Iskandar Residences @ Medini

[Frodo]

I witnessed PRC snapping up 3-4 units just like that in Forest City. It is a worse case than Danga Bay Country Garden where Ghost City will more suit it

Recently met up with China friend who came over to JB for vacation, he is migrating to Canada. He said that many rich China people are leaving China....maybe many will come to JB...I also jio him to consider staying in JB...:p

http://news.yahoo.com/chinas-millionaires-leaving-china-080000378.html

http://fortune.com/2014/06/05/china-rich-immigration/

 

[tstar]

jb is not that attractive as compared to canada for china rich people. cause these people want a new citizenship to keep their money safe. that is why china people go everywhere even to some remote islands in order to get a new passport. however, malaysia does not grant citizenship whatsoever.

anyway, i admit china people these days are so rich. if you go beijing or shenzhen, you will see generally local people are much richer than singaporeans. a lousy 1200 sqf flat in beijing near the third circle sells about 7miil china yuan. the price is about ten timez 10 to 15 years ago. and ordinary people back then snapped up two or three like my friends from beijing.

that is the reason china people buying up properties everywhere from auckland to au. one beijing flat for one big landed house and citizenship plus tuition fee.

 

[mpan12]

The underlying assumption for your negative view of JB properties would be that the property climate now will remain in place for the next 20 to 30 years, or that things remain status quo. But will JB be stagnant for next 20-30 years? I doubt so. I am not saying that therefore there will be a prosperous boom ahead and everyone should pump their money into Iskandar. But I am saying that there seems to be a deliberate effort by the JB state (including the Sultan) to move the Iskandar project along. Perhaps more can be done, and quickly too. Whether it be the JB state govt, the Sultan, or the greedy developers, all would (or should) have a vested interest not to see JB fall into the abyss.

Actually, I didn't assume anything. I didn't say Iskandar will definitely be a flop. I'm just commenting based on present facts at hand. If you read my post again, I did give Iskandar a "chance" by hinting that in 20 or 30 years, MAYBE it might move. But it's only MAYBE. The time line is too long to predict. Even if things go as planned, you face other forms of risks, like the Malaysian laws changing regulations for foreign home owners, currency exchange, etc. That's why I termed it as high risk form of investment.

The way they planned Iskandar is wrong from a purely property investors' point of view. Sorry if the word "wrong" is strong. But it is. If Singapore is so developed, with relatively high population, all amenities and excellent transportation in full force, there is already a worry about the present oversupply, isn't it clear by comparison, Iskandar is in a doomed position, as far as the oversupply is concerned? Again, this is strictly from an investor's point of view. A person who buys for his own stay, that's his choice on how he wants to spend his money, whether wise or not, it's another matter.

My previous post was directed at comfy when he said that even Singapore properties are not doing well, so by that fact, Iskandar properties slowing down also seems ok or expected. That's a wrong assumption.

Also, if you have been to Medini in the region where Iskandar Residences now is, you can see for yourself the place is pretty much "dead", with trees all around. Surrounding it within 2 km are thousands of condo units being built now. Use your practical imagination and think. You're now in JB, Malaysia (where anything goes), as an urban planner, how long do you think the place will be developed for you to see things moving? To be honest, I can't imagine.

 

[cybermad]

Actually, I didn't assume anything. I didn't say Iskandar will definitely be a flop. I'm just commenting based on present facts at hand. If you read my post again, I did give Iskandar a "chance" by hinting that in 20 or 30 years, MAYBE it might move. But it's only MAYBE. The time line is too long to predict. Even if things go as planned, you face other forms of risks, like the Malaysian laws changing regulations for foreign home owners, currency exchange, etc. That's why I termed it as high risk form of investment.

The way they planned Iskandar is wrong from a purely property investors' point of view. Sorry if the word "wrong" is strong. But it is. If Singapore is so developed, with relatively high population, all amenities and excellent transportation in full force, there is already a worry about the present oversupply, isn't it clear by comparison, Iskandar is in a doomed position, as far as the oversupply is concerned? Again, this is strictly from an investor's point of view. A person who buys for his own stay, that's his choice on how he wants to spend his money, whether wise or not, it's another matter.

My previous post was directed at comfy when he said that even Singapore properties are not doing well, so by that fact, Iskandar properties slowing down also seems ok or expected. That's a wrong assumption.

Also, if you have been to Medini in the region where Iskandar Residences now is, you can see for yourself the place is pretty much "dead", with trees all around. Surrounding it within 2 km are thousands of condo units being built now. Use your practical imagination and think. You're now in JB, Malaysia (where anything goes), as an urban planner, how long do you think the place will be developed for you to see things moving? To be honest, I can't imagine.

I dun own any ppty at medini but I think is rather unfair to comment that the place is "dead" etc. Of course its "dead" now when there is only construction gg on. Who stays at construction sites ??

