- Joined
- Oct 3, 2016
- Messages
- 35,356
- Points
- 113
Lao Ho, take a knife and fuck your own cheebye.
Is this enough?
What worked last year will be necessary but not enough.
Why?
We are not dealing with the Doggy variant of last year.
We are dealing with the more infectious, and possibly more deadly and/or more slippery variants from this year.
The VOCs are variants which are either more infectious, more deadly, and/or more slippery than the dominant variant of last year.
However, with huge outbreaks all over the world, more of these VOCs have come into the world.
Already they have spread throughout the world, replacing the old Doggy variants.
The key is that all of these VOCs are more infectious.
Last year, one case spreads on average to 2-3 others.
This year, one case spreads on average to 4-6 others.
We can think of it as having to deal with a more explosive pandemic.
How so?
Assume last year, that we think of the upper end of one case spreading to 3 others on average, we see the exponential tripling as :
3 => 9 => 27 => 81 =>243 ....
So if we don’t catch the infectious cases early, and ringfence and firebreak the transmission pathways early, we would be dealing with hundreds within 5 generations of infection.
This year, at the lower end of one case spreading to 4 others on average, the exponential explosion is quadrupling as :
4 => 16 => 64 => 256 => 1024 ...
And at the upper end of one case spreading to 6 others on average, the exponential explosion is :
6 => 36 => 216 => 1296 => 7776 ...
This year, we are dealing with thousands of infections within 5 generations.
This is if we were fast last year, we MUST be ultra fast this year.
And if the infectivity goes up further, say to 8 on average, then we will see an even bigger explosion :
8 => 64 => 512 => 4096 => 32768 ...
That means we will be dealing with 10s of thousands within 5 generations.
So folks, let’s take this even more seriously than last year.
And we can do it!
We are NOT helpless!
One key understanding is that the virus looks for opportunities to jump to another person.
That is the key also to prevent the virus from spreading.
One very important tool can work if all of us do it religiously for the next 3-6 weeks, possibly 9 weeks.
This simple tool is to wear a mask at all times, and avoid any activity with others, which requires masks to be down.
Yup, this means no eating or drinking with others.
Last year, if all of us wear a mask, and do not eat or drink together, especially indoors, then just a 40% effective mask will be enough to shrink the average transmission rate to less than 1 other infection per infected case.
If we eat and drink together, then those are the loopholes when the virus can hop across to our friends and families as we talk, laugh, sing or joke together.
In that case, even if everyone wears a mask, we would see periods of no masks when eating and drinking together, and so we would need at least 50% effective mask, assuming those eating and drinking together brings down mask wearing to the equivalent of 75% masks wearing.
This year, assuming we are dealing with a more infectious VOC that infects an average of 6 others, and we have everyone wearing masks all the time, we need to all wear at least 60% effective masks.
We have just closed the loophole of dining in, so eating and drinking with others, masks down, has been removed.
Assume we don’t have perfect discipline, and we have effectively only 90% wearing masks. Then we would need to wear a 70% effective mask.
How can we do this?
A medical grade surgical mask would be more than 70% effective.
A decent non medical grade mask would often be 70-80% effective. So that is fine.
Sometimes, we can have some poor quality “surgical” masks which would be about 50% effective.
Double masking such masks would give us 75% effectiveness.
Double masking a 70% effective mask, could give us just over 90% effectiveness.
So double masking is one easy way to improve effectiveness.
Sure, there is the usual caveat about leaks from the sides and so on.
But then a poorly fitted N95 mask will be around 80% effective, and a decent double layer cotton could also be 70-80% effective to reduce infectious saliva droplets.
But let’s recognise that there are no signs that this is as infectious as measles which infect 15-20 others on average, at least not yet!
So for those worried about being infected, especially in a high exposure job or in a high contact job where we meet many people every day, do consider going for a fitted N95, or a double mask medical grade surgical mask, and add a face shield.
