is not about China developer but balancing demand and supply.

This reminds me about a Game by the name of Simcity. In the game, residential units will be "abandoned" if they cannot fulfill the needs of industrial / commericial within reasonable distance and space.

If you pay attention to all advertisement for Iskandar projects.. proximity with Singapore consistantly mentioned. Sibei sian keep seeing this as it seem to display a lack of confident to drive demand with Johore/MY. IMHO to fill up 700k, it effectively means mass placement of 2 to 3% of Malaysia population (based on 2015 population size) to FC. Can this done? I seriously doubt.

Can there be sufficent jobs for residents of FC? Even if yes, will it be enough quality jobs to match the lifestyle of FC?

Emotionally, I hope it will happened while the logical part of me say this to me.. wait long long.. it will happened.

 

[Tekkun]

No worries...
The situation is pretty bleak now.
1Medini VP and i only saw 3 units light up last sun evening.

I think the issue here is not about China developer but balancing demand and supply.

This reminds me about a Game by the name of Simcity. In the game, residential units will be "abandoned" if they cannot fulfill the needs of industrial / commericial within reasonable distance and space.

If you pay attention to all advertisement for Iskandar projects.. proximity with Singapore consistantly mentioned. Sibei sian keep seeing this as it seem to display a lack of confident to drive demand with Johore/MY. IMHO to fill up 700k, it effectively means mass placement of 2 to 3% of Malaysia population (based on 2015 population size) to FC. Can this done? I seriously doubt.

Can there be sufficent jobs for residents of FC? Even if yes, will it be enough quality jobs to match the lifestyle of FC?

Emotionally, I hope it will happened while the logical part of me say this to me.. wait long long.. it will happened.

You know why people are not bothered? Cos it is a 25 year project. A very long wait. So no one is going to pay attention.

 

[westman]

Assuming there are 4 person per house, it equate to 175,000 units spread over 25 years as Forest City take 25 years to develop.
Which means it is 7000 units per year. Possible?

Worst case scenario, Forest City can't sell well, they managed to sell 85,000 units. CG is not stupid to build 175,000 at one go. They will build progressively. They are not going to build a ghost city when it is evident there are no takers. In the end, Iskandar gains as CG had poured in money to reclaim land and to build the infrastructure. Personally speaking, I would prefer this is the scenario.
Too high density is not good.

But it is crystal ball gazing. It will still depend on how Chinese do things. I do not think CG want to build just residentials. They will want to build a integrated business center for China in Malaysia. Just like Royal Albert Dock, where they are building a mini city for Chinese to work, trade and live outside London.

http://www.theguardian.com/artandde...property-developers-london-developments-mipim

The China Chinese ways of doing thing is scary.

Greenland, rank #3 has ita rating downgraded due the risk of defaul increases.

CG was ranked #6. If you go and read up their cashflow statement.. also not very good.

R&F, ranked #10, same as well.

All 3 as mentioned above face the same challenge. expand rapidly via overseas hoping to rake in revenue to cover the shortfall as induced by slow domestic sales. If sales revenues not able to catch up fast enough with the expansion rate... the bond BOMB will explored if things dont improved in China or overseas projects dont move fast enough.

My take...If the root gone/weak... trunks/leaves will collaspe as well.

 

[Tekkun]

The China Chinese ways of doing thing is scary.

Greenland, rank #3 has ita rating downgraded due the risk of defaul increases.

CG was ranked #6. If you go and read up their cashflow statement.. also not very good.

R&F, ranked #10, same as well.

All 3 as mentioned above face the same challenge. expand rapidly via overseas hoping to rake in revenue to cover the shortfall as induced by slow domestic sales. If sales revenues not able to catch up fast enough with the expansion rate... the bond BOMB will explored if things dont improved in China or overseas projects dont move fast enough.

My take...If the root gone/weak... trunks/leaves will collaspe as well.

I hope I am wrong. The way I see it is all these developers are having problems in China.
The only way to justify on going bank loans / high gear is through continuous construction activities. The bigger, the better and the more monstrous, even better.
However, China is going through a phase of global acquisitions from technology firms, constructions, real estate, oil & gas and even automotive through private and state sponsorships. Therefore it is unlikely to fail in all these areas.
Then again, I am a a very kiasi investor. I rather make lesser and be parasitic than to get directly involved with them.
I hope I am wrong too.

 

[Tekkun]

The Chinese are doing it again, pouring US$2.0 billion into Bandar Malaysia (the HSR Terminal land)

http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/ar...-rm8b-hub-1mdbs-bandar-malaysia-boost-economy

 

[freekazoid]

Mah Sing Group Berhad (Mah Sing) recently held a topping-up ceremony for the Group’s The Meridin@Medini integrated project in Johor.
http://www.propertyguru.com.my/prop...ampaign=dailynews-21Mar2016&utm_content=links

 

[westman]

I hope I am wrong. The way I see it is all these developers are having problems in China.
The only way to justify on going bank loans / high gear is through continuous construction activities. The bigger, the better and the more monstrous, even better.
However, China is going through a phase of global acquisitions from technology firms, constructions, real estate, oil & gas and even automotive through private and state sponsorships. Therefore it is unlikely to fail in all these areas.
Then again, I am a a very kiasi investor. I rather make lesser and be parasitic than to get directly involved with them.
I hope I am wrong too.

