MBT will win 70% votes in Tampines...

[kojakbt]

Ling's performance is good example on the importance of showing a cool front in front of voters. Its applies universally.

Yes, my point is, if someone makes a big boo boo regardless of which party he or she is from, the votes can drop drastically.

Irene Ng just made another, in my view, a boo boo. She helped a foreigner to get PR, presumably at the meet the people session and the foreigner, who appeared to have got his PR, thanked her on facebook.

http://www.temasekreview.com/2010/0...g-for-helping-indonesian-obtain-singapore-pr/

You won't see this kind of news on 151st for sure... LOL!

Anyway, "mistakes" made by Irene and gang should help Meng Seng...

 

[kojakbt]

2001 GE:
<table width="100%" bgcolor="#dddddd" border="0" cellpadding="5" cellspacing="1"><tbody><tr bgcolor="#efefef"><td valign="top" align="left">Tampines
(125,432)</td> <td align="left">Abdul Rahim Bin Osman
Foo Kok Wah
Neo Ting Wei
Sebastian Teo K H
Yip Yew Weng <hr size="1"> Mah Bow Tan
Ng Phek Hoong Irene
Ong Kian Min
Sin Boon Ann
Yatiman B Yusof </td> <td valign="top">

SDA




<hr size="1"> PAP​

</td> <td valign="top">

31,231




<hr size="1"> 85,915​

</td> <td valign="top">

26.66




<hr size="1"> 73.34​

</td></tr></tbody></table>
2006 GE:

<table width="100%" bgcolor="#dddddd" border="0" cellpadding="5" cellspacing="1"><tbody><tr bgcolor="#d7ebff"><td valign="top" align="left" bgcolor="#d0ebdc">Tampines
(126,163)</td> <td align="left" bgcolor="#d0ebdc">Abdul Rahman B Mohamad
Lim Tung Hee Arthero
Ng Say Eng
Ong Hock Siong
Tan Lead Shake
<hr size="1"> Mah Bow Tan
Masagos Zulkifli B M M
Ng Phek Hoong Irene
Ong Kian Min
Sin Boon Ann
</td> <td valign="top" bgcolor="#d0ebdc">

SDA




<hr size="1"> PAP​

</td> <td valign="top" bgcolor="#d0ebdc">

36,948




<hr size="1"> 80,376​

</td> <td valign="top" bgcolor="#d0ebdc">

31.49




<hr size="1"> 68.51​

</td></tr></tbody></table>

 

[aurvandil]

Lui was involved in YOG? I tot it's vivian and teo ser luck?

This is a hypothesis of mine.

Supporting the hypothesis is that the file in TR's report mentioned MDA which is under the rear admiral.

Previously, MDA took a relatively liberal approach to free speech.

Recently however, MDA has become somewhat hardline.

For example we have the criminal defamation of Alan Shandrake. The case was initiated by MDA. Now we have two cases where MDA initiated against bloggers for what they posted on the Internet.

DPM Wong is one of the old gaurd from Prime Minister Goh's era. There have been repeated rumours that he will be stepping down soon.

Taken together, this increasinginly looks like a job application for the powerful post of Minister of Home Affairs. The torrent of online criticism about the YOG provided Minister Liu with the perfect opportunity to showcase his talents and skills.

If Minister Liu manages to intimidate and silence everyone, then I think that there would be no oppostion to him becoming Minister of Home Affairs.

Beyong becoming Minister of Home Affairs, Minister Balakrishnan has been severely weakened beacuse of the YOG. If Minister Liu can step up now, it is likely he will displace Minister Balakrishnan as a leading contender to be the next PM of Singapore.

 

[jw5]

Dear JW5,

When such a result comes up, I would have to assess whether it is due to general vote swing against opposition or just something else.

If it is just Tampines that score below the general vote swing then I will have to take personal responsibility of my team's bad showing, i.e. I will quit as the leader of my party. If the result is extremely bad (substantial percentage below general vote swing) then I guess I will have to quit politics altogether.

Of course, all these scenarios are based on the presumption that the election is fair and no irregularities or doubtful practices exist.

Goh Meng Seng

Thanks for your reply.
My opinion is that if you get a similar % to other opposition candidates, you should try again, whatever the %. But if the other guys are getting 40 to 45%, and you get 25 or 30%, all other things being constant, you and your team should certainly consider the reasons. This is not a prediction or even guess, purely hypothetical.

You may not recall, but after 2006, you were a little downcast, and there were many people in the then delphi forum persuading you to stand again. Being one of those people, glad that you are going to.

One thing you (and probably most of us here) have to accept is that there will always be people who support pap, people who support opposition, and even people who support opposition but against you. For me, I'm an opposition supporter, not necessarily an opposition party supporter, especially when the government lacks accountability to the people.

So if the day ever comes when one of the miw is interrogating you why you spent $5 Billion on the Olympics, I may be supporting him.

 

[IR123]

Dear IR123,

Well, it is not uncommon for candidates to change ground and tactic at the very last moment. Just like JBJ switching from Kampong Glam to Cheng San in 1997.

