Is A Coup Due In Thailand ?

kensington · Mar 13, 2010

kensington · Mar 13, 2010

Jaran Ditta-apichai insists on non-violence, and his non-violence requires mobilizing as many people as possible.

‘Why do we expect a million? Because we use non-violence. A fight with non-violence is decided by the number of people. Even with over 200,000 people in April [2009], it was not successful. The number is the deciding factor of victory. If the UDD didn’t use non-violence, we wouldn’t need a lot of people. 20,000 well-trained people would be enough.’

In the lead-up to the rally, the UDD has tried to clean up its image by keeping out persons like Seh Daeng or Gen Panlop Pinmanee. The planning this time is not centralized like before, as the leaders have travelled to meetings with local leaders in the regions. The organization of the rally will be more efficient, as the leaders will stay with their own people and any moves will have to be decided in meetings, Jaran said.

According to Weng Tojirakan, the planning has been done by about 40 core leaders in Bangkok and from the provinces, who agree on the non-violent approach and will try to prevent the mistakes of Songkran last year. During the rally, demonstrators will be grouped according to province and region, with security and medical units. Some 2,000 non-violent troops will be on alert, and will move to spots where skirmishes occur.

‘We’ve had them trained in the principles [of non-violence], to keep control of their temper when problems arise, to lessen the conditions of confrontation. But we have not yet prepared for a situation where soldiers open fire. It would be too scary,’ Weng said.

Besides the non-violent troops, Jaran said that they had trained guards from Bangkok and the provinces. They have been trained to get a common understanding of their duty and their attitude towards the people, and to be prepared to deal with skirmishes. The UDD has also organized many training sessions during the past year for the red shirts to participate in the rally with more discipline.

Wiphuthalaeng Phatthanaphumthai talked about the lessons they had learned from Songkran last year, in which some of the red shirts wanted a quick victory, so they initiated their own moves. This time, they will move together.

During the Songkran rally, a group of taxi drivers split away to close off the Victory Monument, and the UDD leaders had to allocate some red shirts to join them. The move received both applauses and curses. Shinnawat Habunpad, leader of the taxi drivers, insisted that this time they had planned no such moves.

The rally is scheduled to start on 12 March in 6 protest sites around Bangkok.

‘Our strategy for 12 March is to make tremors on a seismic scale. We want to be perceived as coming from all directions,’ Jaran said.

The activities on that day will be rituals and speeches until 6PM, and then they will gather at the Phan Fah bridge.

Mainung Kor Kunathi said that the activities at all sites will start at 12.12AM on 12 March.

The sites will be the Laksi Monument, the Taksin Monument, the Dindaeng Triangle, Lumphini Park, Bang Na, Thung Song Hong, and probably some additional places.

Some leaders have gone to the provinces and will come to Bangkok with the masses. Natthawut Saikua will be at the centre at the People’s Channel, collecting information.

There will be no road blockades. However, the traffic may get worse on 14 March when more red shirts will be pouring in.

Jaran expected at least 40,000 red shirts in Bangkok to come out. He said this would be the first time in history that people in the central region would rise up. Unlike the northern and northeastern red shirts who are motivated from a love of Thaksin, the central red shirts are motivated by a rejection of double standards and the lack of democracy, he said.

Suphorn Atthawong, UDD leader from the Northeast, said that leaders in each province had confirmed the number of 300,000 people. They have prepared food and clothing for a one-week stay.

‘So many people want to come. But the problem is we don’t have enough cars. The Transport Ministry has threatened bus companies not to serve us. Their licenses will not be renewed, if they do,’ Suphorn said.

He said their numbers would be so high that the authorities could not bar them from coming through checkpoints.

Jaran seems to try to emphasize the line of non-violence, but another red-shirt leader has been heavily criticized for outrageous remarks he recently made to encourage the red shirts to bring bottles of gasoline to fight in the face of suppression or a coup.

