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http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/sub/news/story/0,4574,455093,00.html?


Published September 6, 2011

Torrent of bad news as markets fear the worst
Poll setback in Germany, slowdown in HK and jobs crisis in US add to recession fears




By CONRAD TAN IN SINGAPORE AND NEIL BEHRMANN IN LONDON



Rising concerns, falling stocks: A Korea Exchange Bank dealer against a backdrop of some of the market numbers yesterday
STOCKS across Asia and Europe slumped yesterday amid a slew of bad news, reinforcing fears that the world's biggest economies are sliding back into recession.

Shares of export-oriented firms across Asia were hammered, after the monthly US employment report last Friday showed that the world's biggest economy added no new jobs in August, while the number of new jobs added in July was revised downwards to just 85,000, from 117,000.

In Taiwan, the benchmark Taiex index fell 2.6 per cent, dragged down by shares in exporters such as smartphone maker HTC Corp, which slumped by 4.6 per cent. Hon Hai Precision Industry Co - the anchor company of Foxconn Technology Group, which makes iPhones and iPads for Apple - ended 3.9 per cent lower.

South Korea's Kospi index plunged 4.4 per cent, weighed down by firms such as consumer electronics maker Samsung Electronics and car manufacturer Hyundai Motor.

Financial firms with significant businesses in the US were also hit hard, after the US government on Friday sued 17 banks that included Japan's Nomura Holdings, as well as Barclays, HSBC, Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS), Societe Generale, Credit Suisse and Deutsche Bank in Europe, alleging that they sold nearly US$200 billion worth of home loans to mortgage agencies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac without disclosing how risky they were.

Adding to the woes, the Hong Kong purchasing managers' index published by HSBC fell to 47.8 in August from 51.4 in July, suggesting that economic activity there may be shrinking. The Hang Seng Index slid 3.0 per cent to end at 19,616.40.

Here, the Straits Times Index fell 2.5 per cent to 2,773.17, with all 30 of its members suffering declines.

The grim sentiment spilled over into European markets, with most major indices across Europe down by 3 per cent or more in early trading. Bank stocks led the decline, with RBS shares plunging more than 10 per cent in London trading.

In the United Kingdom, a monthly index that tracks business activity in services such as financial intermediation, and transport, storage and communication but not retail, fell sharply in August compared to July, suggesting that the pace of expansion is slowing to a crawl.

Also contributing to the worries was the heavy defeat suffered at the polls by German Chancellor Angela Merkel's party in state elections - its fifth election loss this year. The drubbing it received fuelled investors' fears that European leaders' efforts to rescue ailing eurozone countries such as Greece, Portugal, Ireland and Spain could stumble in the face of popular dissent.

Talks among officials from the European Union, the International Monetary Fund and Greece broke off unexpectedly last Friday after it became clear that Greece had yet to meet conditions set for a 110 billion-euro (S$188 billion) loan from the EU and IMF announced earlier.

Some investors now fear that a default by Greece is inevitable and are worried that the fallout could overwhelm other eurozone members also struggling with a mountain of debt.

Such has been the contagion of the crisis that Christine Lagarde, the new IMF managing director, has called for more Keynesian stimulus to counter a recession in Europe and the US. She told German magazine Der Spiegel that the US and Europe should withdraw from fiscal austerity and switch to stimulus measures. The global economy faced a 'threatening downward spiral', she said.

'There has been a clear crisis of confidence that has seriously aggravated the situation,' she said. 'Measures need to be taken to ensure that this vicious circle is broken.'

'It is a combination of slow growth coming out of the financial crisis and heavy sovereign debt,' she added. 'Both fuel serious concerns about the capital and the strength of banks, notably when they hold significant volumes of sovereign bonds. Should banks experience further difficulties, further countries will be stricken. We have to break this cycle.'
 

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http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/sub/news/story/0,4574,455095,00.html?

