i hope trump wins the next us presidential elections

[Hypocrite-The]

ANALYSIS & OPINION
Preventing Donald Trump's re-election will take everything the Democrats have
OPINION BY BRUCE WOLPEUPDATED YESTERDAY AT 11:58AM
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PHOTO
The most unpopular president in modern American history is favoured to win re-election.
REUTERS: WIN MCNAMEE/POOL
There has never been a Donald Trump honeymoon. Nor any meaningful period of national unity under the 45th President's leadership.
He is the most unpopular president in modern American history, with poll approval ratings consistently in the low-to-mid-40s.
He has driven wedges between the United States and its two great neighbours, Canada and Mexico, and between the United States and its historic allies in Europe.
And yet, Mr Trump must be considered favoured to win re-election in 2020.

PHOTO Donald Trump being sworn in as the 45th president of the United States in 2017 as his wife Melania looks on.
AP: ANDREW HARNIKHistory is on Trump's side
In historic terms, it is very difficult to deny a sitting president a second term.
If the modern presidency can be dated from Franklin D Roosevelt, it is only Jimmy Carter, in 1980, whose party failed to hold the White House for more than one term.
That took a recession, American hostages being held in Iran for more than 400 days together with a pathetic, failed rescue attempt, and an Arab oil embargo that forced Americans to line up for months for rationed, expensive gasoline.
Mr Trump has successfully trashed the institutions of accountability — especially Congress and the mainstream press — so that he can keep his balance and control of his narrative.
In Watergate, it was a Democratic House and Senate that prosecuted Richard Nixon with investigative and impeachment hearings.

There were only three national television networks. No internet. No Fox News. No Twitter. The establishment media rendered unimpeachable verdicts.​

PHOTO Richard Nixon addresses the Watergate investigation during a White House news conference in 1973.
AP: CHARLES TASNADI
Mr Trump has also successfully trashed his political opponents. His m&d sticks better, as Hillary Clinton and the mainstream media ("the enemies of the people") have realised. And Mr Trump already has cunning aim on his most potent Democratic threats.
And the Republican Party is silent
At the same time, the Republican Party is completely supine before him.
Mr Trump engaged in a successful hostile takeover of the GOP in 2016 — and he has not looked back.
There is not one slightly credible Republican primary challenger to Mr Trump's re-nomination.
Men like John Kasich, the former Republican governor of Ohio, see no point in a challenge.

The Republican congressional leadership has collapsed into a spineless, subservient heap at Mr Trump's feet, even as he alters the party's DNA on balanced budgets, tax reform, American exceptionalism, free trade, immigration, the promotion of democracy and opposition to dictatorships.​

Those with doubts in the Republican ranks in Congress are mute — in their voices and in their votes on legislation.
Only retired Republican leaders — the Bush family and the late Senator John McCain — have been vocal in their unease.
Only one Republican member of the House has broken irrevocably with Mr Trump by calling for his impeachment.
What can the US learn from Australia?
With the Republicans united, the Democrats, with more than 20 candidates, are inevitably divided. The danger, of course, is that the Democratic nominee will be farther to the left than the country is willing to go.

Australians know from recent experience the chances of success for an opposition party with an agenda built on economic equity, social services and climate change.​

Several respected political models show Mr Trump winning next year — and their secret is the economy, which is simply the best since the last years of the Clinton presidency and since the late 1960s. Peace and prosperity are hard to beat.
And the scandals have not landed. While House Democrats may ultimately see it as their inescapable responsibility to protect their institution under the Constitution, there is no critical mass of support in the country for impeachment, and there is no prospect for conviction in the Senate.
So, what will it take to take out Trump?
A truly effective Democrat who can re-create the wave that removed Republicans from power in the House last year, who can paint a future of American restoration, unity and hope.
It will take a Democratic ticket that inspires women and voters of colour to turn up on polling day.

PHOTO A Democrats supporter cries out as Trump wins the election in 2016.
REUTERS: JASON REED
A shock decline in the economy as a result of the trade wars and the expiration of the $US2 trillion sugar hit of tax cuts and deficit spending may also assist the Democrats.
An unpopular president and a fantastic economy are one thing. A country in recession and an unpopular president are another.
History also has a message for the Democrats
Democrats may also take heart from this moment in history: In June, 1991, then-president George H W Bush, having won the Cold War and the first Iraq War, had an approval rating of nearly 70 per cent.
Scared of Mr Bush's formidable political position, a very small field of relative unknowns decided to take him on.
By the time of the election 18 months later, in the midst of the worst recession since the Depression, Mr Bush's approval had fallen to below 40 per cent, and a governor from Arkansas, Bill Clinton, won with 370 electoral votes, and 43 per cent of the popular vote in a three-way field (remember Ross Perot?).

So yes, of course Mr Trump can be beaten if the voters behind those disapproval ratings are mobilised, determined, united — and turn out.​

But looking at the field today as Mr Trump announces his re-election campaign, he has his enemies manageable if not under control, his party completely subservient, his fundraising and digital campaigns fully deployed, his base unwavering.
Mr Trump is fully competitive. It will take everything the Democrats have to beat him.
Bruce Wolpe is a non-resident senior fellow at the United States Studies Centre at the University of Sydney. He worked with Democrats in Congress during former president Barack Obama's first term, and was on the staff of former prime minister Julia Gillard.
POSTED WED AT 4:02AM

 

[laksaboy]

Trump is going to win bigly.

His people are all intelligent and beautiful.

Compare and contrast with the Dems who resist and obstruct him.