‘I said that if the people are hurt and suppressed, they have the right to fight. The gasoline is in their cars’ tanks, and bottles can be found anywhere. It was straight talking. If we intended to use violence, we would not have mobilized so many people,’ Arisman Pongruangrong said.

‘I stress that we will never use violence. We will take care of the people’s security, with our guards keeping alert and screening for weapons. But if the government orders suppression, we’re not sure if we can keep control of the people’s reactions. We start from non-violence, we will be peaceful and without weapons. If suppressed, the rally will become a riot. And it’s not easy to predict who will win in the end,’ Arisman said.

Jaran said they would try their best to avoid violence.

‘We will not lead them to peril. Because if we lose, we will lose severely. And who knows when we will ever be able to stand up again,’ he said.

Ramseth · Mar 13, 2010

What's certain is that there'll be no military coup for the time being, as Abhisit Vejjajiva has the support of the military. A military clamp-down on red-shirts is more likely if protests grow to a scale they can't tolerate. However, by the next election, if a Thaksin Shinawatra faction figure wins over the PM seat, another coup couldn't be ruled out.

kensington · Mar 13, 2010

Thousands of red shirts are heading for Bangkok from several provinces to take part in tomorrow's mass rally.

Some have been making merit and praying for victory, while others are bringing stocks of food and clothes to be able to camp out for several days.

The reinforcement of protesters from upcountry will play a crucial role for the red-shirt movement, given that the turnout at six Bangkok-based rally sites was rather low yesterday. Despite the red-shirt leaders' promise to mobilise up to a million people, less than 10,000 protesters showed up at the sites.

Many sources say the number of protesters from the provinces will not be huge. In fact, one of them said the number being mobilised from the Northeast was 30 per cent lower than expected.

"Many locals have backtracked because they were being paid less. Initially, they were each promised Bt2,000 plus free petrol, but when they were ready to head for Bangkok, they were told that they would only get Bt1,500 and would have to pay for the petrol themselves," a source said.

Yet, red-shirts were busy across the country yesterday, with several Pheu Thai MPs seen facilitating the protesters' trip to Bangkok.

In Si Sa Ket, Pheu Thai MP Thanet Kruarat reportedly allowed the red shirts to fill up their vehicles for free at his petrol station. Each of these vehicles was emblazoned with a sticker that proclaimed: "We Will Reclaim Democracy".

"We will rally peacefully," Si Sa Ket red-shirt leader Dr Sawai Sodsai said, adding that his province alone would provide at least 3,000 demonstrators.

So far, more than 1,000 protesters each from Maha Sarakham and Ubon Ratchathani have shown up, along with more than 3,000 from Khon Kaen. In the North, hundreds of vehicles were filled up yesterday, which took them as far as Nakhon Sawan last night.

Leaders insisted that the number of protesters would swell to more than 100,000 by the time they leave for the capital today.

Supporters from the South, which is considered a Democrat stronghold, included 200 people from Krabi and 100 from Phatthalung.

"We will fight with the Democratic Alliance against Dictatorship until the end to help Thaksin Shinawatra return as prime minister. But if the DAAD retreats, we will do so as well," Sukij Singto said in his capacity as leader of the Krabi 53 Group.

He added that his group would cover travel expenses for the protesters before it is reimbursed in Bangkok.

Meanwhile, the red shirts booed Deputy Prime Minister Suthep Thaugsuban when he showed up in Ayutthaya's Wang Noi district to inspect the police checkpoint. Authorities have put up numerous police checkpoints between Bangkok and seven other provinces.

kensington · Mar 13, 2010

From Bangkok Pundit...

whether or not Abhisit can just "wait it out" depends on how the red shirts plan to get to Bangkok as well as what they plan to do once they get there. If they converge on Bangkok in an orderly fashion, proceed to their 4-6 rally sites, and then meet on Rachadamnoen Ave. for a large but peaceful demonstration that takes place in a relatively small/confined area, the government can wait it out as long as it wants. The way the reds' strategy was conceived, however, doesn't exactly guarantee this outcome.