 

[Frodo]

Actually, I didn't assume anything. I didn't say Iskandar will definitely be a flop. I'm just commenting based on present facts at hand. If you read my post again, I did give Iskandar a "chance" by hinting that in 20 or 30 years, MAYBE it might move. But it's only MAYBE. The time line is too long to predict. Even if things go as planned, you face other forms of risks, like the Malaysian laws changing regulations for foreign home owners, currency exchange, etc. That's why I termed it as high risk form of investment.

The way they planned Iskandar is wrong from a purely property investors' point of view. Sorry if the word "wrong" is strong. But it is. If Singapore is so developed, with relatively high population, all amenities and excellent transportation in full force, there is already a worry about the present oversupply, isn't it clear by comparison, Iskandar is in a doomed position, as far as the oversupply is concerned? Again, this is strictly from an investor's point of view. A person who buys for his own stay, that's his choice on how he wants to spend his money, whether wise or not, it's another matter.

My previous post was directed at comfy when he said that even Singapore properties are not doing well, so by that fact, Iskandar properties slowing down also seems ok or expected. That's a wrong assumption.

Also, if you have been to Medini in the region where Iskandar Residences now is, you can see for yourself the place is pretty much "dead", with trees all around. Surrounding it within 2 km are thousands of condo units being built now. Use your practical imagination and think. You're now in JB, Malaysia (where anything goes), as an urban planner, how long do you think the place will be developed for you to see things moving? To be honest, I can't imagine.

You may not realise it but you actually have assumed that the present facts will also be the future facts. Otherwise you can't project anything or comment about how the future would be, whether it is 20 to 30 years, or even 7 to 8 years. But since Iskandar kicked off in 2006, it has been about 10 years and I think much of the landscape has changed. Maybe back in 2006 critics already say Iskandar project cannot make it off the starting block. Even when it did kick off maybe critics say it will fall flat in 3 years time. And when things start moving even more critics say other things....10 years later now that the landscape is dotted with condos the critics are saying oversupply. Or if no oversupply it will be that quality no good. Or if quality Ok it would be that govt no good. Or if govt Ok it would be too much crime. Or if police force is beefed up it would be that police are crooked. My point is that there is no end to pointing out what are the negatives if one is already prejudiced towards Iskandar from the start.

 

[ECboy]

"If you don't like something, change it; if you can't change it, change the way you think about it." - Mary Engelbreit

 

[freekazoid]

Too tempted to open a can of worm...

"Your money could already be growing much more if invested elsewhere with that kind of long time frame"

Can give example of above "elsewhere" investment.

 

[Frodo]

Too tempted to open a can of worm...

"Your money could already be growing much more if invested elsewhere with that kind of long time frame"

Can give example of above "elsewhere" investment.

Elsewhere is probably anywhere but JB Iskandar!

 

[Tekkun]

Elsewhere is probably anywhere but JB Iskandar!

Sentosa

 

[mpan12]

I dun own any ppty at medini but I think is rather unfair to comment that the place is "dead" etc. Of course its "dead" now when there is only construction gg on. Who stays at construction sites ??

But isn't it a fact it's devoid of traffic and people? I don't mean people have to live there while it is under construction! Rather, I'm looking at it in relation to the oversupply issue and the prices buyers have (over)paid. Other than residential homes and hotel, what is being planned around the IR condo and its vicinity? Nothing much.

Moreover, it's not as if buyers paid on average RM300k (approximately RM100k) or so for a unit there. Even if the place sucks years later, your risk exposure is lower.

Back in 2010 and before, those who bought Iskandar houses paid at a low price. Yes, the place was also "dead" then, but their risk is also low. Now buyers are paying like what... RM700k to RM1million on average for a condo unit where the surroundings are just trees with no plans to build anything around it? That's very expensive by Malaysian standard! Come 2018 to 2020, where are your businesses and people coming from while facing the huge oversupply of condos? For those not retiring there, and with no ready pool of tenants, are the owners going back there every weekend just to "warm up" their sofas in the condos?

So far, no one has answered how the oversupply of overpriced properties will thrive in Iskandar. Cos you don't even know. I don't know too. That's the risk. You are only hoping something good will happen. Hope is not a wise way to invest. It's called a gamble.

 

[mpan12]

You may not realise it but you actually have assumed that the present facts will also be the future facts. Otherwise you can't project anything or comment about how the future would be, whether it is 20 to 30 years, or even 7 to 8 years. But since Iskandar kicked off in 2006, it has been about 10 years and I think much of the landscape has changed. Maybe back in 2006 critics already say Iskandar project cannot make it off the starting block. Even when it did kick off maybe critics say it will fall flat in 3 years time. And when things start moving even more critics say other things....10 years later now that the landscape is dotted with condos the critics are saying oversupply. Or if no oversupply it will be that quality no good. Or if quality Ok it would be that govt no good. Or if govt Ok it would be too much crime. Or if police force is beefed up it would be that police are crooked. My point is that there is no end to pointing out what are the negatives if one is already prejudiced towards Iskandar from the start.

