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Mai Gong Mo Jio...Yahoo Finance say CDL has very good potential as it is very undervalue...dun miss the boat

Key Insights​

  • Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, City Developments fair value estimate is S$11.12
  • City Developments is estimated to be 43% undervalued based on current share price of S$6.30
  • Analyst price target for C09 is S$7.88 which is 29% below our fair value estimate
Does the January share price for City Developments Limited (SGX:C09) reflect what it's really worth? Today, we will estimate the stock's intrinsic value by estimating the company's future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. One way to achieve this is by employing the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Believe it or not, it's not too difficult to follow, as you'll see from our example!
 

The Calculation​

We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
 
Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate​

2024202520262027202820292030203120322033
Levered FCF (SGD, Millions)S$781.8mS$890.7mS$970.9mS$1.04bS$1.09bS$1.14bS$1.18bS$1.22bS$1.26bS$1.29b
Growth Rate Estimate SourceAnalyst x3Analyst x3Est @ 9.00%Est @ 6.91%Est @ 5.44%Est @ 4.41%Est @ 3.70%Est @ 3.19%Est @ 2.84%Est @ 2.59%
Present Value (SGD, Millions) Discounted @ 12%S$698S$710S$691S$659S$620S$578S$535S$493S$453S$415
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = S$5.9b
 
The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.0%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 12%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2033 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = S$1.3b× (1 + 2.0%) ÷ (12%– 2.0%) = S$13b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= S$13b÷ ( 1 + 12%)10= S$4.2b

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is S$10b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of S$6.3, the company appears quite good value at a 43% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.
 
Kopisoh, u spread thsi Gospel of Huat Big Big to your Peng You?
 
The Hong Leong in singapore (City Development, Hong Leong Finance) is different from the Hong Leong in Malaysia (Guocoland, Hong Leong Bank)

City Dev young CEO lost his pants in China.
https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/peop...split-within-singapore-tycoon-kwek-leng-bengs

Two months ago, he played dirty and announced an off-market buy-back of their preference shares at $0.78.
https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/co...ed-offer-buy-back-tenth-its-preference-shares
old investors who didn't read the documents carefully, thought City Development was redeeming as per bond term sheet.

The preference shares were launched in May 2004 at $1 for tax-purposes. City Development mentioned about redeeming them within a few years. Investors waited for 2 Decades, some even passed away but City Development refused to redeem.

Redemption price of each Preference Share should be (0.136 x Ordinary Share Price + $0.64) = about $1.48

so smelly, he could have made his family great again but he only knew how to make money from his investors.
 
Last edited:
u bot oredi now wan pipz here push up price 4 u? ...

dat article never tel pipz 2 buy, hor ...
 
Looks like very rare undervalued opportunity, really must hoot already...:

https://simplywall.st/stocks/sg/rea...nt/sgx-c09/city-developments-shares/valuation
1706080971135.png
 
I have nothing against City Development but Sherman needs to step down. When that happens, City Development will be back above $10. CEO needs to be capable with a good heart towards their faithful investors to instill confidence. Sherman has none of these two attributes.

Not every son is suitable to take over from their father. Even his whole extended family wants him to take a backseat so that City Development can return to their glory days.

City Development crashed below $6 now.
 
Singapore now ish Crown Jewel of Asia Finacial Hub after HK ownself fcuk ownself...
More upside ahead as $$$$$$ inflow quicken
 
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