How to gerrymander for GE2016??

[Sideswipe]

Yes. Given the tide against them, gerrymander or mandergerry also no use.

gerrymandering is an art form. skilled gerrymandering might mean the difference between pap holding a simple majority in parliament or a 2/3 majority.

 

[Bigfuck]

At 40% opposition votes, it is very difficult to gerrymander. If the odds tip against them, 2011 could have seen 20 seats in parliament. If the opposition votes go up to 45%, 25 seats in parliament is not a problem. The only 2 solutions are extra ballot boxes and more new citizens. The bitch for the former is get caught and it will be civil war. The latter is new citizens are going against Leegime faster and faster after getting green cards as they find they have been shortchanged.

 

[CPT (NS) BRANDON]

Re-group the whole of Singapore into just 4 GRCs.

North GRC, South GRC, East GRC and West GRC.

Each to have a minimum of 22 candidates, of which 5 must be minorities, 2 must be former civil servants, 1 must be from NTUC, and 1 must be ex-military with rank of COL or above.

Each GRC to be helmed by super heavyweights.

North GRC: Lee Hsien Loong, Khaw Boon Wan and Tony Tan (come out of retirement)

South GRC: Lee Kuan Yew and Chan Chun Sing

East GRC: Goh Chok Tong, Teo Chee Hean

West GRC: Tharman Shanmugaratnam, Ng Eng Hen

Deposit for each GRC: $1 million

 

[Bigfuck]

Re-group the whole of Singapore into just 4 GRCs.

North GRC, South GRC, East GRC and West GRC.

Each to have a minimum of 22 candidates, of which 5 must be minorities, 2 must be former civil servants, 1 must be from NTUC, and 1 must be ex-military with rank of COL or above.

Each GRC to be helmed by super heavyweights.

North GRC: Lee Hsien Loong, Khaw Boon Wan and Tony Tan (come out of retirement)

South GRC: Lee Kuan Yew and Chan Chun Sing

East GRC: Goh Chok Tong, Teo Chee Hean

West GRC: Tharman Shanmugaratnam, Ng Eng Hen

Deposit for each GRC: $1 million

Do that and you will see parangs, choppers and knives coming. Leegime will need to drive around in armored cars.

 

[steffychun]

Do that and you will see parangs, choppers and knives coming. Leegime will need to drive around in armored cars.

Lots of NSFs will then kill their COs first.

 

[CPT (NS) BRANDON]

Do that and you will see parangs, choppers and knives coming. Leegime will need to drive around in armored cars.

That is not really likely to happen.

Singaporeans will never take to the streets in protest.

We are too cowed and too submissive. It's the way we've been indoctrinated over the years.

People will voice their frustrations online but don't expect them to take to the streets in protest like in mature democracies. That is the reason why the SDP failed to gain any traction, and instead were made to appear like fools.

People will vote against the PAP but can they afford to do so when there are only 4 mega-GRCs and the voters are made to feel that their livelihood is at risk?

 

[sleaguepunter]

Their gerrymeandering in 2016 could be to carve out SMCs from existing GRCs instead of the other way round.
To avoid losing too many seats at one go.

if pinkie have enough grey matter in his head, he should chop off the canerous aka pro oppositions area into smc. with a bit more smc available, all opposition parties will behave like flies attract to rotting flesh, all will go in, especially the bigwig of the parties will have a go at smc instead of helming the grc teams, leaving the grc to inexperience and unknown opposition candidates. then will so many bigwig contesting against each other at the smc available, pap may have the chance to retain the seat as opposition votes will be diluted.

if i in charge of planning for pap in the east, i will chop up pasir ris grc, basically forsaking everything south of tpe/sle, merge pasir ris-tampines-east coast into 2 GRCs. any part inside east coast that is pro-wp be turn into smc and merge joo chiat into marine parade while chop off MP's serangoon division into smc. by chopping of serangoon division from MP, both nsp and wp will contest for the seat and so pap will have a good chance of retaining the seat while also retain joo chiat. this way, pap can secure most of east coast while risking only those areas in sengkang, which anyway will have to be seperate from pasir ris punggol grc due to increase in population in punggol area. i would rather lose 3-4 seats than having the seat of pap hq lose to wp.

 

[Fook Seng]

In the UK commonwealth citizens are allowed to vote. PAP may try that

I don't think they are allowed to vote in the national general election, only in the local election for the local administration (roughly equivalent to our town councils).

 

[steffychun]

I don't think they are allowed to vote in the national general election, only in the local election for the local administration (roughly equivalent to our town councils).