I think you should not nitpick and use the word "assumption" strictly in its exact meaning.

Let me ask you a question: Before you leave home, you notice the sky has dark clouds and strong wind is blowing. Will you bring an umbrella with you before going out in the open? If you are logical enough, you will. But am I reasonable to say: "That's an assumption you are making. You are assuming it will rain. But it may not!" I don't think I am reasonable to do that. This is what you are trying to say to me when you mentioned I had assumed things about Iskandar. Isn't it wise to assume it will likely rain when you see dark clouds in the sky?

If you are astute enough, you use present and past facts and data to deduce whether it is worth it to invest in something. Of course, different people have different risk appetite. If you are a high-risk taker, you may not mind losing big. But that's besides the point.

You have been presented with enough data and facts, past and present, about JB/Iskandar properties. You know how Malaysia functions.... its governance, politics, currency exchange, etc. There is nothing to hide. It's whether one bothers to read them in detail and use them in relation to what he is investing.

Of course we need to do projection for the future. But only if you base it on valid and logical facts. We are not gods you know. If you don't even project in an intelligent way how the future will likely turn out, then we can never do any investment. Are you going to wait until you receive a message from god to say something definite is about to happen before you make a decision? Of course not!

Like I said, there is no right or wrong way of looking at things. You may have avoided Singapore properties cos you don't earn enough or have enough money to buy them, and thus, you go to Iskandar. Or you may have bought it because you thought how good it felt when you didn't even have to fork out a lot for downpayment. That's fine if it works for you.

Like I also wrote, I didn't say Iskandar will definitely be a flop. But I have been maintaining my stand that it's a high risk form of investment. How is one going to dispute that? At the end of the day, the money belongs to you. No one can tell you whether you should buy or not to buy. But I still will fall back on the facts if I want to make intelligent decisions. I still reiterate Iskandar has many downsides. The 2013 fake "boom" is not even the "up" side of the property cycle. It's an artificial spike in buying spree when many buyers rushed in to buy due to herd mentality.

 

[freekazoid]

The oversupply is just too much. If you go to the area around Iskandar Residences, count the number of new condo units to be launched within a 2km radius. There are thousands! Too much competition and choice. Malaysians generally won't buy. Your overseas buyers and renters are limited. All around it is very much literally palm trees. Some may argue, I hold lor. Hold for how long? 20 years? 30 years? That's too long a time line for any wise investment with such high risks. Your money could already be growing much more if invested elsewhere with that kind of long time frame.

Just my view.... No right or wrong. But it's more of whether the high risks are worth taking. I'd like to hear another different logical point of view if anyone has to share.

Ask again...what is the "elsewhere" investment recommend from your astute self?

There are group of people like to point this wrong that wrong and walk away....and there is other group that say this wrong and show the right way.....

 

[comfy]

