Coalition government on even shakier ground
Although this latest conflict between the Democrats and the Bhumjaithai appears to have eased, the government’s stability remains at stake. It is only a matter of when, not if, the government will crumble.
The Bhumjaithai Party has backed off at the last minute in its hard-ball political game with the Democrats, after briefly courting the support of the opposition Puea Thai Party in the charter amendments match.
An uneasy truce appears to be back in place between the Democrats and their biggest partner after the whips of the six coalition parties agreed to indefinitely delay a joint debate in the parliament on two proposed constitutional amendments, which had been suddenly and unexpectedly scheduled to start today.
The government whips agreed it was not the right time to debate the two amendment motions – one proposed by Weng Tochirakarn, a strong supporter of ousted former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, and another motion endorsed by the five junior coalition partners. The whips agreed a debate right now could unnecessarily fire up political emotions.
But the truce is only temporary and will last only until another bitter schism again divides the prime minister's party and its smaller partners.
House Speaker Chai Chidchob, of the Bhumjaithai Party, made a shocking move on Wednesday when he decided to schedule the two motions for proposed charter changes for debate at the joint session of the Senate and House today.
His move was quickly interpreted as Bhumjaithai’s most daring challenge yet to the Democrats, and was reportedly in response to the Democrat's own backstabbing of the junior party.
Deputy Prime Minister Trairong Suwannakhiri of the Democrat Party, who is in charge of economic affairs, announced this week that he would review the Bhumjaithai Party’s dust-free road projects under the Thai Khem Khaeng ecnomic stimulus programme.
Not surprisingly, this provoked an uproar as Bhumjaithai leader Chavarat Charnveerakul, also the interior minister, immediately raised strong objections.
The relationship between the prime minister and his five junior partners has been strained almost to the limit since the Democrats rejected their proposals to amend the constitution, especially the proposed move from a multi-MP to a single-seat constituency electoral system. The five parties decided to go ahead on their own and submitted an amendment motion to the parliament.
Informed political sources said that not all the junior parties agreed with Bhumjaithai’s latest gamble, to court support from the Puea Thai Party by having Mr Chai put the two charter amendment motions – one by Mr Weng and the other by the coalition parties – on the agenda for debate at the same time.
Mr Weng’s amendment motion is a carbon copy of the old 1997 constitution with minor changes, the most controversial being the provisions relating to the Privy Council.
Meanwhile, the People’s Alliance for Democracy (PAD) has threatened to petition for the removal of the House speaker, accusing him of breaching Article 270 of the existing constitution. The PAD leaders say Mr Weng’s proposed charter, which was endorsed by about 70,000 signatories, is illegal because there is no organic law yet pertaining to public participation in charter amendments.
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Meanwhile, The Army's Vultures are circling above, jostling for career advancing movements, all the regimental commanders are singing the chorus " I wanna be a General."
The more pressure the red shirts are piling on ahead of the Feb 26 court verdict on Thaksin Shinawatra's assets seizure case, the more prepared the military has to be in coping with any kind of "situation".
Gen Thanasak Patimapakorn: in line to become Supreme Commander.
Even though the "people's army" idea floated by Puea Thai Party member General Panlop Pinmanee and army specialist Maj Gen Khattiya "Seh Daeng" Sawasdipol resulted in a verbal spat with Jatuporn Prompan, leader of the United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD), that "conflict" seems to have been cleared by ousted premier Thaksin.
The man in Dubai has made it clear that all fronts of the
red movement must be united for the coming
"big battle".
This development has prompted the army to go into "ready" mode.
Army Commander-in-Chief General Anupong Paojinda has ordered the military to stand by, to fulfil its duty if the government decides to invoke the Internal Security Act.
After all, the government had previously approved a budget of 177 million baht for the procurement of anti-riot equipment.
The seemingly tense situation is touching on people's raw nerves.
The government appears increasingly cornered with "no-exit" problems, such as conflicts with coalition parties and the issue of constitutional amendments. A dissolution of the House is an almost everyday question.