Nope general elections, local and EU. Beat that.

http://www.aboutmyvote.co.uk/who_can_register_to_vote.aspx

 

[scroobal]

It has gone beyond the point of gerrymandering. The issue is island-wide. There is no longer a stronghold as we know it.

Even in their strongest ward, all it takes is a very good candidate from a good opposition party and their hold becomes shaky.

There are 2 main factors that will protect the PAP government. The first is the quality of good opposition candidates. The need and the appetite for voting in the proverbial bicycle thieves are now immensely reduced. Quality will become top of mind. But it will not be the PAP quality such as parachuting scholars. The second is the psychological 2/3rd majority mark which is 60 seats (round number) out o 87 seats. Generally a conservative society where mandates from heaven is in the psyche, caution will be in the air. As this mark is approached, the quality expected out of the opposition candidate will be higher than that of the PAP candidate. The country needs a government and WP cannot form the govt.

 

[steffychun]

It has gone beyond the point of gerrymandering. The issue is island-wide. There is no longer a stronghold as we know it.

Even in their strongest ward, all it takes is a very good candidate from a good opposition party and their hold becomes shaky.

There are 2 main factors that will protect the PAP government. The first is the quality of good opposition candidates. The need and the appetite for voting in the proverbial bicycle thieves are now immensely reduced. Quality will become top of mind. But it will not be the PAP quality such as parachuting scholars. The second is the psychological 2/3rd majority mark which is 60 seats (round number) out o 87 seats. Generally a conservative society where mandates from heaven is in the psyche, caution will be in the air. As this mark is approached, the quality expected out of the opposition candidate will be higher than that of the PAP candidate. The country needs a government and WP cannot form the govt.

Agree WP cannot form a govt as it has no PM style leader (again not that LHL is one). WP also has no clear division of labour: who deals with which matter and thus has no clear list of who can be an alternative minister.

The only gave they can play well is turn the colours

 

[The_Hypocrite]

Good analysis,,and you just let the cat out of the bag and we will forever be under PAP tyranny,,but also lets look at the main oppo parties,,

1. WP
2. NSP
3. SDP

the rest are all lightweights and basically just a bunch of jokers,,,,if these 3 parties can work together in avoiding 3 cornered fights,,,its fine,,but all in all,,as an anti pap person and a pro opposition,,,I will support WP 1st. Lets admit it,,WP is the only credible opposition party,,they have great electoral appeal, they have shown to be competent and has put the people 1st in its running of town councils,,

They are putting the PAP to shame,,and WP is the type of oppo that singapore wants. SDP confirm are those left wing liberal bullshitters that singaporeans hate as singkies have seen what this sort of shit has destroyed ang mor lands,,,

NSP is like a child that is just an oppo,,,no ideology etc,,just being an oppo,,

So if WP steps in to which ever GRC they will command greater share of oppo votes,,,I think WP should be given priority in what ever seats it wants to contest.

Also I think SIngaporeans are changing,,,if there is a multi corner fight,,and I learnt it from the PE as well,,I will vote for the oppo party that will win,,not for my favored candidate.. in the PE I like TJS,,he was the one that came out harshly against the PAP,,but he could not win as TCB was more popular and more mass appeal. So I should have voted TCB as he was highly likely to win.

And we see it in this by erection,,the light weight oppos got less votes as many know to vote for the winning oppo candidate. I dont like some left wing shit that LLL sprouts,,but I wont vote for the other 2 clowns as PAP win will be worse,,

I think and hope more singaporeans see that,,hence other oppos who fight with WP should know that and back out

if pinkie have enough grey matter in his head, he should chop off the canerous aka pro oppositions area into smc. with a bit more smc available, all opposition parties will behave like flies attract to rotting flesh, all will go in, especially the bigwig of the parties will have a go at smc instead of helming the grc teams, leaving the grc to inexperience and unknown opposition candidates. then will so many bigwig contesting against each other at the smc available, pap may have the chance to retain the seat as opposition votes will be diluted.

if i in charge of planning for pap in the east, i will chop up pasir ris grc, basically forsaking everything south of tpe/sle, merge pasir ris-tampines-east coast into 2 GRCs. any part inside east coast that is pro-wp be turn into smc and merge joo chiat into marine parade while chop off MP's serangoon division into smc. by chopping of serangoon division from MP, both nsp and wp will contest for the seat and so pap will have a good chance of retaining the seat while also retain joo chiat. this way, pap can secure most of east coast while risking only those areas in sengkang, which anyway will have to be seperate from pasir ris punggol grc due to increase in population in punggol area. i would rather lose 3-4 seats than having the seat of pap hq lose to wp.