The face shield not only prevents the larger droplets from coming through, it also prevents us from rubbing our eyes or touching our masks with contaminated hands. The face shield is a reminder to clean our hands before we touch and adjust our masks or touch our eyes, nose, and mouth.
So folks, we are not helpless, and we can beat all of these more infectious VOCs if we work together with discipline.
The most critical period is the next 3 weeks.
We can do more than the current rules.
We can at least cover our mouths when we run in places where we see other faces. This helps keep our saliva droplets from heavy mouth breathing to ourselves, and protect others from our slipstream of heavy breathing.
We can eat separately at home too. This is esp useful if we are in jobs with high exposure risks such as hospitals, airports, seaports, or land border crossings.
Fortunately, eateries are closed for dining in, so one potential superspreader cluster type of venues has been closed off.
If we want to go one step further, we should get ready to mask up at least our mouth at home. This is especially useful if friends or family members are known or suspected close contacts of folks in quarantine or SHN, or are working in higher exposure risks locations.
Kiasu?
Sure.
But being kiasu and kiasi the next 3 weeks can help a lot to reduce the chance of a big explosion.
Meanwhile, do encourage our older folks to go vaccinate as soon as possible.
Yes, our vaccine deliveries are slow this month, and possibly next 1-2 months.
So all the more, encourage our older folks to protect themselves.
Given the scarcity of vaccines, let’s protect our vulnerable seniors as much as possible.
For the current outbreak, it is still not too late, bcos a vaccination can start having protective effects starting about 2 weeks after the 1st shot for both the vaccines authorised in Sg.
Keep well, folks, and let’s be kiasu and kiasi for the next 3 weeks together.
Just remember it is not about keeping to the rules and finding ways around them.
The challenge for us all is to make as many firebreaks as possible to break the chain of transmission.
Let’s shrink the current community spread exponentially instead of allowing it to explode exponentially.
Our discipline the next few days will make a huge difference whether we will face shortages and pain and suffering that we are seeing elsewhere.
Learn from others, that the short term pain over the next 1 week, w weeks, 3 weeks will buy us what money cannot buy - health and safety from covid, and a better chance of normal life and livelihood sooner than later.
Is this enough?
What worked last year will be necessary but not enough.
Why?
We are not dealing with the Doggy variant of last year.
We are dealing with the more infectious, and possibly more deadly and/or more slippery variants from this year.
The VOCs are variants which are either more infectious, more deadly, and/or more slippery than the dominant variant of last year.
However, with huge outbreaks all over the world, more of these VOCs have come into the world.
Already they have spread throughout the world, replacing the old Doggy variants.
The key is that all of these VOCs are more infectious.
Last year, one case spreads on average to 2-3 others.
This year, one case spreads on average to 4-6 others.
We can think of it as having to deal with a more explosive pandemic.
How so?
Assume last year, that we think of the upper end of one case spreading to 3 others on average, we see the exponential tripling as :
3 => 9 => 27 => 81 =>243 ....
So if we don’t catch the infectious cases early, and ringfence and firebreak the transmission pathways early, we would be dealing with hundreds within 5 generations of infection.
This year, at the lower end of one case spreading to 4 others on average, the exponential explosion is quadrupling as :
4 => 16 => 64 => 256 => 1024 ...
And at the upper end of one case spreading to 6 others on average, the exponential explosion is :
6 => 36 => 216 => 1296 => 7776 ...
This year, we are dealing with thousands of infections within 5 generations.
This is if we were fast last year, we MUST be ultra fast this year.
And if the infectivity goes up further, say to 8 on average, then we will see an even bigger explosion :
8 => 64 => 512 => 4096 => 32768 ...
That means we will be dealing with 10s of thousands within 5 generations.
So folks, let’s take this even more seriously than last year.
And we can do it!
We are NOT helpless!
One key understanding is that the virus looks for opportunities to jump to another person.
That is the key also to prevent the virus from spreading.
One very important tool can work if all of us do it religiously for the next 3-6 weeks, possibly 9 weeks.
This simple tool is to wear a mask at all times, and avoid any activity with others, which requires masks to be down.