Assuming that the red shirts can mobilize a few hundred thousand people, if they descend on Bangkok in a way that chokes movement in and out of the city and use their pick-up trucks, farm trucks, and taxis to paralyze traffic in Bangkok itself, the situation might become untenable for the government within a matter of hours. At that point, how the stand-off is resolved will hinge on which side manages best the resulting disorder.

The red shirts will try to use it as evidence that the government cannot really govern; the government and the security forces will try to use it as a way to delegitimize the red shirts. In the face of protracted disorder, it seems to me that the government will have no choice but to either dissolve the House or crack down. A crackdown will be made easier by the breakout of episodes of violence or property destruction that reflect poorly on the red shirts (indeed, some such episodes are likely to be instigated for that very purpose by the government itself). Repression on a relatively large scale, however, carries risks of at least three kinds for the government.

First, the regime runs the risk of losing the perception battle with the public at large if the crackdown looks excessive and heavy-handed.

Second, if there is any truth to this idea of the "watermelon army" (I have seen some evidence of that myself, first-hand), it runs the risk of seeing parts of the army/police actually turn against their superiors before they shoot on their family members.

Third, a crackdown could potentially widen the front. An article in Matichon yesterday indicated that the reds have contingency plans to send reinforcements into Bangkok and take over the provincial governments of a couple dozen provinces in the event of a violent crackdown. If that were to happen, putting down the red shirts by force runs an ever greater risk of making the government look brutal/incompetent --- to say nothing of the fact that the potential for mutiny among the security forces increases as the government is forced to rely on soldiers that are less ideological and perhaps not as well trained.

It may also be difficult for the red shirts to block traffic - whether by design or as a by-product of the protest (i.e 20,000 cars to park and all the people at various sites will block traffic) - as according to Col. Sanserm, army spokesman, on NBT yesterday that one of the regulations issued pursuant to the Internal Security Act is that the security officials can block traffic from entering Bangkok. He said that pick-up trucks and vans with non-Bangkok license plates will require a "pass" to enter Bangkok and those transporting red shirts will not be allowed into Bangkok. He then said the authorities will transport the protesters from the checkpoints (should note that on Thursday night, government spokesman Panitan stated on ThaiPBS the same thing in regards to the government transport the red shirts by buses). He said the ban didn't apply to sedans - no doubt because only "educated" people drive such vehicles.

How rigorously this will be enforced remains to be seen. Also, on how good the government logistics in transporting people also remains to be seen.

This, and also due to that the establishment is no on their side, is why we may not see protracted disorder by the red shirts that the yellow shirts were able to cause, but to be honest BP has no idea what will happen this weekend. There are so many variables and we have not seen enough by the mainly symoblic protests on Friday to know what will transpire.

kensington · Mar 13, 2010

The Bank of Thailand has urged financial institutions to temporarily close their branches in government buildings, especially if state agencies in the area are ordered closed by the government.

In a circular issued yesterday, the central bank said the traffic could get worse until March 23 due to the anti-government rally, and massive crowds could lead to unusual developments in and around Bangkok.

Meanwhile, the Tourism and Sports Ministry has set up a Tourist Assistance Centre and opened Hotline 1672 to serve tourists around the clock.

Fuel stations nationwide are also allowed to suspend services if the situation deteriorates.

The Bank of Thailand has told banks that their headquarters should refuse to deal with individual clients, though money-market operations and the payment system can proceed as usual. Branches located near rally sites can be shut down with the central bank's consent.

Should anything unusual take place, the Bank of Thailand will only maintain money-market services and the payment system, which involves the clearing of cheques and BahtNet operations.

So far, 10 banks and a non-banking institution have asked for permission to close a total of 24 branches.

The Bangkok Mass Transit Authority has made available 50 buses to cover busy routes, a source from the Transport Ministry said yesterday. All drivers have been advised to remain neutral and the protesters have been told to not destroy buses.

BMTA director Opas Phetmunee said private bus operators should stop covering routes deemed dangerous, adding that the agency had measures in place to protect passengers' safety. Staff at the United Nations headquarters, where 24 UN agencies are located, were also told to leave an hour early yesterday due to concerns that the red shirts might paralyse Rajdamneon Avenue. They were also instructed to work from home on Monday.