maybe good to read some more balanced articles by professionals

Property investors in Iskandar Malaysia are understandably jittery. For the past year, there were rumours of a housing property glut. Now it is official and there is fear that the Iskandar property market in the Johor economic region will collapse like a tonne of bricks. These fears are also felt from across the causeway.
First, it was the National Property Information Centre data that showed a 33 per cent drop in transactions in Iskandar in the fourth-quarter of last year, compared with the previous quarter. People were not buying and selling properties as much as they used to, and there are concerns that the drop in demand could turn to a drop in values very quickly.
Then Maybank Investment Bank report cautioned investors saying there was a property oversupply in Iskandar and that the property values are likely to decline in mid-term. This is when many were seriously considering if they should sell off their properties and cut their losses.
If that were not enough to spook anyone, the Consumer Association of Singapore (Case) came out strongly to warn Singaporeans to be careful when buying overseas properties. They say there were complaints of an investment company duping Singaporeans and of a foreign property developer becoming insolvent and resulting in Singaporean buyers losing their investments.
More to Iskandar than Just Houses
Iskandar Investments 2006-2014In the midst of all this, the Iskandar Regional Development Authority (Irda) reports that Iskandar had RM7.98 billion (US$2.2 billion) in new investments in the first quarter of this year. Since inception in 2006 to March 31, 2015, Iskandar Malaysia had received RM166.1 billion (US$46.3 billion – in present day conversion)) in total cumulative committed investments.
According to the latest available data, which is as of December 2014, most of the investments are in manufacturing and only about 25 per cent are in residential properties. The breakdown of investments via sectors shows that Iskandar has been attracting a mix of investments.
Iskandar is not being propped up only or primarily by the property market, as many tend to think due to the considerable publicity on the property market there.
Eco World Development Group Berhad president and chief executive officer Dato’ Chang Khim Wah is convinced Iskandar has great potential and there is more to the region than just houses. “To date, RM77.17 billion (US$21.5 billion) or about 49 percent of the total investments in Iskandar has been realised. This shows the confidence level of business owners in Iskandar Malaysia,” he said in an email response to The Establishment Post.
Eco World together with Nusantara Megajuta Sdn Bhd is planning to develop a township in Iskandar. This is a proposed 12.5-acre mix development project likely to be launched later this year. Eco World, one of the top developers in the country, secured RM2.2 billion (US$600 million) in sales from Iskandar from Sept 2013 to Feb 2015, of which RM1.8 billion (US$500 million) came from residential townships. “The rest came from Eco Business Park I, one of three business parks we have in Iskandar Malaysia,” says Dato’ Chang.
“Iskandar Malaysia’s prospects remains attractive due to its close proximity to Singapore, high job creation and migration growth rates, good infrastructure and generally accommodative investment policies,” he adds.
Iskandar is made up of five zones:
Johor Bahru City Center (financial, cultural and urban tourism)
Nusajaya (property, education and medical tourism, entertainment and recreation, state administration, finance and biotechnology)
Western Gate Development (port, logistics, free zone industrial area, regional distribution and international procurement, and oil storage terminals)
Eastern Gate Development (manufacturing oil storage terminals)
Senai – Skudai (logistics, manufacturing, tourism, airport)
Are developers backing off or temporarily holding back?
In the last few years, developers rushed in to build houses in Iskandar. The biggest and the best developers from Malaysia, China and Singapore all are keenly aware of the potential of this southern economic region. Many of them are aware of the possibility of oversupply and seem to be doing their part to ensure the bubble does not burst.
Last August, Malaysia’s biggest property developer by market capitalisation UEM Sunrise reduced its annual sales target by 40 per cent due to poor take up of its launches in Iskandar. UEM Sunrise gave its reason as needing to restrategise and reduce its dependency on Iskandar.
There is every reason to believe that UEM Sunrise was fleeing a potential disaster, except for the fact that it is still holding on to its land bank in Iskandar, which constitutes 60 per cent of the company’s total. It is almost a year now and there is still no sign of UEM Sunrise disposing of its land in Iskandar. UEM Sunrise is either still looking for buyers or they are waiting for the market to pick up.
CapitaLand, one of Asia’s largest real estate companies headquartered and listed in Singapore, has not yet launched its Danga Bay project since announcing it two years ago. They claim they need to iron out contract details with Iskandar Waterfront Holdings, their co-partner in the project along with Temasek Holdings. An earlier report says they are committed to the Iskandar projects but are biding their time and wait for the market to pick up again.
There seems to be an effort by developers to allow the Iskandar property market to correct itself and for all parties to take stock of the situation and restrategise. Certainly, not the ideal situation for those who flip properties. Which is what a good number of Malaysian and Singaporean residential property investors tend to do.
Medini Iskandar’s recent move was also an effort to ensure housing development projects did not descend into a frenzy. Medini is the master planner for Medini township that is Nusajaya’s Central Business District and a few months ago they decided to stop selling land for residential developments. They say that most of the developers bought land in Medini to build residential properties and that was not the purpose for which Medini was being developed.
Medini, which has attracted global companies like ICT solutions provider Huawei and consulting firm Frost & Sullivan, probably wants to ensure that business remains as the focus on this township. If it plays its card right, Medini could be one of the main financial, business and investment centres in the Asean Economic Community (AEC).
A lot going for Iskandar
“There is also a continued push for Singapore SMEs to relocate and for MNCs to expand into Iskandar Malaysia as a natural hinterland to better manage their overall cost of operations,” says Dato’ Chang. “The cost of operating in Iskandar Malaysia, which can be as low as 1/3 of the cost in Singapore, is also another compelling factor,” he adds. Not surprising that Johor is the most preferred investment destination in the country for manufacturing. Johor received investments worth RM21.2 billion (US$5.9 billion). The previous year, it was RM14 billion (US$3.9 billion).
“These fundamentals, together with positive developments in economic activities and catalytic projects move in tandem with the property sector, assuring continued sustainable demand in Iskandar Malaysia, notwithstanding occasional weak market sentiments.”
He sees new growth areas like Pengerang will continue to feature prominently in the next phase of Iskandar property development. At the same time, older areas like Pasir Gudang will be regenerated and one of the ways its recently improved connectivity to the many highways and its close proximity to Johor Port.
Dato’ Chang listed down ways to keep investors confident and these include:
consistent and transparent foreign investment policies and improved communication between stakeholders on both sides of the Causeway;
increase in productive and job creating investments within Iskandar;
accelerate economic activities and catalytic projects in Iskandar;
enhance security and continued improvement in infrastructure.
All eyes will be on the Iskandar Malaysia Comprehensive Development Plan II due to be unveiled this quarter. While there is a lot at stake, there is a lot going for Iskandar.