 

[ChristJohnny]

I wish Trump win also … let US v China v Russia. The rest of us can see free show and collect money.

 

[Hypocrite-The]

Donald Trump is launching his re-election campaign. A clear path to victory is forming – with a few roadblocks
ANALYSIS BY NORTH AMERICA CORRESPONDENTJAMES GLENDAY IN FLORIDAWED AT 1:51AM
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PHOTO
President Trump will this week officially announce his campaign to be re-elected in 2020.
REUTERS: CARLOS BARRIA
Donald Trump will kick off his re-election campaign in a 20,000-seat Florida arena that's famous across the United States as the home of the Orlando Magic basketball team.
He claims "over 100,000 requests" for tickets have been lodged.
Though it is Mr Trump's style to exaggerate the expected crowd size, the rally is another stark reminder of just how far the former reality TV star has come.
For a second, think back to four years and two days ago, the moment of his last campaign launch.
On June 16, 2015, the then long-shot candidate was mocked after gliding down his golden escalator to unveil his White House bid.
PauseGIF0.1 MBSettings
GIPHY:Donald Trump descending the escalator in 2015
His tirade against free trade was scorned. Mr Trump's plans for a "great, great wall" to stop Mexican drug dealers and "rapists" were derided as hot air.
But no one is dismissing him now. He starts the 2020 race with some considerable advantages.
Mr Trump has plenty of 2020 advantages
For starters, over the next 17 months Mr Trump's every word will carry with it the weight of arguably the most powerful office in the world.

Incumbency is important.​

The Trump campaign team also looks much more conventional.
It occupies an office across the river from Washington DC and reportedly has a stricter structure. Last time, it was run out of an unused corner of Trump Tower.
The changes have helped the President's team amass a huge amount of money.
As of April, the campaign and the Republican Party had roughly $US 82 million ($120 million) cash on hand. A war chest like that will fund valuable advertising and offices in key states.
EMBED:Biggest war chests of 2020's presidential candidates
Oh, and his advisers are getting a head start.
Unlike last time, when Hillary Clinton looked the heir apparent, a diverse field of 23 Democrats are about to endure a bloody battle to secure their party's nomination.
While they fight amongst themselves, the President will begin holding more and more rallies across the nation.
This election is a marathon. You can't win it in a sprint.
His team will probably spend much of their time trying to push loyal supporters to the polls, rather than trying to win over sceptical voters or moderate Democrats.
PHOTO Sebastian Gorka is "supremely confident" President Trump will win a second term.
AP: SUSAN WALSH
"The next election will be fundamentally about voter turnout," said Sebastian Gorka, a former White House advisor who now hosts a staunchly right-wing radio show.
He, like most one-eyed Trump loyalists, is "supremely confident" the President will win re-election.
"It's not a question of just his record, it's will the GOP [Republican Party] and will the President manage to get the people who have done so well across America, across all classes, to actually vote?"
The President's re-election is not a sure thing
Having outlined Mr Trump's advantages, it's worth stressing that this far out from election day a second term is certainly no slam dunk.
The maligned American polling industry offers a lot of hope for the Democrats and many in the party are very confident of toppling the President.
His personal approval ratings have been stuck in the high thirties and low forties for most of his term, while his disapproval ratings have hovered in the low fifties.
PHOTO Trump's 2016 path to electoral victory may no longer be available to him in 2020.
REUTERS: CARLOS BARRIA
Much is also being made of leaked polling showing Mr Trump faces an uphill battle in several key states.
In 2016, he won Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin by small margins — a combined 77,000 votes.
The electoral college system used to pick a US President is complex but the maths is pretty simple.

If Mr Trump loses all three of those key states and everything else remains the same, he'll dip below the 270 electoral college votes required to win.​

EMBED:Tracking Trump's approval rating in the crucial state of Wisconsin
So there has been plenty of chatter the President's team could try to expand the electoral map and find alternative pathways to victory.
Reports suggest Republican strategists could try to turn states like New Mexico, New Hampshire, Nevada and Minnesota from blue to red to give themselves more wiggle room.
Florida, which is the largest swing state with 29 electoral college votes, is a huge focus for both parties.
It will be vital for the President to hold if he's to win four more years, and that's why it's the location for his official launch.
Much will depend on Trump's Democratic opponent
PHOTO Democrats including Elizabeth Warren, Kamala Harris, Pete Buttigieg and Cory Booker want to be the nominee to run against Trump.
REUTERS/AP
Of course, ultimately Mr Trump's fate will depend a bit on what the Democrats do.
Will they try to impeach him? Will they pick a moderate candidate, like Joe Biden, who may appeal to the middle ground? Or do they go for a socialist firebrand, someone who will get vocal, energetic activists to the polls?
And after what promises to be a divisive primary, will the party actually unite and swing in behind the winner?
PHOTO Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez warned Democrats they could lose to President Trump in 2020.


REUTERS: CARLOS BARRIA
It was interesting to see high profile Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez raising the spectre of a 2020 election defeat publicly.

"I think that we have a very real risk of losing the presidency to Donald Trump if we do not have a presidential candidate that is fighting for true transformational change in the lives of working people in the United States," she warned in an interview with ABC America on Sunday.​

Election predictions, as we've learned in recent years, are a mug's game — even more so, 500-odd days out from polling day.
A lot can and will change between now and then.
But as Mr Trump fires the unofficial starting gun for the 2020 campaign, it's worth remembering he's in a better position now than when he first launched his successful White House tilt four years and two days ago.

 

[Hypocrite-The]