The Thai Association of Landscape Architects postponed its International Landscape Expo 2010 to April 1-4 out of concern over the red-shirt rally. The event was originally scheduled for March 18 to 21 at the Crystal Design Centre on Ekamai-Ram Indra Road.

TCC Capital Land has indefinitely delayed the launch of its residential project, Villa Asoke, which was scheduled for March 19.

However, the Home Product Centre will keep the doors open for its HomePro Expo at Impact Muang Thong Thani.

The organiser remains optimistic that the 10-day event, which kicked off yesterday, will generate Bt650 million.

HomePro managing director Khunawut Thumpomkul said the firm was ready to move sales personnel from the site if the protesters started blocking important places, though he believes the venue is far enough away from the rally sites.

Severe traffic jams in the city are expected. Individuals hoping to go out can call the National Electronics and Computer Technology Centre on (02) 565 7007 for traffic updates.

The agency is also offering real-time traffic information through twitter.com/traffy, along with mobile text messages.

kensington · Mar 13, 2010

A few quotes from the sidelines :

Supalak in The Nation (yes, The Nation) A VERY YELLOWED PRESS

The government, with collaboration from the mainstream media, managed to portray itself as an angel and the red-shirt group as former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra's evil lackeys - ready to use all violent means to bring their boss back to power. Visions of last April's bloodshed have been planted in the public mind many times a day to show the red-shirt group is nothing but a bloodthirsty monster.

Even a foreign diplomat like British Ambassador Quinton Quayle subscribed to such discourse as he rushed to see Pheu Thai Party leader Yongyut Wichaidit on Tuesday, to urge the party with its strong links to the red shirts not to use violence in the weekend demonstrations.

Nobody knows what exactly will happen this weekend, but Deputy Prime Minister Suthep Thaugsuban floated many ideas and led the public to understand the red protesters would explode at some 40 locations around Bangkok.

IPS on the media. First, Pravit:

"Thai society is very divided politically and I don't think the mass media are helping at all. Rather, they have become part of this political division," Pravit Rojanaphruk, a senior journalist at the English-language daily 'The Nation', said in an interview.
...
Pravit explains that majority of the mainstream media have become polarised into the 'yellow' – the colour of the supporters of the government and those against Thaksin -- and 'red' media.
...
For Pravit, space must be created for all sides in the fractious political scene to express themselves. "I think we have to open the space for different voices to end this division once and for all."
...
But in truth, the pro-Thaksin supporters' mistrust of the mainstream media has some basis, Pravit explains.

"After the September 2006 coup d'etat that ousted Thaksin, the editorials that came out in the mainstream media all declared the coup as justifiable and I think that was the genesis of the view that mainstream media are anti-red shirts," he said.

BP: A number of large media outlets cearly are aligned with one side, particularly the yellows as the article also states:

In a society so divided politically – as it has been since the 2006 military coup against Thaksin – there is only a small percentage of Thai media that try to fairly present both sides of the story, according to Chiranuch Premchaiporn, editor of the independent web newspaper Prachatai.com.

"I think only about 30 percent are trying to present balanced stories about this current political situation. The rest all have taken sides," she said.
....
"Most of the stories we see now in relation to the rallies is a projection of how the violence will happen. We don't see them questioning the government side on how they're going to commit to using non-violent measures when trying to contain the crowd, for example," she said.
...
It is unfortunate that some media institutions "seem to want to sow panic and fear in the society (by the kind of stories they release)," adds Chiranuch.

BP: For most of last week, you had half a dozen Democrats talking how there would be violence with 30-40 bombs in Bangkok. This seems to reduce in number by yesterday (will try to do a couple of posts on the claims). Panic sells papers though....

IPS with the views of another journalist:

"A big mess" is how a journalist working for a leading Bangkok-based daily, who requested anonymity, calls the Thai media when it comes to covering the political tensions in the country.