Read more: Is the Iskandar Property Market Wobbling or Collapsing? http://www.establishmentpost.com/property-market-iskandar-malaysia-correcting/#ixzz3wNheG4ZW
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[freekazoid]

Actually, I didn't assume anything. I didn't say Iskandar will definitely be a flop. I'm just commenting based on present facts at hand. If you read my post again, I did give Iskandar a "chance" by hinting that in 20 or 30 years, MAYBE it might move. But it's only MAYBE. The time line is too long to predict. Even if things go as planned, you face other forms of risks, like the Malaysian laws changing regulations for foreign home owners, currency exchange, etc. That's why I termed it as high risk form of investment.

If you are astute enough, you use present and past facts and data to deduce whether it is worth it to invest in something. Of course, different people have different risk appetite. If you are a high-risk taker, you may not mind losing big. But that's besides the point.

As your astute self described on 2nd paragraph the importance of present and pass facts and data. And in 1st paragraph mentioned of parameters concluded to measure Iskandar high risk status.

Therefore I must enquire "chance" given for a "maybe 20years" or "maybe 30years" or more years before thing move. Please give example/data where an area market is depressed for 20yrs or more, there should be no past/present data support this in malaysia. Therefore I call your bluff on this.

On malaysian regulation change....please present your present/past case/data where regulation change is outside the norm from other countries or that make malaysia unfavorable compare to other. I think the opposite is more true. Therefore I like to call your bluff again.

Common astute dude....you never want to response to me directly if you cant response to this....your whole projection/assumption is flawed.

 

[mpan12]

Ask again...what is the "elsewhere" investment recommend from your astute self?

There are group of people like to point this wrong that wrong and walk away....and there is other group that say this wrong and show the right way.....

What walk away? Who is walking away?

You asked me questions, am I at your beck and call to answer you asap and spoon feed you?

I wrote fairly long responses yesterday. So I needed a break. I wasn't escaping from any question.

However, having said that, I am under no obligation to give you the A-Z of the "elsewhere" for investment. Is this going to be a tit-for-tat session? I give you one other possible way of investment and you're all ready to shoot me down. I offer another, you try to shoot it down again. I don't wish it to be that way.

Of course there are many other investment opportunities out there. Even now. To turn things around, are you telling me there are no other good or less risky investments and by that fact, we are left with no choice but to invest in Iskandar?

The niggling issues on Iskandar have always been on the oversupply of properties, low rental, large land space available, lack of strong business presence, questionable planning policies, weak currency, flip-flop governance of the Malaysian authorities at the disadvantage of foreigners, etc.

Why don't YOU answer and deal with the above issues and show us unequivocally why they are not of concern for buyers of Iskandar condos? No one has convincingly and strongly refuted these issues which were posted months or a few years ago in this and other forums, even before your question on where is the "elsewhere" for investment. You want to have a shot at it?

 

[mpan12]

Read more: Is the Iskandar Property Market Wobbling or Collapsing? http://www.establishmentpost.com/property-market-iskandar-malaysia-correcting/#ixzz3wNheG4ZW
Thank you for reading The Establishment Post. Permission to reproduce material under the "fair use" principle is granted PROVIDED a link to the original source material is included with the cited material. The Establishment Post maintains © ownership on
Follow us: @EstabPost on Twitter | TheEstablishmentPost on Facebook

I said it before, when you read articles, you have to be discerning. You don't go to a food stall and ask the hawker: "Eh, is your food tasty?" Be a thinking investor, not someone who has too much spare cash and then ask your Huttons sales agent, "Can I buy Iskandar Residences? I want 3 units!"

Who are the ones saying all the good things in the article? The Malaysian authorities with vested interest. You give your money to me, of course I say you look handsome, you are the best, I will put your money to good use, etc.

Let me just lift off a small portion of the article and do a brief comment:

“Iskandar Malaysia’s prospects remains attractive due to its close proximity to Singapore, high job creation and migration growth rates, good infrastructure and generally accommodative investment policies."

Close proximity to Singapore -- So what? Do you have a good transport connection between Singapore and Iskandar? Can I take a train like MRT to travel conveniently into and out without wasting too much time? No. What are we facing here? Jams, jams, jams. Ok, so some may argue that's the present situation only. But are there concrete plans on a train system to connect the various parts of Nusajaya and link the different key locations of Iskandar? Nope. RTS? What RTS?

High job creation -- Ha.. please lar, Malaysians are flocking to Singapore to work due to the high earning power here and fantastic exchange rate! Who's going to work in Iskandar? You want Singaporeans to work there? Gotta be kidding. Sure, there are jobs created in Iskandar, but is it that attractive? Nope. So what high job creation they are talking about?

Migration growth rate -- Migration from where? Who? Singaporeans? See above. No plans for good transportation network, you want Singaporean families to uproot themselves from Singapore and migrate to, of all places, JB/Iskandar? You gotta be kidding again. Sure, some may do so. Maybe a selected portion of retirees. But show us hard data that there is a high number of Singaporeans or other people willing to migrate readily to Iskandar.

Good infrastructure -- Not sure at all what infrastructure they are talking about here.