Yup, this means no eating or drinking with others.
Last year, if all of us wear a mask, and do not eat or drink together, especially indoors, then just a 40% effective mask will be enough to shrink the average transmission rate to less than 1 other infection per infected case.
If we eat and drink together, then those are the loopholes when the virus can hop across to our friends and families as we talk, laugh, sing or joke together.
In that case, even if everyone wears a mask, we would see periods of no masks when eating and drinking together, and so we would need at least 50% effective mask, assuming those eating and drinking together brings down mask wearing to the equivalent of 75% masks wearing.
This year, assuming we are dealing with a more infectious VOC that infects an average of 6 others, and we have everyone wearing masks all the time, we need to all wear at least 60% effective masks.
We have just closed the loophole of dining in, so eating and drinking with others, masks down, has been removed.
Assume we don’t have perfect discipline, and we have effectively only 90% wearing masks. Then we would need to wear a 70% effective mask.
How can we do this?
A medical grade surgical mask would be more than 70% effective.
A decent non medical grade mask would often be 70-80% effective. So that is fine.
Sometimes, we can have some poor quality “surgical” masks which would be about 50% effective.
Double masking such masks would give us 75% effectiveness.
Double masking a 70% effective mask, could give us just over 90% effectiveness.
So double masking is one easy way to improve effectiveness.
Sure, there is the usual caveat about leaks from the sides and so on.
But then a poorly fitted N95 mask will be around 80% effective, and a decent double layer cotton could also be 70-80% effective to reduce infectious saliva droplets.
But let’s recognise that there are no signs that this is as infectious as measles which infect 15-20 others on average, at least not yet!
So for those worried about being infected, especially in a high exposure job or in a high contact job where we meet many people every day, do consider going for a fitted N95, or a double mask medical grade surgical mask, and add a face shield.
The face shield not only prevents the larger droplets from coming through, it also prevents us from rubbing our eyes or touching our masks with contaminated hands. The face shield is a reminder to clean our hands before we touch and adjust our masks or touch our eyes, nose, and mouth.
So folks, we are not helpless, and we can beat all of these more infectious VOCs if we work together with discipline.
The most critical period is the next 3 weeks.
We can do more than the current rules.
We can at least cover our mouths when we run in places where we see other faces. This helps keep our saliva droplets from heavy mouth breathing to ourselves, and protect others from our slipstream of heavy breathing.
We can eat separately at home too. This is esp useful if we are in jobs with high exposure risks such as hospitals, airports, seaports, or land border crossings.
Fortunately, eateries are closed for dining in, so one potential superspreader cluster type of venues has been closed off.
If we want to go one step further, we should get ready to mask up at least our mouth at home. This is especially useful if friends or family members are known or suspected close contacts of folks in quarantine or SHN, or are working in higher exposure risks locations.
Kiasu?
Sure.
But being kiasu and kiasi the next 3 weeks can help a lot to reduce the chance of a big explosion.
Meanwhile, do encourage our older folks to go vaccinate as soon as possible.
Yes, our vaccine deliveries are slow this month, and possibly next 1-2 months.
So all the more, encourage our older folks to protect themselves.
Given the scarcity of vaccines, let’s protect our vulnerable seniors as much as possible.
For the current outbreak, it is still not too late, bcos a vaccination can start having protective effects starting about 2 weeks after the 1st shot for both the vaccines authorised in Sg.
Keep well, folks, and let’s be kiasu and kiasi for the next 3 weeks together.
Just remember it is not about keeping to the rules and finding ways around them.
The challenge for us all is to make as many firebreaks as possible to break the chain of transmission.
Let’s shrink the current community spread exponentially instead of allowing it to explode exponentially.
Our discipline the next few days will make a huge difference whether we will face shortages and pain and suffering that we are seeing elsewhere.
Learn from others, that the short term pain over the next 1 week, w weeks, 3 weeks will buy us what money cannot buy - health and safety from covid, and a better chance of normal life and livelihood sooner than later.