" 'Bangkok Post' seems to be leaning towards the 'centre red', while 'The Nation' is now extreme yellow. In that sense, you have a balance of views," quipped the journalist, referring to the two English-language dailies in Thailand.

He added: "'Bangkok Post' seems to take sadistic glee in running reds-related stories to make the yellow feel downtrodden while 'The Nation' runs yellow stories to make the reds feel rotten. I think both sides want to win."

BP: Bangkok Post is centre red?? Really? Well, in comparison with The Nation they are a bastion of neutrality, but wouldn't say they are centre red. For other Suranand, you have Veera, Atiya and Nattaya.

Plenty of other quotes from that IPS article.

For TV news, in BP's opinion, ThaiPBS' evening news and late news/interview segment have the best political coverage and try to be impartial. For the print media, well, it varies so widely.

btw, should we assume by his referring, sarcastically, to the red shirts being "evil lackeys" that Supalak is a BP reader?

What this really meant is the Free Press in Thailand is indeed a sychopantic press aligned to the government and they are more interested in foretelling the possible havocs that could be blamed on the Red Shirts later on. Both English language Newspapers are extremely yellow in their editorials no matter what day it is.

CALL 0800-Dial-A-Coup for your coup news update.

kensington · Mar 15, 2010

"This is the biggest rally by rural people who have come to Bangkok making demands on national political issues," says Thanet Aphornsuvan, a historian at Bangkok’s Thammasat University. "This is phenomenal. It should come as a shock to Bangkok’s political system."

An unprecedented show of force by men and women from Thailand’s rural hinterland was on display over the weekend as they poured into Bangkok in the tens of thousands to stake a claim on having a voice in shaping this South-east Asian kingdom’s national agenda.

By Saturday evening, an estimated 80,000 anti-government protesters from the northern and north-eastern belts of Thailand had been ferried in to the capital in a scene never witnessed since the country became a constitutional monarchy in 1932, say analysts, who described it as "phenomenal" and "a historic moment."

The protests, which are planned to peak on Monday, had the initial look of an army of soccer fans coming to watch a pivotal game.

There was a festive air, with loud music playing, as a convoy of thousands of pick-up trucks, larger six-wheel vehicles, vans and buses clogged a main highway leading into Bangkok. They were cheered on by hundreds of people who lined the streets during the final 65-kilometre stretch from Wang Noi district, close to the historic city of Ayutthaya.

But it was the colour that they sported – the signature red shirts, with anti- government slogans on some – that affirmed this was an assertion of political identity and mobilisation by a constituency often marginalised and dismissed by Bangkok’s conservative political machine in the firm grip of the entrenched elite, royalists and the powerful military.

Each vehicle also flew the flag of the red shirts, who belong to the United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD), a protest movement whose political patron is the fugitive former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra.

Some of these "rural hordes," as the pro-establishment English-language daily the ‘Bangkok Post’ contemptuously referred to this UDD assertion of strength, included the likes of Narong Unsri, a retired radio operator who had worked in a natural gas drilling company. The 62-year-old had journeyed for 12 hours with seven others in a van until Wang Noi. Others, like Ruakchai Sitilwan, employed in a marketing network, had spent 18 hours on the road with four others in a pick-up truck.

Nearly 80 percent of those from the 19 north-eastern provinces who had come in the convoy were farmers, says Narong, sipping on iced coffee. "We are going to Bangkok to tell the government that we need an election because this government is a hijacked government."

Narong was referring to the question of legitimacy around the 15-month- old coalition government of Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva. Rather than winning through a popular mandate through an election, he came to power after the powerful military shaped a backroom deal to ensure that he got an endorsement in a parliamentary vote.

On Saturday night, speakers at the rally site railed against other favourite objects of their ire, ranging from the "double standards" in the country’s political system to criticism of the political aristocracy that they say wields power without having been elected or being held accountable.

The UDD’s rally in Bangkok, underway in areas that have been the sites of major anti-government protests in the past, has been billed as a "million- man" protest to force the Abhisit administration to dissolve parliament and go for an election.