Accommodative investment policies -- Wow, big word: "Accommodative". How so? Increasing suddenly foreigners' property investment amount from RM500k to RM1 million is accommodative?

 

[cybermad]

But isn't it a fact it's devoid of traffic and people? I don't mean people have to live there while it is under construction! Rather, I'm looking at it in relation to the oversupply issue and the prices buyers have (over)paid. Other than residential homes and hotel, what is being planned around the IR condo and its vicinity? Nothing much.

Moreover, it's not as if buyers paid on average RM300k (approximately RM100k) or so for a unit there. Even if the place sucks years later, your risk exposure is lower.

Back in 2010 and before, those who bought Iskandar houses paid at a low price. Yes, the place was also "dead" then, but their risk is also low. Now buyers are paying like what... RM700k to RM1million on average for a condo unit where the surroundings are just trees with no plans to build anything around it? That's very expensive by Malaysian standard! Come 2018 to 2020, where are your businesses and people coming from while facing the huge oversupply of condos? For those not retiring there, and with no ready pool of tenants, are the owners going back there every weekend just to "warm up" their sofas in the condos?

So far, no one has answered how the oversupply of overpriced properties will thrive in Iskandar. Cos you don't even know. I don't know too. That's the risk. You are only hoping something good will happen. Hope is not a wise way to invest. It's called a gamble.

if your premise is that u are talking in relation to the "oversupply", then state so and not when others question u.

No plans to build anything around it ? u been to Medini ? sure ? Educity is slated to hv abt 20K students, Legoland is doing v well, other international theme parks like six flags hv indictated interest, HSR being planned, convention center to be built at nearby PH together with linkage to SG harborfront, Tuas Link MRT completing this year ( stone throw from 2nd link) etc

 

[Frodo]

I think you should not nitpick and use the word "assumption" strictly in its exact meaning.

Let me ask you a question: Before you leave home, you notice the sky has dark clouds and strong wind is blowing. Will you bring an umbrella with you before going out in the open? If you are logical enough, you will. But am I reasonable to say: "That's an assumption you are making. You are assuming it will rain. But it may not!" I don't think I am reasonable to do that. This is what you are trying to say to me when you mentioned I had assumed things about Iskandar. Isn't it wise to assume it will likely rain when you see dark clouds in the sky?

If you are astute enough, you use present and past facts and data to deduce whether it is worth it to invest in something. Of course, different people have different risk appetite. If you are a high-risk taker, you may not mind losing big. But that's besides the point.

You have been presented with enough data and facts, past and present, about JB/Iskandar properties. You know how Malaysia functions.... its governance, politics, currency exchange, etc. There is nothing to hide. It's whether one bothers to read them in detail and use them in relation to what he is investing.

Of course we need to do projection for the future. But only if you base it on valid and logical facts. We are not gods you know. If you don't even project in an intelligent way how the future will likely turn out, then we can never do any investment. Are you going to wait until you receive a message from god to say something definite is about to happen before you make a decision? Of course not!

Like I said, there is no right or wrong way of looking at things. You may have avoided Singapore properties cos you don't earn enough or have enough money to buy them, and thus, you go to Iskandar. Or you may have bought it because you thought how good it felt when you didn't even have to fork out a lot for downpayment. That's fine if it works for you.

Like I also wrote, I didn't say Iskandar will definitely be a flop. But I have been maintaining my stand that it's a high risk form of investment. How is one going to dispute that? At the end of the day, the money belongs to you. No one can tell you whether you should buy or not to buy. But I still will fall back on the facts if I want to make intelligent decisions. I still reiterate Iskandar has many downsides. The 2013 fake "boom" is not even the "up" side of the property cycle. It's an artificial spike in buying spree when many buyers rushed in to buy due to herd mentality.

Huh? Is there a less exact meaning of assumption? I am using that term in its normal usage…that underlying claims and arguments are always assumptions made, stated or unstated. I am not arguing with you about whether assumptions made are reasonable or not, I am simply pointing out that your claims are based on assumptions made.

Seeing dark clouds means it is wise to bring along an umbrella just in case…it does not mean you must not go out at all. It may also mean adjust timing of going out. Or else be prepared to weather the storm since it is temporary only…..

I think an astute investor will be able to see beyond the past facts and present data and see what the future holds. The past does not determine the future but it is information we can use to chart the future course. Hmmm…isn’t that how Singapore came to be successful, that despite the almost insurmountable odds our leaders had the gumption to risk it…because they had a vision? I believe Iskandar Malaysia do have a vision for the future to be successful. It may take a IM50 like our SG50 to look back and see how far things have come…but there are short term investments and long term investments…and I believe properties usually fall under the long term investment category. Yes, it is also a matter of risk appetite. To be honest, I have no money to risk losing when I bought my first property in JB. It was for own stay, and with my rented HDB as a cushion and buffer we simply bit the bullet and moved. I don’t have the money to upgrade my HDB flat, much less to buy a private property in Singapore so it wasn’t a case of avoiding private properties in Singapore but more a case of no chance to avoid it at all! We were presented with all the “facts and data” of buying into JB that you mentioned, we did not ignore them, we just felt our need to move was greater than all the problems people tell us. Some things we can’t change, like politics or currency movements, but there are still things we can adjust to make the move less painful. The Singapore govt has done a great job by conditioning us to be kiasi and kiasu and pretty much to stay within the comfort zone, even though many are not really comfortable.

