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I'm shopping on the stock market tomorrow.

nayr69sg

Super Moderator
Staff member
SuperMod
Just wondering sam do you look at technicals?

I find the charts useful in looking at historical data and what price points may be support levels.

Historically airnz has been around $1-$1.50 for 7 years between 2005 to 2012.

Personally if I am going to try catching falling knives I will go for those support levels. There is nothing on the chart that suggests to me $2 will be a support level besides the fact it is a round number.

As I said the fundamentals for the travel industry have turned very very bad because of the covid. It is different from just widespread fear causing the broad market to drop.

Would be better to buy other stocks that are broad based eg banks or other industries not related to travel so directly.

Just my thoughts. I am eyeing the Canadian banks. But not yet.

I also prefer to let the market become more stable than go in while it is on a roller coaster. But when it is on a roller coaster I will queue at those super bargain prices at support levels from the chart.

For airnz my assessment is to queue at $1.01
 

ilovechinesegal

Alfrescian
Loyal
m&d can buy stock??? I tot is haram!

Waiting for airbnb to go in ipo this yr but they are gonna to be delayed due to virus and expect them not to perform well tis yr! If they go in this yr and it would be great, it would drop like hell and after that buy and hold!
 

syed putra

Alfrescian
Loyal
m&d can buy stock??? I tot is haram!

Waiting for airbnb to go in ipo this yr but they are gonna to be delayed due to virus and expect them not to perform well tis yr! If they go in this yr and it would be great, it would drop like hell and after that buy and hold!
Airbnb will be a great buy! Its one of those services that can make owners of homes in good locations rich in mini steps by letting out 9n airbnb. Many of them have expanded by buying up their neighbours.
This cannot be done on uber as you can only drive one car at a time.
Plus travellers pay many days or weeks in advance to airbnb unlike uber.
Just heard Lufthansa will cut capacity by 50%. So it's not just Asians who stopped travelling.
 
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Leongsam

High Order Twit / Low SES subject
Admin
Asset
It's just semantics. Whenever one is buying something in anticipation of being able to sell it later at a higher price - that is speculation in my books, regardless of whether leverage is being used or not or how long one is willing to hold that position. What has worked before may not work again - a variant of the typical disclaimer on fund prospectuses: past performance is no guarantee of future results.



Could it be possible that your mistake in selling too soon was caused by the nerve wrenching experience you had when the price was dropping and you were averaging down without knowing whether or when you will ever get out of the hole which you had apparently dug for yourself?



Air NZ can go lower from here. Nobody knows for sure, but what the price action is telling you now is that the chances of it continuing to go lower is greater than the chance of it changing course to go higher. Yes, the market may change its feeling of the economic prospects for Air NZ and push the price higher from here, but what the market is telling you now is that the market is feeling now that the economic prospects for Air NZ are getting worse and therefore the price is going lower. Who knows when or if that market feeling will change. The market may be objectively wrong, but it is the demand and supply for Air NZ's shares that determines its price and not the demand and supply for Air NZ's services. The market can continue to be wrong for a very long time and excessively so before some catalyst causes it to change its attitude. That's how bubbles and panics are caused. The lowest price for Air NZ in recent memory is below $1, during the first half of 2012. There is nothing to prevent it from going there again before (and if) it rebounds. It is a probabilities game and should be played as such.

Air NZ is not a monopoly. It may have a monopoly on domestic air flights (low margin and small market), but I'm pretty sure many other airlines operate international flights to NZ. It may well be NZ's version of HSBC when it comes to being the bluest of blue chips in their respective markets, but looked what happened to HSBC. A client (unpleasant old lady) once asked (in 2008) if HSBC at HKD120 was a good price. She had already bought a large amount and is just wanting somebody to confirm her actions, so I gave her an appropriate answer - our firm has not been engaged to provide her with investment advisory services and therefore we will not be providing her with free investment advisory services. HSBC went all the way down to HKD30 and even today is only HKD51. So, assuming she has the nerves and the wherewithal to buy equal amounts at $10 intervals all the way down from HKD120, HKD110, HKD90, etc to HKD30, her average cost would be HKD75 per share - way above the present price of HKD 51.

You might say that with dividends of HKD4 per year for 11 years, she still came out tops - HKD51 + HKD 44 in dividends = HK95 per share implies profit over her cost of HKD75 per share. But that profit of 26.7% is over 11 years and when annualized is only 2% per annum - virtually the same as what she would have achieved if she put the money in fixed deposits for those 11 years. Which means she endured that nerve wrenching drop from HKD120 to HKD30 and those 11 years of waiting - for nothing - not to mention the opportunity costs of not using that money to buy other things when the time is "nearly" but not exactly right.