With fear of uncontrolled riots or clashes between protesters lurking in the background, many people speculate that the army might have to resort to staging another coup to bring back order, even though the army chief has repeatedly denied such a possibility.
Internally, speculation is rife within the barracks that, considering the political uncertainties, Gen Prayuth Chan-ocha, the deputy army commander, could be promoted to become the next army chief in a mid-year reshuffle to be announced in March and become effective in April.
The rush is to prevent an unexpected change in political leadership which could affect the choice of the new army chief.
This, of course, is assuming that the Abhisit government will not be able to last until the normal annual reshuffle season during August-September.
Coming in the same package is another rumour that under such a scenario, Gen Anupong could resign and take up the position of deputy prime minister in charge of security affairs or replace Gen Prawit Wongsuwon as defence minister, while Gen Prawit moves up to the deputy PM slot - or washes his hands of politics altogether.
"Gen Prawit does not want to be defence minister any more. He is bored with it but has to stay on to maintain the good relations between the army and the government," a source close to Gen Prawit revealed.
But then, countering the rumour is the fact that Gen Anupong has publicly announced that he would never enter politics, set up a political party or take on any political appointment, no matter who proffers the invitation.
Besides, according to a source in the army, the mid-year reshuffle traditionally does not involve a change in the existing commander or the appointment of a new commander.
"It is absolutely sure that Gen Anupong will serve as the army commander until retirement [in September]. Gen Prayuth will have to take the helm after that.
"It is possible, however, that the annual reshuffle list could be finished earlier than usual, such as within August, to put an end to uncertainties over the future of Gen Prayuth," the source said.
It does seem that all the preparatory work has been done to support Gen Prayuth's rise to the top.
His fellow Class 12 friends have been put into position. For example, Lt Gen Dapong Ratanasuwan, who is now deputy chief-of-staff, is slotted to become chief-of-staff to help Gen Prayuth when the latter succeeds Gen Anupong.
Lt Gen Thawatchai Samutsakhon, who is currently commanding-general of the 2nd Army Corps, looks set to become overall chief of the 2nd Army Area Command during this year's reshuffle. He will be in charge of the forces in the Northeast.
Likewise, the commander of the 3rd Army Corps, Lt Gen Wannathip Wongwai, is in line to be promoted to the 3rd Army Area Command, whose area of operation is in the North.
It's true that most of these commanders of the forces are considered Gen Anupong's men. But then again, since Gen Anupong and Gen Prayuth have grown from the same military units, their power base is generally the same.
The military has also prepared a successor to Supreme Commander Gen Songkitti Jaggabatara, who is due to retire in 2011. The choice is Gen Thanasak Patimapakorn, chairman of the advisory board of the Royal Thai Armed Forces Command.
If the power of Class 12 behind the leadership of class chairman Gen Prayuth is strong enough, Gen Thanasak could replace Gen Songkitti next year.
Otherwise, Gen Sathian Permthong-in, commanding general of the Armed Forces Development Command and chairman of Class 11, could warm the seat for one year before he retires in 2012.
Like Gen Prayuth, Gen Thanasak is known as Her Majesty the Queen's Guard. He commanded the formidable Taskforce 90 under the special warfare unit. He was also director of the anti-international terrorism centre.
At present, Gen Songkitti has assigned Gen Thanasak to supervise royal initiative projects and those in honour of the Royal Family, especially construction of an exhibition room to honour Their Majesties the King and Queen at the army headquarters on Chaeng Wattana Road.
It would be no exaggeration to state that, if everything goes as planned, Gen Prayuth and Gen Thanasak are set to become the army commander and supreme commander, respectively, whose main task will be to protect the monarchy against the increasingly volatile political developments.
Both Gen Prayuth and Gen Thanasak will be in service until 2013.
The only difference now is that one might reach the top position before the other.
http://www.bangkokpost.com/opinion/opinion/32684/the-military-change-of-guard