Regarding projection for the future, back in 2006, what future did most people “see” for Johor and the Iskandar project? Did they see oversupply in 2018? Did they envision the things that have already happened now? Even though critics keep saying that we should not think JB is like Singapore, it is ironical that these same people keep using Singapore as a benchmark to measure JB! I agree that JB is NOT Singapore, it probably lacks behind a couple of decades….but it can aspire to be Singapore-like, and there is no denial of the dynamics between JB and Singapore by the sheer proximity alone of these two states. The fortunes of JB will be intricately and inevitably tied to Singapore, for better or for worse.

I am not an investment person simply because I don’t have money to invest…so to be honest a lot of the things people have against Iskandar was not relevant to me. I needed to move out of HDB and get rental from HDB to secure a better future for my family instead of depending on just one salary alone (and I am just an average income earner and not like those with high salary). But even setting that aside, I don’t agree that investing in JB is a lost cause. Like I said, not all JB properties are equal. There will be properties that are ideal as investments and those that are less ideal, or even should be avoided. People who wish to invest spare cash into JB properties should open their eyes to see beyond just the glossy brochures. Those with no cash should just close their eyes and don't look for properties to invest ANYWHERE. And since JB is so close there is simply no excuse not to make a few trips over to explore and see things for themselves, unlike investing in faraway countries. Yes at present you can point out many downsides…but as you admitted also you are not saying it will definitely be a flop. I don’t believe Iskandar will be a flop…but I believe there will be developments within Iskandar that will be a flop…and there will be failed investment decisions made by individuals. But that’s part and parcel of life…there is simply no guarantee of success….herd mentality or not…if someone has chosen of his own free will to make a decision he just have to be man enough to live with that decision even if he regrets it.

 

[Frodo]

I said it before, when you read articles, you have to be discerning. You don't go to a food stall and ask the hawker: "Eh, is your food tasty?" Be a thinking investor, not someone who has too much spare cash and then ask your Huttons sales agent, "Can I buy Iskandar Residences? I want 3 units!"

Who are the ones saying all the good things in the article? The Malaysian authorities with vested interest. You give your money to me, of course I say you look handsome, you are the best, I will put your money to good use, etc.

Let me just lift off a small portion of the article and do a brief comment:

“Iskandar Malaysia’s prospects remains attractive due to its close proximity to Singapore, high job creation and migration growth rates, good infrastructure and generally accommodative investment policies."

Close proximity to Singapore -- So what? Do you have a good transport connection between Singapore and Iskandar? Can I take a train like MRT to travel conveniently into and out without wasting too much time? No. What are we facing here? Jams, jams, jams. Ok, so some may argue that's the present situation only. But are there concrete plans on a train system to connect the various parts of Nusajaya and link the different key locations of Iskandar? Nope. RTS? What RTS?

High job creation -- Ha.. please lar, Malaysians are flocking to Singapore to work due to the high earning power here and fantastic exchange rate! Who's going to work in Iskandar? You want Singaporeans to work there? Gotta be kidding. Sure, there are jobs created in Iskandar, but is it that attractive? Nope. So what high job creation they are talking about?

Migration growth rate -- Migration from where? Who? Singaporeans? See above. No plans for good transportation network, you want Singaporean families to uproot themselves from Singapore and migrate to, of all places, JB/Iskandar? You gotta be kidding again. Sure, some may do so. Maybe a selected portion of retirees. But show us hard data that there is a high number of Singaporeans or other people willing to migrate readily to Iskandar.

Good infrastructure -- Not sure at all what infrastructure they are talking about here.

Accommodative investment policies -- Wow, big word: "Accommodative". How so? Increasing suddenly foreigners' property investment amount from RM500k to RM1 million is accommodative?

As I also mentioned before, eating food is a low cost decision and involves far less considerations compared to a property purchase. Even if I believe the hawker and eat his food, it can still be that his food is as tasty as he claimed. Moreover food is a matter of personal taste buds and preferences.

Of course people selling their products will say good things about their products. It’s not their fault for doing that. The onus is for listeners to check whether the claims made are credible. You cannot simply dismiss their claims simply because they have vested interests. Can you separate the claims from the person making the claims?