I've done what I need to do. Now I move on to other endeavors and will revisit the share prices when this coronavirus shit blows over.
 

eatshitndie

Alfrescian (Inf)
Asset
never try to catch a “falling knife”. will let “falling knife” drop until a vaccine proves successful. then the stock market will rebound to record highs.
 

krafty

Alfrescian (Inf)
Asset
GR.jpg
 

ilovechinesegal

Alfrescian
Loyal
Airbnb will be a great buy! Its one of those services that can make owners of homes in good locations rich in mini steps by letting out 9n airbnb. Many of them have expanded by buying up their neighbours.
This cannot be done on uber as you can only drive one car at a time.
Plus travellers pay many days or weeks in advance to airbnb unlike uber.
Just heard Lufthansa will cut capacity by 50%. So it's not just Asians who stopped travelling.

Uber cmi! They have negative net profit so they had been heavily reinvest plus many country had ban uber including sg. Unless u know a rich smart money guy wanna pump money into uber and create a fake short bull run.

Airbnb concern is the country imposing new regulation which will has more restriction and add more costs to them. And of course, this year virus would not expect them to be great but people in US still need to move state to state. Other than that i always interested in internet company because of low start up costs and high profit margin plus they do not need have regional office in any country.

Miss out on FB when they ipo because i still not interested in stock.
 

nayr69sg

Super Moderator
Staff member
SuperMod
I went shopping today.

Awesome sale and discounts. Panic selling. May be one time super sale for a while.

Bought 100 BMO shares at $79.24. And 60 NTR at $49.88. 60 NTR cos I was left with 40 aftt NTR bought over Potash Corp. So top up to make it 100.

Dividend yield at 5.37% for BMO and 4.74% for NTR.

While I dont tryto catch falling knives if the price is close to the support levels I see I usually will scoop some up cos that's the price I want to buy at anyway.

The coronavirus is a hoax. The cure for this problem is not containment. It is for everyone to get it. And then realize geez it only affects old people and very few die anyway. Then life goes back go normal.

I am sure this was engineered by the big players to get people to panic sell.
 

nayr69sg

Super Moderator
Staff member
SuperMod
Anyone whose dayjob is full-time trader cares to share his/her opinion?

Nowadays can short stocks. Dont own any stocks can also sell first. Then buy lower.

This is why the swings in market are so wild during crash. It is not just people actually selling stuff they have. They can sell without having the stocks!

That is rubbish in my opinion. They should ban it instead of having these so called "circuit breakers".

I mean in reality how often can you be selling anything you don't already have? Then hope to make money by buying it at a lower price? Who will buy from you in the first place when you have nothing now?

But this is where those traders come in.

Remember the banks make money during crashes by shorting too. This is why I like bank stocks. You can bet the banks also making money during these major crashes too.
 

garlic

Alfrescian (Inf)
Asset
Nowadays can short stocks. Dont own any stocks can also sell first. Then buy lower.

This is why the swings in market are so wild during crash. It is not just people actually selling stuff they have. They can sell without having the stocks!

That is rubbish in my opinion. They should ban it instead of having these so called "circuit breakers".

I mean in reality how often can you be selling anything you don't already have? Then hope to make money by buying it at a lower price? Who will buy from you in the first place when you have nothing now?

But this is where those traders come in.

Remember the banks make money during crashes by shorting too. This is why I like bank stocks. You can bet the banks also making money during these major crashes too.

I don't know, man.. i shall just stick to buying index.. all these too volatile for me...
 

Asterix

Alfrescian (Inf)
Asset
Nowadays can short stocks. Dont own any stocks can also sell first. Then buy lower.

This is why the swings in market are so wild during crash. It is not just people actually selling stuff they have. They can sell without having the stocks!

That is rubbish in my opinion. They should ban it instead of having these so called "circuit breakers".

I mean in reality how often can you be selling anything you don't already have? Then hope to make money by buying it at a lower price? Who will buy from you in the first place when you have nothing now?

But this is where those traders come in.

Remember the banks make money during crashes by shorting too. This is why I like bank stocks. You can bet the banks also making money during these major crashes too.

Short selling is a practice as old as the stock markets themselves: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Short_(finance)

Short seller has to borrow the stock from somebody, for a fee of course, before he can sell. He also has to deposit margin into his account with broker to cover potential losses from the position moving against him ie the stock go up instead of down. If the stock goes up such that the original margin is not sufficient to cover the “paper loss”, then short seller faces a margin call. If stock keeps on going up, he will get another and another margin calls.

If one views the stock market as a casino, then there is nothing wrong with short selling, it is just one of the many games that players can throw their chips at in the casino in the expectation of getting back more chips than were thrown out. Only requirement is rules are fair and transparent. For example, “naked” short selling is not allowed - ie can short sell when nude in front of computer but can’t sell unless you already have borrowed the stock.

Futures can also be sold short. Indices, commodities, currencies, etc can all be sold short via futures. There are even single stock futures for short seller in search of a new video game to play.

For retail traders, the very kind and generous casino owners have invented short ETFs ie ETFs designed such that their price will rise as the index they track falls. Video game not interesting enough? In their attempt to suck AUM (assets under management on which they earn management fees), casino owners also invented leveraged short ETFs ie if tracked index falls x%, ETF price rise 2 or 3 or whatever promised times more! … What’s the catch?
 
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