The poll rating is REAL to PAP. 70%, that is what I was told, even though the data may be slightly old. But knowing MBT, he will still work hard on the ground, no doubt about it.

I do have dispute with the poll rating of 70% though. It is a national trend, due to demographic change, the decline in support of about 5% for PAP will be felt each and every elections from now on. For the next two elections, it may not risk losing power altogether but nobody can guarantee what will happen after 2015. Even LKY himself has admitted that uncertainties lie ahead for PAP beyond the third elections from now.

Many people misread my message here. I expect NSP in Tampines to win at least 36%. That is the minimum votes we should get. Whether we could win or not, depends on a lot on other factors.

Goh Meng Seng

Well, I could be wrong and anyway I make no claims to infallibility.

At least you are actively campaigning.

 

[phouse3]

Here is the Ling's story.

Ling How Doong story is one of luck, accidents and mediocrity. He got the seat in Bt Gombak because of Seet Ai Mei washing hands debacle and very much due to her false persona. Ling having won the seat ended being told what to to do instead of looking after his voters. Imagine an incumbent holding a seat and garnering only 28.4% of the votes, massive swing for any incumbent.

Yes, it was a 3 cornered fight but Mohd Farid from SPP only got about 1,600 votes while PAP fielded Ang Mo Seng whose charisma was basically nil. This was one case where a 3 cornered fight did not split the votes by any stretch of the imagination. It was indeed a shocking result. I would have venture that Ling was not only the contributing factor. The party has to take responsibility for putting family members on Gombak payroll.

It was clear the backlash was due to Ling's conduct. Taking solace by claiming a 3rd cornered fight is being mischievious and dishinest.

You are daft and dishonest - for the 2nd time.

I clearly mentioned Chiam's guy lost his deposit. Of course I know his miserable results. I certainly did not imply he split the votes. I mentioned it to show how quarrelsome some opposition can be. Obviously the votes went to the PAP guy to prove my point that quarrel is bad. Chiam's vote at Potong Pasir fell from 69.6% to 55%. A massive swing of 15%. (There could be other reasons.)

And please do not swing like a monkey. We are comparing the swing from 2006, definitely not 3 elections back from 1997. So please don't swing so far back like a gorilla.

Ling scored only 22.8% in 2006. Anyone with half a brain would guess the next candidate can do better even if he or she doesn't campaign. Ask the young guy Alex Tan. Even he knows this fact.

Ling is MIA whereas Chiam still wants to fight. So whose result is more relevant.

I am not from SDP. I am just asking a bit more honesty in the postings.

 

[Sideswipe]

You are daft and dishonest - for the 2nd time.

I clearly mentioned Chiam's guy lost his deposit. Of course I know his miserable results. I certainly did not imply he split the votes. I mentioned it to show how quarrelsome some opposition can be. Obviously the votes went to the PAP guy to prove my point that quarrel is bad. Chiam's vote at Potong Pasir fell from 69.6% to 55%. A massive swing of 15%. (There could be other reasons.)

you can stop wasting time reasoning with that motherfucker scumbag.
screwball always make baseless assumptions & twist peoples words to suit his own position + those stupid no sense analogies.
he is worthless shit.

you mention in first post Ling was last MP in 1997. Chiam guy lost his deposit. That's clear enough for me.

 

[Subok]

<b><big>Dear IR123,

Many people misread my message here.

Goh Meng Seng</big><b>

What's NEW? misread misquote?

<big><b> responsibility of my team's bad showing, i.e. I will quit as the leader of my party.</b></big>

YUP... please resign from WP? "take social responsibility?" back door to HK? Resign from NSP if do not do well?

What's new?

GMS, you are definitely not in this for the long haul. my advice to you... might as well pack up and go HK now. No need election, you already <b><big>LOST</big></b> the moral authority to lead.

with due respect to the lovely lady in the video below. IF YOU GMS can speak 1/2 as good as this lovely lady below then u come back and talk "properly" about "politics".

This is not an insult. This is to urge you to seriously seriously "upgrade" yourself. If normal human cannot be good enough model for you perhaps the lovely lady below can.

<object width="640" height="385"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/6HdyO8mdKJA?fs=1&amp;hl=en_US"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/6HdyO8mdKJA?fs=1&amp;hl=en_US" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="640" height="385"></embed></object>

 

[scroobal]

Why so defensive? Nobody claimed that you are from SDP. Kojak posted a relevant and quite accurate picture by citing Ling's case. You however were dishonest and tried to paint a picture of Ling thrashing the SPP candidate when he got one of the worst swings for a sitting MP.

It was indeed his fault. How did he fall from 51.4% to 28.4% from one GE to the next. You instead talked about SPP candidate who lost his deposit.

Now that all has been revealed, I am sure you must have regretted raising this. If you wanted to paint the true picture, you should have mentioned that Ling was thrashed by Ang Mong Seng, a first timer, most colourless PAP MP since MK Jabber and yet he thrashed him by getting 65%.

You can call me dishonest till the cows come home, the facts are there for everyone to see.

I am not from SDP. I am just asking a bit more honesty in the postings.