Published September 6, 2011

Blue chips' target prices take a big hit
Bank and property stocks among those downgraded by analysts


By EMILYN YAP


(SINGAPORE) The proverbial falling knife in the stock market has landed on target prices for local shares. Analysts are making significant cuts - particularly for banking, property, and shipping and offshore counters - as the economic outlook grows murkier by the day.



'The probability of a recession is becoming higher and higher.'

- CIMB research head Kenneth Ng




'The probability of a recession is becoming higher and higher,' said CIMB research head Kenneth Ng, who has seen a number of research houses trim target prices since the second half of August.

Some of the sharpest revisions came from JP Morgan on Sept 3, which slashed its target prices for DBS Group, OCBC Bank and United Overseas Bank (UOB) by double-digit percentages each.

Its general view of the banking sector had dimmed because of sustained low interest rates and deteriorating growth outlook. As a result, it expected net interest margins, loan growth and fee income growth to slip, while credit costs could increase.

JP Morgan's revisions were most drastic for OCBC in percentage terms. It lowered its target price for the bank by 24.5 per cent to $8.30 from $11.00, and downgraded its call to 'neutral' from 'overweight'. The stock ended trading at $8.50 yesterday, shedding 22 cents.

The research house also cut its target price for DBS by 16.7 per cent (to $20 from $24), and that for UOB by 14.3 per cent (to $18 from $21), but kept its ratings for them at 'overweight' and 'neutral' respectively.

DBS fell by 36 cents to $12.74 yesterday, while UOB lost 33 cents to $17.78.

JP Morgan is not alone in reducing target prices for the local banks. Kim Eng also wielded its shears two weeks earlier, chopping target prices for the three banks by more than 20 per cent each, according to Bloomberg data.

Banking stocks have been sold off on the stock market since the start of August, and the sector could 'underperform over the next twelve months', Kim Eng said in a note yesterday.

Property counters have not escaped the round of target price revisions. Just yesterday, DBS Vickers cut its target price for Keppel Land by over 10 per cent to $4.18 (down from $4.69), though it retained its 'buy' call on the stock. Keppel Land ended trading eight cents lower at $2.90.

'We believe stocks are currently priced for a slowdown but not a recession. Our strategy would be to adopt a stock picking strategy in the property sector,' the research house said.

For Singapore Land too, DBS Vickers trimmed the target price by 12.5 per cent to $7.20, while Kim Eng slashed it by 33 per cent to $4.89. Office rents are under pressure as business sentiments wane while the supply of space remains steady, Kim Eng said in a Sept 1 report, and 'SingLand's portfolio is significantly overweight on the office sector'.

Singapore Land closed at $6.46 yesterday - 21 cents lower.

Target prices for shipping and offshore stocks have also been hit with the sector's close link to the health of the economy. According to Bloomberg data, Daiwa Securities knocked 37 per cent off SembCorp Marine's target price last month to $3.81, and that for Keppel Corp by 25.2 per cent to $10.24.

There are few words of comfort for shareholders hoping for an improvement in the outlook soon. 'I doubt it's the end,' said DMG & Partners Securities co-head of research Terence Wong of the spate of target price cuts.

He sees the unresolved debt situation in the eurozone as the bigger wild card; while economic figures from the US have been weak, the country is at least not facing a major financial crisis like it was a few years ago, he said.
 

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http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111904537404576552071330644158.html

By FIONA LAW
Singapore state investment company Temasek Holdings Pte. Ltd. has bought 4.4 billion shares in China Construction Bank Corp., raising its stake to 8.10% from 6.27% of the bank's Hong Kong-listed shares, according to a filing to the Hong Kong stock exchange Monday.

Temasek bought the shares at 4.94 Hong Kong dollars (63 U.S. cents) each on Aug. 29, according to the filing, which would make the total cost about US$2.79 billion. The filing didn't name the seller, but a person familiar with the situation said the shares were part of the CCB stake sold by Bank of America that day.

A Temasek spokesperson confirmed that the Singapore state investment company had increased its stake in CCB to 8.10%.
 
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