 

[wwabbit]

Even in their strongest ward, all it takes is a very good candidate from a good opposition party and their hold becomes shaky.

Didn't even take them a good candidate to lose Punggol East... in fact she was the least qualified candidate out of the 4.

 

[biondi]

I doubt they can gerrymander anymore, esp in the east. WP influence is growing rapidly there, going by the results of the BE. I had friends who live in the east clamoring for WP to compete in their GRC in 2016 on their fb status. There might even be a chance that PAP will scrapped the GRC system after 2016 GE, not because the GRC system was unethical to begin with, but PAP will end up losing more seats just because of one unpopular person inside a GRC.

 

[wwabbit]

Gerrymandering is always possible as long as per-precinct results are available - and they are available to the counting agents. For the PAP, it will no longer be about preventing seats from being lost, but to reduce the number of seats being lost. First, if they can identify a group of precincts where the opposition is very strong (55%+), they can create an SMC in that area. So they lose an SMC there, but they can dilute the precincts that leans slightly to the opposition (50-54%) by grouping them with strong PAP supporting precincts.

There is already a lot of research out there on how to optimize the redistricting to favor one party over the other in the US based on the past voting results per-precinct, and it is all quite applicable to here.

 

[sleaguepunter]

Good analysis,,and you just let the cat out of the bag and we will forever be under PAP tyranny,,but also lets look at the main oppo parties,,

u know it, i know it and i sure ppl in pap also know it but can they do it? not many ppl accept the logic of "lose little consider win" concept. so is pinkie a stalin "defend to the last man" or tsar peter the great, "scorched earth" method. we will see in next GE.

 

[Sideswipe]

Gerrymandering is always possible as long as per-precinct results are available - and they are available to the counting agents. For the PAP, it will no longer be about preventing seats from being lost, but to reduce the number of seats being lost. First, if they can identify a group of precincts where the opposition is very strong (55%+), they can create an SMC in that area. So they lose an SMC there, but they can dilute the precincts that leans slightly to the opposition (50-54%) by grouping them with strong PAP supporting precincts.

There is already a lot of research out there on how to optimize the redistricting to favor one party over the other in the US based on the past voting results per-precinct, and it is all quite applicable to here.

a election result like PAP 45% votes, 70% of parliament could happen. skilled gerrymandering is absolutely important.

 

[aurvandil]

It 2016, there are still strongholds. Ang Mo Kio, Toa Payoh and the other early HDB estates which have significant concentrations of pre-65. It is only by 2021 that there will be no more strongholds because of mortality claiming the pre-65.

In GE 2011, the Opposition did quite poorly in the West, giving rise to the perception that the West is some kind of PAP stronghold. The truth of the matter is that there were no parties and candidates of quality in the West in GE 2011. The West is ripe for some sharp electoral shocks if the Opposition can field some quality candidates there.

It has gone beyond the point of gerrymandering. The issue is island-wide. There is no longer a stronghold as we know it.

Even in their strongest ward, all it takes is a very good candidate from a good opposition party and their hold becomes shaky.

There are 2 main factors that will protect the PAP government. The first is the quality of good opposition candidates. The need and the appetite for voting in the proverbial bicycle thieves are now immensely reduced. Quality will become top of mind. But it will not be the PAP quality such as parachuting scholars. The second is the psychological 2/3rd majority mark which is 60 seats (round number) out o 87 seats. Generally a conservative society where mandates from heaven is in the psyche, caution will be in the air. As this mark is approached, the quality expected out of the opposition candidate will be higher than that of the PAP candidate. The country needs a government and WP cannot form the govt.

 

[Simbian]

Take a look at how Republicans in the US have gerrymandered their way to a House majority in the US elections and you will understand that this can still be done.

Of course, you might end up with seemingly random and disconnected neighbourhoods enjoined together to form a SMC / GRC. Imagine parts with Tampines enjoined with parts of Boon Lay and parts of Ang Mo Kio...

 

[alternativemediarocks]

Now LHL had a big problem of how to gerrymander for 2016. Will he group Aljunied, Hougang and Punggol East into 2 GRC, and conveniently push the former-chengsan and joo chiat into these area, so as to wall-off the contagion?? It is very hard for AMK and marine parade to swallow up, esp East Coast is already very shaky.

I would think they have some statistical fine records for which blocks ( of residential) voted for which party. Strategizing on how to carve them up to fine parcels to their advantage then would be easier. How else can one arrive at an explanation that a party that gathers 60% of the common votes gets to control 90% of the country / parliament?
Won't be surprise if we get some strange GRCs and SMCs in GE 2016