 

[aurvandil]

The intention is to use your enemy YPAP's words to lull the PAP into a false sense of security and perhaps to concentrate on other GRCs.

Whatever it takes.....for either side to win.

Let's see if the PAP will be tricked.

There seems to be a fair bit complacency in the PAP's preperations for the upcoming elections. There seems to be this strange thinking that if the Opposition was not seen doing a walkabout in the GRC, then the GRC is "safe". The PAP in these "safe" GRCs look very relaxed ... like soldiers far behind the front line and in a state of relative unpreparedness. This is as compared to those in the identified "hot" GRCs who are putting in a lot of work of ensure that they win.

 

[IR123]

There seems to be a fair bit complacency in the PAP's preperations for the upcoming elections. There seems to be this strange thinking that if the Opposition was not seen doing a walkabout in the GRC, then the GRC is "safe". The PAP in these "safe" GRCs look very relaxed ... like soldiers far behind the front line and in a state of relative unpreparedness. This is as compared to those in the identified "hot" GRCs who are putting in a lot of work of ensure that they win.

It is not that, that i am thinking of. It has more to do with my understanding of GMS style of strategy.

As for the other oppositions, as usual come election period, they will slam the citizens with the wrongdoings of the PAP and then the implicit offer - since the PAP did so much wrongs, you must prevent it by voting me in.

What the citizens failed to realize is that once they are voted in, these oppositions will sit on their fat arses, with no accountability to the voters for the issues of the day. Instead they will wait till the next elections to retain their seat.

There is another aspect - voting in the corrupt opposition politician. This must be avoided at all cost because such people will not make Singapore any better. As to whether there are any corrupt opposition politician today, this is a decision every voter need to make.

Finally as for GMS, he strategizes, does active campaigning and is fully focused towards his objectives. I believe he may enter Parliament as a NCMP if he so desires. I hope if he does, he will continue in this manner. The fact that many are putting him down is a testimony of his effectiveness. GMS is a good candidate because he is hungry.

 

[aurvandil]

It is not that, that i am thinking of. It has more to do with my understanding of GMS style of strategy.

I have been following Goh Meng Seng since he launched his "Minister specific" strategy. Initially, he was narrowly focused on housing and Minister Mah.

Overtime, he expanded to attack transport (Minister Raymond Lim), long waiting time for bed (Minister Khaw) and most recently flooding (Minister Yacob).

While he has done his walk abouts mainly in Tampines, it is actually not all that difficult to switch to another GRC. He can then follow up on his earlier work against the PAP Minister.

Time and time again, GMS has made it clear that he is against the policy, not ther Minister. It is therefore also possible that he could attack a MOS or even GPC Chair on the policy failures he has raised so far.

The low state of prepardedness in these GRC's make these tempting targets. Hence my hypothesis again and again that maybe Tampines is just a smokescreen and the real target is somewhere else. More so given the rock solid 70% vote that YPAP expects to win in Tampines.

Unless he has a secret weapon (e.g. proof of some sort of scandal), it makes no sense for Goh Meng Seng so fight against such overwhelming odds.

 

[IR123]

....QUOTE]

Well if it make sense for GMS to target another GRC, then he should go for it especially if the chances of him winning is good. Given that the possible constant boundaries will only be that of Hougang and Potong Pasir, it certainly make sense for him to keep his options flexible.

Oppositions who can comment on the government policies are what we need. We don't need the rest.

It really does not matter where he stands so long as he can get elected and hopefully be a guiding beacon of a positive example for the current two oppositions - what it means to be hungry and what it means to serve the electorate by tackling the issues that affect them.

 

[Tan Kim Kim]

This is not an insult. This is to urge you to seriously seriously "upgrade" yourself. If normal human cannot be good enough model for you perhaps the lovely lady below can.

<object width="640" height="385"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/6HdyO8mdKJA?fs=1&amp;hl=en_US"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/6HdyO8mdKJA?fs=1&amp;hl=en_US" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="640" height="385"></embed></object>

You are insulting this beautiful lady by comparing her to GMS

 

[Queen Seok Duk]

maybe tampines is just a smokescreen and the real target is somewhere else.

明修棧道，暗度陳倉？

 

[aurvandil]

明修棧道，暗度陳倉？

Just a hypothesis of mine. It looks damm fishy that he post that PAP will get 70% and then indicate that he still intend to fight in Tampines.

 

[Subok]

apologies.. .

yes indeed...

 

[Goh Meng Seng]

明修棧道，暗度陳倉？

Wow, you actually know this one.... Yes, sometimes, 兵不厌诈。。。

Goh Meng Seng

 

[Subok]

Wow, you actually know this one.... Yes, sometimes, 兵不厌诈。。。

Goh Meng Seng

Ya... misquoted, ,misread how to "厌诈"

 

[Perspective]

Hmmm.. I am curious. Do you know of any opposition party candidates that is not aiming for the 15k monthly MP allowance?

Better question to ask still - do you know of any PAP candidate that doesn't already have the 15K monthly allowance neatly tucked inside his pocket?

Why voters make the rich richer is beyond me.