I do think it is unlikely that prices will go back to the level of 2 to 3 years back where HH gateway intermediate terraces were selling below $400K but consolidation is likely.
So the current price level of Iskandar properties has still eventually got to be supported by Singaporeans and SPRs buying for residence as well as the high resale/rental values of Singapore HDB flats. The foreign investors(whether they are aware or not) are mainly buying into this factor, as this is the main push to catapult their property prices.
Brilliant, you are very sharp indeed.
I'm one of those investors who came in betting purely on the factor which you've mentioned above. There are opportunities in every situation, it's how you find it. When I invested in Nusajaya in late 2010, I didn't look at whether or not there'll be rental demand, nor was I concerned that Nusajaya needs to be very successful, in terms of having critical mass and having enough high paying jobs for locals, in order for me to make profit from this investment. That's because I can bet solely on the increase in demand from Singaporeans, as more of us get to know Nusajaya, to make handsome profit in the million(of course that depends on your invested amount).
To talk about Nusajaya having the need to be so successful isn't wrong because you guys are talking about long term sustainability. I respect you guys, including our old friend Analytical Professor who brought this up long ago, for having such detailed knowledge and professional view points about sustainability of a city. But when this opportunity is viewed in an investment point of view, which is ultimately to make profit and nothing else, there's no need to hope for Nusajaya to be very successful in order for us to make handsome profit.
There are opportunities even at present prices. You have mentioned about the current high prices but prices varies quite greatly from different type of products. For example, I would agree that;
- High-end condos at RM 1,000 psf is high (RM2 mil for a 4 rooms unit with 2,000 sq ft built-up)
- But high-end landed at RM 300 psf is not high (only around RM 0.8 mil for terraces with 4+1 bedrooms and 2,700 sq ft).
Even if a serious crisis hits and Singapore's property prices drop by say 40% to something like S$480 psf for landed. RM300 psf for a high-end terrace in Nusajaya which converts to S$120 psf is still just 25% of prices in Sg, that is still a very good bargain for Singaporeans. I would say that, in the next 2 years, there is still a room of at least 30% increase in price for such landed in Nusajaya and this price can easily be reached as the number of Singaporeans who will get to know and visit Nusajaya will be hundreds of times more than the present numbers when Nusajaya comes alive this Sept and with good reasons(like theme parks and shopping) for Singaporeans to visit. Yes, potential upcoming supplies can be a factor to suppress price, that's why we have to choose the prime land in Nusajaya's city center which are limited. I think undeveloped land in such prime area will be built with more condos instead of landed because landed developments are land consuming. Other high-end landed can only be built further away from the city center(even 2km is considered further out already). Sometimes even right across a street, prices can be a lot lower due to lack of crowd.
Prime land but which development?
That specific development but which unit?
Landed properties but terrace, semi-d or bungalow?
All those decisions will yield different returns too.