While the UDD’s target of one million protesters is far from being reached, the political significance of Thailand’s rural following camping out in the capital to influence political change has already been achieved.

"This is the biggest rally by rural people who have come to Bangkok making demands on national political issues," says Thanet Aphornsuvan, a historian at Bangkok’s Thammasat University. "This is phenomenal. It should come as a shock to Bangkok’s political system."

"It shows the capacity of rural political mobilisation of a new kind," he added in an interview with IPS. "A long-held view that rural people vote governments in and Bangkok people get them out (through protests) is not absolute anymore. We are seeing the opposite of that today."

The last time farmers of significant numbers flooded the streets of the Thai capital was in the early 1990s. An estimated 20,000 of them were brought in by the Assembly of the Poor, a network of non-governmental organisations, to protest against a range of specific issues from development and dam construction to land problems. They stayed for over a week outside Government House, the prime minister’s office.

Since then, farmers’ associations from the provinces have brought in smaller numbers to raise a cry outside Government House against unfair prices for their agriculture products. At most, these groups have mustered some 5,000 demonstrators.

"In the past, Bangkok has witnessed people from rural areas come to the capital for issue-based protests," says Naruemon Thabchumpon, a political scientist at Chulalongkorn University here. "This time, they want to take on national issues and want to come direct to the city to make their demands."

"It is one step forward for democracy," she explained to IPS. "We are seeing a new form of identity politics. They are proud to show that they are red shirts and happy to be identified with what the UDD is standing for."

The Abhisit administration, however, sees the UDD rally in a different light. "I think it is being led by a personality cult," Thai Foreign Minister Kasit Piromya said on Friday to a group of foreign correspondents, referring to Thaksin, whose face adorns many of the protesters’ shirts.

"The demonstrators are only backing one political personality," he added. "We have answered their grievances through two (economic) stimulus packages."

But UDD leaders say they are bent on stepping up their protests, although the Prime Minister has repeatedly rejected calls for his resignation or new polls and said he will carry out his term. "I have the right to complete my term," Abhisit said during his weekly television broadcast on Sunday, adding that his government had been accepted widely.

The triumph of this military-backed administration in December 2008 had enraged supporters of Thaksin, many of whom back the UDD. The current Abhisit-led coalition replaced a pro-Thaksin party that had been elected a year before, in December 2007, but was dissolved following a controversial court verdict.

The Abhisit government came to power over two years after Thaksin’s second term was cut short in September 2006 by a military coup, the country’s 18th putsch, that sought to get rid of an administration that had won thumping majorities in two elections due to deep support in the rural heartland.

These electoral triumphs were shaped by a range of pro-poor policies that Thaksin implemented while he was in power, including universal health care and pumping in millions of dollars to build the grassroots economy.

The former prime minister, currently living in exile to avoid a two-year jail term for corruption, has seen his fortunes wane since his ouster. The billionaire telecommunications tycoon was stripped over 1.5 billion U.S. dollars of his assets by the Supreme Court in a late February verdict that found Thaksin guilty of corruption.

Rather than bury the influence Thaksin has on millions of rural voters, the court’s verdict added to the list of faults they attribute to the political aristocracy in Bangkok. "We see this as double standards by the justice system and we are here for the rally to say this must end," a 42-year-old woman who works in rice and sugarcane fields in the north-east province of Udon Thani, told IPS.

Source:
http://www.ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=50656

yinyang · Mar 15, 2010

Of blood promises, grenades.. latest turn of events after Abhisit's turning down ultimatum to dissolve parliament today

http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/local/171623/udd-next-move-scatter-blood

http://www.bangkokpost.com/breakingnews/171631/udd-to-take-blood-donation-tonight

yinyang · Mar 17, 2010

Seems red tide is petering out, but next stop is Abhisit's soi 31 residence (he's away):p Crowd down to 10k from high 100k from sun

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/afp_asiapacific/view/1044161/1/.html

Is A Coup Due In Thailand ?

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