Regarding the close proximity to Singapore, you said “So what? Do you have a good transport connection between Singapore and Iskandar? Can I take a train like MRT to travel conveniently into and out without wasting too much time? No.” See what I mean about critics telling people on one hand not to think JB is like Singapore, yet on the other hand want to tell people to think that JB should be like Singapore? For the sake of argument, can I also employ this line of argument against buying an Australia property? Eh, can take MRT to Australia from Singapore or not without wasting too much time? Of course not. We are talking about crossing borders here. And it is NOT the case that the causeways are being jammed 24/7! Peak hours traffic are a fact of life everywhere! Even if the transport facilities are up, I am sure you still expect to have jams. In fact, one can say that the traffic in Singapore is going to be even worst with the projected numbers of people coming in. The fact is that for Malaysia you do need a car, even if the RTS is in place. Again critics have to resist stepping on their own foot and using Singapore to compare with Malaysia. Singapore is small, connectivity is easy. To expect the RTS to be like our MRT is just wishful thinking. To me it would be a godsend if they can get Singaporeans across to JB in lesser time during peak hours! Get the RTS stations working between Chagar and Woodlands is already light years improvement.

Regarding high job creation. The fact is that there are jobs created in Iskandar.…or else how the cranes and construction take place? I don’t know how high must be high, or whether the litmus test have to be that Singaporeans must be flocking to Iskandar to work or else it’s a false claim. Singaporeans are not a contented lot, by and large. But I think many Malaysians are contented to have a job and a roof over their heads working in Malaysia.

Regarding migration growth rate. You said there are no plans for good transportation network. Again by good are you referring to Singapore standard transportation? The fact is that there are plans to make transportation better within Iskandar and across the borders. Sure, there are no hard data to show that Singaporeans are just waiting to migrate to Iskandar…simply because no one took the poll! Perhaps if a country study was conducted the results may be contrary to what you think.

Regarding good infrastructure you said mockingly “Not sure at all what infrastructure they are talking about here.” Can you say that the infrastructure now is NO DIFFERENT from 10 or 20 years ago? We have the EDL, the coastal highways….these are significant improvements…even the Pasir Gudang Highway is being wiidened….and the Southkey road was widened and opened last year when just a few years earlier it was a miserable narrow lane roads that was always jammed.

Regarding accommodative investment policies, you said that the increase in minimum sum from RM500k to RM1 million was not accommodative at all. I wonder, just wondering, whether you were just upset that they upped the minimum sum and you missed the boat of buying into JB for lesser? Anyway….it is reality that each govt will impose policies to benefit their own people. Or put in place measures to prevent or to address a problem. Even our own Singapore also come up with the tightened lending ration, surely some will see it as a kill-investment policy too….but why no one complain about that….or is it a case of just being selective?

 

[freekazoid]

I said it before, when you read articles, you have to be discerning. You don't go to a food stall and ask the hawker: "Eh, is your food tasty?" Be a thinking investor, not someone who has too much spare cash and then ask your Huttons sales agent, "Can I buy Iskandar Residences? I want 3 units!"

Who are the ones saying all the good things in the article? The Malaysian authorities with vested interest. You give your money to me, of course I say you look handsome, you are the best, I will put your money to good use, etc.

Let me just lift off a small portion of the article and do a brief comment:

“Iskandar Malaysia’s prospects remains attractive due to its close proximity to Singapore, high job creation and migration growth rates, good infrastructure and generally accommodative investment policies."

Close proximity to Singapore -- So what? Do you have a good transport connection between Singapore and Iskandar? Can I take a train like MRT to travel conveniently into and out without wasting too much time? No. What are we facing here? Jams, jams, jams. Ok, so some may argue that's the present situation only. But are there concrete plans on a train system to connect the various parts of Nusajaya and link the different key locations of Iskandar? Nope. RTS? What RTS?

High job creation -- Ha.. please lar, Malaysians are flocking to Singapore to work due to the high earning power here and fantastic exchange rate! Who's going to work in Iskandar? You want Singaporeans to work there? Gotta be kidding. Sure, there are jobs created in Iskandar, but is it that attractive? Nope. So what high job creation they are talking about?

Migration growth rate -- Migration from where? Who? Singaporeans? See above. No plans for good transportation network, you want Singaporean families to uproot themselves from Singapore and migrate to, of all places, JB/Iskandar? You gotta be kidding again. Sure, some may do so. Maybe a selected portion of retirees. But show us hard data that there is a high number of Singaporeans or other people willing to migrate readily to Iskandar.

Good infrastructure -- Not sure at all what infrastructure they are talking about here.

Accommodative investment policies -- Wow, big word: "Accommodative". How so? Increasing suddenly foreigners' property investment amount from RM500k to RM1 million is accommodative?

this respond simply demonstrate how low you willing to go just to console yourself. Please don't diminish into the night because its fun...to get your thought process

rain analogy given also lousy...depends on who, where, when and what purpose....only then decision to bring umbrella....not dark cloud, then must bring.

Further more again you ran from my questions:
1. WHat is elsewhere investment?
2. How do you come up with 20yrs upwards parameter?
3. How do you come up with msia regulation being detrimental?