Agree with your observation... that how the chinese operates by playing bigger when things going against them...

First hand Bet 1k, lose
Second hand Bet 2k, hope to recoup 1k if win. Lose
Third hand bet 4k, hope to recoup 3k if win...lose

Keep doubling up... typical gambler mentality..

 

[westman]

Mah Sing Group Berhad (Mah Sing) recently held a topping-up ceremony for the Group’s The Meridin@Medini integrated project in Johor.
http://www.propertyguru.com.my/prop...ampaign=dailynews-21Mar2016&utm_content=links

Nice milestone reached

 

[mpan12]

No worries...
The situation is pretty bleak now.
1Medini VP and i only saw 3 units light up last sun evening.

I think the issue here is not about China developer but balancing demand and supply.

If you pay attention to all advertisement for Iskandar projects.. proximity with Singapore consistantly mentioned. Sibei sian keep seeing this as it seem to display a lack of confident to drive demand with Johore/MY. IMHO to fill up 700k, it effectively means mass placement of 2 to 3% of Malaysia population (based on 2015 population size) to FC. Can this done? I seriously doubt.

Good to note that you have realized it now. It has been bleak after 2013 when news broke out about the unimaginably huge oversupply of properties in Iskandar (including Medini). Many Singaporeans who rushed in probably didn't consider this fact carefully.

I took a walk recently as mentioned and I can say it's not just bleak. It's extremely bad moving forward.

I walked past 1Medini also and even with one glance, you can tell the whole place is mostly unoccupied. It's so quiet there! You can hear crickets and birds chirping.

Fast forward 2 years from now, when the other condos like Iskandar Residences beside it and the thousand others scattered all over are ready, it will be worse.

It's not only the advertisements saying Singapore is very near Iskandar. They will inevitably say also it takes only 15 minutes to go from SG to Iskandar! Haha... This is true maybe if you are stationed in Tuas or Woodlands with a helicopter and you don't have to clear customs. By car or bus, it's typically 1.5 hours or more.

The problem is the very poor planning by the Iskandar authorities. It's their greed. They created so much land, whichever developer came, they sold it. Then they turned around and said Medini was never meant to be for property investment! Whoa, if I were an investor, I would lose all confidence immediately. What sort of assurance is that?

There is simply too much land in Medini. Despite the many condos being built, you can still see surrounding them many bare land. I can't see traffic coming, despite what some say "things will improve in a few years time". Really? How so?

I told my friend to give up his Medini condo to cut losses asap.

 

[freekazoid]

Good to note that you have realized it now. It has been bleak after 2013 when news broke out about the unimaginably huge oversupply of properties in Iskandar (including Medini). Many Singaporeans who rushed in probably didn't consider this fact carefully.

I took a walk recently as mentioned and I can say it's not just bleak. It's extremely bad moving forward.

I walked past 1Medini also and even with one glance, you can tell the whole place is mostly unoccupied. It's so quiet there! You can hear crickets and birds chirping.

Fast forward 2 years from now, when the other condos like Iskandar Residences beside it and the thousand others scattered all over are ready, it will be worse.

It's not only the advertisements saying Singapore is very near Iskandar. They will inevitably say also it takes only 15 minutes to go from SG to Iskandar! Haha... This is true maybe if you are stationed in Tuas or Woodlands with a helicopter and you don't have to clear customs. By car or bus, it's typically 1.5 hours or more.

The problem is the very poor planning by the Iskandar authorities. It's their greed. They created so much land, whichever developer came, they sold it. Then they turned around and said Medini was never meant to be for property investment! Whoa, if I were an investor, I would lose all confidence immediately. What sort of assurance is that?

There is simply too much land in Medini. Despite the many condos being built, you can still see surrounding them many bare land. I can't see traffic coming, despite what some say "things will improve in a few years time". Really? How so?

I told my friend to give up his Medini condo to cut losses asap.

On your account before and up 2013 it was non-bleak? I understand in the period 2011-2013 there're plenty of sales, marketing, poster, advertisement, news, blogs, and many people talks about it. Your sentiment is influence by marketing activities and sales talk.

After 2013, numerous sporting events been held, pinewoods had completed number of projects, universities students increase by the year, universities annual enrollment drive intensified of previous years, Marlborough take up rate consistently rise, frost move in to Medini, Huawei move in to Medini, gleneagles opened, somerset opened.....that is that how so, you looking at wrong place my friend.

 

[James Porn]

Read this and make your own call or judgement if you will:

http://www.khaliladis.com/blog/three-reasons-to-invest-in-medini-in-2016